Hyponatremia influences the outcome of patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure: an analysis of the CANONIC study

New prognostic model for hospitalized patients with alcoholic cirrhosis and Maddrey's discriminant function <32

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Few studies have investigated the prognosis of patients with non-severe alcoholic hepatitis (Non-SAH). The study aimed to develop a new prognostic model for patients with especially Non-SAH.

METHODS

We extracted 316 hospitalized patients with alcoholic cirrhosis without severe alcoholic hepatitis, defined as Maddrey's discriminant function score lower than 32, from the retrospective Korean Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure (KACLiF) cohort to develop a new prognostic model (training set), and validated it in 419 patients from the prospective KACLiF cohort (validation set). Prognostic factors for death and liver transplantation were analyzed to construct a prognostic model.

RESULTS

Twenty-one and 24 patients died within 6 months in both sets, respectively. In the training set, the highest area under the curve (AUC) of conventional prognostic models was 0.765, 0.732, and 0.684 for 1-, 3-, and 6-month mortality, respectively. Refractory ascites, vasopressor use, and hyponatremia were independently associated with mortality of cirrhotic patients with Non-SAH. The new model consisted of four variables: past deterioration, neutrophil proportion > 70%, Na < 128 mmol/L, and vasopressor use. It showed the highest accuracy for short-term mortality in the training and validation sets (0.803 and 0.786; 0.797 and 0.776; and 0.789 and 0.721 for 1-, 3-, and 6-month mortality, respectively).

CONCLUSION

There is a group of patients with high risk among those classified as Non-SAH. The new model will help stratifying cirrhotic patients with Non-SAH more accurately in terms of prognosis. The patients with high Non-SAH score need to monitor closely and might be considered for preemptive liver transplantation.

TRIAL REGESTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02650011.

Hyponatremia in the Context of Liver Disease

Hyponatremia is common in patients with liver disease and is associated with increased mortality, morbidity, and a reduced quality of life. In liver transplantation, the inclusion of hyponatremia in organ allocation scores has reduced waitlist mortality. Portal hypertension and the resulting lowering of the effective arterial blood volume are important pathogenetic factors, but in most patients with liver disease, hyponatremia is multifactorial. Treatment requires a multifaceted approach that tries to reduce electrolyte-free water intake, restore urinary dilution, and increase nonelectrolyte solute excretion. Albumin therapy for hyponatremia is a peculiarity of advanced liver disease. Its use appears to be increasing, while the vaptans are currently only given in selected cases. Osmotic demyelination is a special concern in patients with liver disease. Serial checks of serum sodium concentrations and urine volume monitoring are mandatory.

Risk factors for the mortality of hepatitis B virus-associated acute-on-chronic liver failure: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis B virus-associated acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) has been confirmed as a prevalent form of end-stage liver disease in people subjected to chronic HBV infection. However, there has been rare in-depth research on the risk factors for the mortality of HBV-ACLF. This study aimed at determining the risk factors for the mortality of HBV-ACLF.

METHODS

The relevant research was selected from four electronic databases that have been published as of August 2023. The existing research was reviewed in accordance with the inclusion and exclusion criteria. The level of quality of previous research was evaluated using the Newcastle-Ottawa scale. Moreover, a pooled estimate of the odds ratios (ORs) with their associated 95% confidence intervals (CIs) was provided through a meta-analysis. The data were combined, and the risk variables that at least two studies had considered were analyzed. The publication bias was examined through Egger's test and Begg's test.

RESULTS

Twenty two studies that conformed to the inclusion criteria were selected from 560 trials. Eight risk variables in terms of HBV-ACLF mortality were determined, which covered INR (OR = 1.923, 95% CI = 1.664-2.221, P < 0.001), Monocytes (OR = 1.201, 95% CI = 1.113-1.296, P < 0.001), Cirrhosis (OR = 1.432, 95% CI = 1.210-1.696, P < 0.001), HE (OR = 2.553, 95% CI = 1.968-3.312, P < 0.001), HE grade (OR = 2.059, 95% CI = 1.561-2.717, P < 0.001), SBP (OR = 1.383, 95% CI = 1.080-1.769, P = 0.010), Hyponatremia (OR = 1.941, 95% CI = 1.614-2.334, P < 0.001), as well as HRS (OR = 2.610, 95% CI = 1.669-4.080, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The most significant risk factors for HBV-ACLF mortality comprise HRS, HE, and HE grade, followed by INR and hyponatremia. The Monocytes, cirrhosis, and SBP have been confirmed as the additional key risk factors for HBV-ACLF mortality.

Combined effects of hyponatremia and hepatic encephalopathy on inpatient mortality

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

Although hyponatremia and hepatic encephalopathy (HE) are known independent predictors of mortality, their combined effect is unknown. We investigated whether the inpatient mortality differed among patients with both hyponatremia and HE compared to those with either hyponatremia or HE alone.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In this retrospective study, data were extracted from the National Inpatient Sample (NIS) to identify US adults (aged ≥18 years) with cirrhosis between January 1st, 2016, and December 31st, 2017. We analyzed the effects of hyponatremia, HE, or a combination of hyponatremia and HE on inpatient mortality using logistic regression.

RESULTS

Among 309,841 cirrhosis-related admissions, 22,870 (7%) patients died during hospitalization. Those with a combination of hyponatremia and HE had higher mortality (14%) than those with HE only (11%), hyponatremia only (9%), and neither hyponatremia nor HE (6%) (p<0.001). When compared to patients without hyponatremia or HE, patients with both hyponatremia and HE had the highest odds (adjusted odds ratio or aOR) of inpatient mortality (aOR 1.90, 95% CI: 1.79 - 2.01) followed by patients with HE only (aOR 1.75, 95% CI: 1.69 - 1.82) and patients with hyponatremia only (aOR 1.17, 95% CI: 1.12 - 1.22). Patients with HE only had 50% higher odds of inpatient mortality when compared to those with hyponatremia only (aOR: 1.50, 95% CI: 1.43 - 1.57).

CONCLUSIONS

In this nationwide study, the presence of both hyponatremia and HE was associated with higher inpatient mortality than either hyponatremia or HE alone.

A model to predict inhospital mortality in patients with cirrhosis, ascites and hyponatremia

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Hypervolemic hyponatremia is a late complication of portal hypertension. Hyponatremia is associated with a higher mortality in hospitalized patients. In this study, we evaluated the risk factors for inhospital mortality and developed a mortality prediction model in patients with cirrhosis and hyponatremia.

METHODS

Using the national inpatient sample data for years 2016 and 2017, we identified cirrhotic patients hospitalized with ascites and hyponatremia (n = 9153). We identified independent risk factors of inhospital mortality and developed a prediction model in a training group and assessed its accuracy in a validation group. To enhance the clinical utility, we further stratified patients into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk mortality risk groups using cutoff points selected by decision tree analysis.

RESULTS

The inhospital mortality in our cohort was 10.2% (n = 846). Multivariable analysis showed that age at least 65 years, variceal bleeding, sepsis, coagulopathy, and acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF defined as two or more organ failures) were independent risk factors for mortality. The prediction model using these five risk factors had an AUROC of 0.80 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.78-0.82] for the training data and 0.83 (95% CI, 0.80-0.86) for the validation data. The mortality risks in the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups were 4% (95% CI, 3-4), 29% (95% CI, 28-33), and 43% (95% CI, 37-50), respectively.

CONCLUSION

We have developed a clinically meaningful inhospital prognostic model with excellent discrimination that will enable clinicians to risk stratify hospitalized patients with hyponatremia, ascites, and cirrhosis.

Prevalence and clinical significance of serum sodium variability in patients with acute-on-chronic liver diseases: a prospective multicenter study in China

Background

No reports exist regarding the prevalence of different Na levels and their relationship with 90-day prognosis in hospitalized patients with acute-on-chronic liver disease (AoCLD) in China. Therefore, the benefit of hyponatremia correction in AoCLD patients remains unclear.

Methods

We prospectively collected the data of 3970 patients with AoCLD from the CATCH-LIFE cohort in China. The prevalence of different Na levels (≤ 120; 120–135; 135–145; > 145) and their relationship with 90-day prognosis were analyzed. For hyponatremic patients, we measured Na levels on days 4 and 7 and compared their characteristics, based on whether hyponatremia was corrected.

Results

A total of 3880 patients were involved; 712 of those developed adverse outcomes within 90 days. There were 80 (2.06%) hypernatremic, 28 (0.72%) severe hyponatremic, and 813 (20.95%) mild hyponatremic patients at admission. After adjusting for all confounding factors, the risk of 90-day adverse outcomes decreased by 5% (odds ratio [OR] 0.95; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.93–0.97; p < 0.001), 24% (OR 0.76; 95% CI 0.70–0.84; p < 0.001), and 42% (OR 0.58; 95% CI 0.49–0.70; p < 0.001) as Na level increased by 1, 5, and 10 mmol/L, respectively. Noncorrection of hyponatremia on days 4 and 7 was associated with 2.05-fold (hazard ratio [HR], 2.05; 95% CI, 1.50–2.79; p < 0.001) and 1.46-fold (HR 1.46; 95% CI 1.05–2.02; p = 0.028) higher risk of adverse outcomes.

Conclusions

Hyponatremia was an independent risk factor for a poor 90-day prognosis in patients with AoCLD. Failure to correct hyponatremia in a week after admission was often associated with increased mortality. (ClinicalTrials.gov number: NCT02457637, NCT03641872).

Clinical Trial Numbers

This study is registered at Shanghai www.clinicaltrials.org (NCT02457637 and NCT03641872).

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12072-021-10282-8.

Clinical Implications, Evaluation, and Management of Hyponatremia in Cirrhosis

Hyponatremia is the most common electrolyte abnormality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis on Liver Transplantation (LT) waiting list. Most of these patients have dilutional or hypervolemic hyponatremia secondary to splanchnic vasodilatation. Excessive secretion of the antidiuretic hormone also plays an important role. Hypervolemic hyponatremia is commonly associated with refractory ascites, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, and hepatic encephalopathy. Although uncommon, the use of diuretics and laxatives can cause hypovolemic hyponatremia that is characterized by the striking absence of ascites or pedal edema. Clinical features are often nonspecific and depend on the acuity of onset rather than the absolute value of serum sodium. Symptoms may be subtle, including nausea, lethargy, weakness, or anorexia. However, rarely patients may present with confusion, seizures, psychosis, or coma. Treatment includes discontinuation of diuretics, beta-blockers, and albumin infusion. Hypertonic saline (3%) infusion may be used in patients with very low serum sodium (<110 mmol/L) or when patients present with seizures or coma. Short-term use of Vasopressin (V₂) receptor antagonists may also be used to normalize sodium levels prior to LT. However, all these measures may be futile, and LT remains the definite treatment in these patients to improve survival. In this review, we describe the classification, pathogenesis of hyponatremia, and its clinical implications in patients with cirrhosis. Approach to these patients along with management will also be discussed briefly.

The prevalence and prognosis of hyponatraemia in non-Hodgkin lymphoma-associated hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis

Non-Hodgkin lymphoma associated hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (NHL-HLH) in adult secondary HLH is a common and universally highly lethal critical disorder. Hyponatraemia is the most common electrolyte disorder in the critical illness setting and acts as a negative prognostic factor. The aim of our study was to evaluate the prognostic role of hyponatraemia among patients with NHL-HLH. The results showed that 81 (52.9%) patients had hyponatraemia. After a median follow up 47 (range 14-180) days, there were 72 (88.9%) cumulative deaths in hyponatraemia group while 50 (69.4%) in normonatremia group. After adjustment for confounders, multivariate analysis revealed that hyponatraemia was an independent prognostic factor for OS (HR:1.51, 95% CI: 1.03-2.20; p = 0.033). Restricted cubic spline confirmed a linear and positive association between serum sodium and the risk of mortality. Hyponatraemia is relatively frequent in NHL-HLH. As a readily available biomarker in clinical routine, it was a promising prognostic predictor for NHL-HLH.

Comparative accuracy of prognostic models for short-term mortality in acute-on-chronic liver failure patients: CAP-ACLF

BACKGROUND

Multiple predictive models of mortality exist for acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) patients that often create confusion during decision-making. We studied the natural history and evaluated the performance of prognostic models in ACLF patients.

METHODS

Prospectively collected data of ACLF patients from APASL-ACLF Research Consortium (AARC) was analyzed for 30-day outcomes. The models evaluated at days 0, 4, and 7 of presentation for 30-day mortality were: AARC (model and score), CLIF-C (ACLF score, and OF score), NACSELD-ACLF (model and binary), SOFA, APACHE-II, MELD, MELD-Lactate, and CTP. Evaluation parameters were discrimination (c-indices), calibration [accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and positive/negative predictive values (PPV/NPV)], Akaike/Bayesian Information Criteria (AIC/BIC), Nagelkerke-R², relative prediction errors, and odds ratios.

RESULTS

Thirty-day survival of the cohort (n = 2864) was 64.9% and was lowest for final-AARC-grade-III (32.8%) ACLF. Performance parameters of all models were best at day 7 than at day 4 or day 0 (p < 0.05 for C-indices of all models except NACSELD-ACLF). On comparison, day-7 AARC model had the numerically highest c-index 0.872, best accuracy 84.0%, PPV 87.8%, R² 0.609 and lower prediction errors by 10-50%. Day-7 NACSELD-ACLF-binary was the simple model (minimum AIC/BIC 12/17) with the highest odds (8.859) and sensitivity (100%) but with a lower PPV (70%) for mortality. Patients with day-7 AARC score > 12 had the lowest 30-day survival (5.7%).

CONCLUSIONS

APASL-ACLF is often a progressive disease, and models assessed up to day 7 of presentation reliably predict 30-day mortality. Day-7 AARC model is a statistically robust tool for classifying risk of death and accurately predicting 30-day outcomes with relatively lower prediction errors. Day-7 AARC score > 12 may be used as a futility criterion in APASL-ACLF patients.

Hypernatremia and moderate-to-severe hyponatremia are independent predictors of mortality in septic patients at emergency department presentation: A sub-group analysis of the need-speed trial

STUDY OBJECTIVE

Early risk stratification of septic patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) is challenging. The aim of the study was to evaluate the prognostic role of plasmatic sodium level (_PNa⁺) derangements at ED presentation in septic patients.

METHODS

According to _PNa⁺ at ED presentation patients were divided in eunatremic (136-145 mEq/L), hypernatremic (>145 mEq/L) and hyponatremic (<136 mEq/L). Hyponatremic patients were subsequently divided in mild (130-135 mEq/L), moderate (125-129 mEq/L) and severe (<125 mEq/L). 7 and 30-day mortality was evaluated according to _PNa⁺ derangements and the degree of hyponatremia. The same analysis was then performed only in respiratory tract infection-related (RTI-r) sepsis patients.

RESULTS

879 septic patients were included in this analysis, 40.3% had hyponatremia, 5.7% hypernatremia. Hypernatremia showed higher mortality rates at both endpoints compared to eunatremia and hyponatremia (p<0.0001 for both). Eunatremia and mild hyponatremia were compared vs. moderate-to-severe hyponatremia showing a significant difference in terms of 7 and 30-day survival (p = 0.004 and p = 0.007, respectively). The Cox proportional model identified as independent predictors of 7 and 30-day mortality moderate-to-severe hyponatremia (HR 4.89[2.38-10.03] and 1.79[1.07-3.01], respectively) and hypernatremia (HR 3.52[1.58-7.82] and 2.14[1.17-3.92], respectively). The same analysis was performed in patients with respiratory tract infection-related sepsis (n = 549), with similar results.

CONCLUSION

Both hypernatremia and moderate-to-severe hyponatremia at ED presentation independently predict mortality in septic patients, allowing early risk stratification and suggesting more aggressive therapeutic strategies.

Hyponatremia in Cirrhosis: An Update

Hyponatremia is frequently seen in patients with ascites secondary to advanced cirrhosis and portal hypertension. Although not apparent in the early stages of cirrhosis, the progression of cirrhosis and portal hypertension leads to splanchnic vasodilation, and this leads to the activation of compensatory mechanisms such as renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS), sympathetic nervous system, and antidiuretic hormone (ADH) to ameliorate low circulatory volume. The net effect is the avid retention of sodium and water to compensate for the low effective circulatory volume, resulting in the development of ascites. These compensatory mechanisms lead to impairment of the kidneys to eliminate solute-free water in decompensated cirrhosis. Nonosmotic secretion of antidiuretic hormone (ADH), also known as arginine vasopressin, further worsens excess water retention and thereby hyponatremia. The management of hyponatremia in this setting is a challenge as conventional therapies for hyponatremia including fluid restriction and correction of hypokalemia are frequently inefficacious. In this review, we discuss the pathophysiology, complications, and various treatment modalities, including albumin infusion, selective vasopressin receptor antagonists, or hypertonic saline for patients with severe hyponatremia and those awaiting liver transplantation.

Combination and sequential evaluation of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) and hyponatremia and prognosis in cirrhotic patients

BACKGROUND

Few studies have evaluated whether combination and sequential evaluation of ACLF (acute-on-chronic liver failure) and hyponatremia aids prognosis.

AIMS

Describe clinical course and determine prognostic capability of assessing ACLF and hyponatremia at specific time-points.

METHODS

Prospective study with inclusion of 376 patients. ACLF and hyponatremia were evaluated at days 1 and 7 and classified as persistent, transient, de novo or absent. Follow-up was 90 days.

RESULTS

At inclusion, ACLF was diagnosed in 99 patients. Reversal was observed in 57 patients and was associated with lower creatinine and ACLF grade. De novo ACLF developed in 19 patients, and MELD (model of end-stage liver disease) score and lower albumin were predictive factors. Hyponatremia was present in 76 patients (persistent, transient and de novo in 27, 24 and 25 respectively). ACLF at D7 had the lowest survival compared to transient or no ACLF (21, 57 and 80%, p < 0.0001). Hyponatremia at admission was associated with low survival (35%) whereas survival was higher for de novo or absent cases (70%), p < 0.001. In multivariate analysis ACLF at D7 and hyponatremia at D1 were predictors of survival.

CONCLUSION

ACLF and hyponatremia are dynamic and evaluation of both conditions at different time-points identifies patients at higher risk of short-term mortality.

Osmotic Shifts, Cerebral Edema, and Neurologic Deterioration in Severe Hepatic Encephalopathy

OBJECTIVES

We sought to determine the effect of acute electrolyte and osmolar shifts on brain volume and neurologic function in patients with liver failure and severe hepatic encephalopathy.

DESIGN

Retrospective analysis of brain CT scans and clinical data.

SETTING

Tertiary care hospital ICUs.

PATIENTS

Patients with acute or acute-on-chronic liver failure and severe hepatic encephalopathy.

INTERVENTIONS

Clinically indicated CT scans and serum laboratory studies.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Change in intracranial cerebrospinal fluid volume between sequential CT scans was measured as a biomarker of acute brain volume change. Corresponding changes in serum osmolality, chemistry measurements, and Glasgow Coma Scale were determined. Associations with cerebrospinal fluid volume change and Glasgow Coma Scale change for initial volume change assessments were identified by Spearman's correlations (rs) and regression models. Consistency of associations with repeated assessments was evaluated using generalized estimating equations. Forty patients were included. Median baseline osmolality was elevated (310 mOsm/Kg [296-321 mOsm/Kg]) whereas sodium was normal (137 mEq/L [134-142 mEq/L]). Median initial osmolality change was 9 mOsm/kg (5-17 mOsm/kg). Neuroimaging consistent with increased brain volume occurred in 27 initial assessments (68%). Cerebrospinal fluid volume change was more strongly correlated with osmolality (r = 0.70; p = 4 × 10) than sodium (r = 0.28; p = 0.08) change. Osmolality change was independently associated with Glasgow Coma Scale change (p = 1 × 10) and cerebrospinal fluid volume change (p = 2.7 × 10) in initial assessments and in generalized estimating equations using all 103 available assessments.

CONCLUSIONS

Acute decline in osmolality was associated with brain swelling and neurologic deterioration in severe hepatic encephalopathy. Minimizing osmolality decline may avoid neurologic deterioration.

Pathogenesis of cerebral edema in patients with acute renal and liver failure and the role of the nephrologist in the management

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Acute liver failure (ALF) is a severe and complex illness and one of the most daunting conditions managed in the ICU. Because the renal care is intertwined with multiple disciplines, the aim of this review is to examine the multifactorial pathogenesis of cerebral edema in ALF, covering basic established facts as well as recent advances in our understanding of this condition.

RECENT FINDINGS

Acetaminophen remains the most common cause of ALF in the United States and many European countries. The incidence of cerebral edema continues to decline owing to earlier detection and improved management. The pathogenesis of cerebral edema has shifted from a unifactorial hypothesis involving the failed liver to a multifactorial cause. Recent evidence focuses on the role of liver-induced systemic inflammation and its implication in increasing the permeability of the blood-brain barrier. The role of brain aquaporin-4 in mediating water entry into the brain is further clarified. Controversial data regarding the effect of acute kidney injury on the brain emerged. Hyponatremia has been shown to worsen the outcome in acute-on-chronic liver failure patients thus validating findings in animal models. New evidence shed the light on the changes in serum osmolality and potential tissue hypoxia during continuous renal replacement therapy and points to the risks associated with such therapy.

SUMMARY

ALF is a severe systemic illness that is potentially reversible. Understanding the interaction between the multiple failed organs will help the nephrologist provide well tolerated and efficient care.

The Impact of Albumin Use on Resolution of Hyponatremia in Hospitalized Patients With Cirrhosis

OBJECTIVES

Hyponatremia is associated with poor outcomes in cirrhosis independent of MELD. While intravenous albumin has been used in small series, its role in hyponatremia is unclear. The aim of this study is to determine the effect of albumin therapy on hyponatremia.

METHODS

Hospitalized cirrhotic patients included in the NACSELD (North American Consortium for End-Stage Liver Disease) cohort with hyponatremia (Na <130mmol/L) were divided into those receiving intravenous albumin or not. Determinants of hyponatremia resolution (Na ≥135 meq/L) and 30-day survival were analyzed using regression and ANCOVA models.

RESULTS

Overall, 2435 patients, of whom 1126 had admission hyponatremia, were included. Of these, 777 received 225 (IQR 100,400) g of albumin, while 349 did not. Patients given albumin had a higher admission MELD score, and serum creatinine and lower admission Na and mean arterial pressure (MAP). However they experienced a higher maximum Na and hyponatremia resolution (69% vs 61%, p = 0.008) compared to those who did not. On regression, delta Na was independently associated with admission creatinine, MAP and albumin use. On ANCOVA with logistic regression, there was a significant difference in hyponatremia resolution between those who did or did not receive albumin, even after adjustment for admission Na and GFR (85.41% vs 44.78%, p = 0.0057, OR: 1.50 95% CI: 1.13-2.00). Independent predictors of 30-day survival were hyponatremia resolution, age, ACLF, and admission GFR.

CONCLUSION

Hospitalized patients with cirrhosis and hyponatremia who received intravenous albumin had a higher rate of hyponatremia resolution independent of renal function and baseline sodium levels, which was in turn associated with a better 30-day survival.

Hyponatremia is a potential predictor of progression in radiation-induced brain necrosis: a retrospective study

Background

To investigate the prognostic value of hyponatremia, defined as serum sodium level < 135 mEq/L, in radiation-induced brain necrosis (RN) patients.

Methods

We performed a retrospective analysis of the RN patients (The patients included in our study had a history of primary cancers including nasopharyngeal carcinoma/glioma/oral cancer and received radiotherapy previously and then were diagnosed with RN) treated in Sun yat-sen Memorial Hospital from January 2013 to August 2015. Patients without cranial magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan and serum sodium data were excluded. Progression was identified when the increase of edema area ≥ 25% on the MRI taken in six months comparing with those taken at the baseline. Factors that might associate with prognosis of RN were collected. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to identify potential predictors.

Results

We total included 135 patients, 32 (23.7%) of them with hyponatremia and 36 (26.7%) with RN progression. Percentage of progression was roughly three fold in hyponatremia patients compared with nonhyponatremia patients (53.1% versus 18.4%), translating into a 5-fold increased odds ratio (P <  0.001). Multivariable analyses identified hyponatremia as a potential predictor of progression (OR, 4.82; 95% CI [1.94–11.94]; P = 0.001).

Conclusions

Hyponatremia was identified as a potential predictor for the progression of patients with RN. Hyponatremia management in patients with RN should be paid much more concern in clinical practice.

Prediction model of the progression of patients with acute deterioration of hepatitis B virus-related chronic liver disease to acute-on-chronic liver failure

This study aimed to establish a new model for predicting acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) (defined by the Chinese Medical Association), which potentially occurs among patients with acute deterioration (AD) of hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related chronic liver disease (CLD).A total of 754 patients with AD of HBV-related CLD (total bilirubin (TBIL) > 51.3 μmol/L and prothrombin activity (PTA) < 60%, 40% < PTA < 60% when TBIL ≥ 171.1 μmol/L) were retrospectively analyzed and divided into a training cohort (580 patients) and a validation cohort (174 patients). The ACLF occurrence probability of these patients was statistically analyzed within 4 weeks. In the training cohort, multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to determine the independent predictors of ACLF occurrence and to develop a new prediction model. The validation cohort was utilized to verify and evaluate the value of the new prediction model.Within 4 weeks, 9.9% of the patients progressed to ACLF (12.0 ± 6.7 days). The new prediction model was characterized by R = 3.090 + 0.035 × Age (years) - 0.050 × PTA (%) + 0.005 × TBIL (μmol/L) + 0.044 × D/T (%) - 0.072 × Na (mmol/L) + 0.180 × HBV DNA (log10IU/mL). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of the training and validation cohorts in the new model were higher than those in the model for end-stage liver disease.The new prediction model could be used by clinicians to recognize patients with AD of HBV-related CLD with high risks of progressing to ACLF.

Pediatric CLIF-SOFA score is the best predictor of 28-day mortality in children with decompensated chronic liver disease

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Early identification of children with decompensated chronic liver disease (DCLD) at risk of short-term mortality helps improve outcome. We aimed to evaluate the predictors of outcome and role of Child-Pugh, pediatric end-stage liver disease (PELD) and pediatric chronic liver failure sequential organ failure assessment (pCLIF-SOFA) score for prognosticating 28-day mortality in children with DCLD.

METHODS

DCLD children were prospectively evaluated with a clinico-laboratory proforma and followed for 28 days to determine outcome. Child-Pugh, PELD and pCLIF-SOFA were calculated at admission. Univariate and multivariate analysis was performed to identify the best predictors of outcome.

RESULTS

A total of 110 children (74 boys, 96 [4-204] months) were enrolled and 37 (33.6%) died at 28 days. Significant risk factors for mortality were a higher international normalized ratio (hazard ratio [HR] 1.17; 95% CI 1.04-1.31; p <0.001) and bilirubin (HR 1.04; 95% CI 1.01-1.08; p <0.001), lower albumin (HR 0.46; 95% CI 0.27-0.77; p = 0.03) and sodium (HR 0.93; 95% CI 0.89-0.98; p = 0.01), absence of treatable etiology (HR 2.00; 95% CI 1.40-2.87; p = 0.001) and presence of organ failure (HR 3.22; 95% CI 1.98-10.58; p <0.001). Organ failure and serum sodium were independent predictors of poor outcome on multivariate analysis. pCLIF-SOFA (16 [9-22] vs. 9 [5-15]), Child-Pugh (11 [9-15] vs. 10 [8-14]) and PELD (22.2 [7.5-45.3] vs. 15.3 [4.5-23.9]) scores were significantly higher in non-survivors. The area under the curve was 0.977 for pCLIF-SOFA, 0.815 for Child-Pugh score, and 0.741 for PELD score. A pCLIF-SOFA score of ≥11 identified 28-day mortality with a sensitivity and specificity of 94.9% and 91.5%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Thirty-four percent of children with DCLD have a poor short-term outcome. Organ failure and low serum sodium are independent predictors of outcome. pCLIF-SOFA performs better than Child-Pugh and PELD in prognostication of 28-day mortality. Our study supports the use of scores based on organ failure in prognosticating children with DCLD.

LAY SUMMARY

The ability to predict the course of a disease is an important part of the assessment, enabling timely interventions that improve outcomes. We evaluated the outcome (death vs. survival) and compared three different scoring systems for their ability to predict mortality within 28 days in children with decompensated chronic liver disease (DCLD). One-third of children with DCLD died within 28 days and the pediatric chronic liver failure sequential organ failure assessment score, which considers the main organ systems of the body (lungs, liver, brain, kidney, blood and cardiac) fared better for identification of children with a poor outcome than the Child-Pugh and pediatric end-stage liver disease score which comprise of only liver-related parameters. Our study supports the use of scores based on organ failure in prognosticating children with DCLD.

Bacterial Infection and Predictors of Mortality in Patients with Autoimmune Liver Disease-Associated Acute-On-Chronic Liver Failure

OBJECTIVE

To date, few studies are available on autoimmune liver disease-associated acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). The aim of this study is to investigate bacterial infection and predictors of mortality in these patients.

METHODS

We retrospectively studied patients with autoimmune liver disease from August 2012 to August 2017. Clinical data of the patients were retrieved for analysis.

RESULTS

There were 53 ACLF patients and 53 patients without ACLF in this study. The ACLF group had a higher prevalence of complications (P < 0.05). The 28-day and 90-day mortality rates were also obviously high in patients with ACLF (38.3% and 74.5%, resp.) (P < 0.05). No predictor was significantly associated with 28-day and 90-day transplant-free mortality. In 53ACLF patients, 40 (75.5%) patients showed bacterial infection. ACLF patients with bacterial infection showed high Child-Pugh score, MELD score, CLIF-SOFA score, 28-day mortality, and 90-day mortality (P > 0.05). Moreover, C-reactive protein (CRP) using 12.15 mg/L cut-off value proved to be more accurate than procalcitonin in identifying patients with infection.

CONCLUSIONS

Autoimmune liver disease-associated ACLF showed more complications and high mortality. Bacterial infection patients displayed a more severe condition than those without infection. Elevated CRP is an accurate marker for diagnosing bacterial infection in autoimmune liver disease-associated ACLF patients.

Characteristics of infection and its impact on short-term outcome in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure

Bacterial infections are an important cause of mortality in liver failure. However, the type of infection, predictors of infection, and their impact on outcomes in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) are limited.A total of 389 patients with ACLF were admitted in this retrospective, corhort study. Once admitted, clinical data including first infection site, type (community-acquired, healthcare-associated, or nosocomial), and second infection occurrence during hospitalization were collected. The outcome was mortality within 90 days. Multivariable logistic regression models were preformed to predict second infection development and 90-day mortality. Survival probability curves were calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method.Among 389 patients, 316 (81.2%) patients had infection. The 90-day mortality of patients with and without infection was 52.2% and 16.4%, respectively (P <.001). The most common first infection was healthcare associated (51.3%), followed by nosocomial (30.1%) and community-acquired infections (18.7%). Respiratory tract infection, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, and urinary tract infection were most prevalent. Gram-positive organism was more frequently seen than gram-negative organisms. Of note, fungi accounted for 15.9% of the total infection cases. During hospitalization, 26.6% patients developed second infections. The 90-day mortality of patients developed or did not develop a second infection were 67.9% and 46.6%, respectively (P <.001). Independent predictors of 90-day mortality in infected patients with ACLF were age, white blood cell (WBC) count, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, hepatic encephalopathy (HE), and second infection.Infections (regardless of first or second infection) can increase the 90-day mortality significantly in patients with ACLF. And age, WBC count, MELD score, HE, and the presence of second infection are independent risk factors affecting 90-day mortality in patients with ACLF showing infection.

Electrolyte and Acid-Base Disturbances in End-Stage Liver Disease: A Physiopathological Approach

Electrolyte and acid-base disturbances are frequent in patients with end-stage liver disease; the underlying physiopathological mechanisms are often complex and represent a diagnostic and therapeutic challenge to the physician. Usually, these disorders do not develop in compensated cirrhotic patients, but with the onset of the classic complications of cirrhosis such as ascites, renal failure, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis and variceal bleeding, multiple electrolyte, and acid-base disturbances emerge. Hyponatremia parallels ascites formation and is a well-known trigger of hepatic encephalopathy; its management in this particular population poses a risky challenge due to the high susceptibility of cirrhotic patients to osmotic demyelination. Hypokalemia is common in the setting of cirrhosis: multiple potassium wasting mechanisms both inherent to the disease and resulting from its management make these patients particularly susceptible to potassium depletion even in the setting of normokalemia. Acid-base disturbances range from classical respiratory alkalosis to high anion gap metabolic acidosis, almost comprising the full acid-base spectrum. Because most electrolyte and acid-base disturbances are managed in terms of their underlying trigger factors, a systematic physiopathological approach to their diagnosis and treatment is required.

Treatment of Cirrhosis-Associated Hyponatremia with Midodrine and Octreotide

BACKGROUND

Hyponatremia in the setting of cirrhosis is a common electrolyte disorder with few therapeutic options. The free water retention is due to non-osmotic vasopressin secretion resulting from the cirrhosis-associated splanchnic vasodilatation. Therefore, vasoconstrictive therapy may correct this electrolyte abnormality. The aim of this study was to assess the efficacy of midodrine and octreotide as a therapeutic approach to increasing urinary electrolyte-free water clearance (EFWC) in the correction of cirrhosis-associated hyponatremia.

METHODS

This observational study consisted of 10 patients with cirrhosis-associated hyponatremia. Hypovolemia was ruled out as the cause of the hyponatremia with a 48-h albumin challenge (25 g IV q6 h). Patients whose hyponatremia failed to improve with albumin challenge were started on midodrine and octreotide at 10 mg po tid and 100 μg sq tid, respectively, with rapid up-titration as tolerated to respective maximal doses of 15 mg tid and 200 μg tid within the first 24 h. We assessed urinary EFWC and serum sodium concentration before and 72 h after treatment.

RESULTS

Pretreatment serum sodium levels ranged from 119 to 133 mmol/L. The mean pretreatment serum sodium concentration ± SEM was 124 mmol/L ± 1.6 vs 130 mmol/L ± 1.5 posttreatment (p = 0.00001). The mean pretreatment urinary EFWC ± SEM was 0.33 L ± 0.07 vs 0.82 L ± 0.11 posttreatment (p = 0.0003).

CONCLUSION

Our data show a statistically significant increase in serum sodium concentration and urinary EFWC with the use of midodrine and octreotide in the treatment of cirrhosis-associated hyponatremia.

Nucleos(t)ide analogs improve long-term prognosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B-associated liver failure

AIM

Chronic hepatitis B-associated liver failure (CHB-LF) is associated with high mortality. Antiviral therapy with nucleoside and nucleotide analogs (NUCs) has been reported to improve the short-term prognosis of patients with CHB-LF. However, the long-term effects of the therapy remain unclear. We undertook a cohort study to investigate the long-term effect of NUC-based antiviral therapy in patients with CHB-LF.

METHODS

A total of 976 patients with CHB-LF were enrolled between January 2001 and December 2009 at the Liver Disease Center of Ningbo No. 2 Hospital (Ningbo, China). The patients were divided into the NUC treatment group (n = 412) and control group (n = 564). The propensity score matching method was used to match the patients between the two groups to equilibrate the covariates. Survival analysis was carried out using the matched samples. The Cox proportional hazard model was used for the analysis of prognostic factors.

RESULTS

After propensity matching, 262 pairs were successfully matched. No statistically significant difference was observed in the baseline characteristics of the matching pairs (P > 0.05). The long-term survival rate and survival duration of the NUC treatment group were higher than that of the control group (P < 0.05). Gender, age, Model for End-stage Liver Disease values, cholinesterase levels, white blood cell counts, hepatic encephalopathy, concomitant infection, and treatment with NUCs were found to be the independent factors associated with long-term prognosis.

CONCLUSION

Antiviral therapy with NUCs may reduce the mortality rate and improve the long-term prognosis of patients with CHB-LF.

Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Determining individual risk of short-term mortality in patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF) is a difficult task. We aimed to develop and externally validate a prognostic nomogram for ACHBLF patients.

METHODS

The nomogram was built to estimate the probability of 30-day, 60-day, 90-day, and 60-month survival based on an internal cohort of 246 patients with ACHBLF. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of nomogram were determined by a concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, and time-dependent receiver operating characteristics (tdROC), comparing with model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score. The results were validated using bootstrap resampling and an external cohort of 138 patients. Furthermore, we plotted decision curves to evaluate the clinical usefulness of nomogram.

RESULTS

Independent factors derived from multivariable Cox analysis of training cohort to predict mortality were age, total bilirubin, serum sodium, and prothrombin activity, which were all assembled into nomogram. The calibration curves for probability of survival showed optimal agreement between nomogram prediction and actual observation. The C-index of nomogram was higher than that of MELD score for predicting survival (30-day, 0.809 vs 0.717, P < 0.001; 60-day, 0.792 vs 0.685, P < 0.001; 90-day, 0.779 vs 0.678, P < 0.001; 6-month, 0.781 vs 0.677, P < 0.001). Additionally, tdROC and decision curves also showed that nomogram was superior to MELD score. The results were confirmed in validation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

The prognostic nomogram provided an individualized risk estimate of short-term survival in patients with ACHBLF, offering to clinicians to improve their abilities to assess patient prognosis.

Presumptive Iatrogenic Microcystin-Associated Liver Failure and Encephalopathy in a Holsteiner Gelding

An 8‐year‐old Holsteiner gelding was presented for evaluation of anorexia, obtundation, icterus, and mild colic signs of 48 hours duration. History, physical examination, and initial diagnostics were suggestive of hepatic disease and encephalopathy. Microcystin toxicosis was suspected based on historical administration of a cyanobacteria supplement, associated serum biochemistry abnormalities, and characteristic histopathological changes. Microcystin contamination was confirmed in both supplement containers fed to the horse. Fulminant hepatic failure and encephalopathy progressed resulting in euthanasia. Necropsy findings were consistent with microcystin induced liver failure.

Acute Kidney Injury Classification for Critically Ill Cirrhotic Patients: A Comparison of the KDIGO, AKIN, and RIFLE Classifications

Critically ill cirrhotic patients have high mortality rates, particularly when they present with acute kidney injury (AKI) on admission. The Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) group aimed to standardize the definition of AKI and recently published a new AKI classification. However, the efficacy of the KDIGO classification for predicting outcomes of critically ill cirrhotic patients is unclear. We prospectively enrolled 242 cirrhotic patients from a 10-bed specialized hepatogastroenterology intensive care unit (ICU) in a 2000-bed tertiary-care referral hospital. Demographic parameters and clinical variables on day 1 of admission were prospectively recorded. The overall in-hospital mortality rate was 62.8%. Liver diseases were usually attributed to hepatitis B viral infection (26.9%). The major cause of ICU admission was upper gastrointestinal bleeding (38.0%). Our result showed that the KDIGO classification had better discriminatory power than RIFLE and AKIN criteria in predicting in-hospital mortality. Cumulative survival rates at the 6-month after hospital discharge differed significantly between patients with and without AKI on ICU admission day. In summary, we identified that the outcome prediction performance of KDIGO classification is superior to that of AKIN or RIFLE classification in critically ill cirrhotic patients.

Early warning and clinical outcome prediction of acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) associated acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is an increasingly recognized fatal liver disease encompassing a severe acute exacerbation of liver function in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Despite the introduction of an artificial liver support system and antiviral therapy, the short-term prognosis of HBV-ACLF is still extremely poor unless emergency liver transplantation is performed. In such a situation, stopping or slowing the progression of CHB to ACLF at an early stage is the most effective way of reducing the morbidity and mortality of HBV-ACLF. It is well-known that the occurrence and progression of HBV-ACLF is associated with many factors, and the outcomes of HBV-ACLF patients can be significantly improved if timely and appropriate interventions are provided. In this review, we highlight recent developments in early warning and clinical outcome prediction in patients with HBV-ACLF and provide an outlook for future research in this field.

Comparison of five models for end-stage liver disease in predicting the survival rate of patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma

Prognosis of patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is under expectation. Life expectancy more than 3 months is one inclusion criteria for molecular targeted drugs in clinical trials. The main purpose of this research is to compare Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) and four MELD-based prognostic models in predicting the survival rate of advanced HCC patients. One hundred eighty-three patients with advanced HCC who were not amendable to standard anti-tumor therapy were retrospectively analyzed. Data were collected to classify patients according to MELD, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease with the incorporation of serum sodium (MELD-NA), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease to ascites and sodium (MELD-AS), integrated Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (iMELD), and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease to sodium (MESO) scores at diagnosis. 1-, 3-, and 6-month survivals were the end points used in the analysis. When predicting 1-month survival, MELD-AS, MELD, and MESO were the top 3 ranking staging systems. When predicting 3-month survival, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of MELD-AS is significantly higher than that of the other models (P < 0.05). When predicting 6-month survival, AUCs of MELD-AS and MELD-NA are significantly higher than those of the other models (P < 0.05). Cutoff point of MELD-AS is 23.11 with 40.5 % sensitivity and 93.8 % specificity at 1 month, 9.5 with 76.9 % sensitivity and 59.5 % specificity at 3 months, and 18.5 with 27.0 % sensitivity and 89.1 % specificity at 6 months. MELD-based scores of death group are significantly higher than those of survivors within 1 and 3 months (P < 0.001). Independent prognostic factors identified by multivariate analysis included persistent ascites, serum sodium, and thrombosis. MELD-AS is the best model in the prediction of short and intermediate survival among the five models for end-stage liver disease analyzed for Chinese advanced HCC patients.

Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure

Over the past 2 decades, the concept of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) has been proposed as an alternate path in the natural history of decompensated cirrhosis. ACLF thus is characterized by the presence of a precipitating event (identified or unidentified) in subjects with underlying chronic liver disease leading to rapid progression of liver injury and ending in multi-organ dysfunction characterized by high short-term mortality. Multiple organ failure and an increased risk for mortality are key to the diagnosis of ACLF. The prevalence of ACLF ranges from 24% to 40% in hospitalized patients. The pathophysiological basis of ACLF can be explained using the following 4-part model: predisposing event, injury caused by a precipitating event, response to injury, and organ failure. Although several mathematic scores have been proposed for identifying outcomes with ACLF, it is as yet unclear whether these organ failure scores are truly prognostic or only reflective of the dying process. Treatment paradigms continue to evolve but consist of early recognition, supportive intensive care, and consideration of liver transplantation before onset of irreversible multiple organ failure.