Effects of scaling up various community-level interventions on child mortality in Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Uganda and Tanzania: a modeling study

Contribution of community health workers to the treatment of common illnesses among under 5-year-olds in rural Uganda

Background

The control of malaria, pneumonia, and diarrhoea is important for the reduction in morbidity and mortality among children under 5 years. Uganda has adopted the Integrated Community Case Management strategy using Community Health Workers (CHWs) to address this challenge. The extent and trend of these three conditions managed by the CHWs are not well documented. This study was done to describe the epidemiology and trends of the three common illnesses treated by the CHWs in Bugoye Sub-County in rural Uganda.

Methods

A retrospective review of monthly morbidity data for children less than 5 years of age for the period April 2014–December 2018 for CHWs in rural Bugoye Sub-County in Kasese district, Uganda was done. The total number reviewed was 18,430 records. The data were analysed using STATA version 14.

Results

In total male were 50.2% of the sample, pneumonia was the highest cause of illness among the infants (< 1 year), while malaria was the highest among the children 1 year–59 months. Infection with a single illness was the commonest recorded cause of presentation but there were some children recorded with multiple illnesses. All the CHWs were managing the three common illnesses among children under 5 years. The trend of the three common illnesses was changing from malaria to pneumonia being the commonest. Children aged 12–24 months and 25–59 months were at 2.1 times (95% CI 1.7–2.4) and 5.2 times (95% CI 4.6–5.9), respectively, more likely to get malaria but less likely to get pneumonia and diarrhoea.

Conclusion

Community Health Workers in rural Uganda are contributing significantly to the management of all the three commonest illnesses among under-5 years-old children. The trend of the commonest illness is changing from malaria to pneumonia. Children under 1 year are at a higher risk of getting pneumonia and diarrhoea and at a lower risk of getting malaria.

Progress towards achieving child survival goals in Kenya after devolution: Geospatial analysis with scenario-based projections, 2015-2025

Subnational projections of under-5 mortality (U5M) have increasingly become an essential planning tool to support Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) agenda and strategies for improving child survival. To support child health policy, planning, and tracking child development goals in Kenya, we projected U5M at units of health decision making. County-specific annual U5M were estimated using a multivariable Bayesian space-time hierarchical model based on intervention coverage from four alternate intervention scale-up scenarios assuming 1) the highest subnational intervention coverage in 2014, 2) projected coverage based on the fastest county-specific rate of change observed in the period between 2003-2014 for each intervention, 3) the projected national coverage based on 2003-2014 trends and 4) the country-specific targets of intervention coverage relative to business as usual (BAU) scenario. We compared the percentage change in U5M based on the four scale-up scenarios relative to BAU and examined the likelihood of reaching SDG 3.2 target of at least 25 deaths/1,000 livebirths by 2022 and 2025. Projections based on 10 factors assuming BAU, showed marginal reductions in U5M across counties with all the counties except Mandera county not achieving the SDG 3.2 target by 2025. Further, substantial reductions in U5M would be achieved based on the various intervention scale-up scenarios, with 63.8% (30), 74.5% (35), 46.8% (22) and 61.7% (29) counties achieving SDG target for scenarios 1,2,3 and 4 respectively by 2025. Scenario 2 yielded the highest reductions of U5M with individual scale-up of access to improved water, recommended treatment of fever and accelerated HIV prevalence reduction showing considerable impact on U5M reduction (≥ 20%) relative to BAU. Our results indicate that sustaining an ambitious intervention scale-up strategy matching the fastest rate observed between 2003-2014 would substantially reduce U5M in Kenya. However, despite this ambitious scale-up scenario, 25% (12 of 47) of the Kenya's counties would still not achieve SDG 3.2 target by 2025.

Evaluation of community health worker's performance at home-based newborn assessment supported by mHealth in rural Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

In low to middle-income countries where home births are common and neonatal postnatal care is limited, community health worker (CHW) home visits can extend the capability of health systems to reach vulnerable newborns in the postnatal period. CHW assessment of newborn danger signs supported by mHealth have the potential to improve the quality of danger sign assessments and reduce CHW training requirements. We aim to estimate the validity (sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value) of CHW assessment of newborn infants aided by mHealth compared to physician assessment.

METHODS

In this prospective study, ten CHWs received five days of theoretical and hands-on training on the physical assessment of newborns including ten danger signs. CHWs assessed 273 newborn infants for danger signs within 48 h of birth and then consecutively for three days. A physician repeated 20% (n = 148) of the assessments conducted by CHWs. Both CHWs and the physician evaluated newborns for ten danger signs and decided on referral. We used the physician's danger sign identification and referral decision as the gold standard to validate CHWs' identification of danger signs and referral decisions.

RESULTS

The referrals made by the CHWs had high sensitivity (93.3%), specificity (96.2%), and almost perfect agreement (K = 0.80) with the referrals made by the physician. CHW identification of all the danger signs except hypothermia showed moderate to high sensitivity (66.7-100%) compared to physician assessments. All the danger signs assessments except hypothermia showed moderate to high positive predictive value (PPV) (50-100%) and excellent negative predictive value (NPV) (99-100%). Specificity was high (99-100%) for all ten danger signs.

CONCLUSION

CHW's identification of neonatal danger signs aided by mHealth showed moderate to high validity in comparison to physician assessments. mHealth platforms may reduce CHW training requirements and while maintaining quality CHW physical assessment performance extending the ability of health systems to provide neonatal postnatal care in low-resource communities.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

clinicaltrials.gov NCT03933423 , January 05, 2019.

Impact of mass distribution of insecticide-treated nets in Mozambique, 2012 to 2025: Estimates of child lives saved using the Lives Saved Tool

Malaria was the leading cause of post-neonatal deaths in Mozambique in 2017. The use of insecticide treated nets (ITNs) is recognized as one of the most effective ways to reduce malaria mortality in children. No previous analyses have estimated changes in mortality attributable to the scale-up of ITNs, accounting for provincial differences in mortality rates and coverage of health interventions. Based upon annual provincial ownership coverage of ITNs, the Lives Saved Tool (LiST), a multi-cause mathematical model, estimated under-5 lives saved attributable to increased household ITN coverage in 10 provinces of Mozambique between 2012 and 2018, and projected lives saved from 2019 to 2025 if 2018 coverage levels are sustained. An estimated 14,040 under-5 child deaths were averted between 2012 and 2018. If 2018 coverage levels are maintained until 2025, an additional 33,277 child deaths could be avoided. If coverage reaches at least 85% in all ten provinces by 2022, then a projected 36,063 child lives can be saved. From 2012 to 2018, the estimated number of lives saved was highest in Zambezia and Tete provinces. Increases in ITN coverage can save a substantial number of child lives in Mozambique. Without continued investment, thousands of avoidable child deaths will occur.

Unfolding and characterizing the barriers and facilitators of scaling-up evidence-based interventions from the stakeholders' perspective: a concept mapping approach

INTRODUCTION AND AIMS

Much attention has been paid to scaling-up evidence-based interventions (EBIs) in previous implementation science studies. However, there is limited research on how stakeholders perceive factors of the scaling-up of EBIs. This study aimed to identify the barriers and facilitators of scaling-up the nurse-led evidence-based practice of post-stroke dysphagia identification and management (EBP-PSDIM) from the stakeholders' perspective, and to assess their importance and feasibility.

METHODS

This study was conducted using concept mapping. Through purposive sampling, 18 stakeholders were recruited for brainstorming in which they responded to the focus prompt. Here, statements regarding perceived barriers and facilitators to EBI scaling-up were elicited and then sorted by similarity before being rated based on the importance and feasibility. Cluster analysis, multidimensional scaling, and descriptive statistics were utilized to analyze the data.

RESULTS

Ultimately, 61 statements perceived to influence the scaling-up were grouped into four primary clusters, that is, community-related factors, resource team-related factors, evidence-based practice program-related factors, and scaling-up strategy-related factors. The 'perceived needs of the community' was rated as the most important and feasible factor to address, whereas 'costs/resource mobilization' was rated as the least important and feasible one.

CONCLUSION

From the stakeholders' perspective, factors involved in the EBP-PSDIM program scaling-up were initially validated as being multidimensional and conceptually distinct; The importance and feasibility ratings of the barriers and facilitators could be used to help decision-makers to prioritize the most appropriate factors to be considered when developing implementation strategies.

Incidence and predictors of under-five mortality in East Africa using multilevel Weibull regression modeling

BACKGROUND

In 2017, an estimated 5.3 million under-five children died annually in Sub-Saharan African countries, more than half of those deaths occurred in East Africa. Though East African countries share the huge burden of global under-five mortality, there is limited evidence on the incidence and predictors of under-five mortality. Therefore, this study investigated the incidence and predictors of under-five mortality in East Africa.

METHODS

A community-based cross-sectional study was done based on the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data of 12 East African countries conducted from 2008 to 2019. A total weighted sample of 138,803 live births within 5 years preceding the survey were included for analysis. The Kaplan-Meier curve and Log-rank test were done to assess the children's survival experience across variable categories. The Global Schoenfeld residual test was employed for checking Proportional Hazard (PH) assumptions and it was violated (p-value< 0.05). Considering the hierarchical nature of DHS data, multilevel parametric survival models were fitted. Model comparison was made by AIC, deviance, and shape of the hazard function. Variables with a p-value of less than 0.2 in the bi-variable analysis were considered for the multivariable analysis. In the multilevel Weibull regression analysis, the Adjusted Hazard Ratio (AHR) with 95% Confidence Interval (CI) was reported to declare the significant predictors of under-five mortality.

RESULTS

Under-five mortality rate in East Africa was 51.318 (95% CI: 51.311, 51.323) per 1000 live births. Babies born to mothers attained secondary education and above (AHR = 0.83, 95% CI: 0.75, 0.91), being 2nd - 4th birth order (AHR = 0.62, 95% CI: 0.56, 0.67), ≥ 5th birth order (AHR = 0.68, 95% CI: 0.61, 0.76), health facility delivery (AHR = 0.87, 95% CI: 0.82, 0.93), 1-3 ANC visit (AHR = 0.61, 95% CI: 0.54, 0.68), births interval of 24-48 months (AHR = 0.53, 95% CI: 0.50, 0.57), wanted pregnancy (AHR = 0.72, 95% CI: 0.68, 0.76), middle wealth status (AHR = 0.90, 95% CI: 0.83, 0.97), and richest wealth status (AHR = 0.81, 95% CI:0.73, 0.90) were significantly associated with lower hazards of under-five mortality. Whereas, advanced maternal age (≥35 years) (AHR = 1.13, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.24),, babies born to household who did not have media exposure (AHR = 1.13, 95% CI: 1.07, 1.20), twin births (AHR = 3.81, 95% CI: 3.52, 4.12), being male child (AHR = 1.27, 95%CI: 1.21, 1.33), small birth size at birth (AHR = 1.73, 95% CI: 1.63, 1.84), and large size at birth (AHR = 1.11, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.11) were significantly associated with higher hazards of under-five mortality.

CONCLUSION

Under-five mortality is a major public health concern in East African countries. Health facility delivery, ANC visit, higher wealth status, adequate birth spacing, wanted pregnancy, and maternal education were significantly correlated with a lower risk of under-5 mortality. Whereas, higher birth order, small or large size at birth, male birth, twin birth, advanced maternal age and mothers who didn't have media exposure were significantly correlated with a higher risk of under-five mortality. This study highlights that public health programs should enhance health facility delivery, ANC visit, media exposure, maternal education, and adequate birth spacing to decrease the incidence of under-five mortality in East Africa.

Appropriateness of Care for Common Childhood Infections at Low-Level Private Health Facilities in a Rural District in Western Uganda

In Uganda, >50% of sick children receive treatment from primary level-private health facilities (HF). We assessed the appropriateness of care for common infections in under-five-year-old children and explored perspectives of healthcare workers (HCW) and policymakers on the quality of healthcare at low-level private health facilities (LLPHF) in western Uganda. This was a mixed-methods parallel convergent study. Employing multistage consecutive sampling, we selected 110 HF and observed HCW conduct 777 consultations of children with pneumonia, malaria, diarrhea or neonatal infections. We purposively selected 30 HCW and 8 policymakers for in-depth interviews. Care was considered appropriate if assessment, diagnosis, and treatment were correct. We used univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses for quantitative data and deductive thematic analysis for qualitative data. The proportion of appropriate care was 11% for pneumonia, 14% for malaria, 8% for diarrhea, and 0% for neonatal infections. Children with danger signs were more likely to receive appropriate care. Children with diarrhea or ability to feed orally were likely to receive inappropriate care. Qualitative data confirmed care given as often inappropriate, due to failure to follow guidelines. Overall, sick children with common infections were inappropriately managed at LLPHF. Technical support and provision of clinical guidelines should be increased to LLPHF.

The impact of child health interventions and risk factors on child survival in Kenya, 1993-2014: a Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis with counterfactual scenarios

BACKGROUND

During the millennium development goals period, reduction in under-five mortality (U5M) and increases in child health intervention coverage were characterised by sub-national disparities and inequities across Kenya. The contribution of changing risk factors and intervention coverage on the sub-national changes in U5M remains poorly defined.

METHODS

Sub-national county-level data on U5M and 43 factors known to be associated with U5M spanning 1993 and 2014 were assembled. Using a Bayesian ecological mixed-effects regression model, the relationships between U5M and significant intervention and infection risk ecological factors were quantified across 47 sub-national counties. The coefficients generated were used within a counterfactual framework to estimate U5M and under-five deaths averted (U5-DA) for every county and year (1993-2014) associated with changes in the coverage of interventions and disease infection prevalence relative to 1993.

RESULTS

Nationally, the stagnation and increase in U5M in the 1990s were associated with rising human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence and reduced maternal autonomy while improvements after 2006 were associated with a decline in the prevalence of HIV and malaria, increase in access to better sanitation, fever treatment-seeking rates and maternal autonomy. Reduced stunting and increased coverage of early breastfeeding and institutional deliveries were associated with a smaller number of U5-DA compared to other factors while a reduction in high parity and fully immunised children were associated with under-five lives lost. Most of the U5-DA occurred after 2006 and varied spatially across counties. The highest number of U5-DA was recorded in western and coastal Kenya while northern Kenya recorded a lower number of U5-DA than western. Central Kenya had the lowest U5-DA. The deaths averted across the different regions were associated with a unique set of factors.

CONCLUSION

Contributions of interventions and risk factors to changing U5M vary sub-nationally. This has important implications for targeting future interventions within decentralised health systems such as those operated in Kenya. Targeting specific factors where U5M has been high and intervention coverage poor would lead to the highest likelihood of sub-national attainment of sustainable development goal (SDG) 3.2 on U5M in Kenya.

One-arm safety intervention study on community case management of chest indrawing pneumonia in children in Nigeria - a study protocol

Current recommendations within integrated community case management (iCCM) programmes advise community health workers (CHWs) to refer cases of chest indrawing pneumonia to health facilities for treatment, but many children die due to delays or non-compliance with referral advice. Recent revision of World Health Organization (WHO) pneumonia guidelines and integrated management of childhood illness chart booklet recommend oral amoxicillin for treatment of lower chest indrawing (LCI) pneumonia on an outpatient basis. However, these guidelines did not recommend its use by CHWs as part of iCCM, due to insufficient evidence regarding safety. We present a protocol for a one-arm safety intervention study aimed at increasing access to treatment of pneumonia by training CHWs, locally referred to as Community Oriented Resource Persons (CORPs) in Nigeria. The primary objective was to assess if CORPs could safely and appropriately manage LCI pneumonia in 2-59 month old children, and refer children with danger signs. The primary outcomes were the proportion of children 2-59 months with LCI pneumonia who were managed appropriately by CORPs and the clinical treatment failure within 6 days of LCI pneumonia. Secondary outcomes included proportion of children with LCI followed up by CORPs on day 3; caregiver adherence to treatment for chest indrawing, acceptability and satisfaction of both CORP and caregivers on the mode of treatment, including caregiver adherence to treatment; and clinical relapse of pneumonia between day 7 to 14 among children whose signs of pneumonia disappeared by day 6. Approximately 308 children 2-59 months of age with LCI pneumonia would be needed for this safety intervention study.

Using an ethics of care lens to understand the place of community health workers in Rwanda's maternal healthcare system

This study explores the informal care roles involved in the delivery of maternal health services by Rwanda's elected maternal community health workers. We conducted semi-structured interviews with 20 such workers in five Rwandan districts to explore their understandings of why they were elected for this voluntary position; what motivates them to fulfill their responsibilities; and their experiences of providing maternal health services in a resource-limited context. Thematically exploring the findings using an ethics of care lens, we highlight how responsibility, vulnerability and mutuality inform the place of these workers' roles in the maternal care system and their villages. We conclude by acknowledging the significant responsibilities assigned by these works and that the burden that may result from taking on such care may negatively affect the sustainability of this initiative.

Trends in prevalence and determinants of stunting in Tanzania: an analysis of Tanzania demographic health surveys (1991-2016)

Background

Tanzania has made a significant improvement in wasting and underweight indicators. However, stunting has remained persistently higher and varying between regions. We analyzed Tanzania Demographic and Health Survey (TDHS) datasets to examine (i) the trend of stunting over the period of 25 years in Tanzania and (ii) the remaining challenges and factors associated with stunting in the country.

Methods

This secondary data analysis included six TDHS datasets with data of 37,409 under-five children spreading in 1991–1992(n = 6587), 1996(n = 5437), 1999(n = 2556), 2004–05(n = 7231), 2009–10(n = 6597), and 2015–16(n = 9001) conducted in all regions of Tanzania. Variables specific to children and their caregivers were analyzed using SPSS version 22. The variables considered include child anthropometric variables, caregiver’s demographic characteristics and household’s socio-economic factors. We used frequencies and percentages to compare stunting prevalence across the six surveys and chi-square test and three-level hierarchical logistic regression to examine the factors associated with stunting also applying sample weighting as advised by TDHS.

Results

The prevalence of stunting has declined by 30% over the period of 25 years in Tanzania. However, one in three children aged below five years remains stunted with overweight and obesity more than doubled (from 11 to 25%) in the same period among women of reproductive age. The factors associated with stunting included children living in female-headed households (AOR = 1.16, P = 0.014), aged 24–35 months (AOR = 1.75, P = 0.019), born with low birth weight (AOR = 2.14, P < 0.001) and with inconsistent or without breastfeeding (AOR = 3.46, P < 0.001 and AOR = 4.29, P = 0.001) respectively. The risk of stunting among children living in urban area (AOR = 0.56, P < 0.001), with higher caregiver’s education (AOR = 0.56, P = 0.018), obese mother (AOR = 0.63, P < 0.001), households with highest wealth index (AOR = 0.42, P < 0.001), and among girls (AOR = 0.77, P < 0.001).

Conclusions

The burden of stunting in Tanzania has declined by 30% in the past 25 years, but still affecting one in every three children. Efforts are needed to increase the pace of stunting decline especially among boys, children in rural areas, from poor, uneducated, and female-headed households, and through improving infant and young feeding practices. Effective and tailored nutrition-sensitive and specific interventions using multisectoral approaches should be considered to address these important determinants.