A method for small-area estimation of population mortality in settings affected by crises

A high density of ultra-processed food, alcohol & tobacco retail stores, and social inequalities are associated with higher mortality rates of non-communicable diseases in Mexican adults: 2005 to 2021

BACKGROUND

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the leading causes of mortality in Mexico. Factors contributing to NCDs-related deaths may vary across small geographic areas such as municipalities. We aimed to predict municipal-level factors associated with NCD mortality in Mexican adults from 2005 to 2021 using the small-area analysis (SSA) approach.

METHODS

We gathered data on population sociodemographic, access to healthcare services, and mortality records at the municipal-level from census and public institutions from 2005 to 2021. We identified municipal predictors of NCDs mortality rates (MR) using negative binomial regression models.

RESULTS

A total of 584,052 observations of Mexican adults were analyzed. The national expected NCDs MR per 100,000 inhabitants was 210.7 (95%CI: 196.1-226.7) in 2005 and increased to 322.4 (95%CI: 300.3-346.4) by 2021. Predictors of NCDs mortality (quintile 5 vs. quintile 1) included; indigeneity (IRR = 1.15, 95%CI: 1.12-1.19), poverty (IRR = 1.14, 95%CI: 1.13-1.15), affiliation with Mexican Social Security Institute (IRR = 1.11, 95%CI: 1.09-1.14), households with television (IRR = 1.14, 95%CI: 1.11-1.17), and high density of ultra-processed food, alcohol & tobacco retail stores (IRR = 1.15, 95%CI: 1.13-1.17). The greatest increases in MR were observed in municipalities from Oaxaca (>200% increments).

CONCLUSION

There was an overall increase in NCDs MR from 2005 to 2021, with a significant geographic variation among Mexican municipalities. The results of this study highlight the importance of identifying priority areas in the country that urgently require public policies focused on local factors associated with deaths from NCDs, such as the regulation of the ultra-processed food, alcohol & tobacco retail stores, and efforts to reduce social inequalities.

The Casualties of War: An Excess Mortality Estimate of Lives Lost in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

Who and how many died in the 2020 Karabakh War? With limited evidence provided by authorities, media outlets, and human rights organizations, still little is known about the death toll caused by the 44-day conflict in and around Nagorno-Karabakh. This paper provides a first assessment of the human cost of the war. Using age-sex vital registration data from Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the de facto Republic of Artsakh/Nagorno-Karabakh, we difference the 2020 observed mortality values from expected deaths based on trends in mortality between 2015 and 2019 to offer sensible estimates of excess mortality resulting from the conflict. We compare and contrast our findings with neighboring peaceful countries with similar mortality patterns and socio-cultural background and discuss them against the backdrop of the concurrent first wave of Covid-19. We estimate that the war led to almost 6,500 excess deaths among people aged 15-49. Nearly 2,800 excess losses occurred in Armenia, 3,400 in Azerbaijan, and 310 in de facto Artsakh. Deaths were highly concentrated among late adolescent and young adult males, suggesting that most excess mortality was directly related to combat. Beyond the human tragedy, for small countries like Armenia and Azerbaijan, such loss of young men represents a considerable long-term cost for future demographic, economic, and social development.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11113-023-09790-2.

Inferring the impact of humanitarian responses on population mortality: methodological problems and proposals

Reducing excess population mortality caused by crises due to armed conflict and natural disasters is an existential aim of humanitarian assistance, but the extent to which these deaths are averted in different humanitarian responses is mostly unknown. This information gap arguably weakens governance and accountability. This paper considers methodological challenges involved in making inferences about humanitarian assistance's effect on excess mortality, and outlines proposed approaches. Three possible measurement questions, each of which contributes some inferential evidence, are presented: (1) whether mortality has remained within an acceptable range during the crisis (for which different direct estimation options are presented); (2) whether the humanitarian response is sufficiently appropriate and performant to avert excess mortality (a type of contribution analysis requiring in-depth audits of the design of humanitarian services and of their actual availability, coverage and quality); and (3) the actual extent to which humanitarian assistance has reduced excess deaths (potentially the most complex question to answer, requiring application of causal thinking and careful specification of the exposure, and for which either quasi-experimental statistical modelling approaches or a combination of verbal and social autopsy methods are proposed). The paper concludes by considering possible 'packages' of the above methods that could be implemented at different stages of a humanitarian response, and calls for investment in improved methods and actual measurement.