Defensive gun use: What can we learn from news reports?

Deer Hunting Season and Firearm Violence in US Rural Counties

Importance

Firearm violence is a major public health problem in the US. However, relatively little research has focused particular attention on firearm violence in rural areas, and few studies have used research designs that draw on exogenous variation in the prevalence of firearms to estimate the association between firearm presence and shootings.

Objective

To investigate the association between the start of deer hunting season and shootings in rural counties in the US.

Design, Setting, and Participants

In this cohort study, data from all rural US counties in states with available data on the timing of deer hunting season were matched with data on shootings from the Gun Violence Archive from January 1, 2014, to December 31, 2021.

Exposure

Shootings in the first 3 weeks of deer hunting season were compared with the week prior to the start of deer hunting season.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The main outcome was daily total shootings. The association between the start of deer hunting season and shootings was estimated using Poisson regression models to analyze change within counties while controlling for relevant calendar year, month of year, and seasonal effects.

Results

The sample included 854 rural counties with a mean (SD) population of 16 416 (18 329) per county and 5.4 (13.3) annual shootings per 100 000 people. The county fixed-effects specification analyzing the association between deer hunting season and shootings showed that relative to the week prior to deer hunting season, the incidence rate ratio for total shootings was 1.49 (95% CI, 1.13-1.95) for the first week of deer hunting season and 1.41 (95% CI, 1.02-1.94) for the second week of deer hunting season. Estimates remained consistent when excluding hunting accidents and were most pronounced in states with more hunting licenses per capita.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study of the association between the start of deer hunting season and firearm violence, results showed that the start of deer hunting season was associated with a substantial increase in shootings. The findings highlight the role of firearm prevalence in gun violence and suggest the need for focused policies designed to reduce firearm violence in areas with substantial hunting activity during the first weeks of deer hunting season.

Identifying overlaps and disconnects between media reports and official records of nonfatal firearm injuries in Indianapolis, Indiana, 2021-2022

OBJECTIVE

Open-source data systems, largely drawn from media sources, are commonly used by scholars due to the lack of a comprehensive national data system. It is unclear if these data provide an accurate and complete representation of firearm injuries and their context. The study objectives were to compare firearm injuries in official police records with media reports to better identify the characteristics associated with media reporting.

METHODS

Firearm injuries were identified in open-source media reports and compared to nonfatal firearm injury (n = 1642) data from official police records between January 1, 2021 to December 31, 2022 in Indianapolis, Indiana. Events were matched on date, location, and event circumstances. Four multivariate, multi-level mixed effects logistic regression models were conducted to assess which survivor, event, and community characteristics were associated with media reporting. Data were analyzed 2023 - January 2024.

RESULTS

Media reported 41% of nonfatal shootings in 2021 and 45% in 2022(p < 0.05), which is approximately two out of every five shootings. Shootings involving multiple survivors, children, and self-defense were more likely to be reported, whereas unintentional shootings and shootings that occurred in structurally disadvantaged communities were less likely to be reported.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings suggest that relying on media reports of firearm injuries alone may misrepresent the numbers and contexts of shootings. Public health interventions that educate journalists about these important issues may be an impactful firearm violence prevention strategy. Also, it is critical to link data systems at the local level to ensure interventions are designed and evaluated using accurate data.

Examining media reports of pediatric unintentional firearm injury deaths for prevention messaging concerning secured storage of firearms: U.S., 2021-2022

BACKGROUND

Media outlets that report on firearm injuries and deaths may provide an important role in emphasizing safe storage practices, particularly when unintentional firearm injuries and deaths occur among young children. There has been a scarcity of research on aspects of media reports on injuries, particularly concerning prevention messaging. The objective of the present study was to examine prevention messaging on the safe storage of firearms among media outlets when reporting on unintentional firearm injury deaths among children aged 0-11.

METHODS

The Gun Violence Archive collects information from media sources regarding firearm injuries and deaths. We analyzed data from 2021 to 2022 to analyze prevention messaging incorporated into the media reports. We then examined if media reporting of events that occurred in States with child access prevention (CAP) laws had a higher likelihood of including prevention messaging compared to those events occurring in States without CAP laws.

RESULTS

There were 223 deaths reported that were attributed to unintentional firearm discharge among children aged 0-11. Prevention messages were delivered in 61 of the 223 incidents. Specific messages which included the word "lock" when referring to firearm storage were included in 21.9% of all incidents. An analysis examining State CAP laws and the presence of any prevention message per event did not yield any discernable relationship.

CONCLUSION

Inclusion of prevention messaging stating that firearms should be stored locked and unloaded when reporting on unintentional firearm injury deaths among children is lacking. When specific prevention messaging was included, the source was often law enforcement. Public health officials may play an important role in educating the journalistic and law enforcement communities about the inclusion of safe storage messages when reporting on firearm deaths.

The Relationship between Concealed Carry Licenses and Firearm Homicide in the US: A Reciprocal County-Level Analysis

This study investigates the reciprocal county-level relationship between the number of concealed carry weapon (CCW) licenses issued and homicides between 2010 and 2019 in a sample of eleven states. We utilize a random intercept cross-lagged panel model (RI-CLPM) approach accounting for reciprocal effects over time between homicide and concealed carry licenses, providing a robust methodological approach to the study of concealed carry and homicide. The results of the RI-CLPM found that increases in the number of CCWs in 2010-2017 were statistically associated with increases in total gun homicide in 2011-2018. Reciprocally, we found some limited evidence that increases in gun homicide were associated with changes in the number of CCWs issued in subsequent years during the early part of our study period. Far from concealed carry making people safer, our model finds acute safety risks associated with expansion of legal firearm carrying. As the right to carry firearms expands in many states, we emphasize the importance of responsible gun ownership practices, and draw attention to the need to implement preventive laws that keep guns out of the hands of people with prior violent histories and from places where violence risk is amplified.