The distribution of the coalescence time and the number of pairwise nucleotide differences in a model of population divergence or speciation with an initial period of gene flow

This paper is concerned with a model of "isolation with an initial period of migration", where a panmictic ancestral population split into n descendant populations which exchanged migrants symmetrically at a constant rate for a period of time and subsequently became completely isolated. In the limit as the population split occurred an infinitely long time ago, the model becomes an "isolation after migration" model, describing completely isolated descendant populations which arose from a subdivided ancestral population. The probability density function of the coalescence time of a pair of genes and the probability distribution of the number of pairwise nucleotide differences are derived for both models. Whilst these are theoretical results of interest in their own right, they also give an exact analytical expression for the likelihood, for data consisting of the numbers of nucleotide differences between pairs of DNA sequences where each pair is at a different, independent locus. The behaviour of the distribution of the number of pairwise nucleotide differences under these models is illustrated and compared to the corresponding distributions under the "isolation with migration" and "complete isolation" models. It is shown that the distribution of the number of nucleotide differences between a pair of DNA sequences from different descendant populations in the model of "isolation with an initial period of migration" can be quite different from that under the "isolation with migration model", even if the average migration rate over time (and hence the total number of migrants) is the same in both scenarios. It is also illustrated how the results can be extended to other demographic scenarios that can be described by a combination of isolated panmictic populations and "symmetric island" models.

Fixation probability for a beneficial allele and a mutant strategy in a linear game under weak selection in a finite island model

The effect of population structure on the probability of fixation of a newly introduced mutant under weak selection is studied using a coalescent approach. Wright's island model in a framework of a finite number of demes is assumed and two selection regimes are considered: a beneficial allele model and a linear game among offspring. A first-order approximation of the fixation probability for a single mutant with respect to the intensity of selection is deduced. The approximation requires the calculation of expected coalescence times, under neutrality, for lineages starting from two or three sampled individuals. The results are obtained in a general setting without assumptions on the number of demes, the deme size or the migration rate, which allows for simultaneous coalescence or migration events in the genealogy of the sampled individuals. Comparisons are made with limit cases as the deme size or the number of demes goes to infinity or the migration rate goes to zero for which a diffusion approximation approach is possible. Conditions for selection to favor a mutant strategy replacing a resident strategy in the context of a linear game in a finite island population are addressed.

The coalescence time of sampled genes in the structured coalescent model

The aim of this article is to investigate the distribution of the coalescence time (T) for sampled genes in the structured coalescent. We obtain some exact solutions for small samples and approximate distributions for n sampled genes in strong and weak migration. We also conduct computer simulation to evaluate efficiencies of these approximations and show the dependency of the distribution of the coalescence time on the geographical structure and the intensity of migration. In a panmictic population, we prove that the conditional distribution of the coalescence time given the number of segregating sites (S) among sampled genes is given by the weighted mean of the convolution of gamma distributions. We also study the joint distribution of T and S in the structured coalescent model and show some exact solutions.

The effect of unequal migration rates on FST

Using the structured coalescent model, it is shown that unequal migration rates between different pairs of subpopulations can increase the value of Wright's coefficient F(ST) and its dependence on the mutation rate, and decrease the effective level of gene flow. Two specific models of population structure are considered: (i) an 'island model with barrier' where migration rates between subpopulations on the same side of the barrier are higher than migration rates between subpopulations on opposite sides of the barrier, and (ii) the two-dimensional stepping-stone model with unequal migration rates in the two dimensions of the model.