Prediction of hepatic necroinflammatory activity in patients with chronic hepatitis B by a simple noninvasive model

Development and validation of prognostic nomograms in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: a population-based study

Background: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most common malignant tumors. The existing staging system has a limited budget capacity for HCC recurrence. The authors aimed to establish and verify two nomogram models to predict disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) in patients with HCC. Methods: Patients diagnosed with HCC between August 2011 and March 2016 were recruited. Data were randomly divided into a training cohort and a validation cohort. Based on univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis, independent risk factors for DFS and OS were identified, and two nomogram models were established to predict patient survival. Results: Sex, tumor size, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage, tumor capsule, macrovascular invasion, AST-to-platelet ratio index, AST-to-lymphocyte ratio index, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) were used to build the nomogram for DFS, while age, tumor size, BCLC stage, tumor capsule, macrovascular invasion, systemic immune-inflammation index, AST, total bilirubin and AFP were used to build the nomogram for OS. Calibration curves showed good agreement between the nomogram prediction and actual observation. C-indices in both nomograms were significantly higher than BCLC. Conclusion: The two nomograms improved the accuracy of individualized prediction of DFS and OS, which may help doctors screen patients with a high risk of recurrence to formulate individualized treatment plans.

The Importance of Transaminases Flare in Liver Elastography: Characterization of the Probability of Liver Fibrosis Overestimation by Hepatitis C Virus-Induced Cytolysis

BACKGROUND

Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) is crucial for appropriate fibrosis staging in patients with ongoing hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. However, there is still an ongoing debate on the impact of serum transaminases (aspartate-aminotransferase, AST; alanine-aminotransferase, ALT) on LSM.

METHODS

We selected 110 patients undergoing HCV eradication therapy with LSM compatible with significant liver fibrosis. LSM was evaluated prior to therapy and one year after HCV eradication.

RESULTS

LSM showed a median decrease of 35% from baseline values, and 67 (61%) patients showed posttreatment values compatible with lower fibrosis stages. We developed two logistic regression models to determine the probability of liver fibrosis overestimation according to serum transaminase. The probability of overestimation of two or more fibrosis grade is equal to (1) 50% for AST of 99 IU/L (2.2 ULN) and ALT of 90.5 IU/L (2 ULN), (2) 80% for AST of 123.5 IU/L (2.74 ULN) and ALT of 101.5 IU/L (2.25 ULN), and (3) reaches 100% for AST of 211 IU/L (4.7 ULN) and ALT of 140 IU/L (3.1 ULN).

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights the impact of serum transaminases on LSM. We believe that our findings may serve as a reference point for appropriate fibrosis stratification by liver elastography in patients with HCV infection.