Multi-Institutional Development and External Validation of a Nomogram for Prediction of Extrahepatic Recurrence After Curative-Intent Resection for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Prognostic significance of postoperative serological incomplete conversion of AFP and PIVKA-II after hepatic resection for hepatocellular carcinoma: a multicenter analysis of 1755 patients

BACKGROUND

The value of serum biomarkers, particularly alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and protein induced by vitamin K absence or antagonist-II (PIVKA-II), gains increasing attention in prognostic evaluation and recurrence monitoring for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study investigated the implications of serological incomplete conversion (SIC) of these 2 biomarkers as prognostic indicators for long-term outcomes after HCC resection.

METHODS

A multicenter observational study was conducted on a cohort of HCC patients presenting with AFP (>20 ng/mL) or PIVKA-II (>40 mAU/mL) positivity who underwent curative-intent resection. Based on their postoperative AFP and PIVKA-II levels at first postoperative follow-up (4~8 weeks after surgery), these patients were stratified into the serological incomplete conversion (SIC) and serological complete conversion (SCC) groups. The study endpoints were recurrence and overall survival (OS).

RESULTS

Among 1755 patients, 379 and 1376 were categorized as having SIC and SCC, respectively. The SIC group exhibited 1- and 5-year OS rates of 67.5% and 26.3%, with the corresponding recurrence rates of 53.2% and 79.0%, respectively; while the SCC group displayed 1- and 5-year OS rates of 95.8% and 62.5%, with the corresponding recurrence rates of 16.8% and 48.8%, respectively (both P < .001). Multivariate Cox regression analysis demonstrated that postoperative SIC was an independent risk factor for both increased recurrence (HR: 2.40, 95% CI, 2.04-2.81, P < .001) and decreased OS (HR: 2.69, 95% CI, 2.24-3.24, P < .001).

CONCLUSION

The results emphasize that postoperative incomplete conversion of either AFP or PIVKA-II is a significant prognostic marker, indicating a higher risk for adverse oncologic outcomes following HCC resection. This revelation has crucial implications for refining postoperative adjuvant therapy and surveillance strategies for HCC patients.

Establishing and Externally Validating a Hemoglobin, Albumin, Lymphocyte, and Platelet (HALP) Score-Based Nomogram for Predicting Early Recurrence in BCLC Stage 0/A Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients After Radical Liver Resection: A Multi-Center Study

Purpose

Early recurrence (ER) is associated with poor prognosis in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). In this study, we developed and externally validated a nomogram based on the hemoglobin, albumin, lymphocytes, and platelets (HALP) score to predict ER for patients with BCLC stage 0/A HCC who underwent radical liver resection.

Patients and Methods

A total of 808 BCLC stage 0/A HCC patients from six hospitals were included in this study, and they were assigned to a training cohort (n = 500) and an external validation cohort (n = 308). We used univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis to identify the independent risk factors for disease-free survival (DFS). We also established and externally validated a nomogram based on these risk predictors. The nomogram was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), the concordance index (C-index), the calibration curve, decision curve analysis (DCA), and Kaplan‒Meier analysis.

Results

Multivariate COX regression showed that HBV DNA ≥10,000 IU/mL (P < 0.001), HALP score ≤38.20 (P < 0.001), tumor size (P = 0.003), clinically significant portal hypertension (P = 0.001), Edmondson-Steiner grade (III-IV) (P = 0.007), satellite nodules (P < 0.001), and MVI (P = 0.001) were independent risk factors for post-operative tumor recurrence. The AUC of our nomogram for predicting the 2-year and 5-year DFS was 0.756 and 0.750, respectively, in the training cohort and 0.764 and 0.705, respectively, in the external validation cohort. We divided the patients into low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups according to the risk score calculated by the nomogram. There were statistically significant differences in the DFS and overall survival (OS) among the three groups of patients (P < 0.001).

Conclusion

We developed and externally validated a new nomogram, which is accurate and can predict ER in BCLC stage 0/A HCC patients after curative liver resection.

Development and Validation of a Prognostic Model to Predict Recurrence-Free Survival After Curative Resection for Perihilar Cholangiocarcinoma: A Multicenter Study

Background

Recurrence is the main cause of death in perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (pCCA) patients after surgery. Identifying patients with a high risk of recurrence is important for decision-making regarding neoadjuvant therapy to improve long-term outcomes.

Aim

The objective of this study was to develop and validate a prognostic model to predict recurrence-free survival (RFS) after curative resection of pCCA.

Methods

Patients following curative resection for pCCA from January 2008 to January 2016 were identified from a multicenter database. Using random assignment, 70% of patients were assigned to the training cohort, and the remaining 30% were assigned to the validation cohort. Independent predictors of RFS after curative resection for pCCA were identified and used to construct a prognostic model. The predictive performance of the model was assessed using calibration curves and the C-index.

Results

A total of 341 patients were included. The median overall survival (OS) was 22 months, and the median RFS was 14 months. Independent predictors associated with RFS included lymph node involvement, macrovascular invasion, microvascular invasion, maximum tumor size, tumor differentiation, and carbohydrate antigen 19-9. The model incorporating these factors to predict 1-year RFS demonstrated better calibration and better performance than the 8th American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system in both the training and validation cohorts (C-indexes: 0.723 vs. 0.641; 0.743 vs. 0.607).

Conclusions

The prognostic model could identify patients at high risk of recurrence for pCCA to inform patients and surgeons, help guide decision-making for postoperative adjuvant therapy, and improve survival.

State-of-the-art surgery for hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most commonly diagnosed primary liver tumor with an increasing incidence worldwide. Management of patients with HCC is largely dictated by the presence of cirrhosis, disease stage, underlying liver function, and patient performance status.

PURPOSE

We provide an update on key aspects of surgical treatment options for patients with HCC. RESULTS & CONCLUSIONS: Liver resection and transplantation remain cornerstone treatment options for patients with early-stage disease and constitute the only potentially curative options for HCC. Selection of patients for surgical treatment should include a thorough evaluation of tumor characteristics and biology, as well as evidence-based use of various available treatment options to achieve optimal long-term outcomes for patients with HCC.