Changes in survival after transient ischemic attacks: observations comparing the 1970s and 1980s

Decline in stroke mortality in North Carolina. Description, predictions, and a possible underlying cause

Data from the National Center for Health Statistics were used to describe the decline in age-adjusted stroke mortality rates from 1962 to 1987 for North Carolina and for six regions of the state. For the state as a whole, stroke mortality decreased from 0.0050 to 0.0018 (64% decrease) for white males, 0.0039 to 0.0016 (59% decrease) for white females, 0.0072 to 0.0030 (58% decrease) for black males, and 0.0064 to 0.0025 (61% decrease) for black females. Under the hypothesis that the rate of decline in stroke mortality will slow and approach a "floor," a four-parameter logistic model was fit to the data. This model suggests that most of the decline in North Carolina stroke rates had occurred by 1987 and that the rates are now approaching the floor. For example, the estimated 1987 white male stroke mortality rate was 0.00190 and the floor 0.00176, suggesting only a 7% decline in the future. Similar percentage differences between 1987 levels and the floor were estimated for the three other race-gender groups. This analysis also suggested that while the absolute disparity by sex and race decreased between 1962 and 1987, the ratio of black to white mortality rates and the ratio of male to female mortality rates remained relatively constant. Estimates of 1-year case-fatality rates from two surveys of hospitalized stroke patients in a high-mortality five-county region of North Carolina decreased from 51% in 1970 to 38% in 1980. This decrease in stroke fatality rate is sufficient to account for 64% of the decrease in mortality estimated for this region over the same period.

Why is the outcome of transient ischaemic attacks different in different groups of patients?

The outcomes of each of three large cohorts of patients with transient ischaemic attacks, which were studied in the same country at much the same time with the same methods, were compared and found to be quite different from each other. The differences in outcome were related not only to different strategies of treatment but also to differences in the prevalence and level of important prognostic factors (for example, case mix) and other factors such a the time delay from transient ischaemic attack to entry into the study and the play of chance. The implications for purchasers of health care are that they cannot rely solely on non-randomised comparisons of outcome of patients treated in competing units as a measure of the quality of care (which has only rather modest effects) without accounting for other factors that may influence outcome such as the nature of the illness, the case mix, observer bias, and the play of chance.

Anterior ischemic optic neuropathy is not associated with carotid artery atherosclerosis

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The relation between anterior ischemic optic neuropathy and carotid artery atherosclerotic disease is unclear. We studied patients with anterior ischemic optic neuropathy to determine if they had an increased occurrence of carotid artery stenosis.

METHODS

Fifteen consecutive patients with anterior ischemic optic neuropathy were evaluated prospectively for cervical carotid artery stenosis and compared with 30 age- and sex-matched asymptomatic patients and also with 11 age- and sex-matched patients experiencing transient monocular blindness.

RESULTS

There was no difference in the mean stenosis of the internal carotid artery between patients with anterior ischemic optic neuropathy (mean carotid stenosis, 19%) and asymptomatic patients (mean carotid stenosis, 9%; p > 0.05), whereas patients with transient monocular blindness had significantly more stenosis (mean, 77%) in the cervical carotid arteries than both control subjects (p < 0.0001) and patients with anterior ischemic optic neuropathy (p < 0.0001). There was also no difference in the percentage of patients with stenosis > or = 30% in anterior ischemic optic neuropathy (two of 15) and asymptomatic patients (five of 30), whereas 10 of 11 patients with transient monocular blindness had stenoses > or = 30%, significantly more than patients with anterior ischemic optic neuropathy (p < 0.0001) and asymptomatic patients (p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Anterior ischemic optic neuropathy is not a marker for atherosclerotic carotid artery stenosis. The pathogenesis of nonarteritic anterior ischemic optic neuropathy does not involve carotid artery stenosis in most patients.

The prognosis of hospital-referred transient ischaemic attacks

A cohort of 469 hospital-referred patients with transient ischaemic attacks (TIA) of the brain (66%) or eye (34%) due to presumed atheromatous thromboembolism, lipohyalinosis or cardiogenic embolism, without prior stroke, was assembled between 1976-86. Follow up was prospective and complete until the patients death or the end of 1986. During a mean period of follow up of 4.1 years there were 82 deaths (58 vascular, 24 non-vascular), 63 first-ever strokes and 58 patients with coronary events. A coronary event accounted for 51% of deaths whilst stroke was the cause in 12%. The average risk of death over the first five years after TIA was 4.5% per year. The risk of stroke was 6.6% in the first year and 3.4% per year on average over the first five years. Stroke occurred in the same vascular territory as the initial TIA in about two-thirds of cases, and was of lacunar type in one fifth of these strokes. The average risk of a coronary event over the first five years after TIA was 3.1% per year, similar to that of stroke. However, the risk of a coronary event, and also death, was fairly constant each year after a TIA, in contrast to the risk of stroke which was highest in the first year. The average risk of stroke, myocardial infarction or vascular death over the first five years after TIA was 6.5% per year and the average risk of stroke, myocardial infarction or death from any cause was 7.5% per year. The prognosis of this cohort of hospital-referred TIA patients was better than that of TIA patients in the same community who presented to the Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project (OCSP), and reflected the impact of referral bias. The hospital-referred patients were younger, assessed at a later date after their last TIA, and comprised a greater proportion of patients who had had a TIA of the eye (amaurosis fugax), which had a better prognosis than TIA of the brain. Knowledge of the prognosis of different populations of TIA patients not only enhances understanding and interpretation of previous studies but is also required for optimal patient management and the planning of treatment trials.

Cerebral infarction verified by cranial computed tomography and prognosis for survival following transient ischemic attack

Of 564 consecutive patients with transient ischemic attack, 350 (62%) had cranial computed tomography performed. Except for date of admission and smoking history, there were few differences between the patients evaluated with computed tomography and the 214 who were not. Cerebral infarcts were found in 59 (17%) of the 350 tomographic evaluations. Previous clinically diagnosed stroke, older age, and male sex were all significantly associated with the occurrence of tomographically verified infarcts (p less than 0.05). After controlling for stroke history and other important covariates, patients with tomographically verified infarcts had significantly shorter survival times than did patients without evidence of infarction on computed tomography (p = 0.035). Thus, cranial computed tomography findings appear to have important prognostic value for estimating survival following transient ischemic attack.

Transient ischemic attacks: an update

This is a review of extant concepts of transient ischemic attacks (TIAs), their definitions, prognostic significance, pathogenesis, physiology, and management. The natural history of TIAs depends upon the risk factors of the population group studied, so that therapeutic trials should be controlled and randomized and not dependent upon published natural history data. A strong association between TIAs and coronary artery disease has now been established. It may be difficult to establish the cause or pathogenesis of TIAs in any given patient in view of the relatively poor correlation between the patient's symptoms and location of arterial plaques. Recent studies have suggested mechanisms aside from impaired perfusion or embolization from carotid plaques or vertebral basilar disease. There are no proven indications for carotid endarterectomy, a procedure which has been excessively used in the United States, but presently ongoing prospective, randomized, controlled multi-center studies will likely resolve this important issue. Neither is there scientific validation for the use of long-term anticoagulants, but data support the efficacy of ASA in reducing the incidence of stroke and myocardial infarction in patients with TIAs.