Long-term Risk of Bleeding and Ischemic Events After Ischemic Stroke or Transient Ischemic Attack in Young Adults

Low thrombin inactivation capacity is associated with an increased risk of recurrent ischemic events after ischemic stroke at a young age

BACKGROUND

Patients with ischemic stroke at a young age (18-50 years) have an increased long-term risk of recurrent ischemic events. Hypercoagulability may contribute to this high risk.

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the associations between in vivo and ex vivo hemostatic parameters and recurrent ischemic events after an ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) at a young age.

METHODS

We included patients with ischemic stroke or TIA between 1980 and 2010 from the prospective FUTURE cohort. Blood samples were collected in 2010, and patients were followed for recurrent ischemic events from 2010 to 2023. Pro- and anticoagulant markers and thrombin generation assay were measured. Thrombin dynamic analysis was used to study underlying pro- and anticoagulant processes. Hazard ratios (HRs) per standard deviation increase were assessed with cause-specific hazard models.

RESULTS

Of the initial cohort of 581 patients, 332 were eligible. The median time between the index event and 2010 was 7.6 years. During a mean follow-up of 6.5 years, 70 of 332 (21.1%) patients experienced a recurrent ischemic event. Lower antithrombin levels (adjusted HR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.60-0.98) and higher fibrinogen levels (HR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.04-1.73) were associated with higher risk of recurrent ischemic events. Plasma thrombin generation was not associated with recurrence. However, the thrombin decay constant (HR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.51-0.87) was associated with a lower risk of recurrent ischemic events.

CONCLUSION

After an ischemic stroke or TIA at a young age, the thrombin decay constant, which reflects reduced protection against thrombin (low antithrombin) and decreased potential to inhibit thrombin (high fibrinogen), is associated with recurrent ischemic events.

Short-Term and Long-Term Risk of Recurrent Vascular Event by Cause After Ischemic Stroke in Young Adults

Importance

Cause of ischemic stroke in young people is highly variable; however, the risk of recurrence is often presented with all subtypes of stroke grouped together in classification systems such as the Trial of ORG (danaparoid sodium [Orgaran]) 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment (TOAST) criteria, which limits the ability to individually inform young patients with stroke about their risk of recurrence.

Objective

To determine the short-term and long-term risk of recurrent vascular events after ischemic stroke at a young age by stroke cause and to identify factors associated with recurrence.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study used data from the Observational Dutch Young Symptomatic Stroke Study, a prospective, multicenter, hospital-based cohort study, conducted at 17 hospitals in the Netherlands between 2013 and 2021. Eligible participants included 30-day survivors of an initial, neuroimaging-proven ischemic stroke (aged 18-49 years). Data analysis was conducted from June to July 2023.

Exposure

Diagnosis of a first-ever, ischemic stroke via neuroimaging.

Main Outcome and Measures

The primary outcome was short-term (within 6 months) and long-term (within 5 years) recurrence risk of any vascular event, defined as fatal or nonfatal recurrent ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack, myocardial infarction, and revascularization procedure. Predefined characteristics were chosen to identify factors associated with risk of recurrence (cause of stroke, age, sex, stroke severity, and cardiovascular health factors).

Results

A total of 1216 patients (median [IQR] age, 44.2 [38.4-47.7] years; 632 male [52.0%]; 584 female [48.0%]) were included, with a median (IQR) follow-up of 4.3 (2.6-6.0) years. The 6-month risk of any recurrent ischemic event was 6.7% (95% CI, 5.3%-8.1%), and the 5-year risk was 12.2% (95% CI, 10.2%-14.2%)The short-term risk was highest for patients with cervical artery dissections (13.2%; 95% CI, 7.6%-18.7%). Other factors associated with a recurrent short-term event were atherothrombotic stroke, rare causes of stroke, and hypertension. The long-term cumulative risk was highest for patients with atherothrombotic stroke (22.7%; 95% CI, 10.6%-34.7%) and lowest for patients with cryptogenic stroke (5.8%; 95% CI, 3.0%-8.5%). Cardioembolic stroke was associated with a recurrent long-term event, as were diabetes and alcohol abuse.

Conclusions and Relevance

The findings of this cohort study of 1216 patients with an ischemic stroke at a young age suggest that the risk of recurrent vascular events was high and varied by cause of stroke both for short-term and long-term follow-up, including causes that remained concealed when combined into 1 category in the routinely used TOAST criteria. This knowledge will allow for more personalized counseling of young patients with stroke.