Incidence and predictors of loss to follow-up among HIV-positive adults in northwest Ethiopia: a retrospective cohort study

Predictors of loss to follow up among adults on antiretroviral therapy before and after the start of treat-all strategy in public health facilities of Hawassa city, Ethiopia: A Competing risk regression

BACKGROUND

Treat-all strategies improved patient outcomes, despite higher rates of loss to follow-up compared to the pre-treat era. Patients in Ethiopia experienced a higher rate of LTFU during the treat-all strategy period; however, studies did not identify contributing factors in comparison with previous strategies. This study aimed to assess the incidence and predictors of loss to follow-up before and after the start of the treat-all strategy among adults on anti-retroviral therapy in public health facilities in Hawassa City, Ethiopia.

METHODS

An institution-based retrospective follow-up study was conducted among 1190 randomly selected adults on antiretroviral therapy in public health facilities in Hawassa City. Using the Open Data Kit (ODK), data were collected from medical records and exported to Stata version 16 and R 4.2.1 for analysis. A Grays test and cumulative incidence curve were used to compare the cumulative incidence function of loss to follow-up. Bivariable and multivariable competing risk regression were fitted to identify predictors of LTFU and variables with a p-value <0.05 were considered significant.

RESULTS

The cumulative incidence of lost-to-follow-up was 4.92(3.84,6.3) and 8.67(7.26,10.3) per 100 person-years (PY) in pre-treat all and treat all cohorts, respectively. The cumulative incidence of mortality was 5.86(4.67,7.35) and 3(2.26,4.12) per 100 PY in pre-treat and treat all cohorts, respectively. Fair/poor adherence (aSHR:5.17; (95% CI 1.97, 13.51), underweight (aSHR:2.13; 95% CI: 1.15-3.93) and WHO stage III/IV (aSHR:2.69; 95% CI: 1.27, 5.71) were predictors of loss up in pre-treat all, whereas fair/poor adherence (aSHR = 2.07; 95% CI: 1.18, 3.68), underweight (aSHR:1.71; 95% CI: 1.13, 2.56), and CD4 cell >350 cell/m3 (aSHR: 1.67; 95% CI: 1.05, 2.65) predicts of loss up in treat all cohorts.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrated that the incidence of loss to follow-up was considerably higher in the treat-all period as compared to the pre-treat-all era. Poor medication compliance, underweight, and a CD4 level >350 cells/m3 contributed to the higher rate of LTFU in the treat-all strategy. Targeted interventions, such as nutritional support and strengthening medication adherence counseling, should be implemented to maintain treatment retention and reduce antiretroviral therapy dropout rates.

Incidence and predictors of loss to follow-up among adult patients receiving antiretroviral therapy in Central Ethiopia: a multi-center retrospective cohort study

Background

Globally, loss to follow-up (LTFU) remains a significant public health concern despite the rapid expansion of antiretroviral medication programs. It is a significant cause of treatment failure and threatens the enhancement of HIV treatment outcomes among patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART). However, there is a paucity of evidence on its incidence and predictors in Ethiopia. Thus, this study aimed to examine the incidence and predictors of LTFU among adult HIV patients receiving ART at hospitals in Central Ethiopia.

Methods

A multi-centered facility-based retrospective cohort study was conducted among 432 randomly selected adult patients who received antiretroviral therapy. Data were entered into EpiData version 3.1 and exported to Stata version 14 for analysis. The Kaplan-Meier failure function was employed to determine the overall failure estimates, and the log-rank test was used to compare the probability of failure among the different categories of variables. The Cox proportional hazard model was used to identify independent predictors of LTFU.

Results

Overall, 172 (39.8%) study participants were lost to follow-up over the 10-year follow-up period with an incidence rate of 8.12 (95% CI: 7.11, 9.09) per 1,000 person-months. Undisclosed HIV status (AHR: 1.96, 95% CI: 1.14, 3.36), not able to work (AHR: 1.84, 95% CI: 1.13, 2.22), opportunistic infections (AHR: 3.13, 95% CI: 2.17, 4.52), CD4 < 200 cell/mL (AHR: 1.95, 95% CI: 1.18, 3.21), not receiving isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT) (AHR: 2.57, 95% CI: 1.62, 4.06), not participating in clubs (AHR: 1.68, 95% CI: 1.10, 2.22), side effects of drugs (AHR: 1.44, 95% CI: 1.02, 2.04), and high viral load (AHR: 3.15, 95% CI: 1.81, 5.47) were identified as significant predictors of loss to follow-up.

Conclusion

In this study, the incidence of LTFU was high. The focus should be on creating awareness and prevention programs that aim to reduce loss to follow-up by continuing counseling, especially on the negative effects of loss to follow-up and the benefits of ART care.

Determinants of Loss to Follow Up Among Adult People Living with HIV Enrolled in Antiretroviral Therapy in West Wollega Public Hospitals, Oromia, Ethiopia

Background

Antiretroviral Treatment (ART) reduces morbidity and mortality in patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). However, clients loss to follow-up (LTFU) from the treatment poses a paramount problem to the public, healthcare, and patient outcome. Thus, this study identified determinants of loss to follow-up to ART among adult clients in West Wollega hospitals, Oromia, Ethiopia, in 2021.

Methods

An unmatched case-control study was conducted and a systematic random sampling technique was used. Data were collected from patient charts by three BSC nurses and three card reporters using a structured checklist. Then, it was entered into Epi-data version 3.1 and analyzed using SPSS version 21. Descriptive statistics (frequency and percentage) were used to present the results. Bivariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed using the backward stepwise method. Adjusted odds ratio (AOR) and p-values <0.05 were used to declare significant association with loss to follow-up. Model fitness was checked using Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit.

Results

A total of 399 (133 patients and 266 controls) participated in this study. Rural residents (AOR:3.46, 95% CI:1.65, 7.25), male patient (AOR: 2.65 95% CI 1.54,4.55), lack of formal education (AOR: 4.35, 95% CI 1.53, 12.41), base line CD4 ≤350 (AOR: 5.25, 95% CI 1.93,14.24), poor functional status (AOR: 4.298, 95% CI 5.33,34.62) and WHO stages III & IV (AOR: 2.65, 95% CI 1.68,4.19), and tuberculosis co-infection (AOR: 2.82, 95% CI 1.11,7.45) were determinant factors of loss to follow up.

Conclusion

Rural residence, male sex, daily laborer, no formal education, baseline CD4 count <350 cells/mm3, baseline advanced WHO clinical stage, and TB co-infection were determinants of LTFU. Therefore, emphasis should be given to the identified factors along with awareness creation and health education sessions. Regular TB screening, optimal adherence regardless of their stay on ART, and follow-up study are recommended.

Incidence and predictors of loss to follow-up among Ethiopian children on antiretroviral therapy: a systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Loss of follow-up (LTFU) from ART regular follow-up is one of the key acknowledged causes for the development of ART-resistant virus strains currently. It becomes a major weakness for the successful implementation of HIV care and treatment programs mainly in Sub-Saharan Africa but also globally. About 20-40% of children on ART loss their regular ART follow-up annually. Because of the inconsistency of the prior publications' findings, policymakers, programmers, and healthcare providers find it difficult to intervene. Hence, this study was conducted to provide a pooled incidence and identify the predictors of LTFU among children on ART in Ethiopia.

METHODS

Articles were searched from PubMed/ MEDLINE, CINAHL, EMBASE, Google Scholar, and Science Direct, as well as organizational records and websites. This review included both retrospective and prospective follow-up studies published in English. The data were extracted using Microsoft Excel and exported into Stata™ Version 17.0 for further processing and analysis. The presence of heterogeneity was assessed using forest plots with the I2 test. To identify the source of heterogeneity subgroup analysis, meta-regression, publication bias, and sensitivity analysis were computed. The pooled incidence of LTFU was estimated using a random effects meta-analysis model with the DerSimonian-laired method. To identify the predictors, a 95% confidence interval with relative risk was used to declare the presence or absence of an association.

RESULTS

In this systematic review and Meta-analysis, nine studies with a total of 3336 children were included. The pooled incidence of LTFU from ART was 5.83 (95% CI: 3.94, 7.72) per 100 children-years of observation with I2: 83% & p-value < 0.001. Those children who were from rural were had a 1.65 (95% CI: 1.06, 2.52) times higher chance of getting LTFU when compared with their counterparts. Children who had poor ART adherence had a 2.03 (95% CI: 1.23, 3.34) times higher chance of experiencing LTFU of ART than children having good ART adherence.

CONCLUSIONS

Among Ethiopian children on ART, one out of 167 had the risk of experiencing LTFU. Being rural dwellers and having poor ART adherence were the identified predictors of LTFU. Close follow-up and phone message text should be used to have good ART adherence among rural dwellers to meet the predetermined goal of ART.

Loss to Follow-up and Death Among Individuals With Newly Diagnosed Human Immunodeficiency Virus Receiving Dolutegravir-Based First-Line Antiretroviral Treatment in Eastern Ethiopia: Implications for 95% United Nations Targets

Background

Loss to follow-up (LTFU) and death are unfavorable outcomes of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment. This study aimed to identify the predictors of LTFU and death among individuals with newly diagnosed HIV receiving dolutegravir (DTG)-based first-line antiretroviral treatment (ART) in eastern Ethiopia.

Methods

A multisite prospective cohort study was carried out between October 2020 and July 2022. New case patients who started ART were enrolled consecutively and then followed up for the next 6 months. A structured questionnaire and checklists were used to collect data. HIV viral load was determined using the Abbott RealTime HIV-1 assay. Bivariable and multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify baseline factors associated with the outcomes.

Results

A total of 235 people with newly diagnosed HIV were enrolled; 16.6% (95% confidence interval, 12.3%-21.9%) were lost to follow-up, and 5.9% (3.5%-9.8%) died within 6 months of follow-up. Baseline World Health Organization clinical stage I (adjusted odds ratio, 3.93 [95% confidence interval, 1.34-11.57]), low viral load (3.67 [1.09-12.36]), and body weight (1.04 [1.01-1.07]) were predictors of LTFU, whereas nonfunctional status (10.02 [1.9-51.3]) was the only factor associated with death.

Conclusions

LTFU and death rates among patients with DTG were relatively high, accounting for roughly a quarter of the attrition of people with newly diagnosed HIV from ART care and services. Thus, targeted interventions are required to reduce LTFU and death among individuals with HIV on ART. Further investigation is necessary to evaluate the long-term effects of DTG-based regimens on LTFU and its impact on HIV mortality rates, and qualitative research, specifically tracing LTFU, is recommended.

Incidence and predictors of attrition among adults receiving first line anti-retroviral therapy at public health facility in Adea Berga district, Oromia, Ethiopia

Background

According to current estimates, there are 665,723 people in Ethiopia who have human immunodeficiency syndrome. As Ethiopia inches closer to attaining the 95/95/95 targets for treatment coverage and reaching epidemic control, however, attrition from anti-retroviral treatment is still one of the key programmatic challenges.

Objective

To assess the incidence of attrition rate and its predictors among adult HIV patients receiving anti retro viral treatment at Public Health Facility in Adea Berga/Enchini District.

Method

A 6-year (June 28, 2015 to June 27, 2021) institution-based retrospective cohort study was used to recruit 540 study participants by using simple random sampling. Data were obtained from chart review, coded, entered into Epi Data, and exported to Stata 14.2 software for analysis. At least 1 month missed appointment is considered as attrition and the predictors of attrition were identified using bivariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazard models and an adjusted hazard ratio (AHR). Bivariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to find predictors of attrition, p-value < 0.05 was considered statistically significant.

Results

From the total 540 study participant, 158 (29.26%) patients were discontinuing from follow up making the incidence rate of attrition 9.50 per 100 person years .Being WHO clinical stage III or IV (AHR = 1.96,), non-practice of Appointment spacing model (AHR = 3.98), poor or fair ART adherence level (AHR = 6.47), age groups (15-24) years (AHR = 1.73) and Others ART linkage points[index case testing, tuberculosis clinic and referral from private/public health institutions] (AHR = 1.76) were significantly associated.

Conclusions

The study showed that the incidence of attrition among adults receiving antiretroviral therapy was high. Patient sociodemographic, clinical, and treatment-related factors were significantly associated with patients on ART.

Incidence and Predictors of Loss to Follow-Up Among Adults on Antiretroviral Therapy in South Gondar Governmental Hospitals, Ethiopia: Retrospective Cohort Study

Background

Approximately 38.4 million adult people worldwide live with HIV, of which the majority live in Africa. In Ethiopia increasing the quality of life to HIV patients and preventing HIV transmission are challenging. Even though test-and-treat strategy is applied for early enrollment to ART, poor retention and loss to follow-up are hindering the care.

Objective

This study examined the incidence and predictors of loss to follow-up among adult HIV patients on ART in South Gondar governmental hospitals, September 11, 2017-September 10, 2022.

Methods

A multi-facility-based retrospective follow-up study was conducted. Study subjects were assigned using simple random sampling methods by their medical record numbers. The data were entered into EPI data version 3.0.2 and exported to STATA version 17 for analysis. The Kaplan-Meier failure function was employed to determine the overall failure estimates. Cox proportional hazard model was tailored for both bi-variable and multivariable. Variables at p-value <0.05 with 95% CI were significantly associated with loss to follow-up.

Results

In this study, about 559 adult HIV survivors were included, and the response rate was 98%. The mean age and standard deviation (±SD) of study subjects were 36.6±9.3 years. The incidence rate of loss to follow-up was 6.7 per 100 person-years (95% CI: 5.6, 8.1). Educational status [AHR: 1.68 (95% CI: 1.04, 2.72)], substance use [AHR: 2.38 (95% CI: 1.50, 3.75)], and ART adherence [AHR: 3.33 (95% CI: 1.38, 8.08)] were significant determinants to loss to follow-up.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the study finding reported that the incidence of loss to follow-up was low. HIV patients who did not have formal education, substance users, and poor ART adherence were at greater hazard of being lost to follow-up. In order to mitigate the rate of loss to follow-up, it is recommended to strengthen the available intervention modalities.

Predictors of the observed high prevalence of loss to follow-up in ART-experienced adult PLHIV: a retrospective longitudinal cohort study in the Tanga Region, Tanzania

BACKGROUND

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) programs have expanded rapidly, and they are now accessible free of charge, yet "loss to follow-up, LTFU" is still a national public health issue. LTFU may result in treatment failure, hospitalization, increased risk of opportunistic infections and drug-resistant strains, and shortening the quality of life. This study described the rates and predictors of LTFU among adults living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLHIV) on ART in the Tanga region, Tanzania.

METHODS

A retrospective longitudinal cohort study was conducted between October 2018 and December 2020 in Tanga's care and treatment health services facilities. The participants were HIV adult PLHIV aged 15 years and above on ART and attended the clinic at least once after ART initiation. LTFU was defined as not taking ART refills for 3 months or beyond from the last attendance of a refill and not yet classified as dead or transferred out. Cox proportional hazard regression models were employed to identify risk factors for LTFU. P values were two-sided, and we considered a p < 0.05 statistically significant.

RESULTS

57,173 adult PLHIV were on ART of them, 15,111 (26.43%) were LTFU, of whom 10,394 (68.78%) were females, and 4717 (31.22%) were males. Factors independently associated with LTFU involved age between 15 and 19 years (HR: 1.85, 95% CI 1.66-2.07), male sex (HR: 2.00 95% CI 1.51-2.62), divorce (HR: 1.35, 95% CI 1.24-1.48), second-line drug type (HR: 1.13, 95% CI 1.09-1.18), poor drug adherence (HR: 1.50, 95% CI 1.23-1.75), unsuppressed viral load (HR: 2.15, 95% CI 2.02-2.29), not on DTG-related drug (HR: 7.51, 95% CI 5.88-10.79), advanced HIV disease WHO stage III and IV (HR: 2.51, 95% CI 2.32-2.72). In contrast to cohabiting, ART duration < 1 year, and being pregnant showed a reduced likelihood of LTFU.

CONCLUSION

A high prevalence of LTFU was observed in this study. Young age, not using DTG-based regimen, WHO clinical stage IV, poor drug adherence, male sex, unsuppressed viral load, divorcee, and second-line regime were independently associated with LTFU. To reduce LTFU, evidence-based interventions targeting the identified risk factors should be employed.

Incidence and factors associated with being lost to follow-up among people living with HIV and receiving antiretroviral therapy in Nyarugenge the central business district of Kigali city, Rwanda

BACKGROUND

Lost to follow-up (LTFUP) continues to threaten the sustainability of antiretroviral therapy (ART) benefits and success of ART programs. We determined the incidence and predictors of LTFUP among people living with HIV (PLHIV) on ART in Nyarugenge the Central Business District of Kigali city.

METHODS

A cohort of PLHIV who initiated ART in 2018 was retrospectively studied for 24 months. Using health facility records, a person who had no record of contact with the health facility for at least three consecutive months was considered LTFUP. LTFUP incidence rates were computed, and the Fine-Gray's competing risk regression models were used to determine factors associated with time to first LTFUP. Generalized estimating equations (GEEs) were used to analyze repeated measurement outcomes of LTFUP and predictors of LTFUP.

RESULTS

Of 950 participants, 581 (61.2%) were females and 866 (91.2%) were 15 to 49 years old. From 1,586.1 person years of observation (pyo), 148 participants got LTFUP for 451 times. The incidence rate to first event was 9.4 per 100 pyo (95%CI:7.9-10.9) and 31.8 per 100 pyo (95%CI:29.0-34.4) to multiple events. WHO stage, marital status, employment status and person to contact when PLHIV is not reachable were associated with time to first LTFUP event. However, an average participant with a contact person who was not a Community Health Worker (CHW) or a peer educator had higher incidence of LTUP (aIRR = 2.69, 95%CI: 1.43-5.06), an average single patients had higher incidence of LTFUP (aIRR = 1.74, 95%CI: 1.28-2.34) compared to married/co-habiting, and an average self-employed had higher incidence of LTFUP (aIRR = 1.51, 95%CI: 1.14-2.01) compared to participants employed by others. Furthermore, an average PLHIV living out-of-the health facility catchment area had higher incidence of LTFUP (aIRR = 1.55, 95%CI: 1.19-2.01) compared to an average PLHIV living in the health facility catchment area whereas, an average children initiated on first line had lower incidence of LTUP (aIRR = 0.43, 95%CI: 0.21-0.86) compared to adults.

CONCLUSION

Using CHW and peer educators as contact persons can help to reduce LTFUP while, targeted sensitization and service delivery are needed for single, self-employed and, patients living out of the health facility catchment area.

Loss to follow-up in "test and treat era" and its predictors among HIV-positive adults receiving ART in Northwest Ethiopia: Institution-based cohort study

Background

People living with HIV/AIDS are enrolled in lifelong Anti-Retroviral Treatment (ART) irrespective of their clinical staging as well as CD4 cell count. Although this "Universal Test and Treat" strategy of ART was found to have numerous benefits, loss from follow-up and poor retention remained a long-term challenge for the achievement of ART program targets. Hence, this study is aimed at addressing the much-needed effect of the test and treat strategy on the incidence of loss to follow-up (LTFU) in Ethiopia.

Method and materials

An institution-based follow-up study was conducted on 513 adults (age ≥15) who enrolled in ART at a public health institution in Bahir Dar City, Northwest Ethiopia. Data were extracted from the charts of selected patients and exported to Stata 14.2 software for analysis. Basic socio-demographic, epidemiological, and clinical characteristics were described. The Kaplan-Meier curve was used to estimate the loss to follow-up free (survival) probability of HIV-positive adults at 6, 12, 24, and 48 months of ART therapy. We fitted a multivariable Cox model to determine the statistically significant predictors of LTFU.

Result

The incidence density of LTFU was 9.7 per 100 person-years of observation (95% CI: 7.9-11.9 per 100 PYO). Overall, LTFU is higher in the rapid ART initiation (24% in rapid initiated vs. 11.3% in lately initiated, AHR 2.08, P = 0.004), in males (23% males vs. 14.7% females, AHR1.96, P = 0.004), in singles (34% single vs. 11% married, with AHR1.83, P = 0.044), in non-disclosed HIV-status (33% non-disclosed 11% disclosed, AHR 2.00 p = 0.001). Patients with poor/fair ART adherence were also identified as another risk group of LTFU (37% in poor vs. 10.5% in good adherence group, AHR 4.35, P = 0.001).

Conclusion

The incidence of LTFU in this universal test and treat era was high, and the highest figure was observed in the first 6 months. Immediate initiation of ART in a universal test and treat strategy shall be implemented cautiously to improve patient retention and due attention shall be given to those high-risk patients.

Development and validation of a risk prediction model for lost to follow-up among adults on active antiretroviral therapy in Ethiopia: a retrospective follow-up study

Background

Over 420,000 people have initiated life-saving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Ethiopia; however, lost-to-follow-up (LTFU) rates continues to be high. A clinical decision tool is needed to identify patients at higher risk for LTFU to provide individualized risk prediction to intervention. Therefore, this study aimed to develop and validate a statistical risk prediction tool that predicts the probability of LTFU among adult clients on ART.

Methods

A retrospective follow-up study was conducted among 432 clients on ART in Gondar Town, northwest, Ethiopia. Prognostic determinates included in the analysis were determined by multivariable logistic regression. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) and calibration plot were used to assess the model discriminative ability and predictive accuracy, respectively. Individual risk prediction for LTFU was determined using both regression formula and score chart rule. Youden index value was used to determine the cut-point for risk classification. The clinical utility of the model was evaluated using decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

The incidence of LTFU was 11.19 (95% CI 8.95–13.99) per 100-persons years of observation. Potential prognostic determinants for LTFU were rural residence, not using prophylaxis (either cotrimoxazole or Isoniazid or both), patient on appointment spacing model (ASM), poor drug adherence level, normal Body mass index (BMI), and high viral load (viral copies > 1000 copies/ml). The AUROC was 85.9% (95% CI 82.0–89.6) for the prediction model and the risk score was 81.0% (95% CI 76.7–85.3) which was a good discrimination probability. The maximum sensitivity and specificity of the probability of LTFU using the prediction model were 72.07% and 83.49%, respectively. The calibration plot of the model was good (p-value = 0.350). The DCA indicated that the model provides a higher net benefit following patients based on the risk prediction tool.

Conclusion

The incidence of LTFU among clients on ART in Gondar town was high (> 3%). The risk prediction model presents an accurate and easily applicable prognostic prediction tool for clients on ART. A prospective follow-up study and external validation of the model is warranted before using the model.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-022-07691-x.

Loss to follow-up of patients in HIV care in Burundi: A retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

The objective was to assess the loss to follow-up (LTFU) rates and associated factors amongst patients in HIV care in Burundi.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study in HIV-positive patients aged ≥15 years who started antiretroviral therapy (ART) between January 2015 and July 2020, with 31 December 2020 as the end point. The outcome of LTFU was defined as failure of a patient to report for drug refill within 90 days from the last appointment. Study data were extracted from the national AIDS Info database. The LTFU proportion was determined using the Kaplan-Meier method with the log-rank test, whereas LTFU risk factors were explored using the Cox regression model.

RESULTS

A total of 29,829 patients on ART were included in the analysis. Cumulative incidence of LTFU was 2.3% at 12 months, 6.5% at 24 months, 12.7% at 36 months, 19.0% at 48 months, 24.1% at 60 months and 25.3% at 72 months. The overall LTFU incidence rate was 11.2 per 100 person-years of observation. The risk of LTFU was higher amongst patients who started ART after 2016 (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.75, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.65-1.85) or within 7 days after diagnosis (aHR 1.27, 95% CI 1.21-1.35).

CONCLUSION

Our findings demonstrate the relatively high incidence of LTFU in the Burundi HIV programme. Interventions targeting patients with risk factors for LTFU are particularly necessary.

Incidence and Predictors of Loss to Follow Up among Patients Living with HIV under Dolutegravir in Bunia, Democratic Republic of Congo: A Prospective Cohort Study

This study aimed to examine the incidence and predictors of loss to follow up (LTFU) in the context of ongoing atrocities caused by armed conflict, where HIV treatment programs and HIV-infected patients may face unique challenges in terms of ART adherence and retention in care. We conducted an observational prospective cohort study of 468 patients living with HIV (PLWHIV) under dolutegravir (DTG) in all health facilities in Bunia between July 2019 and July 2021. Kaplan-Meier plots were used to determine the probability of LTFU as a function of time as inclusive of the cohort. The main outcome variable was LTFU, defined as not taking an ART refill for a period of 3 months or longer from the last attendance for refill, and not yet classified as 'dead' or 'transferred-out.' The log-rank test was used to compare survival curves based on predictors. Cox proportional hazard modeling was used to measure predictors of LTFU from the baseline until 31 July 2021 (the endpoint). A total of 3435.22 person-months (p-m) were involved in follow up, with an overall incidence rate of 33.48 LTFU per 1000 p-m. Patients who had less experience with ART at enrolment and the ethnically Sudanese, had a higher hazard of being LTFU compared to their reference groups. This study reports a high LTFU rate in this conflict setting. An ART program in such a setting should pay more attention to naive patients and other particularly vulnerable patients such as Sudanese during the pre-ART phase. The study implies the implementation of innovative strategies to address this high risk of being LTFU, reducing either the cost or the distance to the health facility.

Predictors of Loss to Follow-Up among HIV-Infected Adults after Initiation of the First-Line Antiretroviral Therapy at Arba Minch General Hospital, Southern Ethiopia: A 5-Year Retrospective Cohort Study

Background

Loss to follow-up (LTFU) from antiretroviral therapy (ART) reduces treatment benefits and leads to treatment failure. Hence, this study was aimed at determining the incidence of loss to follow-up and predictors among HIV-infected adults who began first-line antiretroviral therapy at Arba Minch General Hospital.

Methods

We carried out an institutional-based retrospective cohort study, and data were collected from the charts of 508 patients who were selected using a simple random sampling technique. All the data management and statistical analyses were conducted using STATA version 14. Cumulative survival probability was estimated and presented in the life table, and the Kaplan-Meir survival curves were compared using the log-rank test. The Cox proportional hazard model was used to identify the independent predictors.

Results

We followed 508 patients for 871.9 person-years. A total of 46 (9.1%) experienced loss to follow-up, yielding an overall incidence rate of 5.3 (95% CI: 3.9-7.1) per 100 person-years. The cumulative survival probability was 90%, 88%, 86%, and 86% at the end of one, two, three, and four years, respectively. The predictors identified were age less than 35 years (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR = 1.96; 95% CI: 1.92-4.00)), rural residence (aHR = 1.98; 95% CI: 1.02-3.83), baseline body weight greater than 60 kilograms (aHR = 2.19; 95% CI: 1.11-4.37), a fair level of adherence (aHR = 11.5; 95% CI: 2.10-61.10), and a poor level of adherence (aHR = 12.03; 95% CI: 5.4-26.7).

Conclusions

In this study, the incidence rate of loss to follow-up was low. Younger adults below the age of 35 years, living in rural areas, with a baseline weight greater than 60 kilograms, which had a fair and poor adherence level were more likely to be lost from treatment. Therefore, health professionals working in ART clinics and potential stakeholders in HIV/AIDS care and treatment should consider adult patients with these characteristics to prevent LTFU.