Numerical modeling of mosquito population dynamics of Aedes aegypti

Application of reaction-diffusion equations for modeling human and breeding site attraction movement behavior of Aedes aegypti mosquito

This paper shows how biological population dynamic models in the form of coupled reaction-diffusion equations with nonlinear reaction terms can be applied to heterogeneous landscapes. The presented systems of coupled partial differential equations (PDEs) combine the dispersal of disease-vector mosquitoes and the spread of the disease in a human population. Realistic biological dispersal behavior is taken into account by applying chemotaxis terms for the attraction to the human host and the attraction of suitable breeding sites. These terms are capable of generating the complex active movement patterns of mosquitoes along the gradients of the attractants. The nonlinear initial boundary value problems are solved numerically for geometries of heterogeneous landscapes, which have been imported from geographic information system data to construct a general-purpose finite-element solver for systems of coupled PDEs. The method is applied to the dispersal of the dengue disease vector for Aedes aegypti in a small-scale rural setting consisting of small houses and different breeding sites, and to a large-scale section of the suburban zone of a metropolitan area in Vietnam. Numerical simulations illustrate how the setup of model equations and geographic information can be used for the assessment of control measures, including the spraying patterns of pesticides and biological control by inducing male sterility.

Mosquito populations and human social behavior: A spatially explicit agent-based model

Some mosquitoes are vectors for disease transmission to human populations. Aedes aegypti, the main vector for dengue in Argentina, mainly breeds in artificial containers as it is strongly adapted to urban environments. This highlights the relevance of understanding human social behavior to design successful vector control campaigns. We developed a model of mosquito populations that considers their main biological and behavioral features and incorporates parameters that model human behavior in relation to water container disposal. We performed extensive numerical simulations to study the variability of adult and aquatic mosquito populations when various protocols are applied, changing the effectiveness and frequency of water bucket disposal and the delay in the availability of water containers for breeding. We found an effectiveness threshold value above which it is possible to significantly limit mosquito dispersal. Interestingly, a nonsynchronized discard frequency, more attainable by human populations, was more efficient than a synchronized one to reduce the aquatic mosquito population. Scenarios with random delays in the availability of water containers indicate that it is not decisive to have a fixed time delay for the entire population, which is more realistic as it mimics a wider range of human behaviors. This simple model could help design dengue prevention campaigns aiming at mosquito population control.

Survivorship-Reducing Effect of Propylene Glycol on Vector Mosquito Populations and Its Potential Use in Attractive Toxic Sugar Baits

Simple Summary

Mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) spread disease and pose a significant risk to public health around the world. While there are currently many control measures available, many are typically unsafe for humans and other animals, and they are becoming less effective against mosquitoes. We tested a compound called propylene glycol (1,2 propanediol) for its toxicity to three species of mosquitoes that serve as vectors of human pathogens. Propylene glycol is a compound that the FDA has designated as generally regarded as safe (GRAS) for human consumption, meaning it is approved for use in everyday household products. Through a series of assays in which we fed mosquitoes propylene glycol, we found that this compound is highly toxic to all three mosquito species examined and can drastically reduce the survivorship of laboratory populations. Our results suggest that propylene glycol could be a safe and effective substance to be used in the context of attractive toxic sugar baits (ATSBs) as a means of controlling mosquitoes near human habitations.

Abstract

Arthropod control mechanisms are a vital part of public health measures around the world as many insect species serve as vectors for devastating human diseases. Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus, 1762) is a widely distributed, medically important mosquito species that transmits viruses such as yellow fever, Dengue, and Zika. Many traditional control mechanisms have become less effective due to insecticide resistance or exhibit unwanted off-target effects, and, consequently, there is a need for novel solutions. The use of attractive toxic sugar baits (ATSBs) has increased in recent years, though the toxic elements are often harmful to humans and other vertebrates. Therefore, we are investigating propylene glycol, a substance that is generally regarded as safe (GRAS) for human consumption. Using a series of feeding assays, we found that propylene glycol is highly toxic to Ae. aegypti adults and a single day of exposure significantly reduces the survivorship of test populations compared with controls. The effects are more pronounced in males, drastically reducing their survivorship after one day of consumption. Additionally, the consumption of propylene glycol reduced the survivorship of two prominent disease vectors: Aedes albopictus (Skuse, 1894) and Culex pipiens (Linnaeus, 1758). These findings indicate that propylene glycol could be used as a safe and effective alternative to pesticides in an ATSB system.

Modeling the impact of genetically modified male mosquitoes in the spatial population dynamics of Aedes aegypti

The mosquito Aedes aegypti is the primary vector of diseases such as dengue, Zika, chikungunya, and yellow fever. Improving control techniques requires a better understanding of the mosquito’s life cycle, including spatial population dynamics in endemic regions. One of the most promising techniques consists of introducing genetically modified male mosquitoes. Several models proposed to describe this technique present mathematical issues or rely on numerous parameters, making their application challenging to real-world situations. We propose a model describing the spatial population dynamics of the Aedes aegypti in the presence of genetically modified males. This model presents some mathematical improvements compared to the literature allowing deeper mathematical analysis. Moreover, this model relies on few parameters, which we show how to obtain or estimate from the literature. Through numerical simulations, we investigate the impacts of environmental heterogeneity, the periodicity of genetically modified male releases, and released genetically modified males quantity on the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti. The main results point to that the successful application of this vector control technique relies on releasing more than a critical amount of modified males with a frequency exceeding a specific critical value.

Aedes aegypti in the Mediterranean container ports at the time of climate change: A time bomb on the mosquito vector map of Europe

In the past, Aedes aegypti was present in Southern Europe. Although the mosquito was eradicated from the Mediterranean region, its regional ecotype survived the second half of the 20th century in the eastern Black Sea area. The aim of the study was to model the changes in the altering climatic suitability, ontogenetic development time and the survival rate of Aedes aegypti from first-stage larvae to adulthood in Southern Europe. The modelled present climatic suitability patterns of the mosquito show that large areas of the lower altitude Mediterranean regions, including the coastal areas of the Balkan Peninsula, South France, and large regions of the Apennines and the Iberian Peninsulas could be suitable for Ae. aegypti. The future (2041-2060 and 2061-2080) projections predict the potential northward shift of the northern occurrence of the species in the circum-Mediterranean and Black Sea areas. Both, the potential development time, and survival rate of Ae. aegypti in the late 19th and the early 20th century could be like in the present times along the Mediterranean coast. The current climatic conditions cannot explain the absence of the mosquito in wide areas of the Mediterranean and sub-Mediterranean ecoregions. The future models predict the notable increase in the development time and survival rate of the mosquito in the southern and central regions of Europe. In general, the container ports of the Alboran, Balearic, and Aegean seas seem to be the most suitable sites for the re-colonization of the mosquito, and such northern parts of the Mediterranean Sea like the Gulf of Lion, the Ligurian, and Adriatic Seas are in less extent.

Towards a Semi-Automatic Early Warning System for Vector-Borne Diseases

The emergence and spread of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) is a function of biotic, abiotic and socio-economic drivers of disease while their economic and societal burden depends upon a number of time-varying factors. This work is concerned with the development of an early warning system that can act as a predictive tool for public health preparedness and response. We employ a host-vector model that combines entomological (mosquito data), social (immigration rate, demographic data), environmental (temperature) and geographical data (risk areas). The output consists of appropriate maps depicting suitable risk measures such as the basic reproduction number, R₀, and the probability of getting infected by the disease. These tools consist of the backbone of a semi-automatic early warning system tool which can potentially aid the monitoring and control of VBDs in different settings. In addition, it can be used for optimizing the cost-effectiveness of distinct control measures and the integration of open geospatial and climatological data. The R code used to generate the risk indicators and the corresponding spatial maps along with the data is made available.

Modeling and simulation of the spatial population dynamics of the Aedes aegypti mosquito with an insecticide application

Background

The Aedes aegypti mosquito is the primary vector for several diseases. Its control requires a better understanding of the mosquitoes’ live cycle, including the spatial dynamics. Several models address this issue. However, they rely on many hard to measure parameters. This work presents a model describing the spatial population dynamics of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes using partial differential equations (PDEs) relying on a few parameters.

Methods

We show how to estimate model parameter values from the experimental data found in the literature using concepts from dynamical systems, genetic algorithm optimization and partial differential equations. We show that our model reproduces some analytical formulas relating the carrying capacity coefficient to experimentally measurable quantities as the maximum number of mobile female mosquitoes, the maximum number of eggs, or the maximum number of larvae. As an application of the presented methodology, we replicate one field experiment numerically and investigate the effect of different frequencies in the insecticide application in the urban environment.

Results

The numerical results suggest that the insecticide application has a limited impact on the mosquitoes population and that the optimal application frequency is close to one week.

Conclusions

Models based on partial differential equations provide an efficient tool for simulating mosquitoes’ spatial population dynamics. The reduced model can reproduce such dynamics on a sufficiently large scale.

Managing disease outbreaks: The importance of vector mobility and spatially heterogeneous control

Management strategies for control of vector-borne diseases, for example Zika or dengue, include using larvicide and/or adulticide, either through large-scale application by truck or plane or through door-to-door efforts that require obtaining permission to access private property and spray yards. The efficacy of the latter strategy is highly dependent on the compliance of local residents. Here we develop a model for vector-borne disease transmission between mosquitoes and humans in a neighborhood setting, considering a network of houses connected via nearest-neighbor mosquito movement. We incorporate large-scale application of adulticide via aerial spraying through a uniform increase in vector death rates in all sites, and door-to-door application of larval source reduction and adulticide through a decrease in vector emergence rates and an increase in vector death rates in compliant sites only, where control efficacies are directly connected to real-world experimentally measurable control parameters, application frequencies, and control costs. To develop mechanistic insight into the influence of vector motion and compliance clustering on disease controllability, we determine the basic reproduction number R0 for the system, provide analytic results for the extreme cases of no mosquito movement, infinite hopping rates, and utilize degenerate perturbation theory for the case of slow but non-zero hopping rates. We then determine the application frequencies required for each strategy (alone and combined) in order to reduce R0 to unity, along with the associated costs. Cost-optimal strategies are found to depend strongly on mosquito hopping rates, levels of door-to-door compliance, and spatial clustering of compliant houses, and can include aerial spray alone, door-to-door treatment alone, or a combination of both. The optimization scheme developed here provides a flexible tool for disease management planners which translates modeling results into actionable control advice adaptable to system-specific details.

Environmental Determinants of Aedes albopictus Abundance at a Northern Limit of Its Range in the United States

Aedes albopictus is a vector of arboviruses with high rates of morbidity and mortality. The northern limit of Ae. albopictus in the northeastern United States runs through New York state (NYS) and Connecticut. We present a landscape-level analysis of mosquito abundance measured by daily counts of Ae. albopictus from 338 trap sites in 12 counties during May–September 2017. During the study period, the mean number of Ae. albopictus caught per day of trapping across all sites was 3.21. We constructed four sets of negative binomial generalized linear models to evaluate how trapping methodology, land cover, as well as temperature and precipitation at multiple time intervals influenced Ae. albopictus abundance. Biogents-Sentinel (BGS) traps were 2.78 times as efficient as gravid traps and 1.49 times as efficient as CO₂-baited CDC light traps. Greater proportions of low- and medium-intensity development and low proportions of deciduous cover around the trap site were positively associated with increased abundance, as were minimum winter temperature and March precipitation. The cumulative precipitation within a 28-day time window before the date of collection had a nonlinear relationship with abundance, such that greater cumulative precipitation was associated with increased abundance until approximately 70 mm, above which there was a decrease in abundance. We concluded that populations are established in Nassau, Suffolk, and New York City counties in NYS; north of these counties, the species is undergoing population invasion and establishment. We recommend that mosquito surveillance programs monitoring the northward invasion of Ae. albopictus place BGS traps at sites chosen with respect to land cover.

Fine-scale modelling finds that breeding site fragmentation can reduce mosquito population persistence

Fine-scale geographic variation in the transmission intensity of mosquito-borne diseases is primarily caused by variation in the density of female adult mosquitoes. Therefore, an understanding of fine-scale mosquito population dynamics is critical to understanding spatial heterogeneity in disease transmission and persistence at those scales. However, mathematical models of dengue and malaria transmission, which consider the dynamics of mosquito larvae, generally do not account for the fragmented structure of larval breeding sites. Here, we develop a stochastic metapopulation model of mosquito population dynamics and explore the impact of accounting for breeding site fragmentation when modelling fine-scale mosquito population dynamics. We find that, when mosquito population densities are low, fragmentation can lead to a reduction in population size, with population persistence dependent on mosquito dispersal and features of the underlying landscape. We conclude that using non-spatial models to represent fine-scale mosquito population dynamics may substantially underestimate the stochastic volatility of those populations.

Mosquito Host-Seeking Regulation: Targets for Behavioral Control

Female Aedes aegypti mosquitoes require protein from blood to develop eggs. They have evolved a strong innate drive to find and bite humans and engorge on their blood. Decades of research have revealed that attraction to hosts is suppressed for days after blood-feeding. During this time, females coordinate complex physiological changes, allowing them to utilize blood protein to develop eggs: clearing excess fluid, digesting protein, and egg maturation. How do mechanosensation, nutrient consumption, and reproductive pathways combine to produce the full expression of host-seeking suppression? Understanding mechanisms of endogenous host-seeking suppression may allow them to be 'weaponized' against mosquitoes through exogenous activation and developed as tools for vector control. Recent work allows unprecedented genetic and pharmacological access to characterize and disrupt this behavioral cycle.