Machine Learning for Predicting In-Hospital Mortality After Traumatic Brain Injury in Both High-Income and Low- and Middle-Income Countries

Using an artificial intelligence software improves emergency medicine physician intracranial haemorrhage detection to radiologist levels

BACKGROUND

Tools to increase the turnaround speed and accuracy of imaging reports could positively influence ED logistics. The Caire ICH is an artificial intelligence (AI) software developed for ED physicians to recognise intracranial haemorrhages (ICHs) on non-contrast enhanced cranial CT scans to manage the clinical care of these patients in a timelier fashion.

METHODS

A dataset of 532 non-contrast cranial CT scans was reviewed by five board-certified emergency physicians (EPs) with an average of 14.8 years of practice experience. The scans were labelled in random order for the presence or absence of an ICH. If an ICH was detected, the reader further labelled all subtypes present (ie, epidural, subdural, subarachnoid, intraparenchymal and/or intraventricular haemorrhage). After a washout period, the five EPs reviewed again the scans individually with the assistance of Caire ICH. The mean accuracy of the EP readings with AI assistance was compared with the mean accuracy of three general radiologists reading the films individually. The final diagnosis (ie, ground truth) was adjudicated by a consensus of the radiologists after their individual readings.

RESULTS

Mean EP reader accuracy significantly increased by 6.20% (95% CI for the difference 5.10%-7.29%; p=0.0092) when using Caire ICH to detect an ICH. Mean accuracy of the EP cohort in detecting an ICH using Caire ICH was found to be more accurate than the radiologist cohort prior to discussion; this difference, however, was not statistically significant.

CONCLUSION

The Caire ICH software significantly improved the accuracy and sensitivity of detecting an ICH by the EP to a level comparable to general radiologists. Further prospective research with larger numbers will be needed to understand the impact of Caire ICH on ED logistics and patient outcomes.

Enhancing hospital course and outcome prediction in patients with traumatic brain injury: A machine learning study

PURPOSE

We aimed to use machine learning (ML) algorithms with clinical, lab, and imaging data as input to predict various outcomes in traumatic brain injury (TBI) patients.

METHODS

In this retrospective study, blood samples were analyzed for glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) and ubiquitin C-terminal hydrolase L1 (UCH-L1). The non-contrast head CTs were reviewed by two neuroradiologists for TBI common data elements (CDE). Three outcomes were designed to predict: discharged or admitted for further management (prediction 1), deceased or not deceased (prediction 2), and admission only, prolonged stay, or neurosurgery performed (prediction 3). Five ML models were trained. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analyses were used to assess the relative significance of variables.

RESULTS

Four hundred forty patients were used to predict predictions 1 and 2, while 271 patients were used in prediction 3. Due to Prediction 3's hospitalization requirement, deceased and discharged patients could not be utilized. The Random Forest model achieved an average accuracy of 1.00 for prediction 1 and an accuracy of 0.99 for prediction 2. The Random Forest model achieved a mean accuracy of 0.93 for prediction 3. Key features were extracranial injury, hemorrhage, UCH-L1 for prediction 1; The Glasgow Coma Scale, age, GFAP for prediction 2; and GFAP, subdural hemorrhage volume, and pneumocephalus for prediction 3, per SHAP analysis.

CONCLUSION

Combining clinical and laboratory parameters with non-contrast CT CDEs allowed our ML models to accurately predict the designed outcomes of TBI patients. GFAP and UCH-L1 were among the significant predictor variables, demonstrating the importance of these biomarkers.

Machine Learning in Neurosurgery: Toward Complex Inputs, Actionable Predictions, and Generalizable Translations

Machine learning can predict neurosurgical diagnosis and outcomes, power imaging analysis, and perform robotic navigation and tumor labeling. State-of-the-art models can reconstruct and generate images, predict surgical events from video, and assist in intraoperative decision-making. In this review, we will detail the neurosurgical applications of machine learning, ranging from simple to advanced models, and their potential to transform patient care. As machine learning techniques, outputs, and methods become increasingly complex, their performance is often more impactful yet increasingly difficult to evaluate. We aim to introduce these advancements to the neurosurgical audience while suggesting major potential roadblocks to their safe and effective translation. Unlike the previous generation of machine learning in neurosurgery, the safe translation of recent advancements will be contingent on neurosurgeons' involvement in model development and validation.

Machine learning-based model for predicting inpatient mortality in adults with traumatic brain injury: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background and objective

Predicting mortality from traumatic brain injury facilitates early data-driven treatment decisions. Machine learning has predicted mortality from traumatic brain injury in a growing number of studies, and the aim of this study was to conduct a meta-analysis of machine learning models in predicting mortality from traumatic brain injury.

Methods

This systematic review and meta-analysis included searches of PubMed, Web of Science and Embase from inception to June 2023, supplemented by manual searches of study references and review articles. Data were analyzed using Stata 16.0 software. This study is registered with PROSPERO (CRD2023440875).

Results

A total of 14 studies were included. The studies showed significant differences in the overall sample, model type and model validation. Predictive models performed well with a pooled AUC of 0.90 (95% CI: 0.87 to 0.92).

Conclusion

Overall, this study highlights the excellent predictive capabilities of machine learning models in determining mortality following traumatic brain injury. However, it is important to note that the optimal machine learning modeling approach has not yet been identified.

Systematic review registration

https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/display_record.php?RecordID=440875, identifier CRD2023440875.

Reimagining Healthcare: Unleashing the Power of Artificial Intelligence in Medicine

Artificial intelligence (AI) has opened new medical avenues and revolutionized diagnostic and therapeutic practices, allowing healthcare providers to overcome significant challenges associated with cost, disease management, accessibility, and treatment optimization. Prominent AI technologies such as machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) have immensely influenced diagnostics, patient monitoring, novel pharmaceutical discoveries, drug development, and telemedicine. Significant innovations and improvements in disease identification and early intervention have been made using AI-generated algorithms for clinical decision support systems and disease prediction models. AI has remarkably impacted clinical drug trials by amplifying research into drug efficacy, adverse events, and candidate molecular design. AI's precision and analysis regarding patients' genetic, environmental, and lifestyle factors have led to individualized treatment strategies. During the COVID-19 pandemic, AI-assisted telemedicine set a precedent for remote healthcare delivery and patient follow-up. Moreover, AI-generated applications and wearable devices have allowed ambulatory monitoring of vital signs. However, apart from being immensely transformative, AI's contribution to healthcare is subject to ethical and regulatory concerns. AI-backed data protection and algorithm transparency should be strictly adherent to ethical principles. Vigorous governance frameworks should be in place before incorporating AI in mental health interventions through AI-operated chatbots, medical education enhancements, and virtual reality-based training. The role of AI in medical decision-making has certain limitations, necessitating the importance of hands-on experience. Therefore, reaching an optimal balance between AI's capabilities and ethical considerations to ensure impartial and neutral performance in healthcare applications is crucial. This narrative review focuses on AI's impact on healthcare and the importance of ethical and balanced incorporation to make use of its full potential.

Machine Learning Approach for the Prediction of In-Hospital Mortality in Traumatic Brain Injury Using Bio-Clinical Markers at Presentation to the Emergency Department

BACKGROUND

Accurate prediction of in-hospital mortality is essential for better management of patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI). Machine learning (ML) algorithms have been shown to be effective in predicting clinical outcomes. This study aimed to identify predictors of in-hospital mortality in TBI patients using ML algorithms.

MATERIALS AND METHOD

A retrospective study was performed using data from both the trauma registry and electronic medical records among TBI patients admitted to the Hamad Trauma Center in Qatar between June 2016 and May 2021. Thirteen features were selected for four ML models including a Support Vector Machine (SVM), Logistic Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XgBoost), to predict the in-hospital mortality.

RESULTS

A dataset of 922 patients was analyzed, of which 78% survived and 22% died. The AUC scores for SVM, LR, XgBoost, and RF models were 0.86, 0.84, 0.85, and 0.86, respectively. XgBoost and RF had good AUC scores but exhibited significant differences in log loss between the training and testing sets (% difference in logloss of 79.5 and 41.8, respectively), indicating overfitting compared to the other models. The feature importance trend across all models indicates that aPTT, INR, ISS, prothrombin time, and lactic acid are the most important features in prediction. Magnesium also displayed significant importance in the prediction of mortality among serum electrolytes.

CONCLUSIONS

SVM was found to be the best-performing ML model in predicting the mortality of TBI patients. It had the highest AUC score and did not show overfitting, making it a more reliable model compared to LR, XgBoost, and RF.

Machine Learning to Predict Three Types of Outcomes After Traumatic Brain Injury Using Data at Admission: A Multi-Center Study for Development and Validation

The difficulty of accurately identifying patients who would benefit from promising treatments makes it challenging to prove the efficacy of novel treatments for traumatic brain injury (TBI). Although machine learning is being increasingly applied to this task, existing binary outcome prediction models are insufficient for the effective stratification of TBI patients. The aim of this study was to develop an accurate 3-class outcome prediction model to enable appropriate patient stratification. To this end, retrospective balanced data of 1200 blunt TBI patients admitted to six Japanese hospitals from January 2018 onwards (200 consecutive cases at each institution) were used for model training and validation. We incorporated 21 predictors obtained in the emergency department, including age, sex, six clinical findings, four laboratory parameters, eight computed tomography findings, and an emergency craniotomy. We developed two machine learning models (XGBoost and dense neural network) and logistic regression models to predict 3-class outcomes based on the Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended (GOSE) at discharge. The prediction models were developed using a training dataset with n = 1000, and their prediction performances were evaluated over two validation rounds on a validation dataset (n = 80) and a test dataset (n = 120) using the bootstrap method. Of the 1200 patients in aggregate, the median patient age was 71 years, 199 (16.7%) exhibited severe TBI, and emergency craniotomy was performed on 104 patients (8.7%). The median length of stay was 13.0 days. The 3-class outcomes were good recovery/moderate disability for 709 patients (59.1%), severe disability/vegetative state in 416 patients (34.7%), and death in 75 patients (6.2%). XGBoost model performed well with 69.5% sensitivity, 82.5% accuracy, and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.901 in the final validation. In terms of the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, the XGBoost outperformed the neural network-based and logistic regression models slightly. In particular, XGBoost outperformed the logistic regression model significantly in predicting severe disability/vegetative state. Although each model predicted favorable outcomes accurately, they tended to miss the mortality prediction. The proposed machine learning model was demonstrated to be capable of accurate prediction of in-hospital outcomes following TBI, even with the three GOSE-based categories. As a result, it is expected to be more impactful in the development of appropriate patient stratification methods in future TBI studies than conventional binary prognostic models. Further, outcomes were predicted based on only clinical data obtained from the emergency department. However, developing a robust model with consistent performance in diverse scenarios remains challenging, and further efforts are needed to improve generalization performance.

Prognosis prediction in traumatic brain injury patients using machine learning algorithms

Predicting treatment outcomes in traumatic brain injury (TBI) patients is challenging worldwide. The present study aimed to achieve the most accurate machine learning (ML) algorithms to predict the outcomes of TBI treatment by evaluating demographic features, laboratory data, imaging indices, and clinical features. We used data from 3347 patients admitted to a tertiary trauma centre in Iran from 2016 to 2021. After the exclusion of incomplete data, 1653 patients remained. We used ML algorithms such as random forest (RF) and decision tree (DT) with ten-fold cross-validation to develop the best prediction model. Our findings reveal that among different variables included in this study, the motor component of the Glasgow coma scale, the condition of pupils, and the condition of cisterns were the most reliable features for predicting in-hospital mortality, while the patients' age takes the place of cisterns condition when considering the long-term survival of TBI patients. Also, we found that the RF algorithm is the best model to predict the short-term mortality of TBI patients. However, the generalized linear model (GLM) algorithm showed the best performance (with an accuracy rate of 82.03 ± 2.34) in predicting the long-term survival of patients. Our results showed that using appropriate markers and with further development, ML has the potential to predict TBI patients' survival in the short- and long-term.

Machine learning predicts improvement of functional outcomes in traumatic brain injury patients after inpatient rehabilitation

Survivors of traumatic brain injury (TBI) have an unpredictable clinical course. This unpredictability makes clinical resource allocation for clinicians and anticipatory guidance for patients difficult. Historically, experienced clinicians and traditional statistical models have insufficiently considered all available clinical information to predict functional outcomes for a TBI patient. Here, we harness artificial intelligence and apply machine learning and statistical models to predict the Functional Independence Measure (FIM) scores after rehabilitation for traumatic brain injury (TBI) patients. Tree-based algorithmic analysis of 629 TBI patients admitted to a large acute rehabilitation facility showed statistically significant improvement in motor and cognitive FIM scores at discharge.

Machine Learning for Predicting Discharge Disposition After Traumatic Brain Injury

BACKGROUND

Current traumatic brain injury (TBI) prognostic calculators are commonly used to predict the mortality and Glasgow Outcome Scale, but these outcomes are most relevant for severe TBI. Because mild and moderate TBI rarely reaches severe outcomes, there is a need for novel prognostic endpoints.

OBJECTIVE

To generate machine learning (ML) models with a strong predictive capacity for trichotomized discharge disposition, an outcome not previously used in TBI prognostic models. The outcome can serve as a proxy for patients' functional status, even in mild and moderate patients with TBI.

METHODS

Using a large data set (n = 5292) of patients with TBI from a quaternary care center and 84 predictors, including vitals, demographics, mechanism of injury, initial Glasgow Coma Scale, and comorbidities, we trained 6 different ML algorithms using a nested-stratified-cross-validation protocol. After optimizing hyperparameters and performing model selection, isotonic regression was applied to calibrate models.

RESULTS

When maximizing the microaveraged area under the receiver operating characteristic curve during hyperparameter optimization, a random forest model exhibited top performance. A random forest model was also selected when maximizing the microaveraged area under the precision-recall curve. For both models, the weighted average area under the receiver operating characteristic curves was 0.84 (95% CI 0.81-0.87) and the weighted average area under the precision-recall curves was 0.85 (95% CI 0.82-0.88).

CONCLUSION

Our group presents high-performing ML models to predict trichotomized discharge disposition. These models can assist in optimization of patient triage and treatment, especially in cases of mild and moderate TBI.

A Computer-Assisted System for Early Mortality Risk Prediction in Patients with Traumatic Brain Injury Using Artificial Intelligence Algorithms in Emergency Room Triage

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) remains a critical public health challenge. Although studies have found several prognostic factors for TBI, a useful early predictive tool for mortality has yet to be developed in the triage of the emergency room. This study aimed to use machine learning algorithms of artificial intelligence (AI) to develop predictive models for TBI patients in the emergency room triage. We retrospectively enrolled 18,249 adult TBI patients in the electronic medical records of three hospitals of Chi Mei Medical Group from January 2010 to December 2019, and undertook the 12 potentially predictive feature variables for predicting mortality during hospitalization. Six machine learning algorithms including logistical regression (LR) random forest (RF), support vector machines (SVM), LightGBM, XGBoost, and multilayer perceptron (MLP) were used to build the predictive model. The results showed that all six predictive models had high AUC from 0.851 to 0.925. Among these models, the LR-based model was the best model for mortality risk prediction with the highest AUC of 0.925; thus, we integrated the best model into the existed hospital information system for assisting clinical decision-making. These results revealed that the LR-based model was the best model to predict the mortality risk in patients with TBI in the emergency room. Since the developed prediction system can easily obtain the 12 feature variables during the initial triage, it can provide quick and early mortality prediction to clinicians for guiding deciding further treatment as well as helping explain the patient’s condition to family members.