Validation of the graded prognostic assessment for lung cancer with brain metastases using molecular markers (lung-molGPA)

External validation of the lung-molGPA to predict survival in patients treated with stereotactic radiotherapy for brain metastases of non-small cell lung cancer

BACKGROUND

In the era of personalized medicine, individualized prognostic models with tumor characteristics are needed to inform patients about survival. Before clinical use, external validation of such models by an independent group is needed. An updated version of the graded prognostic assessment (GPA) estimates survival in patients with brain metastases (BMs) of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). This is the first external validation of the updated Lung-molGPA in patients treated with stereotactic radiotherapy (SRT) for one or more BMs.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Patients treated with SRT for BMs from NSCLC adenocarcinoma were retrospectively included. GPA score was calculated for each patient based on six prognostic factors including age, Karnofsky Performance Status, number of BMs, extracranial metastases, EGFR/ALK status, and PD-L1 expression. Kaplan-Meier analysis evaluated survival probability. Impact of individual prognostic factors on survival was assessed by univariate and multivariate analyses using the Cox proportional hazard model. Predictive performance was evaluated using discrimination (C-statistic) and calibration (Brier test).

RESULTS

The cohort (n = 241) was divided into four prognostic groups. Overall median survival was 15 months. Predicted and observed median survival were similar between the original and validation cohorts, apart from the most favorable prognostic group. With adequate C-statistics and Brier scores, the Lung-molGPA provided accurate survival predictions.

CONCLUSION

The Lung-molGPA accurately predicted survival in our European population, except for an overestimation of survival in the small most favorable prognostic group. This prognostic model was externally validated and is therefore useful for counseling of patients with BMs of NSCLC adenocarcinoma.

Validation of the Lung-Mol Graded Prognostic Assessment (GPA) System for the Prognosis of Patients Receiving Radiotherapy for Brain Metastasis From Non-small Cell Lung Cancer

PURPOSE

The Lung-mol graded prognostic assessment (GPA) system predicts the prognosis of patients with brain metastases (BM) from non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) separately for adenocarcinoma and non-adenocarcinoma. This study aimed to validate the Lung-molGPA system using a cohort of patients in our institution who received radiotherapy for BM.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Three hundred and thirty-nine patients with NSCLC who received their first course of radiotherapy for BM were included in the analysis. Among them, 65 received their second course of radiotherapy for BM. Data on sex, age, Karnofsky performance status (KPS), extracranial metastases (ECM), number of BM, histological type, and gene mutations were collected according to the Lung-molGPA system. We examined the validity of the scores assigned to the factors included in the Lung-molGPA system, separately for adenocarcinoma and non-adenocarcinoma. In addition, we validated the Lung-molGPA system to predict survival during both the first and second courses of radiotherapy.

RESULTS

The factors in the Lung-molGPA were significantly associated with survival, except for age in non-adenocarcinoma with marginal significance. Regarding discrimination ability, the C-indices were 0.65 and 0.69 for adenocarcinoma and non-adenocarcinoma, respectively, in the first course of radiotherapy for BM, while those in the second course were 0.62 and 0.74, respectively. Survival prediction by Lung-molGPA was almost consistent with actual survival in the first course of radiotherapy, except for the score of 0-1.0 in both histologies and 2.5-3.0 in non-adenocarcinoma. In the second course of radiotherapy, median survival could be predicted for some patients with adenocarcinoma.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study confirms the validity of Lung-molGPA for the estimation of median survival based on patient characteristics at the time of initiation of radiotherapy for patients in the first course of radiotherapy and shows that it may be applicable to patients with adenocarcinoma in the second course of radiotherapy.

Validation of the ALK-Brain Prognostic Index for patients with ALK-rearranged lung cancer and brain metastases

BACKGROUND

Brain metastases (BMs) are a key challenge in the management of anaplastic lymphoma kinase-rearranged non-small-cell lung cancer (ALK+ NSCLC), but prognostic scores are complicated or rely on data before the era of tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs). This study aimed to validate the novel ALK-Brain Prognostic Index (ALK-BPI), which was originally proposed based on 44 TKI-treated ALK+ NSCLC patients from Karolinska University Hospital, using an external clinical cohort.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

TKI-treated ALK+ NSCLC patients with BM from Heidelberg (n = 82, cohort 1) were retrospectively analyzed alone and together with the original Karolinska cohort (n = 126, cohort 2). Cox regression models were used to determine the association of clinical variables and scores with overall survival (OS) after BM diagnosis (BM-related OS).

RESULTS

Both cohorts showed a similar median age (58 years), roughly balanced sex distributions (52%-56% females), and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (PS) 0-2 for most patients (87%-92%) at the time of BM development, which were present already at initial diagnosis in 36%-38% of the patients. Most patients had received next-generation ALK inhibitors (54%-63%), while 55%-56% of patients did not receive any radiotherapy. The ALK-BPI identified poor-risk patients (i.e. featuring ≥ 2/3 risk factors: PS > 2, male sex, development of BM after initial diagnosis) with a significantly shorter BM-related OS than other patients in both cohorts: 32/82 in cohort 1 with 21.3 versus 62.2 months in median [hazard ratio (HR) = 2.5, P < 0.001]; 59/126 in cohort 2 with 23.1 versus 67.2 months in median (HR = 2.6, P < 0.001). The five-parameter Lung-molGPA score did not achieve statistical significance and/or clear prognostic separation in all four groups, while the Disease-Specific Graded Prognostic Assessment score did not show consistent results.

CONCLUSIONS

The ALK-BPI is a reliable tool for easy prognostic dichotomization of TKI-treated ALK+ NSCLC patients with BM in daily clinical practice, without the complexity of previous models.

Development and adaptations of the Graded Prognostic Assessment (GPA) scale: a systematic review

The Graded Prognostic Assessment (GPA) score has the best accuracy among prognostic scales for patients with brain metastases (BM). A wide range of GPA-derived scales have been established to different types of primary tumor BM. However, there is a high variability between them, and their characteristics have not been described altogether yet. We aim to summarize the features of the existent GPA-derived scales and to compare their predictor factors and their uses in clinical setting. Medline was searched from inception until January 2023 to identify studies related to the development, update, or validation of GPA. The initial search yielded 1,083 results. 16 original studies and 16 validation studies were included, comprising a total of 33,348 patients. 13 different scales were assessed, including: GPA, Diagnosis-Specific GPA, Extracranial Score, Lung-molGPA, Updated Renal GPA, Updated Gastrointestinal GPA, Modified Breast GPA, Integrated Melanoma GPA, Melanoma Mol GPA, Sarcoma GPA, Hepatocellular Carcinoma GPA, Colorectal Cancer GPA, and Uterine Cancer GPA. The most prevalent prognostic predictors were age, Karnofsky Performance Status, number of BM, and presence or absence of extracranial metastases. Treatment modalities consisted of whole brain radiation therapy, stereotactic radiosurgery, surgery, cranial radiotherapy, gamma knife radiosurgery, and BRAF inhibitor therapy. Median survival rates with no treatment and with a specific treatment ranged from 6.1 weeks to 33 months and from 3.1 to 21 months, respectively. Original GPA and GPA-derived scales are valid prognostic tools, but with heterogeneous survival results when compared to each other. More studies are needed to improve scientific evidence of these scales.

Brain metastases in Japanese NSCLC patients: prognostic assessment and the use of osimertinib and immune checkpoint inhibitors-retrospective study

BACKGROUND

The Graded Prognostic Assessment for lung cancer using molecular markers (Lung-molGPA) has not been validated for use with Japanese non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients with brain metastasis (BM) and the factors impacting survival need to be assessed.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 294 NSCLC patients who were newly diagnosed with BM between 2013 and 2020 and had received radiotherapy for BM initially at the Hokkaido Cancer Center. We evaluated the effect on the prognosis of Lung-molGPA items, the expression of PD-L1 (classified as high, low, and no expression), and the treatment history. The main outcome was the survival measured from the day of the diagnosis of BM, and log-rank tests were performed to evaluate the results.

RESULTS

The median overall survival (OS) times for adenocarcinoma by groups of GPA scores (0‒1.0, 1.5‒2.0, 2.5‒3.0, and 3.5‒4.0) were 5.5, 14.8, 28.3, and 39.0 months (p < 0.0001), respectively. The median survival times for non-adenocarcinoma by groups of GPA scores (0‒1.0, 1.5‒2.0, and 2.5‒3.0) were 3.2, 11.0, and 16.0 months (p = 0.0011), respectively. In adenocarcinoma patients with gene mutations, osimertinib significantly improved the outcome (median OS: 34.2 and 17.6 months with and without osimertinib, respectively (p = 0.0164)). There was no significant difference in the OS between patients who were initially treated with tyrosine-kinase inhibitor for BM and those who initially received radiotherapy (p = 0.5337). In patients tested for PD-L1 expression, the median survival times after the diagnosis of BM were 5.6, 22.5, and 9.3 months for the high-, low- and no-expression groups (p = 0.2198), respectively. Also, in patients with high PD-L1 expressions, those with ICI had survival (median OS, 8.6 months) than those without (median OS, 3.6 months).

CONCLUSIONS

We confirmed that Lung-molGPA successfully classified Japanese NSCLC patients with BM by the prognosis. Osimertinib prolonged survival of EGFR-positive NSCLC patients with BM, and ICI was effective in patients with high PD-L1 expressions.

External Validation of the Graded Prognostic Assessment in Patients with Brain Metastases from Small Cell Lung Cancer

BACKGROUND

Recently, graded prognostic assessment (GPA) for small cell lung cancer (SCLC) patients with brain metastases has been developed. This includes age, performance status, number of brain metastases and presence of extracranial metastases. The aim of the present study was to validate this four-tiered prognostic score in a European cohort of patients.

METHODS

The retrospective validation study included 180 patients from two centers in Germany and Norway.

RESULTS

Median survival from radiological diagnosis of brain metastases was 7 months. The GPA point sum as continuous variable (0-4 points) was significantly associated with survival (p < 0.001). However, no significant survival difference was observed between patients in the two strata with better survival (3.5-4 and 2.5-3 points, respectively). Long-term survival in the poor prognosis group (0-1 points) was better than expected.

CONCLUSION

This study supports the prognostic impact of all four parameters contributing to the GPA. The original way of grouping the parameters and breaking the final strata did not give optimal results in this cohort. Therefore, additional validation databases from different countries should be created and evaluated.

Predictors of Lung Adenocarcinoma With Leptomeningeal Metastases: A 2022 Targeted-Therapy-Assisted molGPA Model

Objective

To explore prognostic indicators of lung adenocarcinoma with leptomeningeal metastases (LM) and provide an updated graded prognostic assessment model integrated with molecular alterations (molGPA).

Methods

A cohort of 162 patients was enrolled from 202 patients with lung adenocarcinoma and LM. By randomly splitting data into the training (80%) and validation (20%) sets, the Cox regression and random survival forest methods were used on the training set to identify statistically significant variables and construct a prognostic model. The C-index of the model was calculated and compared with that of previous molGPA models.

Results

The Cox regression and random forest models both identified four variables, which included KPS, LANO neurological assessment, TKI therapy line, and controlled primary tumor, as statistically significant predictors. A novel targeted-therapy-assisted molGPA model (2022) using the above four prognostic factors was developed to predict LM of lung adenocarcinoma. The C-indices of this prognostic model in the training and validation sets were higher than those of the lung-molGPA (2017) and molGPA (2019) models.

Conclusions

The 2022 molGPA model, a substantial update of previous molGPA models with better prediction performance, may be useful in clinical decision making and stratification of future clinical trials.

Low Heart Rate Variability Predicts Poor Overall Survival of Lung Cancer Patients With Brain Metastases

Background

The aim of this prospective study was to evaluate the association between heart rate variability (HRV) and overall survival of lung cancer patients with brain metastases (LCBM).

Methods

Fifty-six LCBM patients were enrolled in this study. Five-minute electrocardiograms were collected before the time to first brain radiotherapy. HRV was analyzed quantitatively by using the time domain parameters, i.e., the standard deviation of all normal-normal intervals (SDNN) and the root mean square of successive differences (RMSSD). Survival time for LCBM patients was defined as from the date of HRV testing to the date of death or the last follow-up.

Results

In the univariate analysis, SDNN ≤ 13 ms (P = 0.003) and RMSSD ≤ 4.8 ms (P = 0.014) significantly predicted poor survival. Multivariate analysis confirmed that RMSSD ≤ 4.8 ms (P = 0.013, hazard ratio = 3.457, 95% confidence interval = 1.303–9.171) was also an independent negative prognostic factor after adjusting for mean heart rate, Karnofsky performance status, and number of brain metastases in LCBM patients.

Conclusion

Decreased RMSSD is independently associated with shorter survival time in LCBM patients. HRV might be a novel predictive biomarker for LCBM prognosis.

Primary systemic therapy for patients with brain metastases from lung cancer ineligible for targeted agents

Purpose

The purpose of this study was to evaluate overall survival after systemic therapy, largely chemotherapy, in patients with small cell or non-small cell lung cancer and brain metastases. After completion of systemic therapy, some patients received planned brain irradiation, while others were followed.

Methods

Retrospective cohort study.

Results

Thirty-eight patients were included (28 small cell, 20 followed with imaging). Six of these 20 patients (30%) received delayed radiotherapy during follow-up. Planned radiotherapy (n = 18, intention-to-treat) was associated with longer survival from diagnosis of brain metastases, median 10.8 versus 6.1 months, p = 0.025. Delayed radiotherapy still resulted in numerically better survival than no radiotherapy at all (median 8.8 versus 5.3 months, not significant). If calculated from the start of delayed radiotherapy, median survival was only 2.7 months. In a multivariable analysis, both Karnofsky performance status ≥ 70 (p = 0.03) and planned radiotherapy (p = 0.05) were associated with better survival.

Conclusion

In patients ineligible for targeted agents, planned radiotherapy in a modern treatment setting was associated with longer survival compared to no radiotherapy. Timing and type of radiotherapy in such patients should be evaluated in prospective trials to identify patients who might not need planned radiotherapy.

Changing characteristics, treatment approaches and survival of patients with brain metastasis: data from six thousand and thirty-one individuals over an observation period of 30 years

BACKGROUND

An accurate classification of patients with brain metastases (BMs) is an important foundation to guide individualised treatment decisions and to formulate BM cohorts for modern clinical trials.

METHODS

Six thousand and thirty-one patients with newly diagnosed BM from different solid tumours treated between 1986 and 2020 were identified from the Vienna Brain Metastasis Registry.

RESULTS

A rising fraction of patients presented with asymptomatic BM during the observation period (1986-1999: 20.2% vs 2010-2020: 30.6%; p < 0.001). Especially, oncogene-addicted non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and BRAF (v-Raf murine sarcoma viral oncogene homolog)-positive melanoma had a higher rate of asymptomatic BM presentation compared with wild-type tumours (p < 0.05). Significant changes of initial BM treatment approaches were observed with a decrease of neurosurgical procedures (1986-1999: 30.8% vs 2010-2020: 19.5%) and an increase of radiation treatments (1986-1999: 65.0% vs 2010-2020: 73.3%) and systemic therapies (1986-1999: 1.0% vs 2010-2020: 2.0%; p < 0.001). Median overall survival (OS) was heterogeneous between primary tumour entities but with an overall increase over the decades (median OS 1986-1999: 5 months vs 2010-2020: 7 months; p = 0.001). Survival times were longer in patients with oncogene-addicted NSCLC, BRAF-positive melanoma and hormone receptor-positive breast cancer compared with the other cancer subtypes (p > 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Our data highlight shifting trends in the symptomatic presentation and in treatment strategies of patients with BM over the last decades. Entity specific aspects and, in particular, the presence of targetable driver mutation impact the clinical presentation and prognosis. Future BM specific trials need to address the modern composition of BM cohorts and the distinct clinical course of patients with targetable driver mutations.

Validation of a Graded Prognostic Model in Patients With Brain Metastases Treated With Whole-brain Radiotherapy Instead of Radiosurgery

BACKGROUND/AIM

The aim of this study was to analyze the survival predictions obtained from a recent graded prognostic model developed and validated in Japan.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This was a retrospective single-institution analysis of 249 patients, managed with whole-brain radiotherapy for brain metastases. The sum of scores was calculated as in the Japanese study. The following parameters were included: number of brain metastases, volume of the largest lesion, sex, Karnofsky performance status, primary cancer type, control of primary cancer, and presence of extra-cerebral metastases.

RESULTS

Median overall survival was 3.0 months (95% CI= 2.6-3.4 months). The median sum of scores was 12, range=0-29. Statistically significant differences were observed between all prognostic strata.

CONCLUSION

The graded prognostic model is also applicable to patients treated with whole-brain rather than stereotactic radiotherapy.

Population-based estimates of survival among elderly patients with brain metastases

BACKGROUND

Prognostic estimates for patients with brain metastases (BM) stem from younger, healthier patients enrolled in clinical trials or databases from academic centers. We characterized population-level prognosis in elderly patients with BM.

METHODS

Using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare data, we identified 9882 patients ≥65 years old with BM secondary to lung, breast, skin, kidney, esophageal, colorectal, and ovarian primaries between 2014 and 2016. Survival was assessed by primary site and evaluated with Cox regression.

RESULTS

In total, 2765 versus 7117 patients were diagnosed with BM at primary cancer diagnosis (synchronous BM, median survival = 2.9 mo) versus thereafter (metachronous BM, median survival = 3.4 mo), respectively. Median survival for all primary sites was ≤4 months, except ovarian cancer (7.5 mo). Patients with non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) receiving epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR)- or anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK)-based therapy for synchronous BM displayed notably better median survival at 12.5 and 20.1 months, respectively, versus 2.8 months exhibited by other patients with NSCLC; survival estimates in melanoma patients based on receipt of BRAF/MEK therapy versus not were 6.7 and 2.8 months, respectively. On multivariable regression, older age, greater comorbidity, and type of managing hospital were associated with poorer survival; female sex, higher median household income, and use of brain-directed stereotactic radiation, neurosurgical resection, or systemic therapy (versus brain-directed non-stereotactic radiation) were associated with improved survival (all P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Elderly patients with BM have a poorer prognosis than suggested by prior algorithms. If prognosis is driven by systemic and not intracranial disease, brain-directed therapy with potential for significant toxicity should be utilized cautiously.

Individualized Nomogram for Predicting Survival in Patients with Brain Metastases After Stereotactic Radiosurgery Utilizing Driver Gene Mutations and Volumetric Surrogates

It is well-known that genomic mutational analysis plays a significant role in patients with NSCLC for personalized treatment. Given the increasing use of stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) for brain metastases (BM), there is an emerging need for more precise assessment of survival outcomes after SRS. Patients with BM and treated by SRS were eligible in this study. The primary endpoint was overall survival (OS). Cox regression models were used to identify independent prognostic factors. A survival predictive nomogram was developed and evaluated by Concordance-index (C-index), area under the curve (AUC), and calibration curve. From January 2016 to December 2019, a total of 356 BM patients were eligible. The median OS was 17.7 months [95% confidence interval (CI) 15.5–19.9] and the actual OS at 1- and 2-years measured 63.2 and 37.6%, respectively. A nomogram for OS was developed by incorporating four independent prognostic factors: Karnofsky Performance Score, cumulative tumor volume, gene mutation status, and serum lactate dehydrogenase. The nomogram was validated in a separate cohort and demonstrated good calibration and good discriminative ability (C-index = 0.780, AUC = 0.784). The prognostic accuracy of the nomogram (0.792) was considerably enhanced when compared with classical prognostic indices, including the Graded Prognostic Assessment (0.708), recursive partitioning analysis (0.587), and the SRS (0.536). Kaplan–Meier curves showed significant differences in OS among the stratified low-, median- and high-risk groups (P < 0.001). In conclusion, we developed and validated an individualized prognostic nomogram by integrating physiological, volumetric, clinical chemistry, and molecular biological surrogates. Although this nomogram should be validated by independent external study, it has a potential to facilitate more precise risk-stratifications to guide personalized treatment for BM.

Applicability of the adjusted graded prognostic assessment for lung cancer with brain metastases using molecular markers (Lung-molGPA) in a Chinese cohort: A retrospective study of multiple institutions

Background

In this era of precision medicine, prognostic heterogeneity is an important feature of patients with non‐small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) with brain metastases (BM). This multi‐institutional study is aimed to verify the applicability of the adjusted Lung‐molGPA model for NSCLC with BM in a Chinese cohort.

Methods

This retrospective study included 1903 patients at three hospitals in Southwest China. The performance of the Lung‐molGPA model was compared with that of the adjusted DS‐GPA model in terms of estimating the survival of NSCLC with BM.

Results

The median OS of this patient cohort was 27.0 months, and the adenocarcinoma survived longer than the non‐adenocarcinoma (28.0 months vs 18.7 months, p < 0.001). The adjusted Lung‐molGPA model was more accurate in predicting survival of adenocarcinoma patients than the adjusted DS‐GPA model (C‐index: 0.615 vs 0.571), and it was not suitable for predicting survival of non‐adenocarcinoma patients (p = 0.286, 1.5‐2.0 vs 2.5‐3.0; p = 0.410, 2.5‐3.0 vs 3.5‐4.0).

Conclusions

The adjusted Lung‐molGPA model is better than the DS‐GPA model in predicting the prognosis of adenocarcinoma patients. However, it failed to estimate the prognosis for non‐adenocarcinoma patients.

[Short-term survival prediction scale in patients with metastatic brain disease caused by lung and breast cancer]

OBJECTIVE

To develop a prognostic scale suitable for distinguishing a group of poor prognosis with low survival prior to deciding on the appropriateness of radiotherapy.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We analyzed only those patients with reliably known date of death after previous WBRT to determine objective criteria allowing WBRT abandonment. WBRT was carried out in 100 patients with non-small cell lung cancer (n=49) and breast cancer (n=51) and confirmed metastatic brain disease. All procedures have been conducted at the radiotherapy department of the Herzen Moscow Oncology Research Institute since January 2014. The prescribed dose of 3 Gy was ensured in all patients. Total focal dose of 30 Gy delivered in 10 fractions was achieved in 77 cases, 36 Gy delivered in 12 fractions - in 23 cases.

RESULTS

Death date was recorded in all patients (n=100) by January 2020. In the electronic SPSS database, death information was digitized for each patient up to 2-24 months, respectively. We identified eight the most significant factors by using of correlation analysis: primary tumor (controlled (0), uncontrolled (1)), number of brain metastases (<17 (0), ≥17 (1)), volume of brain metastases (<48 cm³ (0) ≥48 cm³ (1)), extracranial control (no metastases (0), metastases with positive dynamics after chemotherapy (1), continued growth after chemotherapy (2)), metastatic lesion of liver and lungs, respectively (no (0), yes (1)), functional status (≥ 70% (0), ≤ 60% (1)), carcinomatosis of the meninges (no (0), yes (1)). A simple summation of digital variables for factors 1-8 in each patient resulted a prognostic scale. Low risk of early mortality after WBRT was determined by 0-3 scores, intermediate risk - 4-5 scores, high risk - 6-9 scores. According to univariate analysis (log-rank 0.000), median survival rate varied in these groups: low risk - 15.5 months (11.4-19.7), intermediate risk - 5.26 months (4.6-6.0), high risk - only 1.35 months (0.9-1.8). Only 1 out of 15 high-risk patients (6-9 scores) survived 3 months (3.25 months). Inclusion of all eight factors into multivariate analysis revealed significant impact of only risk group on short-term survival. A 3-month survival in the high-risk group was 20.6 times lower (p=0.002) compared to the low and intermediate risk groups.

CONCLUSION

High significance of prognostic model and low informative value of each of the included factors emphasize the advisability of determining risk groups for short-term survival according to the suggested scale for each patient scheduled for WBRT. A simple assessment of separate predictors is pointless to decide whether WBRT is necessary.

ALK-Brain Prognostic Index-Preliminary Study of a Prognostic Tool for Patients with ALK-Rearranged, Non-small Cell Lung Cancer and Brain Metastases

Background: Disease-specific Graded Prognostic Assessment (DS-GPA) is the most validated prognostic tool for patients with brain metastasized lung cancer. The Lung-molGPA scoring system was recently introduced for oncogenic-driven brain metastasized lung cancer, but has not yet been validated in cohorts including only ALK-translocated tumors. Methods: We designed a retrospective cohort study consisting of 44 patients with brain metastasized ALK-positive, non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) who were treated between January 2009 and November 2019 at Karolinska University Hospital in Stockholm, Sweden. Information about demographics and clinicopathological parameters were collected. Predictors of overall survival (OS) were identified by Cox regression analyses. A bootstrap validation with 1000 samples was performed in order to compare the different prognostic scores. Results: The variables found to independently influence OS in the multivariate analysis, i.e., PS, sex and brain metastases at diagnosis, were used as prognostic variables in our new prognostic index (ALK-BPI). Patients were divided into two prognostic groups. The median OS was 65.7 months for the good prognostic group and 22.7 months for the poor prognostic group (p = 0.0068). In the univariate analysis of the different prognostic scores, ALK-BPI performed better than the others (HR = 3.6; 95% CI: 1.3–9.9). The mean C-statistics of the different prognostic scores were compared to each other, and no significant difference was observed. Conclusion: We propose the ALK-BPI score as a new prognostic tool that can easily be applied for ALK-positive lung cancer patients with brain metastases in daily clinical practice, as it has at least the same prognostic value as Lung-molGPA.

Validation of the graded prognostic assessment for gastrointestinal cancers with brain metastases (GI-GPA)

PURPOSE

The purpose of this study was to validate a new prognostic model (GI-GPA) originally derived from a multi-center database (USA, Canada, Japan).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This retrospective study included 92 German and Norwegian patients treated with individualized approaches, always including brain radiotherapy. Information about age, extracranial spread, number of brain metastases, performance status and other variables was collected. The GI-GPA score was calculated as described by Sperduto et al. RESULTS: Median survival was 4 months. The corresponding figures for the 4 different prognostic strata were 2.3, 4.4, 9.4 and 12.7 months, respectively (p = 0.0001). Patients whose management included surgical resection had longer median survival than those who were treated with other approaches (median 11.9 versus 3.0 months, p = 0.002). Comparable results were seen for additional systemic therapy (median 8.5 versus 3.5 months, p = 0.01).

CONCLUSION

These results confirm the validity of the GI-GPA in an independent dataset from a different geographical region, despite the fact that overall survival was shorter in all prognostic strata, compared to Sperduto et al. Potential explanations include differences in molecular tumor characteristics and treatment selection, both brain metastases-directed and extracranially. Long-term survival beyond 5 years is possible in a small minority of patients.

The usefulness of stereotactic radiosurgery for recursive partitioning analysis class II/III lung cancer patients with brain metastases in the modern treatment era

Stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) is considered the initial treatment for lung cancer patients with small-sized and limited number of brain metastases. The objective of this study was to assess clinical outcomes of SRS treatment using CyberKnife (CK) for recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) class II/III patients with 1 to 3 brain metastases from lung cancer and identify which patients in the high RPA class could benefit from SRS.A total of 48 lung cancer patients who received CK-based SRS for their metastatic brain lesions from 2010 to 2017 were retrospectively analyzed. Radiographic response was evaluated during follow-up period. Overall survival (OS) and intracranial progression-free survival (IPFS) were calculated and prognostic variables associated with OS and IPFS were evaluated.Median follow-up time was 6.6 months. Local control rates at 6 months and 1-year following SRS were 98% and 92%, respectively. The median OS of all patients was 8 months. One-year and 2-year OS rates were 40.8% and 20.9%, respectively. In multivariate analysis, uncontrolled primary disease (P = .01) and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 2 or 3 (P = .001) were independent prognostic factors for inferior OS. These 2 factors were also significantly associated with inferior IPFS. In subgroup analysis according to RPA class, primary disease status was the only prognostic factor, showing statistically significant OS differences in both RPA class II and III (controlled vs uncontrolled: 41.1 vs 12.3 months in RPA class II, P = .03; 26.9 vs 4.1 months in RPA class III, P = .01).Our results indicated that SRS could be an effective treatment option for RPA class II/III patients with brain metastases from lung cancer in the modern treatment era. SRS might be particularly considered for patients with controlled primary disease.

Role of perilesional edema and tumor volume in the prognosis of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) undergoing radiosurgery (SRS) for brain metastases

AIM

To assess the role of perilesional edema (PE) in non-small cell lung carcinoma (NSCLC) brain metastases (BM) undergoing radiosurgery (SRS).

METHODS

This series includes 46 patients with 1-2 BM treated with SRS, selected out of all patients referred for radiotherapy (RT) for BMs over 5 years (2013 to 2017). Both the PE and gross tumor volume (GTV) were contoured on MRI images, and the PE/GTV ratio and PE + GTV value (TV, total volume) were calculated. Our clinical endpoints were brain recurrence free-survival, divided into local brain control (in field, LBC) and distant brain control (out of field, DBC) and overall survival (OS). We analyzed the role of the previously described volumetric parameters and of known clinical prognosticators (disease specific GPA, DS-GPA; chemotherapy, CHT) with Cox regression analyses.

RESULTS

Only four patients (9%) developed in-field progression, whereas 10 patients (22%) showed new out-of-field BM and thirty-eight patients died in the follow up (83%). In univariate analysis, both volumetric parameters and clinical parameters were correlated with DBC and OS, whereas we did not find any correlation with LBC. In the multivariate analysis of DBC, the significant parameters were PE/GTV ratio (HR 0.302), sex (HR 0.131), and DS-GPA (HR 0.261). The OS multivariate analysis showed that the only significant parameters were DS-GPA (HR 0.478) and TV (HR: 1.038).

CONCLUSION

Our study, although with the limitations of a monocentric retrospective study analyzing a small cohort of patients, suggests the role of PE/GTV ratio for the development of new BMs. TV also seems to be correlated with OS, together with known clinical prognosticators. These findings, if validated in a larger prospective dataset, could help in selecting patients for the most suitable RT modality (or systemic therapy approach).

Patterns of Treatment and Outcome in Patients With 20 or More Brain Metastases

BACKGROUND/AIM

The aim of this study was to analyze the patterns of treatment and outcomes in patients with a large number of brain metastases, arbitrarily defined as 20 or more lesions. These patients are typically excluded from studies of focal brain treatment, e.g., surgery or radiosurgery, and might have a limited prognosis.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This was a retrospective single-institution analysis. Overall, 11 patients were identified from a prospectively maintained database.

RESULTS

Ten patients had received active treatment (9 whole-brain radiotherapy, 7 systemic therapy). Median survival was 5.0 months without long-term survival beyond 13 months. Patients with better performance status had numerically longer survival, however we did not identify baseline parameters with a significant impact on survival.

CONCLUSION

While long-term survival was not observed in this small study, most patients survived long enough to experience symptomatic improvement from whole-brain radiotherapy. Therefore, we recommend multidisciplinary assessment of the patients' prognosis and systemic treatment options, and initiation of whole-brain radiotherapy if survival is not limited to 1-2 months.

External validation of a prognostic score predicting overall survival for patients with brain metastases based on extracranial factors

•

We provide an external validation of the extracranial prognostic score developed by Nieder et al.

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This extracranial score could effectively define the patients with very short survival.

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A new combination of extracranial score with DS-GPA-score achieved an even better discrimination

Purpose

The aim of our study was an external validation of the extracranial prognostic score predicting survival of patients with brain metastases receiving cranial irradiation on data from a single institution.

Materials and methods

A retrospective analysis of 524 patients with brain metastases treated with cranial radiotherapy in a single tertiary center was performed. Three predictive scores were calculated and assessed for their ability to discriminate prognostic groups: (i) The Recursive Partitioning Analysis (RPA) score (available for 524 patients); (ii) the Diagnosis-Specific Graded Prognostic Assessment (DS-GPA) score (464 patients); (iii) the extracranial score (EC-S) developed by Nieder et al. which is based on serum albumin, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and the number of extracranial organs involved (157 patients). Discrimination of each score was assessed by Gönen & Heller’s concordance probability estimate (CPE). The calibration was checked by comparing median survival estimates of each risk group with the corresponding values of the datasets from which the scores were derived. Finally, a multivariable Cox regression model was built by using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator on a large number of variables including all three scores.

Results

With a CPE = 0.626 ± 0.022, the EC-S had the best discriminatory power. The EC-S also appeared to be better calibrated and had the best ability to separate patients with a very poor prognosis: patients with combination of low albumin, elevated LDH and more than 1 extracranial organ with metastatic involvement had a median survival time of only 0.6 months (CI95% 0.1–1.1) and a hazard ratio for death of 6.36 (2.67–15.14) compared to patients with no extracranial metastases and normal levels of albumin and LDH. In the multivariable Cox model serum albumin, LDH, treatment modality, DS-GPA and EC-S were retained as prognostic factors. An ad hoc combination of both DS-GPA and EC-S into a new score was possible for 134 patients and indicated a slightly better discrimination (CPE = 0.636 ± 0.023) than either DS-GPA or EC-S alone.

Conclusions

This study provides an independent validation of the prognostic EC-S which was the best prognostic model for defining the patients who obviously did not benefit from radiation therapy of brain metastases in terms of overall survival. The combination of the EC-S with the established DS-GPA score resulted in a slight increase in discriminatory ability. The new EC-GPA score needs further validation in larger patient cohorts.

Management of patients with brain metastases from non-small cell lung cancer and adverse prognostic features: multi-national radiation treatment recommendations are heterogeneous

Background

Different management options exist for patients with brain metastases from non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), patients whose treatment with whole brain radiotherapy (WBRT) has become more controversial over the last decade. It is not trivial to find the optimal balance of over- versus undertreatment in these patients. Several recent trials, including the randomized QUARTZ trial now influence the decision to recommend or withhold WBRT for patients with unfavorable prognosis, and similarly, for favorable prognosis patients, the balance between radiosurgery alone or WBRT has become a nuanced decision. Additionally, the availability of intracranially active targeted agent for some subsets of these patients has added another layer of complexity to the decision-making.

Methods

A multinational consortium of expert radiation oncologists was established with the aim of compiling treatment recommendations for challenging scenarios, in this case the choice between optimal supportive care (SC), WBRT and other types of radiation therapy (RT). We distributed 17 cases to 7 radiation oncologists who were allowed to involve coworkers to provide their treatment recommendations. The cases differed in extra- and intracranial disease extent, histology, age and other prognostic factors. Expert recommendations were tabulated with the aim of providing guidance.

Results

Regarding willingness to include the 17 patients in the QUARTZ trial, the rates of trial inclusion were low (range 0/7 to 3/7). Experts not recommending trial inclusion provided their treatment recommendations. These suggestions differed widely for most of the patients. It was not uncommon to see 3 or 4 different recommendations. In general, few (0–2) recommended SC. Some kind of local treatment was suggested by the majority of experts for all 17 patients. Commonly, stereotactic single-fraction radiosurgery (SRS) or stereotactic fractionated radiotherapy (SFRT) were recommended by many experts, also for patients with 5–7 lesions. The highest proportion of recommendations towards WBRT in any patient was 3/7. It was also quite common for patients with multiple metastases of varying size that experts suggested combinations of resection, post-operative SRS/SFRT and SRS/SFRT to intact lesions. Despite recommending active treatment, experts were often willing to include the patients in a hypothetical protocol investigating radiotherapy utilization in the last 30 days of life (assessment of factors predicting early death).

Conclusions

WBRT was infrequently recommended. Even in patients with adverse prognostic features that raised the experts’ awareness of an increased risk for futile treatment near the end of life, SRS/SFRT were more often recommended than optimal supportive care, unless a patient decided to forego active treatment.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13014-019-1237-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Stereotactic Radiosurgery in the Management of Patients With Brain Metastases of Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer: Indications, Decision Tools and Future Directions

Brain metastases (BM) frequently occur in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. Most patients with BM have a limited life expectancy, measured in months. Selected patients may experience a very long progression-free survival, for example, patients with a targetable driver mutation. Traditionally, whole-brain radiotherapy (WBRT) has been the cornerstone of the treatment, but its indication is a matter of debate. A randomized trial has shown that for patients with a poor prognosis, WBRT does not add quality of life (QoL) nor survival over the best supportive care. In recent decades, stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) has become an attractive non-invasive treatment for patients with BM. Only the BM is irradiated to an ablative dose, sparing healthy brain tissue. Intracranial recurrence rates decrease when WBRT is administered following SRS or resection but does not improve overall survival and comes at the expense of neurocognitive function and QoL. The downside of SRS compared with WBRT is a risk of radionecrosis (RN) and a higher risk of developing new BM during follow-up. Currently, SRS is an established treatment for patients with a maximum of four BM. Several promising strategies are currently being investigated to further improve the indication and outcome of SRS for patients with BM: the effectivity and safety of SRS in patients with more than four BM, combining SRS with systemic therapy such as targeted agents or immunotherapy, shared decision-making with SRS as a treatment option, and individualized isotoxic dose prescription to mitigate the risk of RN and further enhance local control probability of SRS. This review discusses the current indications of SRS and future directions of treatment for patients with BM of NSCLC with focus on the value of SRS.

Validation of the Graded Prognostic Assessment for Melanoma Using Molecular Markers (Melanoma-molGPA)

Background

It has been suggested to replace the diagnosis-specific graded prognostic assessment (DS-GPA, based on performance status and number of brain metastases) for patients with primary malignant melanoma with the new Melanoma-molGPA. The latter is a more complex assessment, which also includes BRAF mutation status, age and extracranial metastases. To test the performance of the Melanoma-molGPA, we performed a validation study of this new survival prediction tool.

Methods

A retrospective analysis of patients treated at two different academic institutions was performed. The four-tiered Melanoma-molGPA was calculated as suggested in the original study.

Results

Median overall survival was 5.4 months (95% confidence interval: 3.1 - 7.7 months). Median survival in the four prognostic classes was 2.1, 7.8, 11.8, and 18.0 months, respectively. The 1-year survival rates were 3%, 25%, 43%, and 80%, respectively. The difference between the Kaplan-Meier curves was significant (P = 0.0001, log-rank test).

Conclusions

The present survival outcomes support the use of the Melanoma-molGPA. However, survival was better in each of the four groups in the original study. Possible reasons include lead-time bias and different treatment policies.

Frequency and Prognostic Impact of Consistently Low Edmonton Symptom Assessment System Score in the Patients Treated with Palliative Radiotherapy

Introduction

Our department's standard work-flow includes assessment of all the patients with the Edmonton Symptom Assessment System (ESAS), a one-sheet questionnaire addressing 11 major symptoms and wellbeing on a numeric scale of zero-10, before the palliative radiotherapy (PRT). Based on previous research, we hypothesized that the patients with minimal or moderate total symptom burden might have better overall survival after the PRT than those with at least one higher symptom score.

Methods

We performed a retrospective analysis of 94 patients and calculated actuarial survival from the first day of the PRT (Kaplan-Meier method). We identified the patients with the score zero for all ESAS items (no symptoms), at least one item with score one-two (minimal symptoms), and at least one item with the score three (moderate symptoms).

Results

High proportions of the patients had ESAS scores zero- two for nausea (80%), sadness/depression (65%) and constipation (64%). The mean values were often in the range of two-four. Only one patient reported scores of zero throughout the questionnaire. He was treated for hematuria, a symptom that is not part of the ESAS. Three patients reported scores of zero-two throughout the questionnaire. Except for the performance status zero-one, their baseline characteristics were heterogeneous. Two patients reported scores not exceeding three for all items. These patients had excellent performance status, too. None of the six patients (6%) with relatively low ESAS scores of zero-three received care by the hospital's multidisciplinary palliative team. Only one was using opioid analgesics. The median survival for this small subset of six patients was six months, identical to the result for all the patients with higher symptom burden (p = 0.62).

Conclusion

The proportion of the patients with ESAS scores zero-three throughout the questionnaire was 6%, which resulted in the limited statistical power for the survival comparisons. The survival outcomes were similar. Before PRT, 94% of the patients reported at least one ESAS item of severity four-10. The symptoms not included in the questionnaire, e.g., hematuria might result in erroneous assignment to the low-symptom-burden group and obscure the prognostic impact of low ESAS symptom burden.

Generation of a New Disease-specific Prognostic Score for Patients With Brain Metastases From Small-cell Lung Cancer Treated With Whole Brain Radiotherapy (BMS-Score) and Validation of Two Other Indices

INTRODUCTION

Patients with small-cell lung cancer (SCLC) demonstrate an exception in the treatment of brain metastases (BM), because in patients with SCLC whole brain radiotherapy (WBRT) only is the preferred treatment modality. The purpose of this study was to develop a prognostic score for patients with brain metastases from SCLC treated with WBRT.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The present study was conducted utilizing a single-institution, previously described, retrospective database of patients with SCLC who were treated with WBRT (n = 221). Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to generate the "brain metastases from SCLC score" (BMS score) based on favorable prognostic factors: Karnofsky performance status (KPS > 70), extracerebral disease status (stable disease/controlled), and time of appearance of BM (synchronous). Furthermore, the disease-specific graded prognostic assessment score as well as the recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) were performed and compared with the new BMS score by using the log-rank (Mantel-Cox) test.

RESULTS

BMS score and RPA showed the most significant differences between classes (P < .001). BMS score revealed a mean overall survival (OS) of 2.62 months in group I (0-1 points), 6.61 months in group II (2-3 points), and 12.31 months in group III (4 points). The BMS score also identified the group with the shortest survival (2.62 months in group I), and the numbers of patients in each group were most equally distributed with the BMS score.

CONCLUSION

The new BMS score was more prognostic than the RPA and disease-specific graded prognostic assessment scores. The BMS score is easy to use and reflects known prognostic factors in contemporary patients with SCLC treated with WBRT. Future studies are necessary to validate these findings.