Prognostic value of GRACE score for in-hospital and 6 months outcomes after non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome

Predictive Value of the Modified GRACE Scoring System for All-Cause Mortality in Patients with Acute Myocardial Infarction

Background

To establish a modified Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) scoring system with an improved predictive performance compared with the traditional GRACE scoring system.

Methods

We identified 5512 patients who were hospitalized with a definite diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2020, at the Heart Center of the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University through the hospital's electronic medical record system. A total of 4561 patients were enrolled after the inclusion and exclusion criteria were applied. The mean follow-up was 51.8 ± 23.4 months. The patients were divided into dead and alive groups by endpoint events. The differences between the two groups were compared using the two-sample t test and chi-square test. Adjusted traditional risk factors as well as LogBNP (B-type natriuretic peptide precursor, BNP) and the modified GRACE scoring system were included in a multifactorial COX regression model. The predictive performance of the traditional and modified GRACE scoring systems was compared by (Receiver Operating Characteristic) ROC curves.

Results

Significant differences in age, heart rate, creatinine, uric acid, LogBNP, traditional GRACE score, and modified GRACE score were found between the dead and alive groups by the two-sample t test. Comparison of the two groups by the chi-square test revealed that the dead group had a higher incidence of males; higher cardiac function class; a previous history of hypertension, diabetes, coronary artery disease (CAD), or cerebrovascular disease; a history of smoking; the need for intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP) support; and more patients taking aspirin, clopidogrel, ticagrelor, and β -blockers. The results were analyzed by a multifactorial COX regression model, and after adjusting for confounders, age, cardiac function class, history of CAD, use of aspirin and β -blockers, and the modified GRACE scoring system were found to be associated with all-cause mortality (ACM) in patients with AMI. The ROC curve was used to compare the predictive performance of the conventional GRACE scoring system with that of the modified GRACE scoring system, and it was found that the modified GRACE scoring system (Area Under Curve (AUC) = 0.809, p < 0.001, 95% (Confidence Interval) CI (0.789-0.829)) was significantly better than the traditional GRACE scoring system (AUC = 0.786, p < 0.001, 95% CI (0.764-0.808)), the comparison between the two scores was statistically significant (p < 0.001). The change in the C statistic after 10-fold crossover internal validation of the modified GRACE score was not significant, and the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) between the old and new models was calculated with IDI = 0.019 > 0, suggesting that the modified GRACE score has a positive improvement on the traditional GRACE score.

Conclusions

The modified GRACE scoring system, established by combining B-type natriuretic peptide precursor (BNP) and the traditional GRACE scoring system, was independently associated with ACM in patients with AMI, with a larger AUC and higher predictive value than the traditional GRACE scoring system.

Clinical Trial Registration

NCT02737956.

External validation of the GRACE risk score in patients with myocardial infarction in Hungary

Background

Literature confirms that the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score provides a better risk evaluation than clinical judgment in patients with acute myocardial infarction. We aimed to externally validate the GRACE risk score in unselected patients with myocardial infarction in Hungary.

Methods

Data from the comprehensive Hungarian Myocardial Infarction Registry (HUMIR), a national registry that collects data on consecutive acute myocardial infarction (AMI) patients, were used. Hospitals registered 102,939 infarction events in the HUMIR between January 1, 2014, and December 31, 2020. The data required to calculate GRACE risk score were available for 75,199 events. We studied the 6-months, 1-year, and 3-year outcomes. We calculated widely used metrics to characterise calibration (calibration curve, calibration intercept and slope, Eavg, Emax, and E90) and discrimination (c-score, equivalent to AUC, and Somer's D_xy).

Results

The risk of low-risk patients was underestimated, and the risk of high-risk patients was overestimated. However, the deviation was small, especially for the three-year survival (E90 was 0.15, 0.22, and 0.08). Discrimination was good, with an AUC of approximately 0.8, and was very similar in all the periods.

Conclusions

These data confirmed the usefulness of GRACE risk score in selecting high-risk patients with myocardial infarction in the Hungarian population.

Role of Single Nucleotide Polymorphism L55M in the Paraoxonase 1 Gene as a Risk and Prognostic Factor in Acute Coronary Syndrome

The aim of the current study is to explore the possible role of L55M, (rs 854560, 163T > A) SNP as a predisposing factor for acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and to assess its potency as a prognostic biomarker for short (1 year) survival and for median (5 years) and 9-year long patients’ outcome. Methods: The current work is a prospective case-control study with 77 patients with acute coronary syndrome (53 with ST-elevation myocardial infarction, STEMI, 14 with non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction, NSTEMI and 10 with unstable angina, UA) and 122 control individuals. Patients were followed-up for 9 years. The genotyping for PON1 L55M SNP was carried on by PCR-RFLP method. Results: The results of the genotyping for PON1 L55M SNP showed a statistically significant difference (p = 0.023) between the controls and the whole group of patients with acute coronary syndrome, as the individuals with genotype with at least one variant M allele had about 2.5-fold higher risk for developing ACS than those which are homozygous of the wild-type L allele (LL genotype). In patients with variant M allele genotypes (LM + MM) which suffer from non-ST-segment elevation ACS (NSTEACS, i.e., UA or NSTEMI), the serum levels of total cholesterol (TC) and triacylglycerols (TAG) are significantly higher than in NSTEACS patients with LL genotype (p = 0.022 for TC and p = 0.015 for TAG). There was no significant difference in the survival rate at the 1st, 5th and 9th year of follow-up between ACS patients with different genotypes, although it is worth to note that in the subgroup of NSTEACS, all patients (n = 13) with variant M allele genotypes (LM + MM) were alive at the end of the first year, while 2 of the patients with LL genotype (18.2%) were dead. Conclusions: The results of our current study suggest that the variant M allele and the M allele genotypes (LM + MM) of the PON1 L55M polymorphism are risk factors for acute coronary syndrome, especially for patients with STEMI, but do not support the possible effect of this polymorphism on the clinical progression and outcome of the patients with ACS either in short or long follow-up periods.

The Diagnostic Value of Combined Detection of Serum Lp-PLA2 and Hcy and Color Doppler in Elderly Patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome and Effect on Endothelial Function

Objective

To evaluate the application value of serum lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (Lp-PLA2) and homocysteine (Hcy) combined with color Doppler detection in elderly patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and the influence on their endothelial function.

Methods

From February 2019 to October 2020, 100 elderly patients with suspected ACS treated in our hospital were recruited and assigned (1 : 1) to a control group or an experimental group. The control group received color Doppler detection, and the experimental group received the combined detection of serum Lp-PLA2 and Hcy and color Doppler. Positive results were determined by the combined detection of the levels of LP-PLA2 and Hcy and color Doppler. The two groups were compared in terms of specificity, susceptibility, positive detection rate, negative detection rate, test accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), the expression levels of interleukin-2 (IL-2), interleukin-12 (IL-12), interleukin-13 (IL-13), and the vascular endothelial function. The patients with ACS were divided into three subgroups according to the Gensini score three-quartile interval, and their Lp-PLA2 levels were calculated for analysis.

Results

The test specificity, susceptibility, positive detection rate, negative detection rate, test accuracy, and AUC in the experimental group were much better than the those in the control group (all P < 0.05), and there were no significant differences in the expression levels of IL-2, IL-12, IL-13, and vascular endothelial function between the two groups (P > 0.05). The three subgroups showed similar levels of fasting blood glucose, total cholesterol, triglyceride, high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, apolipoprotein A-I, glutamic-pyruvic transaminase, lutamic-oxaloacetic transaminase, homocysteine, and amino-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (all P > 0.05). The severe condition group had the highest Lp-PLA2 level, followed by the moderate group, and then the mild group (P < 0.05). Moreover, the levels of LP-PLA2, aspartate transaminase (AST), and N-terminal pro hormone B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) were all influencing factors for the coronary Gensini score (all P < 0.05).

Conclusion

The combined detection of serum Lp-PLA2, Hcy, and color Doppler significantly improves the diagnostic accuracy, specificity, and susceptibility in the elderly with ACS, with little impact on their vascular endothelial function.

Systolic Blood Pressure, Blood Glucose, and Mortality of Patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome

BACKGROUND: Acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is a cardiovascular disease causing a high number of patient mortality in the world as well as Indonesia. Systolic blood pressure (SBP) and blood glucose (BG) are suspected to be important indicators for determining the risk stratification and prognostic information of ACS. AIM: This study aims to evaluate blood pressure and BG alongside the mortality of patients with ACS. METHODS: This was a quantitative study conducted using a retrospective survey method and the secondary data used were obtained from the medical records in Dr. Iskak Hospital between January and December 2020. The study sample consists of 110 respondents selected with a proportionate stratified random sampling. Meanwhile, the independent variables were SBP (X1) and BG (X2) while the dependent variable was mortality in ACS patients (Y). RESULTS: The multivariate analyses results with logistic regression show that SBP is associated with mortality with p = 0.008 and an odds ratio of 0.673. Furthermore, the BG was slightly higher in the multivariate model which has an odds ratio of 3.052 and was associated with mortality having p = 0.000. CONCLUSION: Based on the result, a low SBP and high BG lead to ACS patient mortality, consequently, serious attention is needed on the SBP and blood sugar.