ESTIMATING THE GUMBEL SCALE PARAMETER FOR LOCAL ALIGNMENT OF RANDOM SEQUENCES BY IMPORTANCE SAMPLING WITH STOPPING TIMES

The gapped local alignment score of two random sequences follows a Gumbel distribution. If computers could estimate the parameters of the Gumbel distribution within one second, the use of arbitrary alignment scoring schemes could increase the sensitivity of searching biological sequence databases over the web. Accordingly, this article gives a novel equation for the scale parameter of the relevant Gumbel distribution. We speculate that the equation is exact, although present numerical evidence is limited. The equation involves ascending ladder variates in the global alignment of random sequences. In global alignment simulations, the ladder variates yield stopping times specifying random sequence lengths. Because of the random lengths, and because our trial distribution for importance sampling occurs on a different sample space from our target distribution, our study led to a mapping theorem, which led naturally in turn to an efficient dynamic programming algorithm for the importance sampling weights. Numerical studies using several popular alignment scoring schemes then examined the efficiency and accuracy of the resulting simulations.

The Gumbel pre-factor k for gapped local alignment can be estimated from simulations of global alignment

The optimal gapped local alignment score of two random sequences follows a Gumbel distribution. The Gumbel distribution has two parameters, the scale parameter λ and the pre-factor k. Presently, the basic local alignment search tool (BLAST) programs (BLASTP (BLAST for proteins), PSI-BLAST, etc.) use all time-consuming computer simulations to determine the Gumbel parameters. Because the simulations must be done offline, BLAST users are restricted in their choice of alignment scoring schemes. The ultimate aim of this paper is to speed the simulations, to determine the Gumbel parameters online, and to remove the corresponding restrictions on BLAST users. Simulations for the scale parameter λ can be as much as five times faster, if they use global instead of local alignment [R. Bundschuh (2002) J. Comput. Biol., 9, 243–260]. Unfortunately, the acceleration does not extend in determining the Gumbel pre-factor k, because k has no known mathematical relationship to global alignment. This paper relates k to global alignment and exploits the relationship to show that for the BLASTP defaults, 10 000 realizations with sequences of average length 140 suffice to estimate both Gumbel parameters λ and k within the errors required (λ, 0.8%; k, 10%). For the BLASTP defaults, simulations for both Gumbel parameters now take less than 30 s on a 2.8 GHz Pentium 4 processor.