Model-Based Adaptive Optimal Design (MBAOD) Improves Combination Dose Finding Designs: an Example in Oncology

Model-Based Interspecies Scaling for Predicting Human Pharmacokinetics of CB 4332, a Complement Factor I Protein

Interspecies scaling of the pharmacokinetics (PK) of CB 4332, a 150 kDa recombinant complement factor I protein, was performed using traditional and model-based approaches to inform first-in-human dose selection. Plasma concentration versus time data from four preclinical PK studies of single intravenous and subcutaneous (SC) CB 4332 dosing in mice, rats and nonhuman primates (NHPs) were modeled simultaneously using naive pooling including allometric scaling. The human-equivalent dose was calculated using the preclinical no observed adverse effect level (NOAEL) as part of the dose-by-factor approach. Pharmacokinetic modeling of CB 4332 revealed species-specific differences in the elimination, which was accounted for by including an additional rat-specific clearance. Signs of anti-drug antibodies (ADA) formation in all rats and some NHPs were observed. Consequently, an additional ADA-induced clearance parameter was estimated including the time of onset. The traditional dose-by-factor approach calculated a maximum recommended starting SC dose of 0.9 mg/kg once weekly, which was predicted it to result in a trough steady-state concentration lower than the determined efficacy target range for CB 4332 in humans. Model simulations predicted the efficacy target range to be reached using 5 mg/kg once weekly SC dosing.

Robust and Adaptive Two-stage Designs in Nonlinear Mixed Effect Models

To get informative studies for nonlinear mixed effect models (NLMEM), design optimization can be performed based on Fisher Information Matrix (FIM) using the D-criterion. Its computation requires knowledge about models and parameters, which are often prior guesses. Thus, adaptive designs composed of several stages may be used. Robust approach can also be used to account for various candidate models. In the estimation step of a given stage, model selection (MS) or model averaging (MA) can be performed. In this work we propose a new two-stage adaptive design strategy, based on the robust expected FIM and MA over several candidate models. The methodology is applied to a clinical trial simulation in ophthalmology to optimize doses and time measurements. A set of dose-response candidate models is defined, and one-stage designs are compared to two-stage 50/50 designs (i.e., each stage performed with half of the available subjects), using either local optimal design or robust design, and performing analysis with one model, MS or MA. Performing a two-stage design with MS at the interim analysis can correct the choice of a wrong model for designing the first stage. Overall, starting from a robust design (1- or 2-stage) is valuable and leads to reasonable bias and precision. The proposed robust adaptive design strategy is a new tool to design longitudinal studies that could be used in different therapeutic areas.

Model-based assessment of combination therapies - ranking of radiosensitizing agents in oncology

BACKGROUND

To increase the chances of finding efficacious anticancer drugs, improve development times and reduce costs, it is of interest to rank test compounds based on their potential for human use as early as possible in the drug development process. In this paper, we present a method for ranking radiosensitizers using preclinical data.

METHODS

We used data from three xenograft mice studies to calibrate a model that accounts for radiation treatment combined with radiosensitizers. A nonlinear mixed effects approach was utilized where between-subject variability and inter-study variability were considered. Using the calibrated model, we ranked three different Ataxia telangiectasia-mutated inhibitors in terms of anticancer activity. The ranking was based on the Tumor Static Exposure (TSE) concept and primarily illustrated through TSE-curves.

RESULTS

The model described data well and the predicted number of eradicated tumors was in good agreement with experimental data. The efficacy of the radiosensitizers was evaluated for the median individual and the 95% population percentile. Simulations predicted that a total dose of 220 Gy (5 radiation sessions a week for 6 weeks) was required for 95% of tumors to be eradicated when radiation was given alone. When radiation was combined with doses that achieved at least 8 [Formula: see text] of each radiosensitizer in mouse blood, it was predicted that the radiation dose could be decreased to 50, 65, and 100 Gy, respectively, while maintaining 95% eradication.

CONCLUSIONS

A simulation-based method for calculating TSE-curves was developed, which provides more accurate predictions of tumor eradication than earlier, analytically derived, TSE-curves. The tool we present can potentially be used for radiosensitizer selection before proceeding to subsequent phases of the drug discovery and development process.

Efficient simulation of clinical target response surfaces

Simulation of combination therapies is challenging due to computational complexity. Either a simple model is used to simulate the response for many combinations of concentration to generate a response surface but parameter variability and uncertainty are neglected and the concentrations are constant—the link to the doses to be administered is difficult to make—or a population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model is used to predict the response to combination therapy in a clinical trial taking into account the time‐varying concentration profile, interindividual variability (IIV), and parameter uncertainty but simulations are limited to only a few selected doses. We devised new algorithms to efficiently search for the combination doses that achieve a predefined efficacy target while taking into account the IIV and parameter uncertainty. The result of this method is a response surface of confidence levels, indicating for all dose combinations the likelihood of reaching the specified efficacy target. We highlight the importance to simulate across a population rather than focus on an individual. Finally, we provide examples of potential applications, such as informing experimental design.

Pharmacometrics meets statistics-A synergy for modern drug development

Modern drug development problems are very complex and require integration of various scientific fields. Traditionally, statistical methods have been the primary tool for design and analysis of clinical trials. Increasingly, pharmacometric approaches using physiology-based drug and disease models are applied in this context. In this paper, we show that statistics and pharmacometrics have more in common than what keeps them apart, and collectively, the synergy from these two quantitative disciplines can provide greater advances in clinical research and development, resulting in novel and more effective medicines to patients with medical need.

Optimal control for colistin dosage selection

Optimization of antibiotic administration helps minimizing cases of bacterial resistance. Dosages are often selected by trial and error using a pharmacokinetic (PK) model. However, this is limited to the range of tested dosages, restraining possible treatment choices, especially for the loading doses. Colistin is a last-resort antibiotic with a narrow therapeutic window; therefore, its administration should avoid subtherapeutic or toxic concentrations. This study formulates an optimal control problem for dosage selection of colistin based on a PK model, minimizing deviations of colistin concentration to a target value and allowing a specific dosage optimization for a given individual. An adjoint model was used to provide the sensitivity of concentration deviations to dose changes. A three-compartment PK model was adopted. The standard deviation between colistin plasma concentrations and a target set at 2 mg/L was minimized for some chosen treatments and sample patients. Significantly lower deviations from the target concentration are obtained for shorter administration intervals (e.g. every 8 h) compared to longer ones (e.g. every 24 h). For patients with normal or altered renal function, the optimal loading dose regimen should be divided into two or more administrations to attain the target concentration quickly, with a high first loading dose followed by much lower ones. This regimen is not easily obtained by trial and error, highlighting advantages of the method. The present method is a refined optimization of antibiotic dosage for the treatment of infections. Results for colistin suggest significant improvement in treatment avoiding subtherapeutic or toxic concentrations.

Comparison of Various Phase I Combination Therapy Designs in Oncology for Evaluation of Early Tumor Shrinkage Using Simulations

There is still a lack of efficient designs for identifying the dose response in oncology combination therapies in early clinical trials. The concentration response relationship can be identified using the early tumor shrinkage time course, which has been shown to be a good early response marker of clinical efficacy. The performance of various designs using an exposure–tumor growth inhibition model was explored using simulations. Different combination effects of new drug M and cetuximab (reference therapy) were explored first assuming no effect of M on cetuximab (to investigate the type I error (α)), and subsequently assuming additivity or synergy between cetuximab and M. One‐arm, two‐arm, and four‐arm designs were evaluated. In the one‐arm design, 60 patients received cetuximab + M. In the two‐arm design, 30 patients received cetuximab and 30 received cetuximab + M. In the four‐arm design, in addition to cetuximab and cetuximab + M as standard doses, combination arms with lower doses of cetuximab were evaluated (15 patients/arm). Model‐based predictions or “simulated observations” of early tumor shrinkage at week 8 (ETS8) were compared between the different arms. With the same number of individuals, the one‐arm design showed better statistical power than other designs but led to strong inflation of α in case of misestimated reference for ETS8 value. The two‐arm design protected against this misestimation and, with the same total number of subjects, would provide higher statistical power than a four‐arm design. However, a four‐arm design would be helpful for exploring more doses of cetuximab in combination with M to better understand the interaction.

Mathematical model and tool to explore shorter multi-drug therapy options for active pulmonary tuberculosis

Standard treatment for active tuberculosis (TB) requires drug treatment with at least four drugs over six months. Shorter-duration therapy would mean less need for strict adherence, and reduced risk of bacterial resistance. A system pharmacology model of TB infection, and drug therapy was developed and used to simulate the outcome of different drug therapy scenarios. The model incorporated human immune response, granuloma lesions, multi-drug antimicrobial chemotherapy, and bacterial resistance. A dynamic population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) simulation model including rifampin, isoniazid, pyrazinamide, and ethambutol was developed and parameters aligned with previous experimental data. Population therapy outcomes for simulations were found to be generally consistent with summary results from previous clinical trials, for a range of drug dose and duration scenarios. An online tool developed from this model is released as open source software. The TB simulation tool could support analysis of new therapy options, novel drug types, and combinations, incorporating factors such as patient adherence behavior.

A comprehensive in-silico model of pulmonary tuberculosis successfully predicted previous clinical trials and could simulate future therapeutics.

Optimization of clinical dosing schedule to manage neutropenia: learnings from semi-mechanistic modeling simulation approach

Neutropenia is a common side-effect of oncology drugs. We aimed to study the impact of exposure and dosing schedule on neutropenia to guide selection of dosing schedules that minimize neutropenia potential while maintaining the desired minimum concentration (C_min) required for target engagement. Dose, frequency and PK parameters were chosen for five hypothetical drugs of various half-lives to (1) achieve same exposure with continuous dosing and evaluate impact of 4 intermittent dosing schedules; and (2) achieve same nadir for continuous and intermittent dosing and evaluate impact on % time above C_min, a surrogate assumed to indicate target engagement. Absolute neutrophil count (ANC) profiles were simulated using Friberg model, a widely used semi-mechanistic myelosuppression model, assuming drug concentration directly reduce the proliferation rate of stem cells and progenitor cells in proliferation compartment. The correlations between different PK measures and neutropenia metrics were explored. In (1), when the same daily dose was used, intermittent schedules offered better management of ANC nadir. The reduced average drug exposure with intermittent dosing led to lower% time above C_min. In (2), when the dose was adjusted to achieve the same nadir, drugs with moderate half-life (8-48 h) showed similar % time above C_min regardless of schedule, while continuous dosing was better for a short half-life (4 h). Area under the concentration curve (AUC) was highly correlated with neutropenia. In summary, continuous dosing, with the dose selected correctly, is most effective to maintain % time above C_min while providing similar tolerability as intermittent dosing with a higher dose. But dose interruptions could be required to manage individual toxicities. Intermittent schedules, on the other hand, allow recovery of ANC, enabling more orderly schedules.

Body of evidence and approaches applied in the clinical development programme of fixed-dose combinations in the European Union from 2010 to 2016

AIMS

To provide insights into the clinical development pathway for fixed-dose combinations (FDCs), to consider strategies, and to elucidate the path to approval by assessing the body of evidence, as summarized in the European Public Assessment Reports.

METHODS

The main resource was the European Public Assessment Reports for 36 FDCs, which included 239 clinical trials with 157 514 patients. The analyses focused on how prior knowledge of the active substances or combination, use of pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modelling, and clinical trial design choice impact the size and strategy of the clinical development programme.

RESULTS

FDC products primarily comprised 2 previously approved components (21/36, 71%) and had only 1 approved combination (21/36, 71%). Utilizing previously approved active substances resulted in fewer clinical trials, arms and patients, but FDC doses studied in the clinical development programme. Furthermore, dose-finding trials were performed for less than half of FDCs consisting of 2 previously approved active substances. The standard approach to demonstrate contribution of active substances was through a factorial or single combination study. Finally, the use of pharmacokinetic modelling showed a significant decrease in the number of FDC doses studied.

CONCLUSIONS

The field of FDCs seems to be on the rise, utilizing new molecular entities, prior knowledge and re-profiling drugs. However, a way to move FDC development forward might be through new regulatory and scientific paradigms, in which it is encouraged to utilize model-based approaches to develop FDCs with multiple dose levels and dose ratios for exposure-based treatment that will enable personalization.

Dose Optimization for Anticancer Drug Combinations: Maximizing Therapeutic Index via Clinical Exposure-Toxicity/Preclinical Exposure-Efficacy Modeling

PURPOSE

Recommended phase II dose (RP2D) determination for combination therapy regimens is a constrained optimization problem of maximizing antitumor activity within the constraint of clinical tolerability to provide a wide therapeutic index. A methodology for addressing this problem was developed and tested using clinical and preclinical data from combinations of the investigational drugs TAK-117, a PI3Kα inhibitor, and TAK-228, a TORC1/2 dual inhibitor.

EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN

Utilizing free fraction-corrected average concentrations, [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], which are the primary pharmacokinetic predictors of single-agent preclinical antitumor activity, a preclinical exposure-efficacy surface was characterized, allowing for nonlinear interactions between growth rate inhibition of the agents on a MDA-MB-361 cell line xenograft model. Logistic regression was used to generate an exposure-effect surface for [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] versus clinical toxicity outcomes [experiencing a dose-limiting toxicity (DLT)] in single-agent and combination dose-escalation studies. A maximum tolerated exposure curve was defined at which DLT probability was 25%; predicted antitumor activity along this curve was used to determine optimal RP2D.

RESULTS

The toxicity constraint curve determined from early clinical data predicted that any clinically tolerable combination was unlikely to result in greater antitumor activity than either single-agent TAK-117 or TAK-228 administered at their respective MTDs. Similar results were obtained with 10 other cell lines, with one agent or the other predicted to outperform the combination.

CONCLUSIONS

This methodology represents a general, principled way of evaluating and selecting optimal RP2D combinations in oncology. The methodology will be retested upon availability of clinical data from TAK-117/TAK-228 combination phase II studies.See related commentary by Mayawala et al., p. 6564.