Cappello L, Kim J, Palacios JA. adaPop: Bayesian inference of dependent population dynamics in coalescent models.
PLoS Comput Biol 2023;
19:e1010897. [PMID:
36940209 PMCID:
PMC10063170 DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010897]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/27/2022] [Revised: 03/30/2023] [Accepted: 01/25/2023] [Indexed: 03/21/2023] Open
Abstract
The coalescent is a powerful statistical framework that allows us to infer past population dynamics leveraging the ancestral relationships reconstructed from sampled molecular sequence data. In many biomedical applications, such as in the study of infectious diseases, cell development, and tumorgenesis, several distinct populations share evolutionary history and therefore become dependent. The inference of such dependence is a highly important, yet a challenging problem. With advances in sequencing technologies, we are well positioned to exploit the wealth of high-resolution biological data for tackling this problem. Here, we present adaPop, a probabilistic model to estimate past population dynamics of dependent populations and to quantify their degree of dependence. An essential feature of our approach is the ability to track the time-varying association between the populations while making minimal assumptions on their functional shapes via Markov random field priors. We provide nonparametric estimators, extensions of our base model that integrate multiple data sources, and fast scalable inference algorithms. We test our method using simulated data under various dependent population histories and demonstrate the utility of our model in shedding light on evolutionary histories of different variants of SARS-CoV-2.
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