Machine learning approach for predicting production delays: a quarry company case study

An assessment of ensemble learning approaches and single-based machine learning algorithms for the characterization of undersaturated oil viscosity

Background

Prediction of accurate crude oil viscosity when pressure volume temperature (PVT) experimental results are not readily available has been a major challenge to the petroleum industry. This is due to the substantial impact an inaccurate prediction will have on production planning, reservoir management, enhanced oil recovery processes and choice of design facilities such as tubing, pipeline and pump sizes. In a bid to attain improved accuracy in predictions, recent research has focused on applying various machine learning algorithms and intelligent mechanisms. In this work, an extensive comparative analysis between single-based machine learning techniques such as artificial neural network, support vector machine, decision tree and linear regression, and ensemble learning techniques such as bagging, boosting and voting was performed. The prediction performance of the models was assessed by using five evaluation measures, namely mean absolute error, relative squared error, mean squared error, root mean squared error and root mean squared log error.

Results

The ensemble methods offered generally higher prediction accuracies than single-based machine learning techniques. In addition, weak single-based learners of the dataset used in this study (for example, SVM) were transformed into strong ensemble learners with better prediction performance when used as based learners in the ensemble method, while other strong single-based learners were discovered to have had significantly improved prediction performance.

Conclusion

The ensemble methods have great prospects of enhancing the overall predictive accuracy of single-based learners in the domain of reservoir fluid PVT properties (such as undersaturated oil viscosity) prediction.