The crucial factor of hospital readmissions: a retrospective cohort study of patients evaluated in the emergency department and admitted to the department of medicine of a general hospital in Italy

Higher levels of multimorbidity are associated with increased risk of readmission for older people during post-acute transitional care

PURPOSE

Older patients are at high risk for poor outcomes after an acute hospital admission. The Transitional Aged Care Programme (TACP) was established by the Australian government to provide a short-term care service aiming to optimise functional independence following hospital discharge. We aim to investigate the association between multimorbidity and readmission amongst patients on TACP.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study of all TACP patients over 12 months. Multimorbidity was defined using the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), and prolonged TACP (pTACP) as TACP ≥ 8 weeks.

RESULTS

Amongst 227 TACP patients, the mean age was 83.3 ± 8.0 years, and 142 (62.6%) were females. The median length-of-stay on TACP was 8 weeks (IQR 5-9.67), and median CCI 7 (IQR 6-8). 21.6% were readmitted to hospital. Amongst the remainder, 26.9% remained at home independently, 49.3% remained home with supports; < 1% were transferred to a residential facility (0.9%) or died (0.9%). Hospital readmission rates increased with multimorbidity (OR 1.37 per unit increase in CCI, 95% CI 1.18-1.60, p < 0.001). On multivariable logistic regression analysis, including polypharmacy, CCI, and living alone, CCI remained independently associated with 30-day readmission (aOR 1.43, 95% CI 1.22-1.68, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

CCI is independently associated with a 30-day hospital readmission in TACP cohort. Identifying vulnerability to readmission, such as multimorbidity, may allow future exploration of targeted interventions.

The Charlson comorbidity index and short-term readmission in patients with heart failure: A retrospective cohort study

The relationship between the Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) and short-term readmission is as yet unknown. Therefore, we aimed to investigate whether the CCI was independently related to short-term readmission in patients with heart failure (HF) after adjusting for other covariates. From December 2016 to June 2019, 2008 patients who underwent HF were enrolled in the study to determine the relationship between CCI and short-term readmission. Patients with HF were divided into 2 categories based on the predefined CCI (low < 3 and high > =3). The relationships between CCI and short-term readmission were analyzed in multivariable logistic regression models and a 2-piece linear regression model. In the high CCI group, the risk of short-term readmission was higher than that in the low CCI group. A curvilinear association was found between CCI and short-term readmission, with a saturation effect predicted at 2.97. In patients with HF who had CCI scores above 2.97, the risk of short-term readmission increased significantly (OR, 2.66; 95% confidence interval, 1.566-4.537). A high CCI was associated with increased short-term readmission in patients with HF, indicating that the CCI could be useful in estimating the readmission rate and has significant predictive value for clinical outcomes in patients with HF.

[Predictors for Early Unplanned Readmissions]

Predictors for Early Unplanned Readmissions Abstract. Unplanned rehospitalizations represent a major burden for patients, their relatives and the healthcare system. Since the introduction of the SwissDRG in 2012, financial incentives for hospitals have been promoted to forestall readmissions. Not every patient is at risk for rehospitalization. Affected patients can be identified by predictors from various areas in order to implement adequate interventions and avoid readmissions. Predictors can be directly related to patients as in the case of polypharmacy, multiple comorbidities or related to gender, but also provider-related and system-related. Early follow-up visits or a pre-discharge medication review are cited as effective interventions.

Priorities in integrating primary and secondary care: a multimethod study of GPs

Purpose

Throughout the world, healthcare policy has committed to delivering integrated models of care. The interface between primary–secondary care has been identified as a particularly challenging area in this regard. To that end, this study aimed to examine the issue of integrated care from general practitioners’ (GPs) perspectives in Ireland.

Design/methodology/approach

This multimethod study involved a cross-sectional survey and semi-structured interviews with GPs in the Ireland East region. A total of 1,274 GPs were identified from publicly available data as practising in the region, of whom the study team were able to identify 430 GPs with email addresses. An email invite was sent to 430 potential participants asking them to complete a 34-item online questionnaire and, for those who were willing, an in-depth interview was conducted with a member of the study team.

Findings

In total, 116 GPs completed the survey. Most GPs felt that enhancing integration between primary and secondary care in Ireland was a priority (n = 109, 93.9%). Five themes concerning the state of integrated care and initiatives to improve matters were identified from semi-structured interviews with 12 GPs.

Originality/value

The uniqueness of this study is that it uses a multimethod approach to provide insight into current GP views on the state of integrated care in Ireland, as well as their perspectives on how to improve integration within the Irish healthcare system.

Evaluation of a patient-centered integrated care program for individuals with frequent hospital readmissions and multimorbidity

Managing patients with multimorbidity and frequent hospital readmissions is a challenge. Integrated care programs that consider their needs and allow for personalized care are necessary for their early identification and management. This work aims to describe these patients' clinical characteristics and evaluate a program designed to reducing readmissions. This prospective study analyzed all patients with ≥ 3 admissions to a medical department in the previous year who were included in the Internal Medicine Department chronic care program at the Lucus Augusti University Hospital (Lugo, Spain) between April 1, 2019 and April 30, 2021. A multidimensional assessment, personalized care plan, and proactive follow-up with a case manager nurse were provided via an advanced hospital system. Clinical and demographic variables and data on healthcare system use were analyzed at 6 and 12 months before and after inclusion. Descriptive and survival analyses were performed. One hundred sixty-one patients were included. Program participants were elderly (mean 81.4 (SD 11) years), had multimorbidity (10.2 (3) chronic diseases) and polypharmacy (10.6 (3.5) drugs), frequently used the healthcare system, and were highly complex. Most were included for heart failure. The program led to significant reductions in admissions and emergency department visits (p = .0001). A total of 44.7% patients died within 1 year. The PROFUND Index showed good predictive ability (p = .013), with high values associated with mortality (RR 1.15, p = .001). Patients with frequent hospital readmissions are highly complex and need special care. A personalized integrated care program reduced admissions and allowed for individualized decision-making.

Development and validation of an interpretable machine learning scoring tool for estimating time to emergency readmissions

BACKGROUND

Emergency readmission poses an additional burden on both patients and healthcare systems. Risk stratification is the first step of transitional care interventions targeted at reducing readmission. To accurately predict the short- and intermediate-term risks of readmission and provide information for further temporal risk stratification, we developed and validated an interpretable machine learning risk scoring system.

METHODS

In this retrospective study, all emergency admission episodes from January 1st 2009 to December 31st 2016 at a tertiary hospital in Singapore were assessed. The primary outcome was time to emergency readmission within 90 days post discharge. The Score for Emergency ReAdmission Prediction (SERAP) tool was derived via an interpretable machine learning-based system for time-to-event outcomes. SERAP is six-variable survival score, and takes the number of emergency admissions last year, age, history of malignancy, history of renal diseases, serum creatinine level, and serum albumin level during index admission into consideration.

FINDINGS

A total of 293,589 ED admission episodes were finally included in the whole cohort. Among them, 203,748 episodes were included in the training cohort, 50,937 episodes in the validation cohort, and 38,904 in the testing cohort. Readmission within 90 days was documented in 80,213 (27.3%) episodes, with a median time to emergency readmission of 22 days (Interquartile range: 8-47). For different time points, the readmission rates observed in the whole cohort were 6.7% at 7 days, 10.6% at 14 days, 13.6% at 21 days, 16.4% at 30 days, and 23.0% at 60 days. In the testing cohort, the SERAP achieved an integrated area under the curve of 0.737 (95% confidence interval: 0.730-0.743). For a specific 30-day readmission prediction, SERAP outperformed the LACE index (Length of stay, Acuity of admission, Charlson comorbidity index, and Emergency department visits in past six months) and the HOSPITAL score (Hemoglobin at discharge, discharge from an Oncology service, Sodium level at discharge, Procedure during the index admission, Index Type of admission, number of Admissions during the last 12 months, and Length of stay). Besides 30-day readmission, SERAP can predict readmission rates at any time point during the 90-day period.

INTERPRETATION

Better performance in risk prediction was achieved by the SERAP than other existing scores, and accurate information about time to emergency readmission was generated for further temporal risk stratification and clinical decision-making. In the future, external validation studies are needed to evaluate the SERAP at different settings and assess their real-world performance.

FUNDING

This study was supported by the Singapore National Medical Research Council under the PULSES Center Grant, and Duke-NUS Medical School.

Skin Ulcers are Predictors of 30-Day Hospital Readmission, But are Under-represented in the DRG Coding: A Retrospective Case-Control Study From an Italian Internal Medicine Unit

This study retrospectively analyzes all consecutive patients who underwent during a year hospital readmissions, defined as an admission to a hospital within 30 days of discharge, to an Italian Internal Medicine ward. All these data were compared with those from patients who underwent only 1 hospital admission in the same period. The aim of this study was to identify potential novel risk factors for hospital readmissions. In 2018, a total of 3012 patients were hospitalized. Among these, 14.1% (n = 426; mean age, 79.7 ± 11.9; range, 23-100) were defined as readmissions; data were compared with controls (n = 420; 13.9%; mean age, 75.9 ± 14.7; range, 22-99) who had only 1 hospitalization. Cases showed a significantly higher prevalence than controls regarding cerebrovascular disease (77.2% vs 48.1%), cognitive impairment (51.8% vs 26.9%), congestive heart failure (47.6% vs 20.2%), chronic kidney disease (31.7% vs 13.1%), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (23.0% vs 14.5%). Skin ulcers were significantly more prevalent among cases (45.1% vs 17.6%). Diagnosis-related group (DRG) analysis showed a higher proportion of "infectious disease" (24.4% vs 15.0%) among the cases than in controls. Despite skin ulcers were very frequent among cases and controls (45.1% vs 17.6%), they were codified as "skin wound" DRG only in 1.4% and 0.2%, respectively. At the DRGs analysis, sepsis (31.6% vs 19.1%), pneumonia (17.1% vs 7.6%), and kidney failure (9.6% vs 3.8%) represented the main significant cause of death in cases compared to controls. Our study confirms that readmissions to Internal Medicine departments are related to the severity of chronic diseases affecting patients. Skin ulcers are present in about half of patients who will be early readmitted within 30 days, but they are almost never reported in DRGs, so more accurate coding is needed. Key challenges for the future are sepsis prevention measures and investing resources in chronic disease assistance, including skin ulcer chronic management.

Everyday activities at home: Experiences of older repeatedly readmitted people

INTRODUCTION

Limitations in everyday activities are a risk factor for hospital readmission. Despite this, few studies have focussed on everyday activities of repeatedly readmitted older people. The experiences and specific needs of this group have been poorly described regarding their everyday activities at home. A deeper understanding may help occupational therapists and other health professions to facilitate readiness for this group at and after discharge. The aim of this study was, therefore, to describe the experiences of performing everyday activities of older people repeatedly readmitted to hospital and discharged to home.

METHODS

A qualitative interview study was used to collect data from sixteen participants (75 years and older). Data were analysed using qualitative content analysis.

RESULTS

One theme 'trying to manage an unpredictable everyday life' and two categories describe experiences of everyday activities at home. The participants expressed the importance of continuing everyday activities after discharge where support from relatives and healthcare seemed to be of importance.

CONCLUSION

It was found that performance of everyday activities and contact with family members were of importance in their everyday life. Therefore, assessments and support were of particular importance for the group of older people who do not have close social relations at home.

Investigating the geographic disparity in quality of care: the case of hospital readmission after acute myocardial infarction in Italy

Unwarranted variation in the quality of care challenges the sustainability of healthcare systems. Especially in decentralised healthcare systems, it is crucial to understand the drivers behind regional differences in hospital qualities such as unplanned readmissions. This paper examines the factors that influence the risk of unplanned hospital readmission and the geographic disparity of readmission rate in Italy. We use hospital discharge data from 2010 to 2015 for patients above 65 years old admitted with Acute Myocardial Infarction. Employing hierarchical models, we identified the patient and hospital-level determinants for unplanned readmission. In line with the literature, the risk of readmission increases with age and being male, while hospitals with higher patient volume and capacity tend to have lower unplanned readmission. In particular, we find that after patient risk-adjustments, there are differential effects of hospitalisation length-of-stay on the probability of readmission across the hospitals that are governed by different payment systems. For hospitals under a prospective payment system, the effect of length-of-stay in reducing the probability of readmission is weaker than hospitals under an ex-post global budget, but the overall readmission rates are the lowest. Moreover, there are substantial geographic variations in readmission rate across Local Health Authority and regions, and these variations of unplanned readmission are explained by differences in hospital length-of-stay and surgical procedures used. Our results demonstrate that differential hospital behaviours can be one of the potential mechanisms that drive geographic quality disparities.

Characterization of high healthcare utilizer groups using administrative data from an electronic medical record database

Background

High utilizers (HUs) are a small group of patients who impose a disproportionately high burden on the healthcare system due to their elevated resource use. Identification of persistent HUs is pertinent as interventions have not been effective due to regression to the mean in majority of patients. This study will use cost and utilization metrics to segment a hospital-based patient population into HU groups.

Methods

The index visit for each adult patient to an Academic Medical Centre in Singapore during 2006 to 2012 was identified. Cost, length of stay (LOS) and number of specialist outpatient clinic (SOC) visits within 1 year following the index visit were extracted and aggregated. Patients were HUs if they exceeded the 90th percentile of any metric, and Non-HU otherwise. Seven different HU groups and a Non-HU group were constructed. The groups were described in terms of cost and utilization patterns, socio-demographic information, multi-morbidity scores and medical history. Logistic regression compared the groups’ persistence as a HU in any group into the subsequent year, adjusting for socio-demographic information and diagnosis history.

Results

A total of 388,162 patients above the age of 21 were included in the study. Cost-LOS-SOC HUs had the highest multi-morbidity and persistence into the second year. Common conditions among Cost-LOS and Cost-LOS-SOC HUs were cardiovascular disease, acute cerebrovascular disease and pneumonia, while most LOS and LOS-SOC HUs were diagnosed with at least one mental health condition. Regression analyses revealed that HUs across all groups were more likely to persist compared to Non-HUs, with stronger relationships seen in groups with high SOC utilization. Similar trends remained after further adjustment.

Conclusion

HUs of healthcare services are a diverse group and can be further segmented into different subgroups based on cost and utilization patterns. Segmentation by these metrics revealed differences in socio-demographic characteristics, disease profile and persistence. Most HUs did not persist in their high utilization, and high SOC users should be prioritized for further longitudinal analyses. Segmentation will enable policy makers to better identify the diverse needs of patients, detect gaps in current care and focus their efforts in delivering care relevant and tailored to each segment.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12913-019-4239-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Usefulness of bounce-back admission in monitoring the quality of practice in the emergency department

Background: Recently, unscheduled readmissions after discharge from the emergency department (ED) (bounce-back admissions, BBAs) have been monitored as a hospital performance measure in countries other than Japan. It has been suggested that BBAs may be caused by errors in diagnoses or treatments.

Purpose: This retrospective cohort study aimed to evaluate BBAs and improve the quality of medical care in the ED of Showa University Hospital by analyzing the data of adult patients (≥18 years) with index visits to the ED of Showa University Hospital between June 2011 and May 2013 (n=15,069).

Patients and methods: Patients were registered and followed up for unscheduled admissions to this hospital within 7 days. In order to understand the reasons for BBAs, individual diagnoses upon BBA were compared to the corresponding diagnoses upon discharge.

Results: Among the 11,669 discharged patients, 180 patients were admitted within 3 days after discharge (3-day BBAs), and 257 were admitted within 7 days after discharge (7-day BBAs). The main diagnoses upon admission (BBA) were pneumonia or exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) or asthma (n=40, 16%), cholecystitis or cholangitis (n=21, 8.2%), and urinary tract infection (n=16, 6.2%). Among the 7-day BBA cases, 117 patients had similar and 110 patients had different diagnoses upon discharge and admission; in the remaining 30 cases, the results could not be ascertained owing to incomplete diagnostic data. In the cases of pneumonia, exacerbation of COPD or asthma, and colitis or enterocolitis, there was a significantly higher “similar” diagnoses than “different”, while the reverse was true for cases of stroke, ileus or bowel obstruction, and meningitis. These results were shared with the ED staff, and similar surveillances were periodically conducted. The frequency of admission within 7 days after discharge continuously declined from 2013 to 2016.

Conclusion: Analyzing the discharge and admission diagnoses may help ED staff to understand the reasons for common errors in order to follow the plan-do-check-act cycle of medical care in the ED.

Infections and internal medicine patients: Could a comorbidity score predict in-hospital mortality?

Infectious diseases (ID) are frequently cause of internal medicine wards (IMW) admission. We aimed to evaluate risk factors for in-hospital mortality (IHM) in IMW patients with ID, and to test the usefulness of a comorbidity score (CS).This study included ID hospital admissions between January 2013, and December 2016, recorded in the database of the local hospital. ICD-9-CM codes were selected to identify infections, development of sepsis, and to calculate a CS.We analyzed 12,173 records, (age 64.8 ± 25.1 years, females 66.2%, sepsis 9.3%). Deceased subjects (1545, 12.7%) were older, had higher percentage of sepsis, pulmonary infections, and endocarditis. Mean value of CS was also significantly higher. At multivariate analysis, the odds ratio (OR) for sepsis (OR 5.961), endocarditis (OR 4.247), pulmonary infections (OR 1.905), other sites of infection (OR 1.671), and urinary tracts infections (OR 0.548), were independently associated with IHM. The CS (OR 1.070 per unit of increasing score), was independently associated with IHM as well. The calculated weighted risk, obtained by multiplying 1.070 for the mean score value in deceased patients, was 19.367. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis showed that CS and development of sepsis were significant predictors for IHM (area under the curve, AUC: 0.724 and 0.670, respectively).Careful evaluation of comorbidity in internal medicine patients is nowadays matter of extreme importance in IMW patients hospitalized for ID, being IHM related to severity of disease, type and site of infection, and also to concomitant comorbidities. In these patients, a careful evaluation of CS should represent a fundamental step in the disease management.

90-Day Hospital Readmissions of Patients in a Geriatric Acute Care Ward in Singapore

The objective of the study is to examine the 90-day readmission rate and identify the predictors for 90-day readmissions at a geriatric ward in a tertiary hospital in Singapore. A secondary analysis of case-control data was performed. Data of patients discharged from a geriatric ward between January 2015 and January 2016 were retrieved from an existing data set. Out of 564 index admissions involving older adults, the 90-day geriatric readmission rate was 10.1%. Activities of daily living dependency (odds ratio [OR]: 0.988, 95% confidence interval [CI]: [0.978, 0.999]) and living with the spouse (OR: 2.988, 95% CI: [1.388, 6.432]) were identified as significant predictors of 90-day geriatric readmissions. The study suggests that rehabilitation to restore the geriatric patient's ability to perform daily activities and adequate caregiver training for the spouse are essential in reducing geriatric readmissions. Also, postdischarge follow-up with both the patient and caregiver can greatly reduce the risk of readmission in geriatric patients.

Managing chronic conditions care across primary care and hospital systems: lessons from an Australian Hospital Avoidance Risk Program using the Flinders Chronic Condition Management Program

Objective The study aimed to determine the impact of the Flinders Chronic Condition Management Program for chronic condition self-management care planning and how to improve its use with Bendigo Health’s Hospital Admission Risk Program (HARP). Methods A retrospective analysis of hospital admission data collected by Bendigo Health from July 2012 to September 2013 was undertaken. Length of stay during admission and total contacts post-discharge by hospital staff for 253 patients with 644 admissions were considered as outcome variables. For statistical modelling we used the generalised linear model. Results The combination of the HARP and Flinders Program was able to achieve significant reductions in hospital admissions and non-significant reduction in emergency department presentations and length of stay. The generalised linear model predicted that vulnerable patient groups such as those with heart disease (P = 0.037) and complex needs (P < 0.001) received more post-discharge contacts by HARP staff than those suffering from diabetes, renal conditions and psychosocial needs when they lived alone. Similarly, respiratory (P < 0.001), heart disease (P = 0.015) and complex needs (P = 0.050) patients had more contacts, with an increased number of episodes than those suffering from diabetes, renal conditions and psychosocial needs. Conclusion The Flinders Program appeared to have significant positive impacts on HARP patients that could be more effective if high-risk groups, such as respiratory patients with no carers and respiratory and heart disease patients aged 0–65, had received more targeted care. What is known about the topic? Chronic conditions are common causes of premature death and disability in Australia. Besides mental and physical impacts at the individual level, chronic conditions are strongly linked to high costs and health service utilisation. Hospital avoidance programs such as HARP can better manage chronic conditions through a greater focus on coordination and integration of care across primary care and hospital systems. In support of HARP, self-management interventions such as the Flinders Program aim to help individuals better manage their medical treatment and cope with the impact of the condition on their physical and mental wellbeing and thus reduce health services utilisation. What does this paper add? This paper sheds light on which patients might be more or less likely to benefit from the combination of the HARP and Flinders Program, with regard to their impact on reductions in hospital admissions, emergency department presentations and length of stay. This study also sheds light on how the Flinders Program could be better targeted towards and implemented among high-need and high-cost patients to lessen chronic disease burden on Australia’s health system. What are the implications for practitioners? Programs targeting vulnerable populations and applying evidence-based chronic condition management and self-management support achieve significant reductions in potentially avoidable hospitalisation and emergency department presentation rates, though sex, type of chronic condition and living situation appear to matter. Benefits might also accrue from the combination of contextual factors (such as the Flinders Program, supportive service management, clinical champions in the team) that work synergistically.

An acute hospital admission greatly increases one year mortality - Getting sick and ending up in hospital is bad for you: A multicentre retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

For most of the population a serious acute illness that require an emergency admission to hospital is a rare "once in a life time" event. This paper reports the one year mortality of patients admitted to hospital as acute emergencies compared to the general population.

METHOD

This is a post-hoc retrospective multicentre cohort study of acutely admitted patients from October 2008 to December 2013 aged 40 or higher. It compares the observed one-year mortality of both acute medical and surgical patients with the overall mortality in the general population at comparable age bands.

RESULTS

We included 18,375 patients and 4037 (22.0%) died within one year. For all age groups the one year mortality of those admitted to hospital for acute illness was markedly greater than for the general population. Although the odds ratio of death was highest in younger patients (e.g. odds ratio >20 for 40year olds), the absolute risk of death was greatest in the elderly (e.g. 20% mortality rate for men admitted to hospital over 65years of age, compared to 1.7% for the general population).

DISCUSSION

Admission to hospital for an acute illness is associated with a greatly increased risk of death within a year and for many elderly patients may be a seminal event.

Early rehospitalizations of frail elderly patients - the role of medications: a clinical, prospective, observational trial

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Early readmissions of frail elderly patients after an episode of hospital care are common and constitute a crucial patient safety outcome. Our purpose was to study the impact of medications on such early rehospitalizations.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This is a clinical, prospective, observational study on rehospitalizations within 30 days after an acute hospital episode for frail patients over the age of 75 years. To identify adverse drug reactions (ADRs), underuse of evidence-based treatment and avoidability of rehospitalizations, the Naranjo score, the Hallas criteria and clinical judgment were used.

RESULTS

Of 390 evaluable patients, 96 (24.6%) were rehospitalized. The most frequent symptoms and conditions were dyspnea (n = 25) and worsened general condition (n = 18). The most frequent diagnoses were heart failure (n = 17) and pneumonia/acute bronchitis (n = 13). By logistic regression analysis, independent risk predictors for rehospitalization were heart failure (odds ratio [OR] = 1.8; 95% CI = 1.1-3.1) and anemia (OR = 2.3; 95% CI = 1.3-4.0). The number of rehospitalizations due to probable ADRs was 13, of which two were assessed as avoidable. The number of rehospitalizations probably due to underuse of evidence-based drug treatment was 19, all of which were assessed as avoidable. The number of rehospitalizations not due to ADRs or underuse of evidence-based drug treatment was 64, of which none was assessed as avoidable.

CONCLUSION

One out of four frail elderly patients discharged from hospital was rehospitalized within 1 month. Although ADRs constituted an important cause of rehospitalization, underuse of evidence-based drug treatment might be an even more frequent cause. Potentially avoidable rehospitalizations were more frequently associated with underuse of evidence-based drug treatment than with ADRs. Efforts to avoid ADRs in frail elderly patients must be balanced and combined with evidence-based drug therapy, which can benefit these patients.

A modified Elixhauser score for predicting in-hospital mortality in internal medicine admissions

BACKGROUND

In-hospital mortality (IHM) is an indicator of the quality of care provided. The two most widely used scores for predicting IHM by International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes are the Elixhauser (EI) and the Charlson Comorbidity indexes. Our aim was to obtain new measures based on internal medicine ICD codes for the original EI, to detect risk for IHM.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

This single-center retrospective study included hospital admissions for any cause in the department of internal medicine between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2013, recorded in the hospital database. The EI was calculated for evaluation of comorbidity, then we added age, gender and diagnosis of ischemic heart disease. IHM was our outcome. Only predictors positively associated with IHM were taken into consideration and the Sullivan's method was applied in order to modify the parameter estimates of the regression model into an index.

RESULTS

We analyzed 75,586 admissions (53.4% females) and mean age was 72.7±16.3years. IHM was 7.9% and mean score was 12.1±7.6. The points assigned to each condition ranged from 0 to 16, and the possible range of the score varied between 0 and 89. In our population the score ranged from 0 to 54, and it was higher in the deceased group. Receiver operating characteristic curve of the new score was 0.721 (95% CI 0.714-0.727, p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In order to make prognostic assessment, the use of a score could be of help in targeting interventions in older adults, identifying subjects at high risk for IHM.

Thrombocytopenia on the first day of emergency department visit predicts higher risk of acute kidney injury among elderly patients

Background

Few studies have addressed risk factors for acute kidney injury (AKI) in geriatric patients. We investigated whether thrombocytopenia was a risk factor for AKI in geriatric patients with medical illnesses.

Methods

A prospective cohort study was conducted, by recruiting elderly (≥65 years) patients who visited the emergency department (ED) for medical illnesses during 2014. They all received hemogram for platelet count determination, and were stratified according to the presence of thrombocytopenia (platelets, <150 K/μL) during their initial ED evaluation. They were prospectively followed up during their ED stay. We analyzed the relationship between the diagnosis of thrombocytopenia and subsequent AKI after ED stay, using Cox proportional hazard modeling, with platelet count as a continuous variable or thrombocytopenia as a categorical variable.

Results

Of 136 elderly patients (mean age of 80.7 ± 8.2 years, 40% with chronic kidney disease, and 39% with diabetes) enrolled, 22.8% presented with thrombocytopenia, without differences in baseline renal function. After a mean ED stay of 4.4 ± 2.1 days, 41.9% developed AKI (52.6% Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes [KDIGO] grade 1, 24.6% grade 2, and 22.8% grade 3). Patients with higher AKI severity had stepwise lower platelet counts compared to those without AKI. The Cox proportional hazard model revealed that lower platelet count as a continuous variable (hazard ratio [HR] 0.984, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.975–0.994) and as a categorical variable (presence of thrombocytopenia) (HR 1.86, 95% CI 1.06–3.27) increased the risk of AKI. The sensitivity analyses accounting for nephrotoxic medications use, including non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, vancomycin, and contrast, yielded similar results.

Discussion

Thrombocytopenia is common among ED-visiting elderly, and the potential relationship between platelet counts and the risk of AKI suggests the utility of checking hemogram for those at-risk ofdeveloping adverse renal events.

Conclusion

Thrombocytopenia on initial presentation might indicate an increased risk of AKI among elderly patients with medical illnesses.

Using decision trees to explore the association between the length of stay and potentially avoidable readmissions: A retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

There is a growing concern that reduction in hospital length of stay (LOS) may raise the rate of hospital readmission. This study aims to identify the rate of avoidable 30-day readmission and find out the association between LOS and readmission.

METHODS

All consecutive patient admissions to the internal medicine services (n = 5,273) at King Abdullah University Hospital in Jordan between 1 December 2012 and 31 December 2013 were analyzed. To identify avoidable readmissions, a validated computerized algorithm called SQLape was used. The multinomial logistic regression was firstly employed. Then, detailed analysis was performed using the Decision Trees (DTs) model, one of the most widely used data mining algorithms in Clinical Decision Support Systems (CDSS).

RESULTS

The potentially avoidable 30-day readmission rate was 44%, and patients with longer LOS were more likely to be readmitted avoidably. However, LOS had a significant negative effect on unavoidable readmissions.

CONCLUSIONS

The avoidable readmission rate is still highly unacceptable. Because LOS potentially increases the likelihood of avoidable readmission, it is still possible to achieve a shorter LOS without increasing the readmission rate. Moreover, the way the DT model classified patient subgroups of readmissions based on patient characteristics and LOS is applicable in real clinical decisions.

Quality of Transition From Hospital to Home: The Influence of Nurse- and Patient-Reported Readiness

Identifying those at risk of poor outcomes after hospital discharge is a central focus of health care systems. Our purpose was to better understand whether and how patient- and nurse-assessed readiness for discharge (Pt- and RN-RHDS) is related to patient experiences after discharge. We conducted a prospective survey of 70 Veterans and their assigned nurses on the day of, and again with Veterans 2 weeks after, hospital discharge. The predictive model for post-discharge coping difficulty included educational level ( p = .05) and an interaction between Pt-RHDS ratings and Pt-RN RHDS discordance ( p = .01). The predictive model for patient-reported quality of hospital to home transition experience included Pt-RN RHDS discordance and an interaction between Pt-RHDS and the number of people living with the patient ( p = .05). Our findings demonstrate that agreement between Pt- and RN-RHDS may be an important measure in work aiming to improve patient outcomes post-hospitalization.

Unplanned readmissions in younger and older adult patients: the role of healthcare-related adverse events

BACKGROUND

Readmissions are a burden for patients and increase healthcare costs. In Europe, factors associated with readmissions have not yet been extensively investigated. This study aimed to discover factors associated with readmissions in both young and older adult internal medicine patients. Furthermore, we explored the role of healthcare-related adverse events (AEs) in readmissions.

METHODS

All patients admitted through the emergency department to the internal medicine department in the last 2 weeks of each month (2011) were included. Information on index admissions and readmissions, defined as an unplanned admission within 30 days after discharge, was obtained from the electronic patient record system. Demographic, clinical, and organizational factors were evaluated for their association with readmissions.

RESULTS

Of all patients (n = 940), 17.3 % were readmitted; 16.9 % of the younger (<65 years, n = 485), and 17.8 % of the older patients (≥65 years, n = 455). Dependency in activities of daily living (ADL) was the only factor associated with readmissions in both all ages (OR 2.43) and in older patients (OR 3.19), while age was associated with readmissions in younger patients (OR 1.03 per year). AEs leading to 35.4 % of all index admissions were not associated with readmissions.

CONCLUSIONS

Readmissions are common in medical patients, and, thus, remain a reason for concern in terms of patient safety and quality of care. AEs, responsible for to the index admission, were not associated with readmissions. ADL dependency was the only factor associated with readmission in patients of all ages and older patients, indicating that determining which patients are at risk for readmissions is not easy.

A novel organizational model to face the challenge of multimorbid elderly patients in an internal medicine setting: a case study from Parma Hospital, Italy

Continuous increase of elderly patients with multimorbidity and Emergency Department (ED) overcrowding are great challenges for modern medicine. Traditional hospital organizations are often too rigid to solve them without consistently rising healthcare costs. In this paper we present a new organizational model achieved at Internal Medicine and Critical Subacute Care Unit of Parma University Hospital, Italy, a 106-bed internal medicine area organized by intensity of care and specifically dedicated to such patients. The unit is partitioned into smaller wards, each with a specific intensity level of care, including a rapid-turnover ward (mean length of stay <4 days) admitting acutely ill patients from the ED, a subacute care ward for chronic critically ill subjects and a nurse-managed ward for stable patients who have socio-economic trouble preventing discharge. A very-rapid-turnover ("come'n'go") ward has also been instituted to manage sudden ED overflows. Continuity, effectiveness, safety and appropriateness of care are guaranteed by an innovative figure called "flow manager," with skilled clinical experience and managerial attitude, and by elaboration of an early personalized discharge plan anticipating every patient's needs according to lean methodology principles. In 2012-2014, this organizational model, compared with other peer units of the hospital and of other teaching hospitals of the region, showed a better performance, efficacy and effectiveness indexes calculated on Regional Hospital Discharge Records database system, allowing a capacity to face a massive (+22 %) rise in medical admissions from the ED. Further studies are needed to validate this model from a patient outcome point of view.