A simple nomogram to evaluate the risk of nonsentinel node metastases in breast cancer patients with minimal sentinel node involvement

Diagnostic Efficiency of Diffusion Sequences and a Clinical Nomogram for Detecting Lymph Node Metastases from Rectal Cancer

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES

First, to evaluate and compare three different diffusion sequences (i.e., standard DWI, IVIM, and DKI) for nodal staging. Second, to combine the DWI, and anatomic information to assess metastatic lymph node (LN).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We retrospectively identified 136 patients of rectal adenocarcinoma who met the inclusion criteria. Three diffusion sequences (i.e., standard DWI, IVIM, and DKI) were performed, and quantitative parameters were evaluated. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to assess the associations between the anatomic and DWI information and LN pathology. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify independent risk factors. A nomogram model was established, and the model performance was evaluated by the concordance index (c-index) and calibration curve.

RESULTS

There was a statistical difference in variables (LN long diameter, LN short diameter, LN boundary, LN signal, peri-LN signal intensity, ADC_-1000, ADC_-1400, ADC_-2000, K_app and D) between metastatic and non-metastatic LN for training and validation cohorts (p < 0.05). The ADC value derived from b = 1000 mm/s (ADC_-1000) showed the relative higher AUC (AUC = 0.780) than the ADC value derived from b = 1400 mm/s (ADC_-1400) (AUC = 0.703). The predictive accuracy of the nomogram measured by the c-index was 0.854 and 0.812 in the training and validation cohort, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The IVIM and DKI model's diagnostic efficiency was not significantly improved compared to conventional DWI. The diagnostic accuracy of metastatic LN can be enhanced using the nomogram model, leading to a rational therapeutic choice.

Omitting SLNB in Breast Cancer: Is a Nomogram the Answer?

BACKGROUNDS

Sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) is standard care as a staging procedure in patients with invasive breast cancer. The axillary recurrence rate, even after positive SLNB, is low. This raises serious doubts regarding the clinical value of SLNB in early breast cancer. The purpose of this study is to select patients with low suspected axillary burden in whom SLNB might be omitted.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 2015 primary breast cancer patients between 2007 and 2015, with 982 patients allocated to the training and 961 to the validation cohort. Variables associated with nodal disease were analyzed and used to build a nomogram for predicting nodal disease.

RESULTS

A total of 32.8% of patients had macrometastatic disease. A predictive model was constructed based on age, cN0, morphology, grade, multifocality, and tumor size with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.83. Considering a false-negative rate of 5%, 32.8% of patients could be spared axillary surgery. In a subanalysis of patients with relatively favorable characteristics, 26.8% had less than 5% chance of macrometastases.

CONCLUSIONS

We present a model with excellent predictive value that can select one-third of patients in whom SLNB is deemed not necessary because of less than 5% chance of nodal involvement. Whether missing 1 in 20 patients with macrometastatic disease is worthwhile balanced against preventing side-effects of the SLN procedure remains to be established. A number of ongoing large prospective trials evaluating the outcome of omitting SLNB are awaited. Meanwhile, this nomogram may be used for individual decision-making.

Clinical implications of intrinsic molecular subtypes of breast cancer for sentinel node status

Axillary lymph node status is an important prognostic factor for breast cancer patients and sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) is a less invasive surgical proxy. We examined if consecutively derived molecular subtypes from primary breast cancers provide additional predictive value for SLNB status. 1556 patients with a breast cancer > 10 mm underwent primary surgical procedure including SLNB and tumor specimens were assigned with a transcriptomics-based molecular subtype. 1020 patients had a negative sentinel node (SN) and 536 a positive. A significant association between tumor size and SN status (p < 0.0001) was found across all samples, but no association between size and SN status (p = 0.14) was found for BasL tumors. A BasL subtype was a predictor of an SN-negative status (p = 0.001, OR 0.58, 95% CI 0.38;0.90) and among the BasL, postmenopausal status was a predictor for SN-negative status (p = 0.01). Overall survival was significantly lower (p = 0.02) in patients with BasL tumors and a positive SN. Interestingly, we identified a significant correlation between hormone receptor activity and SN status within the BasL subtype. Taken together, molecular subtypes and hormone receptor activity of breast cancers add predictive value for SLNB status.

Survival Nomograms after Curative Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy and Radical Surgery for Stage IB2-IIIB Cervical Cancer

Purpose

The purpose of this study was to develop nomograms for predicting the probability of overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) in locally advanced cervical cancer treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy and radical surgery.

Materials and Methods

Nomograms to predict the 5-year OS rates and the 2-year PFS rates were constructed. Calibration plots were constructed, and concordance indices were calculated. Evaluated variableswere body mass index, age, tumor size, tumor histology, grading, lymphovascular space invasion, positive parametria, and positive lymph nodes.

Results

In total 245 patients with locally advanced cervical cancer who underwent neoadjuvant chemotherapy and radical surgery were included for the construction of the nomogram. The 5-year OS and PFS were 72.6% and 66%, respectively. Tumor size, grading, and parametria status affected the rate of OS, whereas tumor size and positive parametria were the main independent PFS prognostic factors.

Conclusion

We constructed a nomogram based on clinicopathological features in order to predict 2-year PFS and 5-year OS in locally advanced cervical cancer primarily treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy followed by radical surgery. This tool might be particularly helpful for assisting in the follow-up of cervical cancer patients who have not undergone concurrent chemoradiotherapy.

A nomogram predicting pathological complete response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy for locally advanced rectal cancer: implications for organ preservation strategies

PURPOSE

To determine predictors of pathological complete response (pCR) in locally advanced rectal cancer patients treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT), and develop a predictive nomogram.

METHODS

A total of 522 locally advanced rectal cancer patients undergoing nCRT and curative resection between 2008 and 2014 were included. Uni- and multivariate analysis was performed to identify predictors of pCR. A nomogram was developed and validated by internal (n=425) and external validation (n=97).

RESULTS

With a median follow-up of 55 months, pCR was associated with better 5-year overall and disease-free survival, distant control, but similar local control. Logistic regression showed that post-CRT distance from the anal verge (OR =0.840, P = 0.022), post-CRT tumor size (OR = 0.565, P = 0.003), post-CRT circumferential extent of tumor (OR = 0.021, P < 0.001), pre-CRT CEA level (OR = 2.004, P = 0.033), and post-CRT CEA level (OR = 3.767, P = 0.038) were independently associated with pCR. A nomogram was developed with a C-index of 0.81 and 0.75 on internal and external validation, respectively.

CONCLUSION

pCR was associated with better long-term outcome. A nomogram was successfully developed to predict pCR. It could support decision-making in organ preservation strategies.

A nomogram to predict distant metastasis after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and radical surgery in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer

PURPOSE

To compare distant metastasis (DM) in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) patients treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) and surgery alone, and to develop a predictive nomogram for DM following nCRT.

METHODS

Propensity-scoring match analysis was performed to compare DM in LARC treated with nCRT (n = 375) and surgery alone (n = 375). Cox regression was performed to identify predictors of DM following nCRT. A nomogram was developed and validated by internal (n = 425) and external validation (n = 97).

RESULTS

The 5-year local recurrence rate was significantly lower in the nCRT group (5.6% vs. 10.4%; P = 0.020). The 5-year DM rates (nCRT vs. surgery alone: 25.3% vs. 24.4%; P = 0.235) were similar between groups. Cox regression showed that the post-nCRT pathologic stage (ypTNM stage, OR = 2.022, P = 0.002), IMA nodal metastasis (OR = 2.171, P = 0.023), and CRM involvement (OR = 2.535, P = 0.016) were independently associated with DM following nCRT. A predictive nomogram was developed with a C-index of 0.70 on internal validation, and 0.71 on the external validation.

CONCLUSION

NCRT improved local control, but not distant metastasis. A nomogram to predict 3- and 5-year DM rates, using clinicopathological parameters, was successfully developed. This prognostic tool could support decision-making in clinical practice and follow-up strategies.

Impact of completion axillary lymph node dissection in patients with breast cancer and isolated tumour cells or micrometastases in sentinel nodes

BACKGROUND

Omission of completion axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) is a standard practice in patients with breast cancer (BC) and negative sentinel nodes (SNs) but has shown insufficient evidence to be recommended in those with SN invasion.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of a cohort of patients with BC and micrometastases (Mic) or isolated tumour cells (ITCs) in SN. Factors associated with ALND were identified, and patients with ALND were matched to patients without ALND. Overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) were estimated in the overall population, in Mic and in ITC cohorts.

FINDINGS

Among 2009 patients analysed, 1390 and 619 had Mic and ITC in SN, respectively. Factors significantly associated with ALND were SN status, histological type, age, number of SN harvested and absence of adjuvant chemotherapy. After a median follow-up of 60.4 months, ALND omission was independently associated with reduced OS (hazard ratio [HR] 2.41, 90 confidence interval [CI] 1.36-4.27, p = 0.0102), but not with increased RFS (HR 1.21, 90 CI 0.74-2.0, p = 0.52) in the overall population. In matched patients, the increased risk of death in case of ALND omission was found only in the Mic cohort (HR 2.88, 90 CI 1.46-5.69), not in the ITC cohort. The risk of recurrence was also significantly increased in the subgroup of matched Mic patients (HR 1.56, 90 CI 0.90-2.73).

INTERPRETATION

A separate analysis of Mic and ITC groups, matched for the determinants of ALND, suggested that patients with Mic had increased recurrence rates and shorter OS when ALND was not performed. Our results are consistent with those of previous studies for patients with ITC but not for those with Mic. Randomised controlled clinical trials are still warranted to show with a high level of evidence if ALND can be safely omitted in patients with micrometastatic disease in SN.

Locoregional treatment of early breast cancer with isolated tumor cells or micrometastases on sentinel lymph node biopsy

The advent of sentinel lymph-node technique has led to a shift in lymph-node staging, due to the emergence of new entities namely micrometastases (pN1mi) and isolated tumor cells [pN0(i+)]. The prognostic significance of this low positivity in axillary lymph nodes is currently debated, as is, therefore its management. This article provides updates evidence-based medicine data to take into account for treatment decision-making in this setting, discussing the locoregional treatment in pN0(i+) and pN1mi patients (completion axillary dissection, axillary irradiation with or without regional nodes irradiation, or observation), according to systemic treatment, with the goal to help physicians in their daily practice.

[Regional treatment for axillary lymph node micrometastases of breast cancer]

In patients with breast cancer, axillary lymph node micrometastasis detection has been more frequent with a better definition since the introduction of the sentinel node procedure. In this review, we focus on pN1mi micrometastasis and review the literature in order to determine factors involved in making the decision of a regional treatment.

[Sentinel lymph node-multicentric and multifocal tumors: a valid technique?]

Sentinel node biopsy without complementary axillary lymph node dissection was validated for T1-2 N0 unifocal breast cancer without previous treatment since several years. In the situation of multifocal multicentric breast tumors, this procedure was considered as a contraindication. The aim of this work was to analyse literature results to determine if sentinel lymph node biopsy can be considered as a valid option without complementary axillary lymph node dissection for negative sentinel lymph node.

Prognostic nomograms for predicting survival and distant metastases in locally advanced rectal cancers

Aim

To develop prognostic nomograms for predicting outcomes in patients with locally advanced rectal cancers who do not receive preoperative treatment.

Materials and Methods

A total of 883 patients with stage II–III rectal cancers were retrospectively collected from a single institution. Survival analyses were performed to assess each variable for overall survival (OS), local recurrence (LR) and distant metastases (DM). Cox models were performed to develop a predictive model for each endpoint. The performance of model prediction was validated by cross validation and on an independent group of patients.

Results

The 5-year LR, DM and OS rates were 22.3%, 32.7% and 63.8%, respectively. Two prognostic nomograms were successfully developed to predict 5-year OS and DM-free survival rates, with c-index of 0.70 (95% CI = [0.66, 0.73]) and 0.68 (95% CI = [0.64, 0.72]) on the original dataset, and 0.76 (95% CI = [0.67, 0.86]) and 0.73 (95% CI = [0.63, 0.83]) on the validation dataset, respectively. Factors in our models included age, gender, carcinoembryonic antigen value, tumor location, T stage, N stage, metastatic lymph nodes ratio, adjuvant chemotherapy and chemoradiotherapy. Predicted by our nomogram, substantial variability in terms of 5-year OS and DM-free survival was observed within each TNM stage category.

Conclusions

The prognostic nomograms integrated demographic and clinicopathological factors to account for tumor and patient heterogeneity, and thereby provided a more individualized outcome prognostication. Our individualized prediction nomograms could help patients with preoperatively under-staged rectal cancer about their postoperative treatment strategies and follow-up protocols.

In breast cancer patients sentinel lymph node metastasis characteristics predict further axillary involvement

The aim of the study was to correlate various primary tumor characteristics with lymph node status, to examine sentinel lymph node (SLN) metastasis size and non-SLN axillary involvement, to look for a cut-off size/number value possibly predicting additional axillary involvement with more accuracy and to examine the relationship of SLN metastasis size to overall survival. Of 301 patients who underwent SLN biopsy, 75 had positive SLNs. The size of the metastases was measured. For different size categories, association with the prevalence of non-SLN metastases was assessed. Associations between metastasis size and tumor characteristics and overall survival (OS) were studied. The prevalence of axillary lymph node (ALN) involvement was not significantly different between cases with micrometastasis or macrometastasis in SLNs (p = 0.124). However, for metastases larger than 6, 7, and 8 mm, the prevalence of ALN involvement was significantly higher (p = 0.046, 0.022, and 0.025). OS was significantly lower in SLN-positive than in SLN-negative cases (p = 0.0375). Primary tumor size larger than 20 mm was associated with a significantly higher incidence of SLN metastasis (p < 0.001), and primary tumor size over 26 mm was associated with additional positive non-SLN (p < 0.001). Higher mitotic index (≥ 7) in primary tumors was significantly (p < 0.001) associated with ALN involvement in SLN-positive cases, whereas higher Ki67 labeling index was not significantly correlated with SLN or ALN involvement. Lymphovascular invasion (LVI) in primary tumors was significantly correlated with SLN positivity (p < 0.001) but not with further ALN involvement or OS. Tumor size and LVI are predictive for SLN metastasis. Mitotic index, primary tumor size, and larger volume SLN involvement are determinants of further ALN involvement. SLN metastasis size over 6 mm is a strong predictor of further axillary involvement. OS is shorter in the presence of positive SLN.

A predictive tool to estimate the risk of axillary metastases in breast cancer patients with negative axillary ultrasound

BACKGROUND

Sentinel node biopsy (SNB) is the "gold standard" in axillary staging in clinically node-negative breast cancer patients. However, axillary treatment is undergoing a paradigm shift and studies are being conducted on whether SNB may be omitted in low-risk patients. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the risk factors for axillary metastases in breast cancer patients with negative preoperative axillary ultrasound.

METHODS

A total of 1,395 consecutive patients with invasive breast cancer and SNB formed the original patient series. A univariate analysis was conducted to assess risk factors for axillary metastases. Binary logistic regression analysis was conducted to form a predictive model based on the risk factors. The predictive model was first validated internally in a patient series of 566 further patients and then externally in a patient series of 2,463 patients from four other centers. All statistical tests were two-sided.

RESULTS

A total of 426 of the 1,395 (30.5 %) patients in the original patient series had axillary lymph node metastases. Histological size (P < 0.001), multifocality (P < 0.001), lymphovascular invasion (P < 0.001), and palpability of the primary tumor (P < 0.001) were included in the predictive model. Internal validation of the model produced an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) of 0.731 and external validation an AUC of 0.79.

CONCLUSIONS

We present a predictive model to assess the patient-specific probability of axillary lymph node metastases in patients with clinically node-negative breast cancer. The model performs well in internal and external validation. The model needs to be validated in each center before application to clinical use.

Cross-validation of three predictive tools for non-sentinel node metastases in breast cancer patients with micrometastases or isolated tumor cells in the sentinel node

BACKGROUND

We cross-validated three existing models for the prediction of non-sentinel node metastases in patients with micrometastases or isolated tumor cells (ITC) in the sentinel node, developed in Danish and Finnish cohorts of breast cancer patients, to find the best model to identify patients who might benefit from further axillary treatment.

MATERIAL AND METHOD

Based on 484 Finnish breast cancer patients with micrometastases or ITC in sentinel node a model has been developed for the prediction of non-sentinel node metastases. Likewise, two separate models have been developed in 1577 Danish patients with micrometastases and 304 Danish patients with ITC, respectively. The models were cross-validated in the opposite cohort.

RESULTS

The Danish model for micrometatases was accurate when tested in the Finnish cohort, with a slight change in AUC from 0.64 to 0.63. The AUC of the Finnish model decreased from 0.68 to 0.58 when tested in the Danish cohort, and the AUC of the Danish model for ITC decreased from 0.73 to 0.52, when tested in the Finnish cohort. The Danish micrometastatic model identified 14-22% of the patients as high-risk patients with over 30% risk of non-sentinel node metastases while less than 1% was identified by the Finish model. In contrast, the Finish model predicted a much larger proportion of patients being in the low-risk group with less than 10% risk of non-sentinel node metastases.

CONCLUSION

The Danish model for micrometastases worked well in predicting high risk of non-sentinel node metastases and was accurate under external validation.

Sentinel lymph node status and axillary lymph node dissection in the surgical treatment of breast cancer

Axillary lymph node dissection has been traditionally perceived as a therapeutic and a staging procedure and unselectively removes all axillary lymph nodes. There still remains some controversy as concerns the survival benefit associated with axillary clearance. Sentinel lymph node biopsy removes the most likely sites of regional metastases, the lymph nodes directly connected with the primary tumour. It allows a more accurate staging and a selective indication for clearing the axilla, restricting this to patients who may benefit of it. Axillary dissection was performed in all patients during the learning phase of sentinel lymphadenectomy, but later only patients with metastasis to a sentinel node underwent this operation. Currently, even some patients with minimal sentinel node involvement, including some with macrometastasis may skip axillary clearance. This review summarizes the changes that have occurred in the surgical management of the axilla, the evidences and controversies behind these changes, along with current recommendations. Orv. Hetil., 2014, 155(6), 203–215.

Robust and validated models to predict high risk of non-sentinel node metastases in breast cancer patients with micrometastases or isolated tumor cells in the sentinel node

BACKGROUND

Benefit from axillary lymph node dissection in sentinel node positive breast cancer patients is under debate. Based on data from 1820 Danish breast cancer patients operated in 2002-2008, we have developed two models to predict high risk of non-sentinel node metastases when micrometastases or isolated tumor cells are found in sentinel node. The aim of this study was to validate these models in an independent Danish dataset.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We included 720 breast cancer patients with micrometastases and 180 with isolated tumor cells in sentinel node operated in 2009-2010 from the Danish Breast Cancer Cooperative Group database. Accuracy of the models was tested in this cohort by calculating area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) as well as sensitivity and specificity.

RESULTS

AUC for the model for patients with micrometastases was comparable to AUC in the original cohort: 0.63 and 0.64, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity for predicting risk of non-sentinel node metastases over 30% was 0.36 and 0.81, respectively, in the validation cohort. AUC for the model for patients with isolated tumor cells decreased from 0.73 in the original cohort to 0.60 in the validation cohort. When dividing patients with isolated tumor cells into high and low risk of non-sentinel node metastases according to number of risk factors present, 37% in the high-risk group had non-sentinel node metastases. Specificity and sensitivity was 0.48 and 0.88, respectively, in the validation cohort when using this cut-point.

CONCLUSION

In this independent dataset, the model for patients with micrometastases was robust with accuracy similar to the original cohort, while the model for patients with isolated tumor cells was less accurate. The models may be used to identify patients where axillary lymph node dissection should still be considered.

Which nomogram is best for predicting non-sentinel lymph node metastasis in breast cancer patients? A meta-analysis

To present a systematic [corrected] review and meta-analysis to evaluate the nomograms developed to predict non-sentinel lymph node (NSLN) metastasis in breast cancer patients. We focused on the six nomograms (Cambridge, MSKCC, Mayo, MDA, Tenon, and Stanford) that are the most widely validated. The AUCs were converted to odds ratios for the meta-analysis. In total, the Cambridge, Mayo, MDA, MSKCC, Stanford, and Tenon models were validated in 2,156, 2,431, 843, 8,143, 3,700, and 3,648 patients, respectively. The pooled AUCs for the Cambridge, MDA, MSKCC, Mayo, Tenon, and Stanford models were 0.721, 0.706, 0.715, 0.728, 0.720, and 0.688, respectively. Subgroup analysis revealed that in populations with a higher micrometastasis rate in the SLNs, the Tenon and Stanford models had a significantly higher predictive accuracy. A meta-regression analysis revealed that the SLN micrometastasis rate, but not the NSLN-positivity rate, was associated with improved predictive accuracy in the Tenon and Stanford models. The performance of the MSKCC and Cambridge models was not influenced by these two factors. All of these prediction models perform better than random chance. The Stanford model seems to be relatively inferior to the other models. The accuracy of the Tenon and Stanford models is influenced by the tumor burden in the SLNs.

International multicenter tool to predict the risk of nonsentinel node metastases in breast cancer

BACKGROUND

Axillary treatment of breast cancer patients is undergoing a paradigm shift, as completion axillary lymph node dissections (ALNDs) are being questioned in the treatment of patients with tumor-positive sentinel nodes. This study aims to develop a novel multi-institutional predictive tool to calculate patient-specific risk of residual axillary disease after tumor-positive sentinel node biopsy.

METHODS

Breast cancer patients with a tumor-positive sentinel node and a completion ALND from five European centers formed the original patient series (N = 1000). Statistically significant variables predicting nonsentinel node involvement were identified in logistic regression analysis. A multivariable predictive model was developed and validated by area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC), first internally in 500 additional patients and then externally in 1068 patients from other centers. All statistical tests were two-sided.

RESULTS

Nine tumor- and sentinel node-specific variables were identified as statistically significant factors predicting nonsentinel node involvement in logistic regression analysis. A resulting predictive model applied to the internal validation series resulted in an AUC of 0.714 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.665 to 0.763). For the external validation series, the AUC was 0.719 (95% CI = 0.689 to 0.750). The model was well calibrated in the external validation series.

CONCLUSIONS

We present a novel, international, multicenter, predictive tool to assess the risk of additional axillary metastases after tumor-positive sentinel node biopsy in breast cancer. The predictive model performed well in internal and external validation but needs to be further studied in each center before application to clinical use.

Patients' choice on axillary lymph node dissection following sentinel lymph node micrometastasis--first report on prospective use of a nomogram in very low risk patients

The optimal locoregional treatment of patients diagnosed with sentinel node (SN) micrometastasis is controversial. A previously reported and validated nomogram was used to calculate the risk of non-SN metastasis in patients with SN micrometastasis over a period of 2 years. Patients were given detailed information about the risk, consequences and treatment options of non-SN involvement, the risk and potential complications of unnecessary completion axillary lymph node dissection (ALND), the imperfectness of the nomogram, and other factors that may influence their selection of further treatment. They also received a questionnaire to monitor factors influencing their decisions. Of the 25 patients participating in the study, 10 have opted for ALND. The only factor that seemed to influence their choice was fear from disease recurrence. Giving detailed information to SN micrometastatic patients is a patient-centered alternative to current recommendations on performing ALND in all such patients or omitting ALND in all of them.

High risk of non-sentinel node metastases in a group of breast cancer patients with micrometastases in the sentinel node

Axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) in breast cancer patients with positive sentinel nodes is under debate. We aimed to establish two models to predict non-sentinel node (NSN) metastases in patients with micrometastases or isolated tumor cells (ITC) in sentinel nodes, to guide the decision for ALND. A total of 1,577 breast cancer patients with micrometastases and 304 with ITC in sentinel nodes, treated by sentinel lymph node dissection and ALND in 2002-2008 were identified in the Danish Breast Cancer Cooperative Group database. Risk of NSN metastases was calculated according to clinicopathological variables in a logistic regression analysis. We identified tumor size, proportion of positive sentinel nodes, lymphovascular invasion, hormone receptor status and location of tumor in upper lateral quadrant of the breast as risk factors for NSN metastases in patients with micrometastases. A model based on these risk factors identified 5% of patients with a risk of NSN metastases on nearly 40%. The model was however unable to identify a subgroup of patients with a very low risk of NSN metastases. Among patients with ITC, we identified tumor size, age and proportion of positive sentinel nodes as risk factors. A model based on these risk factors identified 32% of patients with risk of NSN metastases on only 2%. Omission of ALND would be acceptable in this group of patients. In contrast, ALND may still be beneficial in the subgroup of patients with micrometastases and a high risk of NSN metastases.

Prediction of non-sentinel lymph node status in breast cancer patients with sentinel lymph node metastases: evaluation of the tenon score

INTRODUCTION

Current guidelines recommend completion axillary lymph node dissection (cALND) in case of a sentinel lymph node (SLN) metastasis larger than 0.2 mm. However, in 50%-65% of these patients, the non-SLNs contain no further metastases and cALND provides no benefit. Several nomograms and scoring systems have been suggested to predict the risk of metastases in non-SLNs. We have evaluated the Tenon score.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

In a retrospective review of the Swedish Sentinel Node Multicentre Cohort Study, risk factors for additional metastases were analysed in 869 SLN-positive patients who underwent cALND, using uni- and multivariate logistic regression models. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was drawn on the basis of the sensitivity and specificity of the Tenon score, and the area under the curve (AUC) was calculated.

RESULTS

Non-SLN metastases were identified in 270/869 (31.1%) patients. Tumour size and grade, SLN status and ratio between number of positive SLNs and total number of SLNs were significantly associated with non-SLN status in multivariate analyses. The area under the curve for the Tenon score was 0.65 (95% CI 0.61-0.69). In 102 patients with a primary tumour <2 cm, Elston grade 1-2 and SLN metastases ≤2 mm, the risk of non SLN metastasis was less than 10%.

CONCLUSION

The Tenon score performed inadequately in our material and we could, based on tumour and SLN characteristics, only define a very small group of patients in which negative non-sentinel nodes could be predicted.