Networked dynamic systems with higher-order interactions: stability versus complexity

The stability of complex systems is profoundly affected by underlying structures, which are often modeled as networks where nodes indicate system components and edges indicate pairwise interactions between nodes. However, such networks cannot encode the overall complexity of networked systems with higher-order interactions among more than two nodes. Set structures provide a natural description of pairwise and higher-order interactions where nodes are grouped into multiple sets based on their shared traits. Here we derive the stability criteria for networked systems with higher-order interactions by employing set structures. In particular, we provide a simple rule showing that the higher-order interactions play a double-sided role in community stability-networked systems with set structures are stabilized if the expected number of common sets for any two nodes is less than one. Moreover, although previous knowledge suggests that more interactions (i.e. complexity) destabilize networked systems, we report that, with higher-order interactions, networked systems can be stabilized by forming more local sets. Our findings are robust with respect to degree heterogeneous structures, diverse equilibrium states and interaction types.

Determinants of successful disease control through voluntary quarantine dynamics on social networks

In the wake of epidemics, quarantine measures are typically recommended by health authorities or governments to help control the spread of the disease. Compared with mandatory quarantine, voluntary quarantine offers individuals the liberty to decide whether to isolate themselves in case of infection exposure, driven by their personal assessment of the trade-off between economic loss and health risks as well as their own sense of social responsibility and concern for public health. To better understand self-motivated health behavior choices under these factors, here we incorporate voluntary quarantine into an endemic disease model - the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model - and perform comprehensive agent-based simulations to characterize the resulting behavior-disease interactions in structured populations. We quantify the conditions under which voluntary quarantine will be an effective intervention measure to mitigate disease burden. Furthermore, we demonstrate how individual decision-making factors, including the level of temptation to refrain from quarantine and the degree of social compassion, impact compliance levels of voluntary quarantines and the consequent collective disease mitigation efforts. We find that successful disease control requires either a sufficiently low level of temptation or a sufficiently high degree of social compassion, such that even complete containment of the epidemic is attainable. In addition to well-mixed populations, we have also analyzed other more realistic social networks of contacts, including spatial lattices, small-world networks, and real social networks. Our work offers new insights into the fundamental social dilemma aspect of disease control through non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as voluntary quarantine and isolation, where the collective outcome of individual decision-making is crucial.

Evolutionary Game Dynamics with Environmental Feedback in a Network with Two Communities

Recent developments of eco-evolutionary models have shown that evolving feedbacks between behavioral strategies and the environment of game interactions, leading to changes in the underlying payoff matrix, can impact the underlying population dynamics in various manners. We propose and analyze an eco-evolutionary game dynamics model on a network with two communities such that players interact with other players in the same community and those in the opposite community at different rates. In our model, we consider two-person matrix games with pairwise interactions occurring on individual edges and assume that the environmental state depends on edges rather than on nodes or being globally shared in the population. We analytically determine the equilibria and their stability under a symmetric population structure assumption, and we also numerically study the replicator dynamics of the general model. The model shows rich dynamical behavior, such as multiple transcritical bifurcations, multistability, and anti-synchronous oscillations. Our work offers insights into understanding how the presence of community structure impacts the eco-evolutionary dynamics within and between niches.

The paradigm of tax-reward and tax-punishment strategies in the advancement of public resource management dynamics

In contemporary society, the effective utilization of public resources remains a subject of significant concern. A common issue arises from defectors seeking to obtain an excessive share of these resources for personal gain, potentially leading to resource depletion. To mitigate this tragedy and ensure sustainable development of resources, implementing mechanisms to either reward those who adhere to distribution rules or penalize those who do not, appears advantageous. We introduce two models: a tax-reward model and a tax-punishment model, to address this issue. Our analysis reveals that in the tax-reward model, the evolutionary trajectory of the system is influenced not only by the tax revenue collected but also by the natural growth rate of the resources. Conversely, the tax-punishment model exhibits distinct characteristics when compared with the tax-reward model, notably the potential for bistability. In such scenarios, the selection of initial conditions is critical, as it can determine the system's path. Furthermore, our study identifies instances where the system lacks stable points, exemplified by a limit cycle phenomenon, underscoring the complexity and dynamism inherent in managing public resources using these models.

Modelling the dynamic vaccination game with evolutionary feedback: exploring pairwise interactions and vaccine strategies

A novel approach rooted in co-evolutionary game theory has been introduced to investigate how the interaction between human decision-making and the dynamics of the epidemic environment can shape vaccine acceptance during disease outbreaks. This innovative framework combines two key game concepts: the cooperation-defection game and the cost-benefit vaccination game. By doing so, it enables us to delve into the various factors that influence the success of a vaccination campaign amid an outbreak. Within this framework, individuals engage in a thorough evaluation of the risks, benefits and incentives associated with either cooperating by getting vaccinated or defecting by refusing the vaccine. Additionally, it involves a careful analysis of the costs and benefits linked to vaccine acceptance. The outcomes of this study stress the importance of two main factors: the effectiveness of the vaccine and the prevalence of a cooperative culture within society. This insight into the strategic interactions between individuals and their decisions about vaccination holds significant implications for public health policymakers. It equips to boost vaccination coverage and address vaccine hesitancy within society ultimately contributing to better public health outcomes during epidemic outbreaks.

Replicator-mutator dynamics with evolutionary public goods game-environmental feedbacks

Feedback loops between strategies and the environment are commonly observed in socio-ecological, evolution-ecological, and psychology-economic systems. However, the impact of mutations in these feedback processes is often overlooked. This study proposes a novel model that integrates the public goods game with environmental feedback, considering the presence of mutations. In our model, the enhancement factor of the public goods game combines positive and negative incentives from the environment. By employing replicator-mutator (RM) equations, we provide an objective understanding of the system's evolutionary state, focusing on identifying conditions that foster cooperation and prevent the tragedy of the commons. Specifically, mutations play a crucial role in the RM dynamics, leading to the emergence of an oscillatory tragedy of the commons. By verifying the Hopf bifurcation condition, we establish the existence of a stable limit cycle, providing valuable insights into sustained oscillation strategies. Moreover, the feedback mechanism inherent in the public goods game model offers a fresh perspective on effectively addressing the classic dilemma of the tragedy of the commons.

Probabilistic activity driven model of temporal simplicial networks and its application on higher-order dynamics

Network modeling characterizes the underlying principles of structural properties and is of vital significance for simulating dynamical processes in real world. However, bridging structure and dynamics is always challenging due to the multiple complexities in real systems. Here, through introducing the individual's activity rate and the possibility of group interaction, we propose a probabilistic activity-driven (PAD) model that could generate temporal higher-order networks with both power-law and high-clustering characteristics, which successfully links the two most critical structural features and a basic dynamical pattern in extensive complex systems. Surprisingly, the power-law exponents and the clustering coefficients of the aggregated PAD network could be tuned in a wide range by altering a set of model parameters. We further provide an approximation algorithm to select the proper parameters that can generate networks with given structural properties, the effectiveness of which is verified by fitting various real-world networks. Finally, we construct the co-evolution framework of the PAD model and higher-order contagion dynamics and derive the critical conditions for phase transition and bistable phenomenon using theoretical and numerical methods. Results show that tendency of participating in higher-order interactions can promote the emergence of bistability but delay the outbreak under heterogeneous activity rates. Our model provides a basic tool to reproduce complex structural properties and to study the widespread higher-order dynamics, which has great potential for applications across fields.

Managing ecological thresholds of a risky commons

Common resources are often overexploited and appear subject to critical transitions from one stable state to another antagonistic state. Many times resulting in tragedy of the commons (TOC)-exploitation of shared resources for personal gain/payoffs, leading to worse outcomes or extinction. An adequate response would be strategic interaction, such as inspection and punishment by institutions to avoid TOC. This strategic interaction is often coupled with dynamically changing common resources. However, effect of strategic interaction in complex, coupled socio-ecological systems is less studied. Here, we develop replicator equations using evolving games in which strategy and common resources co-evolve. We consider the shared commons as fish dynamics governed by the intrinsic growth rate, predation and harvesting. The joint dynamics exhibit an oscillatory TOC, revealing that institutions need to pay special attention to intrinsic growth rate and nonlinear interaction. Our research shows that the co-evolving system exhibits a broader range of dynamics when predation is present compared to the disengaged fishery system. We conclude that the usefulness, chances and challenges of modelling co-evolutionary games to create sustainable systems merit further research.

Behavioral vaccination policies and game-environment feedback in epidemic dynamics

Many policymakers have adopted voluntary vaccination policies to alleviate the consequences of contagious diseases. Such policies have several well-established feathers, i.e. they are seasonal, depending on an individual's decision, adaptive, and control epidemic activity. Here, we study ideas from behavioral epidemiology embedded with a vaccination game and pairwise two-player two-strategy game to represent the environmental feedback in an SVIR model by using a composite information index including disease incidence, vaccine factors and cooperative behavior on a global time scale (repeated season). In its turn, the information index's game dynamics to participate in the vaccine program (cooperation) is supposed to reflect the feedback-evolving dynamics of competitive cognitions and the environment. The assuming model is described by two different evolutionary game systems connected by an unknown external public opinion environment feedback. The embedded model is described by an inherited system showing a behavioral aspect, i.e. pairwise game indicates an individual's cooperative behavior, and a vaccine game refers to vaccine-cost influence. This is a novel attempt to stabilize the two different decision processes to pool them into a single index. Extensive simulations suggest a rich spectrum of achievable results, including epidemic control, human behavior, social dilemma, and policy suggestions.

Nonlinear eco-evolutionary games with global environmental fluctuations and local environmental feedbacks

Environmental changes play a critical role in determining the evolution of social dilemmas in many natural or social systems. Generally, the environmental changes include two prominent aspects: the global time-dependent fluctuations and the local strategy-dependent feedbacks. However, the impacts of these two types of environmental changes have only been studied separately, a complete picture of the environmental effects exerted by the combination of these two aspects remains unclear. Here we develop a theoretical framework that integrates group strategic behaviors with their general dynamic environments, where the global environmental fluctuations are associated with a nonlinear factor in public goods game and the local environmental feedbacks are described by the 'eco-evolutionary game'. We show how the coupled dynamics of local game-environment evolution differ in static and dynamic global environments. In particular, we find the emergence of cyclic evolution of group cooperation and local environment, which forms an interior irregular loop in the phase plane, depending on the relative changing speed of both global and local environments compared to the strategic change. Further, we observe that this cyclic evolution disappears and transforms into an interior stable equilibrium when the global environment is frequency-dependent. Our results provide important insights into how diverse evolutionary outcomes could emerge from the nonlinear interactions between strategies and the changing environments.

Coevolutionary dynamics via adaptive feedback in collective-risk social dilemma game

Human society and natural environment form a complex giant ecosystem, where human activities not only lead to the change in environmental states, but also react to them. By using collective-risk social dilemma game, some studies have already revealed that individual contributions and the risk of future losses are inextricably linked. These works, however, often use an idealistic assumption that the risk is constant and not affected by individual behaviors. Here, we develop a coevolutionary game approach that captures the coupled dynamics of cooperation and risk. In particular, the level of contributions in a population affects the state of risk, while the risk in turn influences individuals' behavioral decision-making. Importantly, we explore two representative feedback forms describing the possible effect of strategy on risk, namely, linear and exponential feedbacks. We find that cooperation can be maintained in the population by keeping at a certain fraction or forming an evolutionary oscillation with risk, independently of the feedback type. However, such evolutionary outcome depends on the initial state. Taken together, a two-way coupling between collective actions and risk is essential to avoid the tragedy of the commons. More importantly, a critical starting portion of cooperators and risk level is what we really need for guiding the evolution toward a desired direction.

Shifts in evolutionary balance of phenotypes under environmental changes

Environments shape communities by driving individual interactions and the evolutionary outcome of competition. In static, homogeneous environments a robust, evolutionary stable, outcome is sometimes reachable. However, inherently stochastic, this evolutionary process need not stabilize, resulting in a dynamic ecological state, often observed in microbial communities. We use evolutionary games to study the evolution of phenotypic competition in dynamic environments. Under the assumption that phenotypic expression depends on the environmental shifts, existing periodic relationships may break or result in formation of new periodicity in phenotypic interactions. The exact outcome depends on the environmental shift itself, indicating the importance of understanding how environments influence affected systems. Under periodic environmental fluctuations, a stable state preserving dominant phenotypes may exist. However, rapid environmental shifts can lead to critical shifts in the phenotypic evolutionary balance. This might lead to environmentally favoured phenotypes dominating making the system vulnerable. We suggest that understanding of the robustness of the system's current state is necessary to anticipate when it will shift to a new equilibrium via understanding what level of perturbations the system can take before its equilibrium changes. Our results provide insights in how microbial communities can be steered to states where they are dominated by desired phenotypes.

Modeling the effects of environmental and perceptual uncertainty using deterministic reinforcement learning dynamics with partial observability

Assessing the systemic effects of uncertainty that arises from agents' partial observation of the true states of the world is critical for understanding a wide range of scenarios, from navigation and foraging behavior to the provision of renewable resources and public infrastructures. Yet previous modeling work on agent learning and decision-making either lacks a systematic way to describe this source of uncertainty or puts the focus on obtaining optimal policies using complex models of the world that would impose an unrealistically high cognitive demand on real agents. In this work we aim to efficiently describe the emergent behavior of biologically plausible and parsimonious learning agents faced with partially observable worlds. Therefore we derive and present deterministic reinforcement learning dynamics where the agents observe the true state of the environment only partially. We showcase the broad applicability of our dynamics across different classes of partially observable agent-environment systems. We find that partial observability creates unintuitive benefits in several specific contexts, pointing the way to further research on a general understanding of such effects. For instance, partially observant agents can learn better outcomes faster, in a more stable way, and even overcome social dilemmas. Furthermore, our method allows the application of dynamical systems theory to partially observable multiagent leaning. In this regard we find the emergence of catastrophic limit cycles, a critical slowing down of the learning processes between reward regimes, and the separation of the learning dynamics into fast and slow directions, all caused by partial observability. Therefore, the presented dynamics have the potential to become a formal, yet practical, lightweight and robust tool for researchers in biology, social science, and machine learning to systematically investigate the effects of interacting partially observant agents.

The Role of Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI) in Complex Adaptive Systems

The energy return on energy invested, EROI or EROEI, is the ratio of the energy produced by a system to the energy expended to build, maintain, and finally dismantle the system. It is an important parameter for evaluating the efficiency of energy-producing technologies. In this paper, we examine the concept of EROEI from the general viewpoint of dynamic dissipative systems, providing insights on a wider range of applications. In general, natural resources can be assimilated to energy stocks characterized by a potential that can be exploited by creating intermediate stocks. This transformation is typical of dissipative systems and for the first time, we report that the Lotka–Volterra model, usually confined to the study of the biology of populations, can represent a powerful tool to estimate the EROEI of dissipative systems and, in particular, those systems subjected to depletion. This assessment is important to evaluate the ongoing energy transition since it provides us with a model for the decline of the EROEI in the exploitation of fossil fuels.

Imitation and aspiration dynamics bring different evolutionary outcomes in feedback-evolving games

Feedback-evolving games characterize the interplay between the evolution of strategies and environments. Rich dynamics have been derived for such games under the premise of the replicator equation, which unveils persistent oscillations between cooperation and defection. Besides replicator dynamics, here we have employed aspiration dynamics, in which individuals, instead of comparing payoffs with opposite strategies, assess their payoffs by self-evaluation to update strategies. We start with a brief review of feedback-evolving games with replicator dynamics and then comprehensively discuss such games with aspiration dynamics. Interestingly, the tenacious cycles, as perceived in replicator dynamics, cannot be observed in aspiration dynamics. Our analysis reveals that a parameter θ —which depicts the strength of cooperation in enhancing the environment—plays a pivotal role in comprehending the dynamics. In particular, with the symmetric aspiration level, if replete and depleted states, respectively, experience Prisoner's Dilemma and Trivial games, the rich environment is achievable only when θ  > 1. The case θ  < 1 never allows us to reach the replete state, even with a higher cooperation level. Furthermore, if cooperators aspire less than defectors, then the enhanced state can be achieved with a relatively lower θ value compared with the opposite scenario because too much expectation from cooperation can be less beneficial.

Eco-evolutionary dynamics of cooperation in the presence of policing

Ecology and evolution are inherently linked, and studying a mathematical model that considers both holds promise of insightful discoveries related to the dynamics of cooperation. In the present article, we use the prisoner's dilemma (PD) game as a basis for long-term apprehension of the essential social dilemma related to cooperation among unrelated individuals. We upgrade the contemporary PD game with an inclusion of evolution-induced act of punishment as a third competing strategy in addition to the traditional cooperators and defectors. In a population structure, the abundance of ecologically-viable free space often regulates the reproductive opportunities of the constituents. Hence, additionally, we consider the availability of free space as an ecological footprint, thus arriving at a simple eco-evolutionary model, which displays fascinating complex dynamics. As possible outcomes, we report the individual dominance of cooperators and defectors as well as a plethora of mixed states, where different strategies coexist followed by maintaining the diversity in a socio-ecological framework. These states can either be steady or oscillating, whereby oscillations are sustained by cyclic dominance among different combinations of cooperators, defectors, and punishers. We also observe a novel route to cyclic dominance where cooperators, punishers, and defectors enter a coexistence via an inverse Hopf bifurcation that is followed by an inverse period doubling route.