Determinants of change in fertility pattern among women in Uganda during the period 2006-2011

Mapping fertility rates at national, sub-national, and local levels in Ethiopia between 2000 and 2019

Background

Fertility rates are key indicators of population health and demographic change, influencing economic development, healthcare planning, and social policies. Understanding subnational variation in fertility rate is important for effective geographical targeting and policy prioritization. This study aimed to identify geographic variation, trends, and determinants of fertility rates in Ethiopia over the past two decades.

Methods

We estimated total fertility rates (TFRs) and age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) using five nationally representative cross-sectional Demographic and Health Surveys collected in Ethiopia between 2000 and 2019. ASFRs represent the number of live births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 49 during the 3 years before each survey, while TFRs indicate the average number of children a woman would have by the end of her reproductive years, calculated as the sum of ASFRs over five-year intervals. We developed model-based geostatistics by incorporating demographic and healthcare access data with spatial random fields to produce high-resolution fertility rate maps. These results were then aggregated to produce fertility rate estimates at local, sub-national, and national levels in Ethiopia.

Results

The national TFR gradually declined from 4.8 live births in 2000 to 4.2 live births in 2019, but it is still above the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. There were sub-national and local variations in TFR, ranging from 5.7 live births in Somalia and 5.3 Oromia regions to 2.7 live births in Addis Ababa and 3.6 live births Dire Dawa cities. Geographical areas with high TFR were mostly associated with a high proportion of Muslim women and low access to health facilities.

Conclusion

Despite a decline in fertility rates among women of reproductive age over the past two decades, marked spatial variation persists at sub-national and local levels in Ethiopia, with demographic factors determining the spatial distribution and rate of decline, highlighting the need for tailored programs and strategies in high-fertility areas to increase access to family planning.

Spatial distribution and determinants of unmet need for family planning among all reproductive‑age women in Uganda: a multi‑level logistic regression modeling approach and spatial analysis

INTRODUCTION

Unmet need for family planning is defined as the percentage of sexually active and fecund women who want to delay the next birth (birth spacing) or who want to stop childbirth (birth limiting) beyond two years but who are not using any modern or traditional method of contraception. Despite the provision of family planning services, the unmet need of family planning remains a challenge in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Thus, this study aimed to assess the spatial distribution and determinant factors of unmet need for family planning among all reproductive‑age women in Uganda.

METHODS

A secondary data analysis was done based on 2016 Ugandan Demographic and Health Surveys (UDHS). Total weighted samples of 18,506 women were included. Data processing and analysis were performed using SPSS Version 26, STATA 14.2, ArcGIS 10.8, and SaTScan 10.1.2 software. Spatial autocorrelation and hotspot analysis was made using Global Moran's index (Moran's I) and Gettis-OrdGi*statistics, respectively. Determinants of unmet needs for family planning were identified by multi-level logistic regression analysis. Variables with a p-value < 0.05 were declared statistically significant predictors.

RESULTS

The spatial distribution of unmet need for family planning among women of reproductive age in Uganda was found to be clustered (Global Moran's I = 0.27, Z-score of 12.71, and p-value < 0.0001). In the multivariable multilevel logistic regression analysis; women in West Nile (AOR = 1.86, 95% CI: 1.39, 2.47), aged 25-49 years old (AOR = .84; 95% CI .72, .99), highly educated (AOR = .69; 95% CI .54, .88), Muslim (AOR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.39), high wealth status (AOR = .73, 95% CI: .64, .82), and had five or more living child (AOR = 1.69, 95% CI: 1.51, 1.88) were significant predictors of unmet need for family planning. Significant hotspot areas were identified in West Nile, Acholi, Teso, and Busoga regions.

CONCLUSION

A significant clustering of unmet need for family planning were found in Uganda. Moreover, age, educational status, religion, wealth status, number of alive children, and region were significant predictors of unmet need for family planning. Therefore, in order to minimize the burdens associated with unmet need, an interventions focusing on promotion of sexual and reproductive health service should be addressed to the identified hotspot areas.

Heterogeneous effects of socio-economic and cultural factors on fertility differentials in Burundi and Morocco during their fertility transition periods: a retrospective, cross-sectional and comparative study

Introduction

few studies have examined the factors influencing fertility differentials and the variation in their effects in countries with different socioeconomic and cultural backgrounds and different fertility transition paces. To address this gap, our study sought to first identify the factors that influenced fertility differentials in Morocco and Burundi during their fertility transition periods, and then to compare the effects of these factors between the two countries.

Methods

using data from the 2003-4 Morocco and 2010 Burundi Demographic and Health Surveys, bivariable and multivariable Poisson regression analyses offset by the natural logarithm of the women´s age were performed to identify the socioeconomic and cultural factors that influenced fertility differentials in Morocco and Burundi during their fertility transition.

Results

our main findings showed that the total number of children ever born ranged from 0 to 17 with a mean of 2.71 ± 2.89 in Burundi and from 0 to 16 with a mean of 1.88 ± 2.80 in Morocco. In Burundi, both socioeconomic and cultural factors like rural residence adjusted incident rate ratio (AIRR) = 1.159, 95% CI: 1.103 - 1.217, P=0.020), women´s illiteracy (AIRR=1.465, 95% CI: 1.241- 1.729, P <0.001) and agricultural profession (AIRR=1. 332, 95% CI: 1.263 - 1.401, P = 0.004), household poverty (AIRR= 1.381, 95% CI: 1.223 - 1.431, p<0.001), infant mortality (AIRR= 1.602, 95% CI: 1.562 - 1.643, p<0.001), early marriage (AIRR= 1.313, 95% CI: 1.264 - 1.364, p<0.001), lack of knowledge of any contraceptives (AIRR= 1.263, 95% CI: 1.125 - 1.310, p = 0.003) and failure to use modern contraceptives (AIRR= 1.520, 95% CI: 1.487 - 1.611, p<0.001) were associated with high number of children ever born. However, in Morocco socioeconomic factors like residence place, women´s agricultural profession and household poverty were not significant. In this country, women´s illiteracy (AIRR=1.428, 95% CI: 1.315 - 1.551, P <0.001), lack of access to mass media (AIRR= 1.241, 95% CI: 1.108 - 1.375, p = 0.006), infant mortality (AIRR=1.222, 95%CI: 1.184 - 1.361, p<0.001), early marriage (AIRR1.481, 95% CI: 1.435 - 1.529, p<0.001), lack of knowledge of any contraceptives (AIRR1.508, 95% CI: 1.409 - 1.613, p<0.001) and failure to use modern contraceptives (AIRR1.745, 95% CI: 1.627 - 1.863, p<0.001) were associated with high fertility but with different effects than in Burundi.

Conclusion

the evidence from this study suggests that interventions to accelerate the fertility transition processes in Burundi and many other countries with slow fertility transitions should be designed and implemented according to each country's local context.

Trends and factors associated with declining lifetime fertility among married women in Kenya between 2003 and 2014: an analysis of Kenya demographic health surveys

BACKGROUND

Globally, fertility has declined in the last three decades. In sub-Saharan Africa Including Kenya, this decline started more recent and at a slower pace compared to other regions. Despite a significant fertility decline in Kenya, there are disparities in intra- and interregional fertility. Reduction in lifetime fertility has health benefits for both the mother and child, thus it is important to improve women and children health outcomes associated with high fertility. The study, therefore evaluated the factors associate with change in lifetime fertility among married women of reproductive age in Kenya between 2003 and 2014.

METHODS

The study used the Kenya Demographic and Health Survey (KDHS) datasets of 2003, 2008 and 2014. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to calculate the mean number of children ever born and to assess the change in fertility across different factors. Poisson regression model with robust standard errors was used to study the relationship between number of children ever born (lifetime fertility) and independent variables. A Poisson-based multivariate decomposition for the nonlinear response model was performed to identify and quantify the contribution of demographic, socioeconomic and reproductive correlates, to the change in lifetime fertility between 2003 and 2014.

RESULTS

The study included 3,917, 4,002, and 7,332 weighted samples of women of reproductive age in 2003, 2008, and 2014, respectively. The mean number of children born declined from 3.8 (95% CI: 3.6-3.9) in 2003 to 3.5 (95% CI: 3.4--3.7) in 2008 and 3.4 (95% CI: 3.3-3.4) in 2014 (p = 0.001). The expected number of children reduced with the age at first sexual intercourse, the age at first marriage across the survey years, and household wealth index. Women who had lost one or more children in the past were likely to have increased number of children. The changes in the effects of women's characteristics between the surveys explained 96.4% of the decline. The main contributors to the change in lifetime fertility was the different in women level of education.

CONCLUSION

The lifetime fertility declined by one-tenth between 2003 and 2014; majorly as a result of the effects of characteristics of women in terms of level of education. These highlights a need to implement education policies that promotes women education focuses on gender equality and women empowerment. Continuous strengthening of the healthcare systems (access to quality antenatal care, skilled delivery, and postpartum care) to reduce child mortality is essential.

Modeling on number of children ever born and its determinants among married women of reproductive age in Ethiopia: A Poisson regression analysis

Background

One of the main components of population dynamics that determine the size, structure, and composition of a country's population is the number of ever-born children. Psychological, economic, social, and demographic factors all have a strong influence on and predict it. However, there is little information on its current status in Ethiopia. As a result, modeling the number of children ever born and its determinants is critical for the Ethiopian government to develop appropriate policies and programs.

Methods

A total of 3260 eligible women were used as a study sample in this study to assess the number of children ever born and determinants among married reproductive age women in Ethiopia. Secondary data were culled from the 2019 Ethiopian Demography and Health Survey datasets. The factors associated with the number of children born were identified using a Poisson regression model (CEB).

Results

The average number of children per mother was 6.09, with a standard deviation of 8.74. There were 2432 (74.6%) rural residents among the total respondents, 2402 (73.7%) have no formal education, and three out of five women are not currently working. The participants' average age was 41.66, with a standard deviation of 3.88. When compared to urban residents, the number of CEB for rural residents is 1.37 times higher. When compared to women with no education, the number of CEB for women with higher education was reduced by 48%. For every unit increase in respondents' current age, the percent change in the number of children ever born increases by 2.4%. For every unit increase in the family's wealth index status, the percent change in the number of children ever born decreases by 1.7%.

Conclusion

When compared to the target of Ethiopia's health transformation plan, the average number of children born is higher. Improving the household wealth index, women's education, and employment status all contribute to a reduction in the number of CEB, which is important in balancing population growth with natural capacity and the country's economic development.

Determinants of fertility in Malawi: Does women autonomy dimension matter?

Background

Power inequality within the household and sexual relationships is linked to poor reproductive health. Malawi Government through National Sexual and Reproductive Health and Rights policy is committed to women empowerment as well fertility reduction. However, there is limited evidence in Malawi regarding whether women’s autonomy in the household is an independent determinant of fertility. With this background, the aim of this study is to investigate whether women’s autonomy in the household is a determinant of fertility in a poor socioeconomic and cultural setting.

Methods

This study used Malawi Demographic and Health Survey, 2015–2016. A multivariable Poisson regression model was used to investigate if women’s autonomy in the household in Malawi determines fertility. The outcome measure, children ever born, was used as a measure of fertility. Women’s autonomy was measured with two dimensions, such as women’s household related decision makings and women’s sexual autonomy. The individual recode and household recode were merged for the analysis. The final study sample was 15,952 women who were cohabiting or married at the time of the survey.

Results

The level of autonomy among women in the household related decisions and sexual autonomy was 49.1% and 64.0% respectively. Controlling for covariates, the study found no significant association between women’s autonomy dimensions in the household and number of children ever born. On the other hand, living in urban area (IRR = 0.91, CI 0.88–0.93); having less than tertiary education thus, no education (IRR = 1.83, CI 1.67–1.99) or primary education (IRR = 1.55, CI 1.42–1.69) or secondary education (IRR = 1.23, CI 1.13–1.33); poor households (IRR = 1.05, CI 1.01–1.09), starting cohabiting at the age of 19 years or less (AIRR = 1.15, CI 1.13–1.18) and not using modern contraceptive methods (AIRR = 1.17, CI 1.15–1.19) were significantly associated with fertility.

Conclusions and recommendations

Though women’s autonomy does not have independent effect on fertility, it may be interacting with other sociocultural norms prevailing in the society. The study recommends that the Government of Malawi should come up with economic hardship emancipation policy for poor households. The government should also come up with a girl-child secondary school completion policy. Furthermore, the government should accelerate the implementation, monitoring and evaluation of National Gender Policy to ensure the women empowerment/autonomy is having positive effect at all level including the household.

Age at First Marriage and Fertility Decline in Dabat Health and Demographic Surveillance System Site, Northwest Ethiopia: Decomposition Analysis

Background

Fertility decline in Ethiopia has been documented since the 1990s. Amhara National Regional State has recorded the most noticeable fertility decline. However, the specific factors that explain the incipient course of fertility decline in the study area and their relative contributions were not well investigated. Hence, the purpose of this study was to determine contributing factors of fertility decline and to assess variations in fertility that can be attributed to both changes in characteristics and reproductive behaviors of women aged 15-49 years between 2008 and 2014 in Dabat Demographic and Health Surveillance Site, Northwest Ethiopia.

Methods

Cross-sectional censuses were carried out in a Dabat Health and Demographic Surveillance System site in 2008 and 2014. Data for 4,775 and 10,807 women of reproductive age in 2008 and 2014 were used for the analysis. A Poisson regression model was employed to assess the trends of determinants of fertility, and multivariate decomposition analysis was applied to evaluate observed changes in fertility using data from two consecutive cross-sectional censuses of Dabat HDSS.

Results

Findings indicated that there was a reduction of an average 640.69 births per 1,000 women of reproductive age during 2014 compared to 2008 in the surveillance site (95% CI=-669.5 to -582.4). This overall change in fertility was attributed to both the changing characteristics of women (76%) (95% CI=-524.74 to -453.13) and their reproductive behavior (24%) (95% CI=-224.36 to -79.14). Drivers of the recent fertility decline were increased age at first marriage, a decreased proportion of currently married women, shift in women's birth to later age, and a higher women's educational status.

Conclusion

This study indicated that the overall reduction in fertility was attributed to both changing characteristics of women and their reproductive behavior. Major contributors to the changes in fertility were postponing women's first marriage to a later age and changes in the proportion of currently married women over the study period. Encouraging women to complete at least secondary education is important to increase the age at first marriage and birth, which will in turn accelerate the current fertility transition.

A Panel Study of Fertility Preferences and Contraceptive Dynamics in the Presence of Competing Pregnancy Risks in Uganda

Although many studies have examined the influence of women's fertility preferences on subsequent fertility behavior and the role of contraceptive use intentions on unmet need, very few have explored their concurrent effects on contraceptive use dynamics. This study examines the independent concurrent effects of women's fertility preferences and contraceptive intentions on subsequent adoption and discontinuation, treating pregnancy as a competing risk factor that may alter contraceptive need. The data are derived from a 2018 follow-up survey of a 2014 national sample of 3,800 Ugandan female respondents of childbearing age. The survey included a contraceptive calendar that recorded pregnancy, birth, and contraceptive event episodes, including reasons for discontinuation. We use competing risk regression to estimate the effect of fertility preferences and contraceptive intentions on the cumulative incidence function of contraceptive behaviors, accounting for intervening pregnancy, female background covariates, loss to follow-up, and complex survey design. We find that women's contraceptive intentions significantly increase the rate of contraceptive adoption. After having adopted, women's contraceptive intentions have been realized and do not prolong use. The risk of discontinuation among women who adopted after baseline was significantly higher than for those using at baseline, irrespective of their initial intentions. The effectiveness of the type of contraceptive method chosen significantly lowered discontinuation risk. Fertility preferences were not significantly associated with either time to adoption or discontinuation. The pace of the fertility transition in this sub-Saharan African setting is likely being shaped by reproductive regulation through the intentional use of contraception that enables spacing births.

Age at first marriage, age at first sex, family size preferences, contraception and change in fertility among women in Uganda: analysis of the 2006-2016 period

BACKGROUND

Uganda's fertility was almost unchanging until the year 2006 when some reductions became visible. Compared to age at first marriage and contraceptive use, age at sexual debut and family size preferences are rarely examined in studies of fertility decline. In this study, we analyzed the contribution of age at first marriage, age at first sex, family size preferences and contraceptive use to change in fertility in Uganda between 2006 and 2016.

METHODS

Using data from the 2006 and 2016 Uganda Demographic and Health Survey (UDHS), we applied a nonlinear multivariate decomposition technique to quantify the contribution of age at first marriage, age at first sex, family size preference and contraceptive use to the change in fertility observed during the 2006-2016 period.

RESULTS

The findings indicate that 37 and 63% of the change in fertility observed between 2006 and 2016 was respectively associated with changing characteristics and changing fertility behavior of the women. Changes in proportion of women by; age at first marriage, age at first sex, family size preferences and contraceptive use were respectively associated with 20.6, 10.5 and 8.4% and 8.2% of the change in fertility but only fertility behavior resulting from age at first sex was significantly related to the change in fertility with a contribution of 43.5%.

CONCLUSIONS

The study quantified the contribution of age at first marriage, age at first sex, family size preferences and contraceptive use to the change in fertility observed between 2006 and 2016. We highlight that of the four factors, only age at sexual debut made a significant contribution on the two components of the decomposition. There is need to address the low age at first sex, accessibility, demand for family planning services and youth-friendly family planning services to young unmarried women such that they can achieve their desired fertility. The contribution of other factors such as education attainment by women and place of residence and their relationship with changes in fertility calls for addressing if further reduction in fertility is to be realised.

Determinants of Change in Fertility among Women in Rural Areas of Uganda

Fertility among rural women in Uganda continues to decline. Studies on fertility in Uganda have focused on the overall fertility in the country. In this study, we focus on determinants of change in fertility among rural women in Uganda using a multivariate Poisson decomposition technique to quantify the contribution of changes in the socioeconomic and demographic composition of women which we also refer to as the characteristic effects and changes in their fertility behavior (the coefficients' effects or risk of childbearing) to the overall reduction in fertility among women in rural areas during the 2006–2016 period. The “characteristics effects” are used to mean the effect of changing composition of women by the socioeconomic and demographic characteristics between 2006 and 2016. On the other hand, fertility behavior also presented as coefficients' effects mean changes in the risk or likelihood of giving birth to children by the rural women between the two survey years. Our findings indicate that the mean number of children ever born (MCEB) reduced from 4.5 to 3.9 in 2006 and this reduction was associated with both the changes in composition of women and fertility behavior. The composition of women contributed to 42% while the fertility behavior contributed to 58% of the observed reduction. The education level attained and the age at first sex showed significant contributions on both components of the decomposition. The observed decline in fertility is largely associated with the variation in the risk of childbearing among the rural women. The variation in the risk of childbearing by education and age at first sex of the rural women showed to be the biggest contribution to the observed change in fertility. Continued improvements in access, attendance, and completion of secondary schools by women in rural areas will be the key drivers to Uganda's overall transition to low fertility. Furthermore, with improved access to mass media in the rural areas, there can be changes in attitudes and large family size preferences which can create a conducive environment for the utilization of family planning services in the rural communities. Efforts should therefore focus on applying appropriate methods to deliver packaged family planning messages to these communities.