Comparison of Nonlinear Mixed Effects Models and Noncompartmental Approaches in Detecting Pharmacogenetic Covariates

Pharmacometrics-Based Considerations for the Design of a Pharmacogenomic Clinical Trial Assessing Irinotecan Safety

PURPOSE

Pharmacometric models provide useful tools to aid the rational design of clinical trials. This study evaluates study design-, drug-, and patient-related features as well as analysis methods for their influence on the power to demonstrate a benefit of pharmacogenomics (PGx)-based dosing regarding myelotoxicity.

METHODS

Two pharmacokinetic and one myelosuppression model were assembled to predict concentrations of irinotecan and its metabolite SN-38 given different UGT1A1 genotypes (poor metabolizers: CLSN-38: -36%) and neutropenia following conventional versus PGx-based dosing (350 versus 245 mg/m2 (-30%)). Study power was assessed given diverse scenarios (n = 50-400 patients/arm, parallel/crossover, varying magnitude of CLSN-38, exposure-response relationship, inter-individual variability) and using model-based data analysis versus conventional statistical testing.

RESULTS

The magnitude of CLSN-38 reduction in poor metabolizers and the myelosuppressive potency of SN-38 markedly influenced the power to show a difference in grade 4 neutropenia (<0.5·109 cells/L) after PGx-based versus standard dosing. To achieve >80% power with traditional statistical analysis (χ2/McNemar's test, α = 0.05), 220/100 patients per treatment arm/sequence (parallel/crossover study) were required. The model-based analysis resulted in considerably smaller total sample sizes (n = 100/15 given parallel/crossover design) to obtain the same statistical power.

CONCLUSIONS

The presented findings may help to avoid unfeasible trials and to rationalize the design of pharmacogenetic studies.

Modelling of atorvastatin pharmacokinetics and the identification of the effect of a BCRP polymorphism in the Japanese population

AIM

Ethnicity plays a modulating role in atorvastatin pharmacokinetics (PK), with Asian patients reported to have higher exposure compared with Caucasians. Therefore, it is difficult to safely extrapolate atorvastatin PK data and models across ethnic groups. This work aims to develop a population PK model for atorvastatin and its pharmacologically active metabolites specifically for the Japanese population. Subsequently, it aimed to identify genetic polymorphisms affecting atorvastatin PK in this population.

METHODS

Atorvastatin acid (ATA) and ortho-hydroxy-atorvastatin acid (o-OH-ATA) plasma concentrations, clinical/demographic characteristics and genotypes for 18 (3, 3, 1, 1, 7, 2 and 1 in the ABCB1, ABCG2, CYP3A4, CYP3A5, SLCO1B1, SLCO2B1 and PPARA genes, respectively) genetic polymorphisms were collected from 27 Japanese individuals (taking 10 mg atorvastatin once daily) and analysed using a population PK modelling approach.

RESULTS

The population PK model developed (one-compartment for ATA linked through metabolite formation to an additional compartment describing the disposition of o-OH-ATA) accurately described the observed data and the associated population variability. Our analysis suggested that patients carrying one variant allele for the rs2622604 polymorphism (ABCG2) show a 55% (95% confidence interval: 16-131%) increase in atorvastatin oral bioavailability relative to the value in individuals without the variant allele.

CONCLUSION

The current work reports the identification in the Japanese population of a BCRP polymorphism, not previously associated with the PK of any statin, that markedly increases ATA and o-OH-ATA exposure. The model developed may be of clinical importance to guide dosing recommendations tailored specifically for the Japanese.

Adjusted adaptive Lasso for covariate model-building in nonlinear mixed-effect pharmacokinetic models

One important aim in population pharmacokinetics (PK) and pharmacodynamics is identification and quantification of the relationships between the parameters and covariates. Lasso has been suggested as a technique for simultaneous estimation and covariate selection. In linear regression, it has been shown that Lasso possesses no oracle properties, which means it asymptotically performs as though the true underlying model was given in advance. Adaptive Lasso (ALasso) with appropriate initial weights is claimed to possess oracle properties; however, it can lead to poor predictive performance when there is multicollinearity between covariates. This simulation study implemented a new version of ALasso, called adjusted ALasso (AALasso), to take into account the ratio of the standard error of the maximum likelihood (ML) estimator to the ML coefficient as the initial weight in ALasso to deal with multicollinearity in non-linear mixed-effect models. The performance of AALasso was compared with that of ALasso and Lasso. PK data was simulated in four set-ups from a one-compartment bolus input model. Covariates were created by sampling from a multivariate standard normal distribution with no, low (0.2), moderate (0.5) or high (0.7) correlation. The true covariates influenced only clearance at different magnitudes. AALasso, ALasso and Lasso were compared in terms of mean absolute prediction error and error of the estimated covariate coefficient. The results show that AALasso performed better in small data sets, even in those in which a high correlation existed between covariates. This makes AALasso a promising method for covariate selection in nonlinear mixed-effect models.

Population Pharmacokinetics of Methylphenidate in Healthy Adults Emphasizing Novel and Known Effects of Several Carboxylesterase 1 (CES1) Variants

The aim of this study was to identify demographic and genetic factors that significantly affect methylphenidate (MPH) pharmacokinetics (PK), and may help explain interindividual variability and further increase the safety of MPH. d‐MPH plasma concentrations, demographic covariates, and carboxylesterase 1 (CES1) genotypes were gathered from 122 healthy adults and analyzed using nonlinear mixed effects modeling. The structural model that best described the data was a two‐compartment disposition model with absorption transit compartments. Novel effects of rs115629050 and CES1 diplotypes, as well as previously reported effects of rs71647871 and body weight, were included in the final model. Assessment of the independent and combined effect of CES1 covariates identified several specific risk factors that may result in severely increased d‐MPH plasma exposure.

Combined Analysis of Phase I and Phase II Data to Enhance the Power of Pharmacogenetic Tests

We show through a simulation study how the joint analysis of data from phase I and phase II studies enhances the power of pharmacogenetic tests in pharmacokinetic (PK) studies. PK profiles were simulated under different designs along with 176 genetic markers. The null scenarios assumed no genetic effect, while under the alternative scenarios, drug clearance was associated with six genetic markers randomly sampled in each simulated dataset. We compared penalized regression Lasso and stepwise procedures to detect the associations between empirical Bayes estimates of clearance, estimated by nonlinear mixed effects models, and genetic variants. Combining data from phase I and phase II studies, even if sparse, increases the power to identify the associations between genetics and PK due to the larger sample size. Design optimization brings a further improvement, and we highlight a direct relationship between η‐shrinkage and loss of genetic signal.