Are tumor size changes predictive of survival for checkpoint blockade based immunotherapy in metastatic melanoma?

Predictive markers of response to immune checkpoint inhibitor rechallenge in metastatic non-small cell lung cancer

Aim

The present study aims to evaluate the efficacy of rechallenge with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) compared to chemotherapy and the predictive role of clinical parameters in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients who were rechallenged.

Methods

The study included 113 metastatic NSCLC patients who had initially responded to ICIs and platinum-based chemotherapy, either in combination in the first line or sequentially in the first and second line, but later experienced disease progression. Of those patients, 52 later received ICI rechallenge and 61 were exposed to chemotherapy.

Results

In the rechallenge cohort, the median age was 67 years, 38 patients were men (73.1%), 26 (50.0%) had squamous cell carcinoma. Patients who underwent ICI rechallenge had longer overall survival (OS) compared to those who received chemotherapy (12.9 months vs. 9.6 months, P = 0.008). Multivariate analysis for progression-free survival (PFS) and OS revealed that poor Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status (ECOG PS; PFS: P = 0.013 and OS: P = 0.037), absence of objective response during initial ICI therapy (PFS: P = 0.014 and OS: P = 0.028), and baseline neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) ≥ 3.8 (PFS: P = 0.001 and OS: P = 0.003) were negative predictive factors of ICI rechallenge. The three parameters were included in a risk model named as the NEO score, which stratified patients who received ICI rechallenge into two predictive groups. Patients with ECOG PS 0-1, objective response during initial ICI treatment, and NLR < 3.8 (favorable group) had longer PFS (8.6 months vs. 3.0 months, P < 0.001) and OS (16.6 months vs. 5.5 months, P < 0.001) compared to those with absence of all three markers (poor group). There was no association between the NEO score and survival outcomes in patients who did not undergo rechallenge.

Conclusions

ICI rechallenge showed a survival benefit, particularly in NSCLC patients with NLR < 3.8, good ECOG PS, and objective response.

Early versus late response to PD-1-based immunotherapy in metastatic melanoma

BACKGROUND

Immune checkpoint inhibition (ICI) currently is the most effective treatment to induce durable responses in metastatic melanoma. The aims of this study are the characterization of patients with early, late and non-response to ICI and analysis of survival outcomes in a real-world patient cohort.

METHODS

Patients who received PD-1-based immunotherapy for non-resectable stage-IV melanoma in any therapy line were selected from the prospective multicenter real-world DeCOG study ADOREG-TRIM (NCT05750511). Patients showing complete (CR) or partial (PR) response already during the first 3 months of treatment (Early Responders, EarlyR) were compared to patients showing CR/PR at a later time (Late Responders, LateR), a stable disease (SD) and to patients showing progressive disease (Non-Responders, NonR).

RESULTS

Of 522 patients, 8.2 % were EarlyR (n = 43), 19.0 % were LateR (n = 99), 37.0 % had a SD (n = 193) and 35.8 % were NonR (n = 187). EarlyR, LateR and SD patients had comparable baseline characteristics. Multivariate logbinomial regression analyses adjusted for age and sex revealed positive tumor PD-L1 (RR=1.99, 95 %-CI=1.14-3.46, p = 0.015), and normal serum CRP (RR=1.59, 95 %-CI=0.93-2.70, p = 0.036) as independently associated with the achievement of an early response compared to NonR. The median progression-free and overall survival was 46.0 months (95 % CI 19.1; NR) and 47.8 months (95 %-CI 36.9; NR) for EarlyR, NR (95 %-CI NR; NR) for LateR, 8.1 months (7.0; 10.4) and 35.4 months (29.2; NR) for SD, and 2.0 months (95 %-CI 1.9; 2.1) and 6.1 months (95 %-CI 4.6; 8.8) for NonR patients.

CONCLUSION

Less than 10 % of metastatic melanoma patients achieved an early response during the first 3 months of PD-1-based immunotherapy. Early responders were not superior to late responders in terms of response durability and survival.

How Does Target Lesion Selection Affect RECIST? A Computer Simulation Study

OBJECTIVES

Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST) is grounded on the assumption that target lesion selection is objective and representative of the change in total tumor burden (TTB) during therapy. A computer simulation model was designed to challenge this assumption, focusing on a particular aspect of subjectivity: target lesion selection.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Disagreement among readers and the disagreement between individual reader measurements and TTB were analyzed as a function of the total number of lesions, affected organs, and lesion growth.

RESULTS

Disagreement rises when the number of lesions increases, when lesions are concentrated on a few organs, and when lesion growth borders the thresholds of progressive disease and partial response. There is an intrinsic methodological error in the estimation of TTB via RECIST 1.1, which depends on the number of lesions and their distributions. For example, for a fixed number of lesions at 5 and 15, distributed over a maximum of 4 organs, the error rates are observed to be 7.8% and 17.3%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results demonstrate that RECIST can deliver an accurate estimate of TTB in localized disease, but fails in cases of distal metastases and multiple organ involvement. This is worsened by the "selection of the largest lesions," which introduces a bias that makes it hardly possible to perform an accurate estimate of the TTB. Including more (if not all) lesions in the quantitative analysis of tumor burden is desirable.

Hierarchical cluster analysis and nonlinear mixed-effects modelling for candidate biomarker detection in preclinical models of cancer

BACKGROUND

Preclinical models of cancer can be of translational benefit when assessing how different biomarkers are regulated in response to particular treatments. Detection of molecular biomarkers in preclinical models of cancer is difficult due inter-animal variability in responses, combined with limited accessibility of longitudinal data.

METHODS

Nonlinear mixed-effects modelling (NLME) was used to analyse tumour growth data based on expected tumour growth rates observed 7 days after initial doses (DD7) of Radiotherapy (RT) and Combination of RT with DNA Damage Response Inhibitors (DDRi). Cox regression was performed to confirm an association between DD7 and survival. Hierarchical Cluster Analysis (HCA) was then used to identify candidate biomarkers impacting responses to RT and RT/DDRi and these were validated using NLME.

RESULTS

Cox regression confirmed significant associations between DD7 and survival. HCA of RT treated samples, combined with NLME confirmed significant associations between DD7 and Cluster specific CD8+ Ki67 MFI, as well as DD7 and cluster specific Natural Killer cell density in RT treated mice.

CONCLUSION

Application of NLME, as well as HCA of candidate biomarkers may provide additional avenues to assess the effect of RT in MC38 syngeneic tumour models. Additional studies would need to be conducted to confirm association between DD7 and biomarkers in RT/DDRi treated mice.

Pre-treatment 18F-FDG-PET/CT parameters as biomarkers for progression free survival, best overall response and overall survival in metastatic melanoma patients undergoing first-line immunotherapy

BACKGROUND

Checkpoint inhibitors have drastically improved the therapy of patients with advanced melanoma. 18F-FDG-PET/CT parameters might act as biomarkers for response and survival and thus can identify patients that do not benefit from immunotherapy. However, little literature exists on the association of baseline 18F-FDG-PET/CT parameters with progression free survival (PFS), best overall response (BOR), and overall survival (OS).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Using a whole tumor volume segmentation approach, we investigated in a retrospective registry study (n = 50) whether pre-treatment 18F-FDG-PET/CT parameters of three subgroups (tumor burden, tumor glucose uptake and non-tumoral hematopoietic tissue metabolism), can act as biomarkers for the primary endpoints PFS and BOR as well as for the secondary endpoint OS.

RESULTS

Compared to the sole use of clinical parameters, baseline 18F-FDG-PET/CT parameters did not significantly improve a Cox proportional-hazard model for PFS (C-index/AIC: 0.70/225.17 and 0.68/223.54, respectively; p = 0.14). A binomial logistic regression analysis for BOR was not statistically significant (χ2(15) = 16.44, p = 0.35), with a low amount of explained variance (Nagelkerke's R2 = 0.38). Mean FDG uptake of the spleen contributed significantly to a Cox proportional-hazard model for OS (HR 3.55, p = 0.04).

CONCLUSIONS

The present study could not confirm the capability of the pre-treatment 18F-FDG-PET/CT parameters tumor burden, tumor glucose uptake and non-tumoral hematopoietic tissue metabolism to act as biomarkers for PFS and BOR in metastatic melanoma patients receiving first-line immunotherapy. The documented potential of 18F-FDG uptake by immune-mediating tissues such as the spleen to act as a biomarker for OS has been reproduced.

Clinical Impact of Early Tumour Shrinkage in Metastatic or Unresectable Oesophageal Cancer Treated with Pembrolizumab plus Chemotherapy

INTRODUCTION

Metastatic or unresectable locally advanced oesophageal cancer remains a disease with high mortality. More recently, pembrolizumab plus chemotherapy has been indicated as the first-line treatment for those patients, but the predictive factors for treatment efficacy remain controversial. This study investigated the clinical utility of early tumour shrinkage (ETS) and depth of response (DpR) in metastatic or unresectable oesophageal cancer treated with pembrolizumab plus CF therapy.

METHODS

ETS and DpR, defined as the percent decreases at the second evaluation and the percentage of the maximal tumour shrinkage during treatment, were measured in 53 eligible patients. The ETS and DpR cut-off values were 20% and 30%, respectively, based on survival outcomes.

RESULTS

Twenty-seven patients (51%) were treatment naïve, while 26 (49%) had received any treatment before initiating pembrolizumab plus CF therapy. The median progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival for ETS ≥20% and <20% were 12.7 and 5.5 months and 14.4 and 8.2 months and 12.7 and 4.9 months and 14.4 and 8.0 months for DpR ≥30% and <30%, respectively. ETS <20% showed early tumour growth, whereas ETS ≥20% had a good response rate with sufficient longer response duration. In addition, an ETS cut-off of 20% predicted the best overall response and was not associated with prior treatment. In multivariable analysis, ETS ≥20% and DpR ≥30% were independent factors of longer PFS.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that an ETS is a promising on-treatment marker for early prediction of further sensitivity to pembrolizumab plus CF therapy.

Results from an IFCC Global Survey on Laboratory Practices for the Analysis of Circulating Tumor DNA

BACKGROUND

The clinical validity of ctDNA analysis as a diagnostic, prognostic and predictive biomarker has been demonstrated in many studies. The rapid spread of tests for the analysis of ctDNA raises questions regarding their standardization and quality assurance. The aim of this study was to provide a global overview of the test methods, laboratory procedures and quality assessment practices using ctDNA diagnostics.

METHODS

The Molecular Diagnostics Committee of the International Federation of Clinical Chemistry and Laboratory Medicine (IFCC C-MD) conducted a survey among international laboratories performing ctDNA analysis. Questions on analytical techniques, test parameters, quality assurance and the reporting of findings were included.

RESULTS

A total of 58 laboratories participated in the survey. The majority of the participating laboratories (87.7%) performed testing for patient care. Most laboratories conducted their assays for lung cancer (71.9%), followed by colorectal (52.6%) and breast (40.4%) cancer, and 55.4% of the labs used ctDNA analysis for follow-up/monitoring of treatment-resistant alterations. The most frequent gene analysed was EGFR (75.8%), followed by KRAS (65.5%) and BRAF (56.9%). Participation in external quality assessment programs was reported by only 45.6% of laboratories.

CONCLUSIONS

The survey indicates that molecular diagnostic methods for the analysis of ctDNA are not standardized across countries and laboratories. Furthermore, it reveals a number of differences regarding sample preparation, processing and reporting test results. Our findings indicate that ctDNA testing is being conducted without sufficient attention to analytical performance between laboratories and highlights the need for standarisation of ctDNA analysis and reporting in patient care.

Comparison of sequential and joint nonlinear mixed effects modeling of tumor kinetics and survival following Durvalumab treatment in patients with metastatic urothelial carcinoma

Standard endpoints such as objective response rate are usually poorly correlated with overall survival (OS) for treatment with immune checkpoint inhibitors. Longitudinal tumor size may serve as a more useful predictor of OS, and establishing a quantitative relationship between tumor kinetics (TK) and OS is a crucial step for successfully predicting OS based on limited tumor size measurements. This study aims to develop a population TK model in combination with a parametric survival model by sequential and joint modeling approaches to characterize durvalumab phase I/II data from patients with metastatic urothelial cancer, and to evaluate and compare the performance of the two modeling approaches in terms of parameter estimates, TK and survival predictions, and covariate identification. The tumor growth rate constant was estimated to be greater for patients with OS ≤ 16 weeks as compared to that for patients with OS > 16 weeks with the joint modeling approach (k_g= 0.130 vs. 0.0551 week^-1, p-value < 0.0001), but similar for both groups (k_g = 0.0624 vs.0.0563 week^-1, p-value = 0.37) with the sequential modeling approach. The predicted TK profiles by joint modeling appeared better aligned with clinical observations. Joint modeling also predicted OS more accurately than the sequential approach according to concordance index and Brier score. The sequential and joint modeling approaches were also compared using additional simulated datasets, and survival was predicted better by joint modeling in the case of a strong association between TK and OS. In conclusion, joint modeling enabled the establishment of a robust association between TK and OS and may represent a better choice for parametric survival analyses over the sequential approach.

Deciphering radiological stable disease to immune checkpoint inhibitors

BACKGROUND

'Stable disease (SD)' as per RECIST is a common but ambiguous outcome in patients receiving immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs). This study aimed to characterize SD and identify the subset of patients with SD who are benefiting from treatment. Understanding SD would facilitate drug development and improve precision in correlative research.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A systematic review was carried out to characterize SD in ICI trials. SD and objective response were compared to proliferation index using The Cancer Genome Atlas gene expression data. To identify a subgroup of SD with outcomes mirroring responders, we examined a discovery cohort of non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Serial cutpoints of two variables, % best overall response and progression-free survival (PFS), were tested to define a subgroup of patients with SD with similar survival as responders. Results were then tested in external validation cohorts.

RESULTS

Among trials of ICIs (59 studies, 14 280 patients), SD ranged from 16% to 42% in different tumor types and was associated with disease-specific proliferation index (ρ = -0.75, P = 0.03), a proxy of tumor kinetics, rather than relative response to ICIs. In a discovery cohort of NSCLC [1220 patients, 313 (26%) with SD to ICIs], PFS ranged widely in SD (0.2-49 months, median 4.9 months). The subset with PFS >6 months and no tumor growth mirrored partial response (PR) minor (overall survival hazard ratio 1.0) and was proposed as the definition of SD responder. This definition was confirmed in two validation cohorts from trials of NSCLC treated with durvalumab and found to apply in tumor types treated with immunotherapy in which depth and duration of benefit were correlated.

CONCLUSIONS

RECIST-defined SD to immunotherapy is common, heterogeneous, and may largely reflect tumor growth rate rather than ICI response. In patients with NSCLC and SD to ICIs, PFS >6 months and no tumor growth may be considered 'SD responders'. This definition may improve the efficiency of and insight derivable from clinical and translational research.

Early Tumor Size Reduction of at least 10% at the First Follow-Up Computed Tomography Can Predict Survival in the Setting of Advanced Melanoma and Immunotherapy

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES

Early tumor size reduction (TSR) has been explored as a prognostic factor for survival in patients with advanced melanoma in clinical trials. The purpose of this analysis is to validate, in a routine clinical milieu, the predictive capacity of TSR by 10% for overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) and to compare its predictive performance with the RECIST 1.1 criteria.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This retrospective study was approved by the local ethics committee. A total of 152 patients with both CT before immunotherapy initiation and at first response evaluation after immunotherapy initiation were included. Prior to statistical analysis, treatment response was trichotomized as follows: Complete response and/or partial response, stable disease and progressive disease. Furthermore, response was dichotomized regarding TSR (TSR ≥ 10% and TSR < 10%). Kaplan-Meier survival estimates, Cox regression and Harrel's concordance index (C-index) were computed for prediction of overall survival and progression-free survival.

RESULTS

Tumor size reduction by at least 10% significantly differentiated between patients with increased survival from the ones with decreased survival (median OS: TSR ≥ 10%: 2137 days vs. TSR < 10%: 263 days) (p < 0.001) (median PFS: TSR ≥ 10%: 590 days vs.  TSR < 10%: 11 days) (p < 0.001). RECIST 1.1. criteria had a slightly higher C-index for overall survival reflecting a slight superior predictive capacity (RECIST: 0.69 vs TSR: 0.64) but a similar predictive capacity regarding progression-free survival (both: 0. 63).

CONCLUSION

Early tumor size reduction serves as a simple-to-use metric which can be implemented on the first follow-up CT. Tumor size reduction by at least 10% can be considered an additional biomarker predictive of overall survival and progression-free survival in routine clinical care and not only in the context of clinical trials in patients with advanced melanoma undergoing immunotherapy. Nevertheless, RECIST-based criteria should remain the main tool of treatment response assessment until results of prospective studies validating the TSR method are available.

Early tumor shrinkage identifies long-term disease control and survival in patients with lung cancer treated with atezolizumab

Background

Preliminary evidence indicates that early tumor shrinkage (ETS) following immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) initiation may be associated with survival outcomes in patients with advanced melanoma. ETS has not been explored as a biomarker of survival outcomes or patient-reported outcomes in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with ICIs.

Methods

The study pooled data from patients with NSCLC in the randomized trials OAK and POPLAR (atezolizumab vs docetaxel; n=1464), and single-arm atezolizumab trials BIRCH and FIR (n=797). The association between ETS (≥10% decrease in pretreatment sum-of-longest diameters of target-lesions at 6 weeks) and overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), time to deterioration (TDD) in health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL) and physical function (PF) was assessed using Cox proportional hazard analysis.

Results

ETS occurred in 20% of atezolizumab-treated patients with NSCLC within OAK and POPLAR and was associated with highly favorable OS (HR 0.33, p<0.001), PFS (HR 0.31, p<0.001), TDD in HRQoL (HR 0.73, p=0.01) and PF (HR 0.52, p<0.001). The results were replicated in the BIRCH and FIR data. Atezolizumab-treated patients achieving ETS had markedly improved OS compared with docetaxel-treated patients achieving ETS (24-month OS 55% vs 32%); PFS was also markedly improved (24-month PFS 31% vs 4%). In contrast, for patients not achieving ETS, atezolizumab-treatment was associated with more modest OS (24-month OS 23% vs 20%) and PFS (24-month PFS 3% vs 1%) improvement compared with docetaxel. Overall, the effect size for ETS within the atezolizumab-treated patients was significantly greater than that in the docetaxel-treated patients (P(interaction)=0.002 for OS and P(interaction)<0.001 for PFS).

Conclusions

ETS is an easily measurable biomarker, predictive of highly favorable survival and patient-reported outcomes with atezolizumab treatment for advanced NSCLC. Further, ETS identifies patients with significantly greater treatment benefit for ICI therapy.

Prediction of overall survival in patients across solid tumors following atezolizumab treatments: A tumor growth inhibition-overall survival modeling framework

The objectives of the study were to use tumor size data from 10 phase II/III atezolizumab studies across five solid tumor types to estimate tumor growth inhibition (TGI) metrics and assess the impact of TGI metrics and baseline prognostic factors on overall survival (OS) for each tumor type. TGI metrics were estimated from biexponential models and posttreatment longitudinal data of 6699 patients. TGI‐OS full models were built using parametric survival regression by including all significant baseline covariates from the Cox univariate analysis followed by a backward elimination step. The model performance was evaluated for each trial by 1000 simulations of the OS distributions and hazard ratios (HR) of the atezolizumab‐containing arms versus the respective controls. The tumor growth rate estimate was the most significant predictor of OS across all tumor types. Several baseline prognostic factors, such as inflammatory status (C‐reactive protein, albumin, and/or neutrophil‐to‐lymphocyte ratio), tumor burden (sum of longest diameters, number of metastatic sites, and/or presence of liver metastases), Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, and lactate dehydrogenase were also highly significant across multiple studies in the final multivariate models. TGI‐OS models adequately described the OS distribution. The model‐predicted HRs indicated good model performance across the 10 studies, with observed HRs within the 95% prediction intervals for all study arms versus controls. Multivariate TGI‐OS models developed for different solid tumor types were able to predict treatment effect with various atezolizumab monotherapy or combination regimens and could be used to support design and analysis of future studies.

Prognostic impact of early tumor shrinkage and depth of response in patients with microsatellite instability-high metastatic colorectal cancer receiving immune checkpoint inhibitors

BACKGROUND

Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) are the new standard of care in microsatellite instability-high (MSI-H)/deficient mismatch repair (dMMR) metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). Since tumor response dynamic parameters already shown a strong association with survival outcomes in patients with mCRC treated with first-line therapy, we investigated the association of early tumor shrinkage (ETS) and depth of response (DoR) in patients with MSI-H/dMMR mCRC treated with ICIs.

METHODS

This is a retrospective, multicenter, cohort study in patients with dMMR and/or MSI-high mCRC treated with ICIs (anti-PD-1/PD-L1 with or without anti-CTLA-4 agents) with measurable disease and at least one post-baseline radiological disease reassessment. The Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional-hazards regression models were used for survival analyses. A maximally selected statistics method in a Cox regression model for progression-free survival (PFS) was used to determine the optimal cut-offs for ETS and DoR.

RESULTS

We included a total of 169 patients: 116 (68.6%) were treated with anti-PD-1 monotherapy, whereas 53 (31.4%) with anti-PD-1 plus anti-CTLA-4 agents. Patients with primary progressive disease (N=37, 21.9%), experienced an extremely poor overall survival (OS) and were evaluated separately. In patients with clinical benefit, we observed a significant association between ETS and DoR with both OS and PFS, and we identified a relative reduction of at least 1% as the optimal cut-off for ETS and a relative reduction of at least 50% as the optimal cut-off for DoR.

CONCLUSIONS

ETS and DoR are important prognostic factors in patients with MSI-high mCRC treated with ICIs that might be useful to design treatment intensification/deintensification strategies. A prospective validation of both is warranted.

Downregulation of Stemness Genes and Induction of Necrosis in Rat LA7 Cancer Stem Cells Induced Tumors Treated with Starved Fibroblasts Culture Supernatant

BACKGROUND

Stem cell differentiation therapy is a promising strategy in cancer treatment. we show that protein cocktail prepared from serum starved fibroblasts has therapeutic potential based on this strategy.

METHODS

The condition medium was prepared from foreskin isolated fibroblasts and analyzed by Liquid chromatography electrospray ionization mass spectrometry-mass spectrometry (LC-ESI-MS/MS). LA7 mammary gland cancer stem cells originated tumors were induced in Sprague Dawley rats. The rats treated subcutaneously with DMEM (group A), condition medium (group B), or normal saline (group C) once daily for 7 days. Then the tumors were removed and divided into the two parts, one part was used to quantify gene expression by stem-loop RT-qPCR assay and the other part was used for Hematoxylin & Eosin (H & E), Giemsa, and immunohistochemistry (IHC) staining.

RESULTS

All induced tumors appeared as sarcomatoid carcinoma (SC). Immunohistochemistry staining confirmed this conclusion by recognizing the tumor as Ki67+, cytokeratin+, vimentine+, and estrogen receptor negative SC. RT-qPCR analysis revealed that Oct4-, Sox-2, Nanog- gene expression was much reduced in the condition medium treated tumors versus proper controls (p< 0.05). Tissue necrosis was more prevalent in this group while tumors volume was diminished almost by 40%. The LC-ESI-MS/MS analysis unrevealed the stemness reducing and the cell death inducing proteins such as, pigment epithelium-derived factor (PEDF), insulin like growth factor binding protein-5 (IGFBP-5) and -7 (IGFBP-7) in the condition medium.

CONCLUSION

This study showed that the substances released from starved human fibroblasts were able to down-regulate the stemness-related genes and induce necrosis in LA7 derived tumors.

Radiological dynamics and SITC-defined resistance types of advanced melanoma during anti-PD-1 monotherapy: an independent single-blind observational study on an international cohort

BACKGROUND

Although the Society for Immunotherapy of Cancer (SITC) Immunotherapy Resistance Taskforce recently defined primary and secondary resistance to anti-programmed cell death protein 1 (anti-PD-1) therapy, there is lack of real-world data regarding differences in these resistance subtypes with respect to radiological dynamics and clinical manifestations.

METHODS

We performed single-blind re-evaluations of radiological images by independent radiologists on a retrospectively assembled cohort of patients with advanced melanoma (n=254, median follow-up 31 months) receiving anti-PD-1 monotherapy at Massachusetts General Hospital and Peking University Cancer Hospital. Radiological characteristics and timing at multiple crucial time points were analyzed and correlated with each other and with survival. Primary and secondary resistance was defined as per the SITC Immunotherapy Resistance Taskforce definitions.

RESULTS

The most significant target lesion measurement change took place within the first 3 months after anti-PD-1 initiation. Patients with stable disease with versus without tumor shrinkage at the initial evaluation exhibited distinct disease trajectory, as the rate of further upgrade to a partial or complete remission (CR/PR) was 44% and 0%, respectively. Eleven per cent of PR patients ultimately achieved a CR. In multivariate analyses, deeper response depth was independently associated with a more limited progression pattern, fewer involved organs, lower tumor burden, slower growth rate at disease progression (PD) (all p≤0.001), and longer post-progression survival (PPS) (bivariate analysis, p=0.005). Compared with primary resistance, secondary resistance was associated with less widespread PD pattern, lower tumor burden and slower tumor growth (all p≤0.001). Patients with secondary resistance were less likely to receive further systemic therapy (28% vs 57%, p<0.001) yet had significantly better PPS (HR 0.503, 95% CI 0.288 to 0.879, p=0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

Radiological dynamics were variable, yet significantly correlated with survival outcomes. SITC-defined primary and secondary resistance are distinct clinical manifestations in patients with melanoma, suggesting the possibility of resistance-type-based therapeutic decision-making and clinical trial design, once further validated by future prospective studies.

Early predictions of response and survival from a tumor dynamics model in patients with recurrent, metastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma treated with immunotherapy

We developed and evaluated a method for making early predictions of best overall response (BOR) and overall survival at 6 months (OS6) in patients with cancer treated with immunotherapy. This method combines machine learning with modeling of longitudinal tumor size data. We applied our method to data from durvalumab‐exposed patients with recurrent/metastatic head and neck cancer. A fivefold cross‐validation was used for model selection. Independent trial data, with various degrees of data truncation, were used for model validation. Mean classification error rates (90% confidence intervals [CIs]) from cross‐validation were 5.99% (90% CI 2.98%–7.50%) for BOR and 19.8% (90% CI 15.8%–39.3%) for OS6. During model validation, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves was preserved for BOR (0.97, 0.97, and 0.94) and OS6 (0.85, 0.84, and 0.82) at 24, 18, and 12 weeks, respectively. These results suggest our method predicts trial outcomes accurately from early data and could be used to aid drug development.

Mechanistic classification of immune checkpoint inhibitor toxicity as a pointer to minimal treatment strategies to further improve survival

Improved anti-tumour responses under immune checkpoint inhibition (ICI) are associated with concomitant autoimmune disease development termed immune related adverse events (irAEs), of which approximately 5% are rheumatic in nature. Generally, oncologists and other specialists vigorously treat irAEs in spite of the generally accepted beneficial effect of irAEs on tumour survival. Herein, we highlight mechanistic insights on how tumour responses and certain types of autoimmunity appear to be inextricably linked around CD8+ T-cell mediated responses and that strategies that interfere with such shared immunopathgenesis could impact of survival. We discuss the possible circumstances in which intensive immunosuppressive therapy for irAEs that occur with ICIs might blunt anti-tumour immunity. We also discuss potential therapeutic strategies for emergent ICI related autoimmunity and propose some treatment considerations and research questions to minimize the impact of overzealous immunosuppression strategies on tumour responses. Thus, refraining from using powerful therapeutic armamentarium to treat irAEs, especially when these are not considered as life-threating might improve the prognosis of ICI therapy.