Performance of a population-based cardiac risk stratification tool in Asian patients with chest pain

Non-traumatic chest pain in patients presenting to an urban emergency Department in sub Saharan Africa: a prospective cohort study in Tanzania

Background

Non-traumatic chest pain (NTCP) is a common reason for emergency department (ED) attendance in high-income countries, with the primary concern focused on life threatening cardiovascular diseases. There is general lack of data on aetiologies, diagnosis and management of NTPC in Sub Sahara African (SSA) countries. We aimed to describe evaluation, diagnosis and outcomes of adult patients presenting with NTCP to an urban ED in Tanzania.

Method

This was a prospective observational cohort study of consecutive adult (≥18 years) patients presenting with non-traumatic chest pain to the Emergency Medicine Department (EMD) of Muhimbili National Hospital (MNH) in Dar es salaam from September 2017 to April 2018. Structured case report form was used to collected demographics, clinical presentation, investigations, diagnosis, and EMD disposition and in hospital mortality. We determined frequency of NTCP among our patients, aetiologies, 24-h and 7-day in-hospital mortality, and predictors for mortality.

Results

We screened 29,495 adults attending EMD-MNH during the study and 389 (1.3%) presented with NTCP of these, 349 (90%) were enrolled. The median age was 45 (IQR 29–60) years and 177 (50.7%) were female. Overall, 69.1% patients received electrocardiography (ECG) in the EMD and 34.1% had a troponin test. Heart failure and pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) were the leading hospital diagnoses (12.6% each), followed by chronic kidney disease (10%) and acute coronary syndrome (ACS) (9.6%). Total of 167 (48%) patients were admitted, and the 24-h and 7-day in-hospital mortality were 5 (3%) and 16 (9.6%) respectively. Univariate risk factors for mortality were a Glasgow Coma Scale of < 15 [RR = 3.4 (95%CI 3.2–23)], Acute Coronary Syndrome [RR = 5.7 (95% CI 1.7–11.8) and Troponin > 0.04 ng/ml [RR 2.9 (95%CI 1.2–7.3)]. Features distinguishing cardiovascular from other causes were: bradycardia [RR = 2.6 (95%CI 2.1–3.2)], heart beat awareness [RR = 2.3 (95%CI 1.7–3.2)] and history of diabetic mellitus [RR = 2.2 (95% CI 1.6–3.0)].

Conclusion

In this ED of SSA country, heart failure and pulmonary tuberculosis were the leading causes of NCTP, and ACS was present in 9.6%. NTCP in this setting carries high mortality, and ACS was the leading risk factor for death. ED providers in SSA must increasingly consider cardiovascular causes of NTCP.

Prognostic utility of the acute cardiac ischemia time-insensitive predictive instrument (ACI-TIPI)

Background

We sought to evaluate the test characteristics of the acute cardiac ischemia time-insensitive predictive instrument (ACI-TIPI) in relation to 30-day major adverse cardiac events (MACE) among patients who presented to the Emergency Department with symptoms suggestive of an acute coronary syndrome. We then examined the test characteristics of various dichotomous ACI-TIPI cut points.

Methods

We prospectively recruited a cohort of Emergency Department (ED) patients with acute chest pain at two urban university hospitals between June and September 2006. Upon enrollment, baseline demographics and cardiac risk factors were collected. An electrocardiogram (ECG) was performed and analyzed with the built-in ACI-TIPI multiple regression model software. An ACI-TIPI probability score was recorded for each patient. Diagnostic test characteristics of ACI-TIPI for MACE (non-ST elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI), percutaneous coronary intervention, coronary artery bypass grafting, and all-cause mortality) within 30 days were determined.

Results

Of 144 patients enrolled (mean age 59.1 ± 14.1 years, 59% men), 19 (13%) patients suffered MACE within 30 days. Receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) for ACI-TIPI yielded a c-statistic of 0.69 (95% CI 0.59-0.80, p < 0.01). An ACI-TIPI score of ≥ 20 had 100% sensitivity (95% CI 82-100), 100% negative predictive value (95% CI 86-100), and 21% specificity (14-31%).

Conclusions

These preliminary results suggest that, while ACI-TIPI has limited discriminatory value for MACE overall, a score of < 20 may have 30-day prognostic utility to allow for safe outpatient management in patients with acute chest pain.

A 2-h diagnostic protocol to assess patients with chest pain symptoms in the Asia-Pacific region (ASPECT): a prospective observational validation study

BACKGROUND

Patients with chest pain contribute substantially to emergency department attendances, lengthy hospital stay, and inpatient admissions. A reliable, reproducible, and fast process to identify patients presenting with chest pain who have a low short-term risk of a major adverse cardiac event is needed to facilitate early discharge. We aimed to prospectively validate the safety of a predefined 2-h accelerated diagnostic protocol (ADP) to assess patients presenting to the emergency department with chest pain symptoms suggestive of acute coronary syndrome.

METHODS

This observational study was undertaken in 14 emergency departments in nine countries in the Asia-Pacific region, in patients aged 18 years and older with at least 5 min of chest pain. The ADP included use of a structured pre-test probability scoring method (Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction [TIMI] score), electrocardiograph, and point-of-care biomarker panel of troponin, creatine kinase MB, and myoglobin. The primary endpoint was major adverse cardiac events within 30 days after initial presentation (including initial hospital attendance). This trial is registered with the Australia-New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry, number ACTRN12609000283279.

FINDINGS

3582 consecutive patients were recruited and completed 30-day follow-up. 421 (11.8%) patients had a major adverse cardiac event. The ADP classified 352 (9.8%) patients as low risk and potentially suitable for early discharge. A major adverse cardiac event occurred in three (0.9%) of these patients, giving the ADP a sensitivity of 99.3% (95% CI 97.9-99.8), a negative predictive value of 99.1% (97.3-99.8), and a specificity of 11.0% (10.0-12.2).

INTERPRETATION

This novel ADP identifies patients at very low risk of a short-term major adverse cardiac event who might be suitable for early discharge. Such an approach could be used to decrease the overall observation periods and admissions for chest pain. The components needed for the implementation of this strategy are widely available. The ADP has the potential to affect health-service delivery worldwide.

FUNDING

Alere Medical (all countries), Queensland Emergency Medicine Research Foundation and National Health and Medical Research Council (Australia), Christchurch Cardio-Endocrine Research Group (New Zealand), Medquest Jaya Global (Indonesia), Science International (Hong Kong), Bio Laboratories Pte (Singapore), National Heart Foundation of New Zealand, and Progressive Group (Taiwan).

Outcomes associated with small changes in normal-range cardiac markers

INTRODUCTION

Troponin concentrations rising above an institutional cutpoint are used to define acute myocardial necrosis, yet it is uncertain what outcomes are associated with fluctuations in troponin that do not exceed this level. We evaluate the association between troponin fluctuations below an institutional upper limit of normal and acute coronary syndrome (ACS).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This was a post hoc analysis of the Internet tracking registry of ACS (i*trACS), which describes patients presenting to emergency departments (EDs) with suspected ACS across the spectrum of risk. Patients were included in this registry if they were at least 18 years old and had suspected ACS at the time of their ED visit. Inclusions in this analysis required that patients had at least 1 cardiac marker (creatine kinase-MB [CK-MB], troponin T, or troponin I) drawn twice within 6 hours of presentation, with both measures being below the institution's upper limit of normal. A marker change was defined as either an increase or decrease that exceeded 15% of the institutional upper limit of normal. Acute coronary syndrome was defined as a positive stress test, documented myocardial infarction, coronary revascularization, or death within 30 days of their ED admission.

RESULTS

Of 17,713 patient visits, 2162 met inclusion and exclusion criteria. There were 1872 patient visits with 2 troponin results and 1312 with 2 CK-MB results. Patient visits with increasing troponin had increased odds of ACS compared with those with stable troponin levels (odds ratio, 3.6; 95% confidence interval, 1.4-9.2). Changing CK-MB and decreasing troponin were not associated with increased odds of ACS.

CONCLUSIONS

Small increases in troponin concentration below the upper limit of normal are associated with increased odds of ACS.

A study to derive a clinical decision rule for triage of emergency department patients with chest pain: design and methodology

BACKGROUND

Chest pain is the second most common chief complaint in North American emergency departments. Data from the U.S. suggest that 2.1% of patients with acute myocardial infarction and 2.3% of patients with unstable angina are misdiagnosed, with slightly higher rates reported in a recent Canadian study (4.6% and 6.4%, respectively). Information obtained from the history, 12-lead ECG, and a single set of cardiac enzymes is unable to identify patients who are safe for early discharge with sufficient sensitivity. The 2007 ACC/AHA guidelines for UA/NSTEMI do not identify patients at low risk for adverse cardiac events who can be safely discharged without provocative testing. As a result large numbers of low risk patients are triaged to chest pain observation units and undergo provocative testing, at significant cost to the healthcare system. Clinical decision rules use clinical findings (history, physical exam, test results) to suggest a diagnostic or therapeutic course of action. Currently no methodologically robust clinical decision rule identifies patients safe for early discharge.

METHODS/DESIGN

The goal of this study is to derive a clinical decision rule which will allow emergency physicians to accurately identify patients with chest pain who are safe for early discharge. The study will utilize a prospective cohort design. Standardized clinical variables will be collected on all patients at least 25 years of age complaining of chest pain prior to provocative testing. Variables strongly associated with the composite outcome acute myocardial infarction, revascularization, or death will be further analyzed with multivariable analysis to derive the clinical rule. Specific aims are to: i) apply standardized clinical assessments to patients with chest pain, incorporating results of early cardiac testing; ii) determine the inter-observer reliability of the clinical information; iii) determine the statistical association between the clinical findings and the composite outcome; and iv) use multivariable analysis to derive a highly sensitive clinical decision rule to guide triage decisions.

DISCUSSION

The study will derive a highly sensitive clinical decision rule to identify low risk patients safe for early discharge. This will improve patient care, lower healthcare costs, and enhance flow in our busy and overcrowded emergency departments.

The elder patient with suspected acute coronary syndromes in the emergency department

OBJECTIVES

To describe the evaluation and outcomes of elder patients with suspected acute coronary syndromes (ACS) presenting to the emergency department (ED).

METHODS

This was a post hoc analysis of the Internet Tracking Registry for Acute Coronary Syndromes (i*trACS) registry, which had 17,713 ED visits for suspected ACS. First visits from the United States with nonmissing patient demographics, 12-lead electrocardiogram results, and clinical history were included in the analysis. Those who used cocaine or amphetamines or left the ED against medical advice were excluded. Elder was defined as age 75 years or older. ACS was defined by 30-day revascularization, Diagnosis-related Group codes, or death within 30 days with positive cardiac biomarkers at index hospitalization. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the association between being elder and 1) 30-day all-cause mortality, 2) ACS, 3) diagnostic tests ordered, and 4) disposition. Multivariable logistic regression was also performed to determine which clinical variables were associated with ACS in elder and nonelder patients.

RESULTS

A total of 10,126 patients with suspected ACS presenting to the ED were analyzed. For patients presenting to the ED, being elder was independently associated with ACS and all-cause 30-day mortality, with adjusted odds ratios of 1.8 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.5 to 2.2) and 2.6 (95% CI = 1.6 to 4.3), respectively. Elder patients were more likely to be admitted to the hospital (adjusted odds ratio, 2.2; 95% CI = 1.8 to 2.6), but there were no differences in the rates of cardiac catheterization and noninvasive stress cardiac imaging. Different clinical variables were associated with ACS in elder and nonelder patients. Chest pain as chief complaint, typical chest pain, and previous history of coronary artery disease were significantly associated with ACS in nonelder patients but were not associated with ACS in elder patients. Male gender and left arm pain were associated with ACS in both elder and nonelder patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Elder patients who present to the ED with suspected ACS represent a population at high risk for ACS and 30-day mortality. Elders are more likely to be admitted to the hospital, but despite an increased risk for adverse events, they have similar odds of receiving a diagnostic test, such as stress cardiac imaging or cardiac catheterization, compared with nonelder patients. Different clinical variables are associated with ACS, and clinical prediction rules utilizing presenting symptoms should consider the effect modification of age.

The role of cardiac risk factor burden in diagnosing acute coronary syndromes in the emergency department setting

STUDY OBJECTIVE

We seek to determine whether cardiac risk factor burden (defined as the number of conventional cardiac risk factors present) is useful for the diagnosis of acute coronary syndromes in the emergency department (ED) setting.

METHODS

This was a post hoc analysis of the Internet Tracking Registry of Acute Coronary Syndromes (i*trACS) registry, which had 17,713 ED visits for suspected acute coronary syndromes. First visit for US patients who were not cocaine or amphetamine users, who did not leave against medical advice, and for whom ECG and demographic data were complete were included. Acute coronary syndrome was defined by 30-day revascularization, diagnostic-related group codes, or death within 30 days, with positive cardiac biomarkers at index hospitalization. Cardiac risk factors were diabetes, hypertension, smoking, hypercholesterolemia, and family history of coronary artery disease. Cardiac risk factor burden was defined as the number of risk factors present. Because multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that age modified the relationship between cardiac risk factor burden and acute coronary syndromes, a stratified analysis was performed for 3 age categories: younger than 40, 40 to 65, and older than 65 years. Positive likelihood ratios and negative likelihood ratios with their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated for each total risk factor cutoff.

RESULTS

Of 10,806 eligible patients, 871 (8.1%) had acute coronary syndromes. In patients younger than 40 years, having no risk factors had a negative likelihood ratio of 0.17 (95% CI 0.04 to 0.66), and having 4 or more risk factors had a positive likelihood ratio of 7.39 (95% CI 3.09 to 17.67). In patients between 40 and 65 years of age, having no risk factors had a negative likelihood ratio of 0.53 (95% CI 0.40 to 0.71), and having 4 or more risk factors had a positive likelihood ratio of 2.13 (95% CI 1.66 to 2.73). In patients older than 65 years, having no risk factors had a negative likelihood ratio of 0.96 (95% CI 0.74 to 1.23), and having 4 or more risk factors had a positive likelihood ratio of 1.09 (95% CI 0.64 to 1.62).

CONCLUSION

Cardiac risk factor burden has limited clinical value in diagnosing acute coronary syndromes in the ED setting, especially in patients older than 40 years.

The Internet Tracking Registry of Acute Coronary Syndromes (i*trACS): A Multicenter Registry of Patients With Suspicion of Acute Coronary Syndromes Reported Using the Standardized Reporting Guidelines for Emergency Department Chest Pain Studies

STUDY OBJECTIVE

Observational studies of well-described patient populations presenting to emergency departments (EDs) with suspicion of acute coronary syndrome are necessary to understand the relationships between patients' signs and symptoms, cardiac risk profile, test results, practice patterns, and outcomes. We describe the methods for data collection and the ED population enrolled in a multicenter registry of patients with chest pain.

METHODS

Patients older than 18 years, presenting to one of 8 EDs in the United States or 1 ED in Singapore, and with possible acute coronary syndrome were enrolled in the Internet Tracking Registry of Acute Coronary Syndromes between June 1999 and August 2001. Prospective data, including presenting signs and symptoms, ECG findings, and the ED physician's initial impression of risk, were systematically collected. Medical record review or daily follow-up was used to obtain cardiac biomarker results, invasive and noninvasive testing, treatments, procedures, and inhospital outcomes. Thirty-day outcomes were determined by telephone follow-up and medical record review.

RESULTS

The registry includes 15,608 patients, with 17,713 visits. Chest pain was the chief complaint in 71% of visits. The ECG was diagnostic of ischemia or infarction in 10.1% and positive cardiac biomarkers were observed in 10% of visits. Forty-three percent of patients were sent home directly from the ED. Of admitted patients, 5% died by 30 days, and 3% had documented coronary artery disease or had undergone percutaneous coronary intervention or coronary artery bypass grafting within 30 days. For patients discharged directly from the ED, 0.4% died or had a documented myocardial infarction within 30 days. Coronary artery bypass graft surgery, percutaneous coronary intervention, or a diagnosis of coronary artery disease was found in 0.5% of discharged patients.

CONCLUSION

A unique description of undifferentiated ED chest pain patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome is provided. The data set can be used to generate and explore hypotheses to improve understanding of the complex relationships between presentation, treatment, testing, intervention and outcomes.