Making the most of clinical data: reviewing the role of pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic models of anti-malarial drugs

Prediction of improved antimalarial chemotherapy of artesunate-mefloquine in combination with mefloquine sensitive and resistant Plasmodium falciparum malaria

BACKGROUND

Declining in susceptibility of Plasmodium falciparum to mefloquine is reported in South-East Asia. A revisiting on mefloquine pharmacokinetics-pharmacodynamics (PK/PD) could assist in finding new appropriate dosage regimens in combination with artesunate as a three-day course treatment.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to investigate promising alternative artesunate-mefloquine combination regimens that are effective for the treatment of patients with mefloquine-sensitive and resistant P. falciparum malaria.

METHODS

Data collected during 2008-2009 from 124 patients with uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria were included in the analysis, 90 and 34 patients with sensitive and recrudescence response, respectively. All patients were treated with a three-day combination of artesunate-mefloquine. Population PK-PD models were developed. The developed models were validated with clinically observed data. Simulations of clinical efficacy of alternative mefloquine regimens were performed based on mefloquine sensitivity, patients' adherence and parasite biomass.

RESULTS

The developed PK/PD models well described with clinically observed data. For mefloquine-resistant P. falciparum, a three-day standard regimen of artesunate-mefloquine is suitable (>50% efficacy) only when the level of parasite sensitivity was < 1.5-fold of the cut-off level (IC50 < 36 nM). For mefloquine-sensitive parasite with IC50 < 23.19 nM (0.96-fold), all regimens provided satisfactory efficacy. In the isolates with IC50 of 24 nM, regimen-I is recommended. Curative treatment criteria for mefloquine and artesunate were C336h (>408 ng.mL-1) or Cmax/IC50 (>130.1 g.m/M), and Cmax/IC50 (>381.2 g.m/M), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Clinical use of a three-day standard artesunate-mefloquine is suitable only when the IC50 of P. falciparum isolates is lower than 36 nM. Otherwise, other ACT regimens should be replaced. For mefloquine-sensitive parasite, a dose reduction is recommended with the IC50 is lower than 23.19 nM.

Long-term effects of increased adoption of artemisinin combination therapies in Burkina Faso

Artemisinin combination therapies (ACTs) are the WHO-recommended first-line therapies for uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria. The emergence and spread of artemisinin-resistant genotypes is a major global public health concern due to the increased rate of treatment failures that result. This is particularly germane for WHO designated 'high burden to high impact' (HBHI) countries, such as Burkina Faso, where there is increased emphasis on improving guidance, strategy, and coordination of local malaria response in an effort to reduce the prevalence of P. falciparum malaria. To explore how the increased adoption of ACTs may affect the HBHI malaria setting of Burkina Faso, we added spatial structure to a validated individual-based stochastic model of P. falciparum transmission and evaluated the long-term effects of increased ACT use. We explored how de novo emergence of artemisinin-resistant genotypes, such as pfkelch13 580Y, may occur under scenarios in which private-market drugs are eliminated or multiple first-line therapies (MFT) are deployed. We found that elimination of private market drugs would result in lower treatment failures rates (between 11.98% and 12.90%) when compared to the status quo (13.11%). However, scenarios incorporating MFT with equal deployment of artemether-lumefantrine (AL) and dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DHA-PPQ) may accelerate near-term drug resistance (580Y frequency ranging between 0.62 to 0.84 in model year 2038) and treatment failure rates (26.69% to 34.00% in 2038), due to early failure and substantially reduced treatment efficacy resulting from piperaquine-resistant genotypes. A rebalanced MFT approach (90% AL, 10% DHA-PPQ) results in approximately equal long-term outcomes to using AL alone but may be difficult to implement in practice.

Low antileishmanial drug exposure in HIV-positive visceral leishmaniasis patients on antiretrovirals: an Ethiopian cohort study

Background

Despite high HIV co-infection prevalence in Ethiopian visceral leishmaniasis (VL) patients, the adequacy of antileishmanial drug exposure in this population and effect of HIV-VL co-morbidity on pharmacokinetics of antileishmanial and antiretroviral (ARV) drugs is still unknown.

Methods

HIV-VL co-infected patients received the recommended liposomal amphotericin B (LAmB) monotherapy (total dose 40 mg/kg over 24 days) or combination therapy of LAmB (total dose 30 mg/kg over 11 days) plus 28 days 100 mg/day miltefosine, with possibility to extend treatment for another cycle. Miltefosine, total amphotericin B and ARV concentrations were determined in dried blood spots or plasma using LC–MS/MS.

Results

Median (IQR) amphotericin B C_max on Day 1 was 24.6 μg/mL (17.0–34.9 μg/mL), which increased to 40.9 (25.4–53.1) and 33.2 (29.0–46.6) μg/mL on the last day of combination and monotherapy, respectively. Day 28 miltefosine concentration was 18.7 (15.4–22.5) μg/mL. Miltefosine exposure correlated with amphotericin B accumulation. ARV concentrations were generally stable during antileishmanial treatment, although efavirenz C_min was below the 1 μg/mL therapeutic target for many patients.

Conclusions

This study demonstrates that antileishmanial drug exposure was low in this cohort of HIV co-infected VL patients. Amphotericin B C_max was 2-fold lower than previously observed in non-VL patients. Miltefosine exposure in HIV-VL co-infected patients was 35% lower compared with adult VL patients in Eastern Africa, only partially explained by a 19% lower dose, possibly warranting a dose adjustment. Adequate drug exposure in these HIV-VL co-infected patients is especially important given the high proportion of relapses.

Growth Rate of Plasmodium falciparum: Analysis of Parasite Growth Data From Malaria Volunteer Infection Studies

Background

Growth rate of malaria parasites in the blood of infected subjects is an important measure of efficacy of drugs and vaccines.

Methods

We used log-linear and sine-wave models to estimate the parasite growth rate of the 3D7 strain of Plasmodium falciparum using data from 177 subjects from 14 induced blood stage malaria (IBSM) studies conducted at QIMR Berghofer. We estimated parasite multiplication rate per 48 hour (PMR₄₈), PMR per life-cycle (PMR_LC), and parasite life-cycle duration. We compared these parameters to those from studies conducted elsewhere with infections induced by IBSM (n=66), sporozoites via mosquito bite (n=336) or injection (n=51).

Results

The parasite growth rate of 3D7 in QIMR Berghofer studies was 0.75/day (95% CI: 0.73–0.77/day), PMR₄₈ was 31.9 (95% CI: 28.7–35.4), PMR_LC was 16.4 (95% CI: 15.1–17.8) and parasite life-cycle was 38.8 hour (95% CI: 38.3–39.2 hour). These parameters were similar to estimates from IBSM studies elsewhere (0.71/day, 95% CI: 0.67–0.75/day; PMR₄₈ 26.6, 95% CI: 22.2–31.8), but significantly higher (P < 0.001) than in sporozoite studies (0.47/day, 95% CI: 0.43–0.50/day; PMR₄₈ 8.6, 95% CI: 7.3–10.1).

Conclusions

Parasite growth rates were similar across different IBSM studies and higher than infections induced by sporozoite.

Parasite Viability as a Superior Measure of Antimalarial Drug Activity in Humans

BACKGROUND

Artemisinin derivatives are the leading class of antimalarial drugs due to their rapid onset of action and rapid clearance of circulating parasites. The parasite clearance half-life measures the rate of loss of parasites from blood after treatment, and this is currently used to assess antimalarial activity of novel agents and to monitor resistance. However, a number of recent studies have challenged the use of parasite clearance to measure drug activity, arguing that many circulating parasites may be nonviable.

METHODS

Plasmodium falciparum-infected subjects (n = 10) in a malaria volunteer infection study were administered a single dose of artesunate (2 mg/kg). Circulating parasite concentration was assessed by means of quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR). Parasite viability after artesunate administration was estimated by mathematical modeling of the ex vivo growth of parasites collected from subjects.

RESULTS

We showed that in artemisinin-sensitive infection, viable parasites declined to <0.1% of baseline within 8 hours after artesunate administration, while the total number of circulating parasites measured with quantitative polymerase chain reaction remained unchanged. In artemisinin-resistant infections over the same interval, viable parasites declined to 51.4% (standard error of the mean, 4.6%) of baseline.

CONCLUSIONS

These results demonstrate that in vivo drug activity of artesunate is faster than is indicated by the parasite clearance half-life.

Malaria Parasite Clearance: What Are We Really Measuring?

Antimalarial drugs are vital for treating malaria and controlling transmission. Measuring drug efficacy in the field requires large clinical trials and thus we have identified proxy measures of drug efficacy such as the parasite clearance curve. This is often assumed to measure the rate of drug activity against parasites and is used to predict optimal treatment regimens required to completely clear a blood-stage infection. We discuss evidence that the clearance curve is not measuring the rate of drug killing. This has major implications for how we assess optimal treatment regimens, as well as how we prioritise new drugs in the drug development pipeline.

Ensemble modeling highlights importance of understanding parasite-host behavior in preclinical antimalarial drug development

Emerging drug resistance and high-attrition rates in early and late stage drug development necessitate accelerated development of antimalarial compounds. However, systematic and meaningful translation of drug efficacy and host-parasite dynamics between preclinical testing stages is missing. We developed an ensemble of mathematical within-host parasite growth and antimalarial action models, fitted to extensive data from four antimalarials with different modes of action, to assess host-parasite interactions in two preclinical drug testing systems of murine parasite P. berghei in mice, and human parasite P. falciparum in immune-deficient mice. We find properties of the host-parasite system, namely resource availability, parasite maturation and virulence, drive P. berghei dynamics and drug efficacy, whereas experimental constraints primarily influence P. falciparum infection and drug efficacy. Furthermore, uninvestigated parasite behavior such as dormancy influences parasite recrudescence following non-curative treatment and requires further investigation. Taken together, host-parasite interactions should be considered for meaningful translation of pharmacodynamic properties between murine systems and for predicting human efficacious treatment.

Within-host modeling of blood-stage malaria

Malaria infection continues to be a major health problem worldwide and drug resistance in the major human parasite species, Plasmodium falciparum, is increasing in South East Asia. Control measures including novel drugs and vaccines are in development, and contributions to the rational design and optimal usage of these interventions are urgently needed. Infection involves the complex interaction of parasite dynamics, host immunity, and drug effects. The long life cycle (48 hours in the common human species) and synchronized replication cycle of the parasite population present significant challenges to modeling the dynamics of Plasmodium infection. Coupled with these, variation in immune recognition and drug action at different life cycle stages leads to further complexity. We review the development and progress of "within-host" models of Plasmodium infection, and how these have been applied to understanding and interpreting human infection and animal models of infection.

In Silico Investigation of the Decline in Clinical Efficacy of Artemisinin Combination Therapies Due to Increasing Artemisinin and Partner Drug Resistance

Antimalarial treatment currently relies on an artemisinin derivative and a longer-acting partner drug. With the emergence of resistance to the artemisinin derivatives and the potential pressure this exerts on the partner drugs, the impact of resistance to each drug on efficacy needs to be investigated. An in silico exploration of dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine and mefloquine-artesunate, two artemisinin-based combination therapies that are commonly used in Southeast Asia, was performed. The percentage of treatment failures was simulated from a within-host pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PKPD) model, assuming that parasites developed increasing levels of (i) artemisinin derivative resistance or (ii) concomitant resistance to both the artemisinin derivative and the partner drug. Because the exact nature of how resistant Plasmodium falciparum parasites respond to treatment is unknown, we examined the impact on treatment failure rates of artemisinin resistance that (i) reduced the maximal killing rate, (ii) increased the concentration of drug required for 50% killing, or (iii) shortened the window of parasite stages that were susceptible to artemisinin derivatives until the drugs had no effect on the ring stages. The loss of the ring-stage activity of the artemisinin derivative caused the greatest increase in the treatment failure rate, and this result held irrespective of whether partner drug resistance was assumed to be present or not. To capture the uncertainty regarding how artemisinin derivative and partner drug resistance affects the assumed concentration-killing effect relationship, a variety of changes to this relationship should be considered when using within-host PKPD models to simulate clinical outcomes to guide treatment strategies for resistant infections.

Investigating the Efficacy of Triple Artemisinin-Based Combination Therapies for Treating Plasmodium falciparum Malaria Patients Using Mathematical Modeling

The first line treatment for uncomplicated falciparum malaria is artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT), which consists of an artemisinin derivative coadministered with a longer-acting partner drug. However, the spread of Plasmodium falciparum resistant to both artemisinin and its partner drugs poses a major global threat to malaria control activities. Novel strategies are needed to retard and reverse the spread of these resistant parasites. One such strategy is triple artemisinin-based combination therapy (TACT). We developed a mechanistic within-host mathematical model to investigate the efficacy of a TACT (dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine-mefloquine [DHA-PPQ-MQ]) for use in South-East Asia, where DHA and PPQ resistance are now increasingly prevalent. Comprehensive model simulations were used to explore the degree to which the underlying resistance influences the parasitological outcomes. The effect of MQ dosing on the efficacy of TACT was quantified at various degrees of DHA and PPQ resistance. To incorporate interactions between drugs, a novel model is presented for the combined effect of DHA-PPQ-MQ, which illustrates how the interactions can influence treatment efficacy. When combined with a standard regimen of DHA and PPQ, the administration of three 6.7-mg/kg doses of MQ was sufficient to achieve parasitological efficacy greater than that currently recommended by World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines. As a result, three 8.3-mg/kg doses of MQ, the current WHO-recommended dosing regimen for MQ, combined with DHA-PPQ, has the potential to produce high cure rates in regions where resistance to DHA-PPQ has emerged.

Quantification of host-mediated parasite clearance during blood-stage Plasmodium infection and anti-malarial drug treatment in mice

A major mechanism of host-mediated control of blood-stage Plasmodium infection is thought to be removal of parasitized red blood cells (pRBCs) from circulation by the spleen or phagocytic system. The rate of parasite removal is thought to be further increased by anti-malarial drug treatment, contributing to the effectiveness of drug therapy. It is difficult to directly compare pRBC removal rates in the presence and absence of treatment, since in the absence of treatment the removal rate of parasites is obscured by the extent of ongoing parasite proliferation. Here, we transfused a single generation of fluorescently-labelled Plasmodium berghei pRBCs into mice, and monitored both their disappearance from circulation, and their replication to produce the next generation of pRBCs. In conjunction with a new mathematical model, we directly estimated host removal of pRBCs during ongoing infection, and after drug treatment. In untreated mice, pRBCs were removed from circulation with a half-life of 15.1 h. Treatment with various doses of mefloquine/artesunate did not alter the pRBC removal rate, despite blocking parasite replication effectively. An exception was high dose artesunate, which doubled the rate of pRBC removal (half-life of 9.1 h). Phagocyte depletion using clodronate liposomes approximately halved the pRBC removal rate during untreated infection, indicating a role for phagocytes in clearance. We next assessed the importance of pRBC clearance for the decrease in the parasite multiplication rate after high dose artesunate treatment. High dose artesunate decreased parasite replication ∼46-fold compared with saline controls, with inhibition of replication contributing 23-fold of this, and increased pRBC clearance contributing only a further 2.0-fold. Thus, in our in vivo systems, drugs acted primarily by inhibiting parasite replication, with drug-induced increases in pRBC clearance making only minor contributions to overall drug effect.

A Dynamic Stress Model Explains the Delayed Drug Effect in Artemisinin Treatment of Plasmodium falciparum

Artemisinin resistance constitutes a major threat to the continued success of control programs for malaria, particularly in light of developing resistance to partner drugs. Improving our understanding of how artemisinin-based drugs act and how resistance manifests is essential for the optimization of dosing regimens and the development of strategies to prolong the life span of current first-line treatment options. Recent short-drug-pulse in vitro experiments have shown that the parasite killing rate depends not only on drug concentration but also the exposure time, challenging the standard pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) paradigm in which the killing rate depends only on drug concentration. Here, we introduce a dynamic stress model of parasite killing and show through application to 3D7 laboratory strain viability data that the inclusion of a time-dependent parasite stress response dramatically improves the model's explanatory power compared to that of a traditional PK-PD model. Our model demonstrates that the previously reported hypersensitivity of early-ring-stage parasites of the 3D7 strain to dihydroartemisinin compared to other parasite stages is due primarily to a faster development of stress rather than a higher maximum achievable killing rate. We also perform in vivo simulations using the dynamic stress model and demonstrate that the complex temporal features of artemisinin action observed in vitro have a significant impact on predictions for in vivo parasite clearance. Given the important role that PK-PD models play in the design of clinical trials for the evaluation of alternative drug dosing regimens, our novel model will contribute to the further development and improvement of antimalarial therapies.

Model-Informed Drug Development for Malaria Therapeutics

Malaria is a critical public health problem resulting in substantial morbidity and mortality, particularly in developing countries. Owing to the development of resistance toward current therapies, novel approaches to accelerate the development efforts of new malaria therapeutics are urgently needed. There have been significant advancements in the development of in vitro and in vivo experiments that generate data used to inform decisions about the potential merit of new compounds. A comprehensive disease-drug model capable of integrating discrete data from different preclinical and clinical components would be a valuable tool across all stages of drug development. This could have an enormous impact on the otherwise slow and resource-intensive process of traditional clinical drug development.

A mechanistic model quantifies artemisinin-induced parasite growth retardation in blood-stage Plasmodium falciparum infection

Falciparum malaria is a major parasitic disease causing widespread morbidity and mortality globally. Artemisinin derivatives-the most effective and widely-used antimalarials that have helped reduce the burden of malaria by 60% in some areas over the past decade-have recently been found to induce growth retardation of blood-stage Plasmodium falciparum when applied at clinically relevant concentrations. To date, no model has been designed to quantify the growth retardation effect and to predict the influence of this property on in vivo parasite killing. Here we introduce a mechanistic model of parasite growth from the ring to trophozoite stage of the parasite's life cycle, and by modelling the level of staining with an RNA-binding dye, we demonstrate that the model is able to reproduce fluorescence distribution data from in vitro experiments using the laboratory 3D7 strain. We quantify the dependence of growth retardation on drug concentration and identify the concentration threshold above which growth retardation is evident. We estimate that the parasite life cycle is prolonged by up to 10 hours. We illustrate that even such a relatively short delay in growth may significantly influence in vivo parasite dynamics, demonstrating the importance of considering growth retardation in the design of optimal artemisinin-based dosing regimens.

In-host modeling

Understanding the mechanisms governing host-pathogen kinetics is important and can guide human interventions. In-host mathematical models, together with biological data, have been used in this endeavor. In this review, we present basic models used to describe acute and chronic pathogenic infections. We highlight the power of model predictions, the role of drug therapy, and advantage of considering the dynamics of immune responses. We also present the limitations of these models due in part to the trade-off between the complexity of the model and their predictive power, and the challenges a modeler faces in determining the appropriate formulation for a given problem.

Mathematical Modelling to Guide Drug Development for Malaria Elimination

Mathematical models of the dynamics of a drug within the host are now frequently used to guide drug development. These generally focus on assessing the efficacy and duration of response to guide patient therapy. Increasingly, antimalarial drugs are used at the population level, to clear infections, provide chemoprevention, and to reduce onward transmission of infection. However, there is less clarity on the extent to which different drug properties are important for these different uses. In addition, the emergence of drug resistance poses new threats to longer-term use and highlights the need for rational drug development. Here, we argue that integrating within-host pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) models with mathematical models for the population-level transmission of malaria is key to guiding optimal drug design to aid malaria elimination.

Incorporating Stage-Specific Drug Action into Pharmacological Modeling of Antimalarial Drug Treatment

Pharmacological modeling of antiparasitic treatment based on a drug's pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic properties plays an increasingly important role in identifying optimal drug dosing regimens and predicting their potential impact on control and elimination programs. Conventional modeling of treatment relies on methods that do not distinguish between parasites at different developmental stages. This is problematic for malaria parasites, as their sensitivity to drugs varies substantially during their 48-h developmental cycle. We investigated four drug types (short or long half-lives with or without stage-specific killing) to quantify the accuracy of the standard methodology. The treatment dynamics of three drug types were well characterized with standard modeling. The exception were short-half-life drugs with stage-specific killing (i.e., artemisinins) because, depending on time of treatment, parasites might be in highly drug-sensitive stages or in much less sensitive stages. We describe how to bring such drugs into pharmacological modeling by including additional variation into the drug's maximal killing rate. Finally, we show that artemisinin kill rates may have been substantially overestimated in previous modeling studies because (i) the parasite reduction ratio (PRR) (generally estimated to be 10(4)) is based on observed changes in circulating parasite numbers, which generally overestimate the "true" PRR, which should include both circulating and sequestered parasites, and (ii) the third dose of artemisinin at 48 h targets exactly those stages initially hit at time zero, so it is incorrect to extrapolate the PRR measured over 48 h to predict the impact of doses at 48 h and later.

Pharmacokinetic studies of antimalarials: recent developments

Pharmacokinetic studies are essential for the development of safe and effective antimalarial treatment regimens, but there are clinical situations in which there are limited data on drug disposition. These include very young children, pregnant women, and where drug interactions may alter treatment response. New approaches such as sampling methods involving low volumes and minimal preparation such as dried blood spots, highly sensitive and specific multidrug assays, and population PK analyses which can evaluate the influence of covariates such as age, pregnancy and coadministered therapies, can generate robust data that inform treatment in the most challenging situations in the tropics.