Machine Learning for Understanding and Predicting Injuries in Football

Physical fitness and motor ability parameters as predictors for skateboarding performance: A logistic regression modelling analysis

The identification and prediction of athletic talent are pivotal in the development of successful sporting careers. Traditional subjective assessment methods have proven unreliable due to their inherent subjectivity, prompting the rise of data-driven techniques favoured for their objectivity. This evolution in statistical analysis facilitates the extraction of pertinent athlete information, enabling the recognition of their potential for excellence in their respective sporting careers. In the current study, we applied a logistic regression-based machine learning pipeline (LR) to identify potential skateboarding athletes from a combination of fitness and motor skills performance variables. Forty-five skateboarders recruited from a variety of skateboarding parks were evaluated on various skateboarding tricks while their fitness and motor skills abilities that consist of stork stance test, dynamic balance, sit ups, plank test, standing broad jump, as well as vertical jump, were evaluated. The performances of the skateboarders were clustered and the LR model was developed to classify the classes of the skateboarders. The cluster analysis identified two groups of skateboarders: high and low potential skateboarders. The LR model achieved 90% of mean accuracy specifying excellent prediction of the skateboarder classes. Further sensitivity analysis revealed that static and dynamic balance, lower body strength, and endurance were the most important factors that contributed to the model's performance. These factors are therefore essential for successful performance in skateboarding. The application of machine learning in talent prediction can greatly assist coaches and other relevant stakeholders in making informed decisions regarding athlete performance.

Development of an algorithm-based approach using neuromuscular test results to indicate an increased risk for non-contact lower limb injuries in elite football players

Objectives

This retrospective cohort study explored an algorithm-based approach using neuromuscular test results to indicate an increased risk for non-contact lower limb injuries in elite football players.

Methods

Neuromuscular data (eccentric hamstring strength, isometric adduction and abduction strength and countermovement jump) of 77 professional male football players were assessed at the start of the season (baseline) and, respectively, at 4, 3, 2 and 1 weeks before the injury. We included 278 cases (92 injuries; 186 healthy) and applied a subgroup discovery algorithm.

Results

More injuries occurred when between-limb abduction imbalance 3 weeks before injury neared or exceeded baseline values (threshold≥0.97), or adduction muscle strength of the right leg 1 week before injury remained the same or decreased compared with baseline values (threshold≤1.01). Moreover, in 50% of the cases, an injury occurred if abduction strength imbalance before the injury is over 97% of the baseline values and peak landing force in the left leg 4 weeks before the injury is lower than 124% compared with baseline.

Conclusions

This exploratory analysis provides a proof of concept demonstrating that a subgroup discovery algorithm using neuromuscular tests has potential use for injury prevention in football.

Predictive modeling of the ratings of perceived exertion during training and competition in professional soccer players

OBJECTIVES

Evaluate the ability of predicting the ratings of perceived exertion from the external load variables in professional soccer players through a chronological perspective (i.e., past features values are considered additional features) through machine learning models by considering the playing position.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

METHODS

Thirty-eight elite soccer players aged 19-27 years were observed during 151 training sessions, 44 matches across a full season. External load variables (58 derived from Global Positioning System and 30 from accelerometers) and the internal load derived from ratings of perceived exertion were collected for each player and each session and match. Machine learning models (linear regression, K-NN, decision trees, random forest, elastic net regression, XGBoost) were compared and interpreted in order to deepen the relationship between external load variables and ratings of perceived exertion according to the player position in a predictive perspective.

RESULTS

Application of the machine learning models on the dataset provided enough predictive power to reduce the Root Mean Squared Error of 60 % from dummy predictions. The most accurate models (Root Mean Squared Error ≈ 1.1 for random forest and = 1 for XGBoost) highlighted a memory effect in subsequent ratings of perceived exertion values. Past ratings of perceived exertion values over one month were the strongest predicting factors of ratings of perceived exertion as compared to various external load indicators.

CONCLUSIONS

The tree-based machine learning models showed statistically significant predictive ability, indicating valuable information for understanding the training load responses based on ratings of perceived exertion changes.