Follow-up schedule for initial recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma after ablation based on risk classification

Multiparametric liver MRI for predicting early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after microwave ablation

Background

High early recurrence (ER) of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after microwave ablation (MWA) represents a sign of aggressive behavior and severely worsens prognosis. The aim of this study was to estimate the outcome of HCC following MWA and develop a response algorithmic strategy based on multiparametric MRI and clinical variables.

Methods

In this retrospective study, we reviewed the records of 339 patients (mean age, 62 ± 12 years; 106 men) treated with percutaneous MWA for HCC between January 2014 and December 2017 that were evaluated by multiparametric MRI. These patients were randomly split into a development and an internal validation group (3:1). Logistic regression analysis was used to screen imaging features. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was then performed to determine predictors of ER (within 2 years) of MWA. The response algorithmic strategy to predict ER was developed and validated using these data sets. ER rates were also evaluated by Kaplan–Meier analysis.

Results

Based on logistic regression analyses, we established an image response algorithm integrating ill-defined margins, lack of capsule enhancement, pre-ablative ADC, ΔADC, and EADC to calculate recurrence scores and define the risk of ER. In a multivariate Cox regression model, the independent risk factors of ER (p < 0.05) were minimal ablative margin (MAM) (HR 0.57; 95% CI 0.35 – 0.95; p < 0.001), the recurrence score (HR: 9.25; 95% CI 4.25 – 16.56; p = 0.021), and tumor size (HR 6.21; 95% CI 1.25 – 10.82; p = 0.014). Combining MAM and tumor size, the recurrence score calculated by the response algorithmic strategy provided predictive accuracy of 93.5%, with sensitivity of 92.3% and specificity of 83.1%. Kaplan–Meier estimates of the rates of ER in the low-risk and high-risk groups were 6.8% (95% CI 4.0 – 9.6) and 30.5% (95% CI 23.6 – 37.4), respectively.

Conclusion

A response algorithmic strategy based on multiparametric MRI and clinical variables was useful for predicting the ER of HCC after MWA.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40644-022-00471-5.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Follow-Up Schedule for Hepatocellular Carcinoma after Radiofrequency Ablation

Methods

A Markov model was established to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of every 2 months or 2-3 months (2- to 3-month group) versus every 3 months or 3-4 months (3- to 4-month group) posttreatment surveillance in the first two years for HCC after RFA. Transition probabilities and utility values were derived from the literature review. Costs of follow-up were estimated from our institution. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), which was less than $10888 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), was considered cost-effective. Sensitivity analyses were performed to determine the uncertainty of the model.

Results

The 2- to 3-month group gained 1.196 QALYs at a cost of $2212.66, while the effectiveness and cost of the 3- to 4-month group were 1.029 QALYs and $1268.92, respectively. The ICER of the 2- to 3-month group versus the 3- to 4-month group was $5651.14 per QALY gained, which was less than the willingness-to-pay threshold of 1-time gross domestic product per capita of China ($10888/QALY). One-way sensitivity analysis showed that the model was most sensitive to the utility of progression-free survival. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the 2- to 3-month group had a higher probability of being more cost-effective than the 3- to 4-month group when willingness to pay was over $1088.8.

Conclusions

Every 2 months or 2-3 months of follow-up intervals were more cost-effective than 3 months or 3-4 months of follow-up intervals. Thus, the intensive follow-up interval in the first two years was recommended for Child-Pugh class A or B HCC patients within the Milan criteria following RFA.

The guiding value of microvascular invasion for treating early recurrent small hepatocellular carcinoma

INTRODUCTION

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients with microvascular invasion (MVI) have worse survival. Whether the presence of MVI indicates the necessity of more aggressive locoregional treatments for recurrences remains to be elucidated.

METHODS

We reviewed patients who underwent curative hepatectomy for primary HCC in our institution, and 379 patients with recurrent HCC up to three nodules smaller than 3 cm were enrolled. The Kaplan-Meier method was adopted to compare the secondary recurrence-free survival (sRFS) and post-recurrence survival (PRS) among patients undergoing hepatectomy, RFA and transarterial chemoembolization plus RFA (TACE-RFA). Cox regression analyses were performed to identify independent prognostic factors.

RESULTS

Both the sRFS and PRS of the MVI (-) group were significantly longer than those of the MVI (+) group (p = 0.001 and 0.011). For patients with MVI (-), no significant difference was found in sRFS or PRS among recurrent HCC patients receiving hepatectomy, RFA or TACE-RFA (p = 0.149 and 0.821). A similar trend was found in patients with MVI (+) (p = 0.851 and 0.960). Further analysis found that TACE-RFA provided better sRFS than hepatectomy or RFA alone in patients with MVI (+) and early recurrence within two years (p = 0.036 and 0.044).

CONCLUSION

For HCC patients with MVI (+) and early small recurrence, TACE-RFA could achieve better prognosis than hepatectomy or RFA alone, while RFA alone provided comparable survival benefits compared with hepatectomy or TACE-RFA in other HCC patients with small recurrence.

Treatment of hepatitis C virus infection in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: Truth or dare?

The discovery of direct acting antivirals (DAA) with high rates of sustained virusological response is the biggest epoch-making event in the history of hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment. DAAs improve liver function, prevent hepatic decompensation, and might even reverse liver fibrosis. Although initial research pointed towards a potential drawback, it is now known beyond doubt that DAA treatment reduces hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence or recurrence after curative treatments. Unfortunately, the story has reached another plot twist, as several other issues have emerged: (i) Should we treat patients with early HCC and HCV before or after surgery/ablation? (ii) Should patients with HCC on the waiting list receive DAA before or after liver transplantation? (iii) Should we use interferon-free in patients with intermediate stage HCC or in patients under systemic treatments? In this review, we aim to offer some evidence-based answers to these changing clinical dilemmas where possible, or at least some educated guesses in cases were no or little data exists.