[Causal relationship between physical exercise and risk of ischemic stroke recurrence based on the potential outcome theory]

Thirty-six months recurrence after acute ischemic stroke among patients with comorbid type 2 diabetes: A nested case-control study

Background

Stroke patients have to face a high risk of recurrence, especially for those with comorbid T2DM, which usually lead to much more serious neurologic damage and an increased likelihood of death. This study aimed to explore determinants of stroke relapse among patients with comorbid T2DM.

Materials and methods

We conducted this case-control study nested a prospective cohort of ischemic stroke (IS) with comorbid T2DM. During 36-month follow-up, the second stroke occurred in 84 diabetic IS patients who were allocated into the case group, while 613 patients without recurrence were the controls. We collected the demographic data, behaviors and habits, therapies, and family history at baseline, and measured the variables during follow-up. LASSO and Logistic regression analyses were carried out to develop a prediction model of stroke recurrence. The receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve was employed to evaluate the performance of the prediction model.

Results

Compared to participants without recurrence, the higher levels of pulse rate (78.29 ± 12.79 vs. 74.88 ± 10.93) and hypertension (72.6 vs. 61.2%) were recorded at baseline. Moreover, a lower level of physical activity (77.4 vs. 90.4%), as well as a higher proportion of hypoglycemic therapy (36.9 vs. 23.3%) was also observed during 36-month follow-up. Multivariate logistic regression revealed that higher pulse rate at admission (OR = 1.027, 95 %CI = 1.005–1.049), lacking physical activity (OR = 2.838, 95% CI = 1.418–5.620) and not receiving hypoglycemic therapy (OR = 1.697, 95% CI = 1.013–2.843) during follow-up increased the risk of stroke recurrence. We developed a prediction model using baseline pulse rate, hypoglycemic therapy, and physical activity, which produced an area under ROC curve (AUC) of 0.689.

Conclusion

Physical activity and hypoglycemic therapy play a protective role for IS patients with comorbid diabetes. In addition to targeted therapeutics, the improvement of daily-life habit contributes to slowing the progress of the IS.