Aberrant Effects of Treatment

Case Definition and Design Sensitivity

In a case-referent study, cases of disease are compared to non-cases with respect to their antecedent exposure to a treatment in an effort to determine whether exposure causes some cases of the disease. Because exposure is not randomly assigned in the population, as it would be if the population were a vast randomized trial, exposed and unexposed subjects may differ prior to exposure with respect to covariates that may or may not have been measured. After controlling for measured pre-exposure differences, for instance by matching, a sensitivity analysis asks about the magnitude of bias from unmeasured covariates that would need to be present to alter the conclusions of a study that presumed matching for observed covariates removes all bias. The definition of a case of disease affects sensitivity to unmeasured bias. We explore this issue using: (i) an asymptotic tool, the design sensitivity, (ii) a simulation for finite samples, and (iii) an example. Under favorable circumstances, a narrower case definition can yield an increase in the design sensitivity, and hence an increase in the power of a sensitivity analysis. Also, we discuss an adaptive method that seeks to discover the best case definition from the data at hand while controlling for multiple testing. An implementation in R is available as SensitivityCaseControl.

Matching for Several Sparse Nominal Variables in a Case-Control Study of Readmission Following Surgery

Matching for several nominal covariates with many levels has usually been thought to be difficult because these covariates combine to form an enormous number of interaction categories with few if any people in most such categories. Moreover, because nominal variables are not ordered, there is often no notion of a "close substitute" when an exact match is unavailable. In a case-control study of the risk factors for read-mission within 30 days of surgery in the Medicare population, we wished to match for 47 hospitals, 15 surgical procedures grouped or nested within 5 procedure groups, two genders, or 47 × 15 × 2 = 1410 categories. In addition, we wished to match as closely as possible for the continuous variable age (65-80 years). There were 1380 readmitted patients or cases. A fractional factorial experiment may balance main effects and low-order interactions without achieving balance for high-order interactions. In an analogous fashion, we balance certain main effects and low-order interactions among the covariates; moreover, we use as many exactly matched pairs as possible. This is done by creating a match that is exact for several variables, with a close match for age, and both a "near-exact match" and a "finely balanced match" for another nominal variable, in this case a 47 × 5 = 235 category variable representing the interaction of the 47 hospitals and the five surgical procedure groups. The method is easily implemented in R.