Development and validation of a nomogram predicting the risk of recurrent lumbar disk herniation within 6 months after percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy

Optimizing prediction accuracy for early recurrent lumbar disc herniation with a directional mutation-guided SVM model

Percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy (PELD) is one of the main means of minimally invasive spinal surgery, and is an effective means of treating lumbar disc herniation, but its early recurrence is still difficult to predict. With the development of machine learning technology, the auxiliary model based on the prediction of early recurrent lumbar disc herniation (rLDH) and the identification of causative risk factors have become urgent problems in current research. However, the screening ability of current models for key factors affecting the prediction of rLDH, as well as their predictive ability, needs to be improved. Therefore, this paper presents a classification model that utilizes wrapper feature selection, developed through the integration of an enhanced bat algorithm (BDGBA) and support vector machine (SVM). Among them, BDGBA increases the population diversity and improves the population quality by introducing directional mutation strategy and guidance-based strategy, which in turn allows the model to secure better subsets of features. Furthermore, SVM serves as the classifier for the wrapper feature selection method, with its classification prediction results acting as a fitness function for the feature subset. In the proposed prediction method, BDGBA is used as an optimizer for feature subset filtering and as an objective function for feature subset evaluation based on the classification results of the support vector machine, which improves the interpretability and prediction accuracy of the model. In order to verify the performance of the proposed method, this paper proves the performance of the model through global optimization experiments and prediction experiments on real data sets. The accuracy of the proposed rLDH prediction model is 93.49% and sensitivity is 88.33%. The experimental results show that Level of herniated disk, Modic change, Disk height, Disk length, and Disk width are the key factors for predicting rLDH, and the proposed method is an effective auxiliary diagnosis method.

Lumbar lordosis and sacral slope do not differ in two types of postoperative lumbar disc re-herniation: a cross-sectional observational study

BACKGROUND

To identify the differences of lumbar lordosis (LL) and sacral slope (SS) angles between two types of postoperative lumbar disc re-herniation, including the recurrence of same level and adjacent segment herniation (ASH).

METHODS

We searched the medical records of lumbar disc herniation (LDH) patients with re-herniation with complete imaging data (n = 58) from January 1, 2013 to December 30, 2020 in our hospital. After matching for age and sex, 58 patients with LDH without re-herniation from the same period operated by the same treatment group in our hospital were served as a control group. Re-herniation patients were divided into two groups, same-level recurrent lumbar disc herniation group (rLDHG) and adjacent segment herniation group with or without recurrence (ASHG). The preoperative, postoperative and one month after operation LL and SS were measured on standing radiographs and compared with the control group by using t-test, ANOVA, and rank-sum test. Next, we calculated the odds ratios (ORs) by unconditional logistic regression, progressively adjusted for other confounding factors.

RESULTS

Compared with the control group, the postoperative LL and SS were significantly lower in LDH patients with re-herniation. However, there were no differences in LL and SS between ASHG and rLDHG at any stage. After progressive adjustment for confounding factors, no matter what stage is, LL and SS remained unassociated with the two types of re-herniation.

CONCLUSIONS

Low postoperative LL and SS angles are associated with degeneration of the remaining disc. Low LL and SS may be independent risk factors for re-herniation but cannot determine type of recurrence (same or adjacent disc level).

Lumbar disc herniation: Prevention and treatment of recurrence: WFNS spine committee recommendations

Objective

This review aims to formulate the most current evidence-based recommendations on the epidemiology, prevention, and treatment of recurrent lumbar disc herniation (LDH).

Methods

We performed a systematic literature search in PubMed, Medline, and Google Scholar databases from 2012 to 2022 using the keywords "lumbar disc recurrence." Screening criteria resulted in 57 papers, which were summarized and presented at two international consensus meetings of the World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies (WFNS) Spine Committee. The 57 papers covered the following topics: (1) Definition and incidence of recurrence after lumbar disc surgery; (2) Prediction of recurrence before primary surgery; (3) Prevention of recurrence by surgical measures; (4) Prevention of recurrence by postoperative measures; (5) Treatment options for recurrent disc herniation; (6) The outcomes of recurrent disc herniation surgery. We utilized the Delphi method and voted on eight final consensus statements.

Results and conclusion

Recurrence after disc herniation surgery may be considered a surgical complication, its incidence is approximately 5% and is different from overall re-operation incidence. There are multiple risk factors predicting LDH recurrence, including smoking, younger age, male gender, obesity, diabetes, disc degeneration, and presence of lumbosacral transitional vertebrae. The level of lumbar discectomy surgery and the amount of disc material removed do not correlate with recurrence rate. Minimally invasive discectomies may have higher recurrence rates, especially during the surgeon's learning period. However, the experience of the surgeon is not related to recurrence. High-quality studies are needed to determine if activity restriction, weight loss, smoking cessation, and muscle-strengthening exercises after primary surgery can help prevent recurrence of LDH.The best treatment option for recurrent disc herniation is still being discussed. While complications of minimally invasive techniques may be lower than open discectomy, outcomes are similar. Fusion should only be considered when spinal instability and/or spinal deformity are present. Clinical outcomes and patient satisfaction after recurrent disc herniation surgery are inferior to those after initial discectomy.

Radiologic Analysis of Causes of Early Recurrence After Percutaneous Endoscopic Transforaminal Discectomy

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective study.

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the causes of and factors influencing early recurrence after TELD performed in the treatment of lumbar disc herniation.

METHODS

We included 285 patients with single-segment lumbar disc herniation treated using transforaminal endoscopy lumbar discectomy TELD from January 2017 to December 2019 at the First Affiliated Hospital of the University of South China. Patients were classified into early recurrence and non-early recurrence groups based on clinical symptoms and MRI reexamination. Imaging data (eg, disc height index (DHI), Pfirrman grades, base width, postoperative annulus-fibrosus tear size, cross-sectional area of the foramen (CSAF), etc.)were analyzed, and multivariate, binomial logistic regression was utilized to determine which factors were associated with early recurrence after TELD.

RESULTS

A total of 285 patients completed surgery and clinical follow-up, during which 19 patients relapsed within 6 months postsurgery, for an early recurrence rate of 6.7%. There were statistically significant differences between DHI, Pfirrman grades, base width, postoperative annulus-fibrosus tear size, herniation sites, CSAF and Modic changes between the early recurrence and non-early recurrence groups (P < .05). On multivariate logistic regression,the degree of disc degeneration (OR = .747, P = .037), CSAF (OR = 5.255, P = .006), degree of Modic change (OR = 1.831, P = .018) and base width of the herniation (OR = 4.942, P = .003) were significantly correlated with early recurrence after TELD.

CONCLUSIONS

Postoperative annulus-fibrosus tear size, DHI, and location of the disc herniation were associated with early recurrence after TELD. Increased base width of the herniation, severe disc degeneration, decreased CSAF and Modic change were risk factors for early recurrence after TELD.

Machine Learning Predicts Recurrent Lumbar Disc Herniation Following Percutaneous Endoscopic Lumbar Discectomy

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective study.

OBJECTIVES

To develop machine learning (ML) models to predict recurrent lumbar disc herniation (rLDH) following percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy (PELD).

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 1159 patients who had undergone single-level PELD for lumbar disc herniation (LDH) between July 2014 to December 2019 at our institution. Various preoperative imaging variables and demographic metrics were brought in analysis. Student's t test and Chi-squared test were applied for univariate analysis, which were feature selection for ML models. We established ML models to predict rLDH: Artificial neural networks (ANN), Extreme Gradient Boost classifier (XGBoost), KNeighborsClassifier (KNN), Decision tree classifier (Decision Tree), Random forest classifier (Random Forest), and support vector classifier (SVC).

RESULTS

A total 130 patients (11.22%) were diagnosed as rLDH in 1159 patients. Recurrence occurred within 10.25 ± 11.05 months. Body mass index (BMI) (P = .027), facet orientation (FO) (P < .001), herniation type (P = .012), Modic changes (P = .004), and disc calcification (P = .013) are significant factors in univariate analysis (P < .05). Extreme Gradient Boost classifier, Random Forest, ANN showed fine area under the curve, .9315, .9220, and .8814 respectively.

CONCLUSION

We developed a deep learning and 2 ensemble models with fine performance in prediction of rLDH following PELD. Predicting re-herniation before surgery has the potential to optimize decision-making and meaningfully decrease the rates of rLDH following PELD. Our ML model identified higher BMI, lower FO, Modic changes, disc calcification in a non-protrusive region, and herniation type (noncontained herniation) as significant features for predicting rLDH.

Analysis of risk factors for post-operative recurrence after percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy in patients with lumbar disc herniation: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to systematically evaluate risk factors for post-operative recurrence after percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy (PELD) in patients with lumbar disc herniation (LDH).

METHODS

The eligible studies were retrieved from PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science databases. Quality assessment was performed. The effects of binary variables (sex, Modic change (MC), type 2 diabetes (T2DM), and smoking) on post-operative recurrence were evaluated as odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). The effects of continuous variables (sagittal range of motion (SROM), body mass index (BMI), and age) were assessed as weighted mean difference (WMD) and 95% CI. Sensitivity analysis and publication bias were conducted to evaluate the reliability of pooled results.

RESULTS

Eight studies were included, and their methodological quality was medium. MC (OR (95% CI) = 3.88 (2.24-6.74), P < 0.001), smoking (OR (95% CI) = 1.87 (1.45, 2.42), P < 0.001), T2DM (OR (95% CI) = 1.61 (1.12, 2.31), P = 0.010), SROM (WMD (95% CI) = 2.33 (0.95, 3.70), P = 0.001), BMI (WMD (95% CI) = 1.68 (1.37, 1.99) kg/m2, P < 0.001), and age (WMD (95% CI) = 9.95 (5.05, 14.86) years, P < 0.001) were significantly related to post-operative recurrence in patients with LDH after PELD. Significant publication bias was not observed among studies in all outcome indicators.

CONCLUSION

Our findings reveal that high levels of age, BMI, and SROM, history of T2DM or smoking, or more MC may be correlated with post-operative recurrence after PELD.

Risk factor of residual leg numbness after lumbar microdiscectomy for lumbar disc herniation

Although patients with lumbar disc herniation (LDH) can achieve significant relief from lower back and leg pain after lumbar microdiscectomy, a few patients complain of discomfort due to residual leg numbness (RLN). This study aimed to identify potential risk factors for RLN after lumbar microdiscectomy. We prospectively collected and analyzed patients with LDH who underwent microdiscectomy between September 2016 and December 2020. All included patients had preoperative LN symptoms. Patients with RLN were defined as those with LN at the last follow-up. The relationships between RLN and sex, age, body mass index (BMI), current smoking status, diabetes mellitus, revision surgery, preoperative LN Numeric Rating Scale (NRS) score, duration of preoperative LN, RLN at discharge, sagittal range of motion (SROM), Modic change, disc Pfirrmann grade were analyzed. The RLN was observed in 33.5% (112/334) of patients at the last follow-up. No significant differences were observed in age, sex, BMI, current smoking status, or diabetes between the RLN and non-RLN groups. The preoperative LN NRS score, preoperative LN duration, rate of RLN at discharge, and revision surgery were significantly higher in the RLN group than those in the non-RLN group. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified the preoperative LN NRS score, duration of preoperative LN, RLN at discharge, revision surgery, and SROM as risk factors for RLN in the long-term follow-up. Patients with higher preoperative LN NRS scores and SROM, longer preoperative LN duration, RLN at discharge, and revision surgery were more likely to experience RNL after lumbar microdiscectomy.

Risk Factors of Low Back Pain Aggravation After Tubular Microdiscectomy of Lumbar Disc Herniation

BACKGROUND

Although lumbar disc herniation (LDH) patients' sciatic symptoms such as leg pain can be improved by decompressive surgery, some patients report postoperative aggravated low back pain (LBP). However, the exact reason for this phenomenon remained unknown.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed the prospectively collected LDH data of patients who underwent tubular microdiscectomy between December 2015 and December 2020. The patients were divided into aggravated and non-aggravated group according to whether the postoperative LBP visual analogue scale (VAS) score was higher than the preoperative score. We analyzed the relationship of the clinical and radiologic parameters with aggravated LBP.

RESULTS

Postoperative aggravated LBP cases accounted for 14.1% (57 of 404) of this series. Of the 57 patients, 88% (50 of 57) had mild postoperative LBP aggravation (1-2), and 12% (7 of 57) had severe LBP aggravation (>2). The preoperative LBP VAS score of the aggravated group was significantly lower than that of the non-aggravated group (P < 0.001), while the LBP VAS score and Oswestry Disability Index at final follow-up was significantly higher in the aggravated group (P < 0.05). Additionally, the proportion of preoperative moderate-to-severe multifidus fatty atrophy (MFA) and lumbar facet joint degeneration (LFJD) was significantly higher in the aggravated group. A multiple stepwise logistic regression analysis indicated that the preoperative LBP VAS score (P < 0.001, odds ratio 0.266, 95% CI 0.161-0.439) and MFA (P < 0.001, odds ratio 4.491, 95% CI 2.092-9.640) were the risk factors for postoperative aggravated LBP.

CONCLUSIONS

A preoperative lower LBP VAS score and moderate-to-severe MFA were associated with postoperative aggravated LBP. This will provide important guidance for patient's preoperative assessment and education.

Risk factors for lumbar disc herniation recurrence after percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy: a meta-analysis of 58 cohort studies

Recurrent lumbar disc herniation (rLDH) is one of the most serious complications and major causes of surgical failure and paralysis following percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy (PELD). There are reports in the literature on the identification of risk factors associated with rLDH; however, the results are controversial. Therefore, we conducted a meta-analysis to identify risk factors for rLDH among patients following spinal surgery. PubMed, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library were searched without language restrictions from inception to April 2018 for studies reporting risk factors for LDH recurrence after PELD. MOOSE guidelines were followed in this meta-analysis. We used a random effects model to aggregate odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The evidence of observational studies was classified into high quality (class I), medium quality (class II/III), and low quality (class IV) based on the P value of the total sample size and heterogeneity between studies. Fifty-eight studies were identified with a mean follow-up of 38.8 months. Studies with high-quality (class I) evidence showed that postoperative LDH recurrence after PELD was significantly correlated with diabetes (OR, 1.64; 95% CI, 1.14 to 2.31), the protrusion type LDH (OR, 1.62; 95% CI, 1.02 to 2.61), and less experienced surgeons (OR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.10 to 2.16). Studies with medium-quality (class II or III) evidence showed that postoperative LDH recurrence was significantly correlated with advanced age (OR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.05 to 1.19), Modic changes (OR, 2.23; 95% CI, 1.53 to 2.29), smoking (OR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.71), no college education (OR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.05 to 2.31), obesity (BMI ≥ 25 kg/m²) (OR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.11 to 2.47), and inappropriate manual labor (OR, 2.18; 95% CI, 1.33 to 3.59). Based on the current literature, eight patient-related and one surgery-related risk factor are predictors of postoperative LDH recurrence after PELD. These findings may help clinicians raise awareness of early intervention for patients at high risk of LDH recurrence after PELD.

Moderate to Severe Multifidus Fatty Atrophy is the Risk Factor for Recurrence After Microdiscectomy of Lumbar Disc Herniation

OBJECTIVE

We attempted to investigate the potential risk factors of recurrent lumbar disc herniation (rLDH) after tubular microdiscectomy.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed the data of patients who underwent tubular microdiscectomy. The clinical and radiological factors were compared between the patients with and without rLDH.

RESULTS

This study included 350 patients with lumbar disc herniation (LDH) who underwent tubular microdiscectomy. The overall recurrence rate was 5.7% (20 of 350). The visual analogue scale (VAS) score and Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) at the final follow-up significantly improved compared with those preoperatively. There was no significant difference in the preoperative VAS score and ODI between the rLDH and non-rLDH groups, while the leg pain VAS score and ODI of the rLDH group were significantly higher than those of the non-rLDH group at final follow-up. This suggested that rLDH patients had a worse prognosis than non-rLDH patients even after reoperation. There were no significant differences in sex, age, body mass index, diabetes, current smoking and drinking, disc height index, sagittal range of motion, facet orientation, facet tropism, Pfirrmann grade, Modic changes, interdisc kyphosis, and large LDH between the 2 groups. Univariate logistic regression analysis revealed that rLDH was associated with hypertension, multilevel microdiscectomy, and moderate-severe multifidus fatty atrophy (MFA). A multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that MFA was the sole and strongest risk factor for rLDH after tubular microdiscectomy.

CONCLUSION

Moderate-severe MFA was a risk factor for rLDH after tubular microdiscectomy, which can serve as an important reference for surgeons in formulating surgical strategies and the assessment of prognosis.

Development and Validation of a Nomogram to Predict the Risk of Lumbar Disk Reherniation within 2 Years After Percutaneous Endoscopic Lumbar Discectomy

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate a nomogram for predicting recurrent lumbar disk herniation (LDH) within 2 years after percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy.

METHODS

Information on patients' LDH was collected from 1 medical center between January 2015 and September 2020. The LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) method was applied to select the most significant risk factors. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to develop a predictive model incorporating the possible factors selected by the LASSO regression model. The discriminant, corrected, and clinically useful prediction models were evaluated using consistency index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis. Internal validation of clinical predictive power was also assessed by bootstrap validation.

RESULTS

A total of 690 patients with LDH were included in this study. Sixty-three patients experienced recurrence within 2 years whereas 627 experienced no recurrence. The nomogram predictors included age, body mass index, Modic change, Pfirrmann grade, and sagittal range of motion. The model had good discrimination power, with a reliable C-index of 0.868 (95% confidence interval, 0.822-0.913) and interval validation confirmed a higher C-index value of 0.846. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.868, indicating a good predictive value. The decision curve analysis indicated that it was clinically feasible to use the predictive recurrence nomogram model.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed and validated a new accurate and effective nomogram for predicting recurrent LDH within 2 years after percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy. Age, body mass index, Modic change, Pfirrmann grade, and sagittal range of motion were significant features for predicting rLDH.

Development and validation of a nomogram to predict the risk of surgical site infection within 1 month after transforaminal lumbar interbody fusion

OBJECTIVE

Surgical site infection (SSI), a common serious complication within 1 month after transforaminal lumbar interbody fusion (TLIF), usually leads to poor prognosis and even death. The objective of this study is to investigate the factors related to SSI within 1 month after TLIF. We have developed a dynamic nomogram to change treatment or prevent infection based on accurate predictions.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 383 patients who received TLIF at our institution from January 1, 2019, to June 30, 2022. The outcome variable in the current study was the occurrence of SSI within 1 month after surgery. Univariate logistic regression analysis was first performed to assess risk factors for SSI within 1 month after surgery, followed by inclusion of significant variables at P < 0.05 in multivariate logistic regression analysis. The independent risk variables were subsequently utilized to build a nomogram model. The consistency index (C-index), calibration curve and receiver operating characteristic curve were used to evaluate the performance of the model. And the decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to analyze the clinical value of the nomogram.

RESULTS

The multivariate logistic regression models further screened for three independent influences on the occurrence of SSI after TLIF, including lumbar paraspinal (multifidus and erector spinae) muscles (LPM) fat infiltration, diabetes and surgery duration. Based on the three independent factors, a nomogram prediction model was built. The area under the curve for the nomogram including these predictors was 0.929 in both the training and validation samples. Both the training and validation samples had high levels of agreement on the calibration curves, and the nomograms C-index was 0.929 and 0.955, respectively. DCA showed that if the threshold probability was less than 0.74, it was beneficial to use this nomograph to predict the risk of SSI after TLIF. In addition, the nomogram was converted to a web-based calculator that provides a graphical representation of the probability of SSI occurring within 1 month after TLIF.

CONCLUSION

A nomogram including LPM fat infiltration, surgery duration and diabetes is a promising model for predicting the risk of SSI within 1 month after TLIF. This nomogram assists clinicians in stratifying patients, hence boosting decision-making based on evidence and personalizing the best appropriate treatment.

Clinical efficacy of transforaminal endoscopic discectomy in the treatment of recurrent lumbar disc herniation: a single-center retrospective analysis

PURPOSE

To investigate the clinical efficacy of transforaminal endoscopic discectomy (TED) in treating recurrent lumbar disc herniation.

METHODS

Clinical datal of 31 patients who were hospitalized in the Department of Pain Management, First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, between 2015 and 2018 due to recurrent lumbar disc herniation were collected and analyzed retrospectively. Visual analogue scale (VAS) scores and Japanese Orthopedic Association (JOA) scores were used to assess alterations of patients' leg pain intensity and nerve function, respectively. The Modified MacNab criteria were used to evaluate patients' excellent and good rates.

RESULTS

Compared to clinical data before surgery, there was a significant reduction in VAS scores (P < 0.01) along with a significant improvement in JOA scores (P < 0.01) at 2 years after revision surgery. The patients' excellent and good rates were 83.9% at the 2 years after surgery.

CONCLUSION

The TED is safe and effective in the long term and is applicable to the treatment of recurrent lumbar disc herniation.

Development, validation, and visualization of a web-based nomogram to predict the effect of tubular microdiscectomy for lumbar disc herniation

Objective

The purpose of this study was to retrospectively collect the relevant clinical data of lumbar disc herniation (LDH) patients treated with the tubular microdiscectomy (TMD) technique, and to develop and validate a prediction model for predicting the treatment improvement rate of TMD in LDH patients at 1 year after surgery.

Methods

Relevant clinical data of LDH patients treated with the TMD technology were retrospectively collected. The follow-up period was 1 year after surgery. A total of 43 possible predictors were included, and the treatment improvement rate of the Japanese Orthopedic Association (JOA) score of the lumbar spine at 1 year after TMD was used as an outcome measure. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method was used to screen out the most important predictors affecting the outcome indicators. In addition, logistic regression was used to construct the model, and a nomogram of the prediction model was drawn.

Results

A total of 273 patients with LDH were included in this study. Age, occupational factors, osteoporosis, Pfirrmann classification of intervertebral disc degeneration, and preoperative Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) were screened out from the 43 possible predictors based on LASSO regression. A total of 5 predictors were included while drawing a nomogram of the model. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) value of the model was 0.795.

Conclusions

In this study, we successfully developed a good clinical prediction model that can predict the effect of TMD for LDH. A web calculator was designed on the basis of the model (https://fabinlin.shinyapps.io/DynNomapp/).

A 9-year retrospective cohort of patients with lumbar disc herniation: Comparison of patient characteristics and recurrence frequency by smoking status

To evaluate the association between smoking status and patient characteristics and to identify risk factors associated with recurrence in patients who underwent surgery for lumbar disc herniation (LDH). This retrospective study was carried out at Lokman Hekim University, Ankara, Turkey between January 1, 2021 and January 1, 2022. The medical data of patients who underwent microsurgical discectomy for LDH were retrospectively recorded. Patients with any reemergence of LDH within a 6-month period after surgery were defined as having recurrent LDH. A total of 1109 patients were included in the study and mean age was 50.7 ± 14.3 years. The frequency of hernia at L2-L3 and L3-L4 levels was higher in the nonsmoker group (P < .001). The frequency of cases with Pfirrmann Grade 4 degeneration was higher in the nonsmoker group than in smokers and ex-smokers (P < .001). Protrusion-type hernias were more common in nonsmokers (P = .014), whereas paracentral hernias were more common in smokers (P < .001). The overall frequency of recurrence was 20.4%, and was higher in smokers than in non-smokers and ex-smokers (P < .001). Multivariable logistic regression revealed that current smoking (OR: 2.778, 95% CI [confidence interval]: 1.939-3.980, P < .001), presence of Pfirrmann Grade 4&5 disc degeneration (OR: 4.217, 95% CI: 2.966-5.996, P < .001), and paracentral herniation (OR: 5.040, 95% CI: 2.266-11,207, P < .001) were associated with higher risk of recurrence, whereas presence of sequestrated disc was associated with lower risk of recurrence (OR: 2.262, 95% CI:0.272-0.717, P = .001). Taken together, our data show that smoking, increased degree of degeneration and paracentral hernia increase the risk of LDH recurrence, while sequestrated disc appears to decrease risk. Taking steps to combat smoking in individuals followed for LDH may reduce the risk of recurrence in LDH patients.

Development and internal validation of a nomogram to predict massive blood transfusions in neurosurgical operations

Objectives

A massive blood transfusion (MBT) is an unexpected event that may impact mortality. Neurosurgical operations are a major operation involving the vital structures and risk to bleeding. The aims of the present research were (1) to develop a nomogram to predict MBT and (2) to estimate the association between MBT and mortality in neurosurgical operations.

Material and Method

We conducted a retrospective cohort study including 3660 patients who had undergone neurosurgical operations. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to test the association between clinical factors, pre-operative hematological laboratories, and MBT. A nomogram was developed based on the independent predictors.

Results

The predictive model comprised five predictors as follows: Age group, traumatic brain injury, craniectomy operation, pre-operative hematocrit, and pre-operative international normalized ratio and the good calibration were observed in the predictive model. The concordance statistic index was 0.703. Therefore, the optimism-corrected c-index values of cross-validation and bootstrapping were 0.703 and 0.703, respectively.

Conclusion

MBT is an unexpectedly fatal event that should be considered for appropriate preparation blood components. Further, this nomogram can be implemented for allocation in limited-resource situations in the future.

Effects of Enhanced Recovery Rehabilitation Surgery Concepts on the Surgical Process, Postoperative Pain, Complications, and Prognosis of Discectomy in Patients with Lumbar Disc Herniation: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Objective

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of lumbar disc herniation (LDH) disease degree on lumbar discectomy and to explore the relationship between the degree of intervertebral disc disease and postoperative pain score changes.

Methods

We conducted a comprehensive search in China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), Wanfang Data, PubMed, MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane database, and other databases, obtained all relevant studies as of April 2017, and then followed strict inclusion and exclusion criteria. Standard screening was performed on the retrieved literature. We extract and analyze key data using Review Manager 5.3 software. Pooled effects were calculated by mean difference or odds ratio and 95% confidence interval analysis, depending on data attributes.

Results

Various databases were searched for the results of papers from lumbar discectomy since April 2017 to April 2022. Nine papers from 2502 patients were selected. The average overall follow-up was 52 weeks. There were statistically significant reductions in postoperative pain scores and degree of disc disease. There was a significant correlation between the reduction in pain score after discectomy and the degree of disc disease (r = 0.73, 95%CI = 0.01-1.20, p = 0.005).

Conclusions

Decreased disc disease grade is one of the reasons for the lower back pain score after discectomy. Furthermore, region-dependent economic factors must be considered before developing a treatment strategy. Larger, well-defined randomized controlled trials are needed to further confirm these results.