A Model to Predict Treatment Failure in Patients Undergoing Upfront Surgery for Resectable Colorectal Liver Metastases

Development of a novel calculator to predict gonadotropin dose and oocyte yield in oocyte cryopreservation cycles

PURPOSE

To develop a predictive model for estimating the total dose of gonadotropins and the number mature oocytes in planned oocyte cryopreservation cycles.

METHODS

In this retrospective study, oocyte cryopreservation cycles recorded in the Society for Assisted Reproductive Technology Clinic Outcome Reporting System Database from 2013 to 2018 were analyzed. Bivariate copula additive models for location, scale, and shape were performed to create a predictive model for estimating total dose of gonadotropins and number of mature oocytes.

RESULTS

A total of 15,806 oocyte cryopreservation cycles between 2013 and 2018 were included in the analysis. The average age of participants was 35.4 years, the mean duration of stimulation was 11.8 days, and the average number of mature oocytes retrieved was 11.8. The treatment dose increased with age, FSH levels, BMI ≥ 35 kg/m2, smoking, and history of diminished ovarian reserve, while it decreased with increasing AMH, ovulatory disorder, and BMI < 25 kg/m2. The number of mature oocytes retrieved was positively correlated with AMH and negatively correlated with age, FSH levels, Asian race, and diminished ovarian reserve. With a maximum gonadotropin dosage of 450 IU per day for 12 ± 3 days of stimulation and a tolerance level of six mature oocytes, the predictive model achieved 70% accuracy. An interactive version of the equation was created as an online tool.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed a predictive model to estimate the total treatment dosage and the number of mature oocytes. This calculator, utilizing objective patient variables, can assist in patient counseling prior to planned oocyte cryopreservation cycles.

Proteogenomic Characterization of Early Intrahepatic Recurrence after Curative-Intent Treatment of Colorectal Liver Metastases

Clinical and pathological factors are insufficient to accurately identify patients at risk of early recurrence after curative-intent treatment of colorectal liver metastases (CRLM). This study aimed to identify candidate prognostic proteogenomic biomarkers for early intrahepatic recurrence after curative-intent resection of CRLM. Patients diagnosed with intrahepatic recurrence within 6 months of liver resection were categorized as the "early recurrence" group, while those who achieved a recurrence-free status for 10 years were designated as "durable remission". Comprehensive genomic and proteomic profiling of fresh frozen samples from these prognostically distinct groups was performed using the TruSight Oncology 500 assay and label-free data-dependent acquisition liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry. Genetic alterations were identified in 117 of the 523 profiled genes in patients with early recurrence. The most common somatic mutations linked to early recurrence were TP53 (88%), APC (71%), KRAS (38%), and SMAD4 (21%). SMAD4 alterations were absent in samples from patients with a durable remission. Calponin-2, versican core protein, glutathione peroxidase 3, fibulin-5, and amyloid-β precursor protein were upregulated more than 2-fold in early recurrence. Exploratory analysis of these proteogenomic biomarkers suggests that SMAD4, calponin-2, and glutathione peroxidase 3 may have the potential to predict early recurrence, enabling improved prognostication and precision oncology in CRLM.

RAS mutation associated with short surgically controllable period in colorectal liver metastases: a retrospective study

BACKGROUND

The prognostic implications of the RAS status in colorectal cancer liver metastasis (CRLM) remain unclear. This study investigated the prognostic significance of RAS status after curative hepatectomy, focusing on surgical controllability.

METHODS

This retrospective study included liver-only CRLM patients who underwent the first hepatectomy between 2015 and 2022 at the National Cancer Center Hospital. Recurrence-free survival (RFS), surgically controllable period (SCP), and overall survival (OS) were compared between RAS wild-type (RAS-wt) and mutant (RAS-mt) patients. Multivariate analyses were conducted to identify independent prognostic factors for each outcome and independent risk factors for less than 1 year SCP.

RESULTS

A total of 150 patients were evaluated, comprising 63 patients with RAS-mt status. There was no significant difference in RFS between RAS-mt and RAS-wt (7.00 vs. 8.03 months, p = 0.48). RAS-mt patients exhibited worse SCP (11.80 vs.21.13 months, p < 0.001) and OS (44.03 vs. 70.03 months, p < 0.001) compared to RAS-wt. Multivariate analysis identified RAS-mt as an independent prognostic factor for both OS (hazard ratio [HR]: 3.37, p < 0.001) and SCP (HR: 2.20, p < 0.001), and as an independent risk factor for less than 1 year of SCP (odds ratio, 2.31; p = 0.03).

CONCLUSIONS

CRLM with RAS mutations should be considered for strict surgical indications with preoperative chemotherapy and thorough examination, considering the possibility of short SCP.

Pre-hepatectomy dynamic circulating tumor DNA to predict pathologic response to preoperative chemotherapy and post-hepatectomy recurrence in patients with colorectal liver metastases

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the predictive value of pre-hepatectomy dynamic circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) on pathologic response to preoperative chemotherapy and recurrence after liver resection for colorectal liver metastases (CRLM).

BACKGROUND

Pathologic response is a predictor of clinical outcomes for patients undergoing hepatectomy for CRLM. Postoperative ctDNA has been proven to be sensitive for recurrence detection. However, few studies investigate the impact of pre-hepatectomy ctDNA on pathologic response and recurrence.

METHODS

Patients with potential resectable CRLM underwent preoperative chemotherapy and hepatectomy between 2018 and 2021 was considered for inclusion. Plasma ctDNA was collected before and after preoperative chemotherapy. Pathologic response was analyzed for all patients after liver resection. Recurrence free survival was compared between patients with different ctDNA status and different pathologic response. The relation between ctDNA and pathologic response was also analyzed.

RESULTS

A total of 114 patients were included. ctDNA was detectable in 108 of 114 patients (94.7%) before chemotherapy, in 56 of 114 patients (49.1%) after chemotherapy. Patients with ctDNA positive at baseline and negative after chemotherapy had significantly longer RFS (median RFS 17 vs 7 months, p = 0.001) and HRFS (median HRFS unreached vs 8 months, p < 0.001) than those with ctDNA persistently positive after chemotherapy. Two patients (1.6%) had a pathologic complete response and 56 patients (45.2%) had a pathologic major response. Post-chemotherapy ctDNA- was associated with improved major pathologic response (53.4% vs 32.1%, p = 0.011). In the multivariable analysis, ctDNA- after chemotherapy (HR 0.51, 95% CI 0.28-0.93), major pathologic response (HR 0.34, 95% CI 0.19-0.62) and surgery combined with radiofrequency ablation (HR 2.62, 95% CI 1.38-5.00) were independently associated with RFS (all p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Pre-hepatectomy dynamic monitoring of ctDNA could predict pathologic response to preoperative chemotherapy and post-hepatectomy recurrence in CRLM patients. Negative ctDNA after preoperative chemotherapy was associated with better tumor regression grade and recurrence-free survival, which might be used to guide pre-hepatectomy chemotherapy and predict prognosis.

Predicting treatment failure in stage III colon cancer patients after radical surgery

Purpose

The aim to assess treatment failure in patients with stage III colon cancer who underwent radical surgery and was analyzed using the nomogram.

Methods

Clinical factors and survival outcomes for stage III colon cancer patients registered in the SEER database from 2018 to 2019 were analyzed, with patients split into training and testing cohorts (7:3 ratio). A total of 360 patients from the First Affiliated Hospital of Longyan served as an external validation cohort. Independent predictors of treatment failure were identified using logistic regression analyses. The nomograms was evaluated by concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, and the area under the curve (AUC), decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curves (CIC) assessed the clinical utility of nomograms versus TNM staging.

Results

The study included 4,115 patients with stage III colon cancer. Multivariate logistic analysis age, tumor site, pT stage, pN stage, chemotherapy, pretreatment CEA levels, number of harvested lymph nodes, perineural invasion and marital status were identified as independent risk factors for treatment failure. The C-indices for the training and testing sets were 0.853 and 0.841. Validation by ROC and calibration curves confirmed the stability and reliability of the model. DCA showed that the net clinical effect of the histogram was superior to that of the TNM staging system, while CIC highlighted the potentially large clinical impact of the model.

Conclusions

The developed Nomogram provides a powerful and accurate tool for clinicians to assess the risk of treatment failure after radical surgery in patients with stage III colon cancer.

Clinical Prediction Models for Prognosis of Colorectal Liver Metastases: A Comprehensive Review of Regression-Based and Machine Learning Models

Colorectal liver metastasis (CRLM) is a disease entity that warrants special attention due to its high frequency and potential curability. Identification of "high-risk" patients is increasingly popular for risk stratification and personalization of the management pathway. Traditional regression-based methods have been used to derive prediction models for these patients, and lately, focus has shifted to artificial intelligence-based models, with employment of variable supervised and unsupervised techniques. Multiple endpoints, like overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS) and development or recurrence of postoperative complications have all been used as outcomes in these studies. This review provides an extensive overview of available clinical prediction models focusing on the prognosis of CRLM and highlights the different predictor types incorporated in each model. An overview of the modelling strategies and the outcomes chosen is provided. Specific patient and treatment characteristics included in the models are discussed in detail. Model development and validation methods are presented and critically appraised, and model performance is assessed within a proposed framework.

Somatic Mutations in Surgically Treated Colorectal Liver Metastases: An Overview

Colorectal cancer is the second most common cause of cancer death in the United States, and up to half of patients develop colorectal liver metastases (CRLMs). Notably, somatic genetic mutations, such as mutations in RAS, BRAF, mismatch repair (MMR) genes, TP53, and SMAD4, have been shown to play a prognostic role in patients with CRLM. This review summarizes and appraises the current literature regarding the most relevant somatic mutations in surgically treated CRLM by not only reviewing representative studies, but also providing recommendations for areas of future research. In addition, advancements in genetic testing and an increasing emphasis on precision medicine have led to a more nuanced understanding of these mutations; thus, more granular data for each mutation are reviewed when available. Importantly, such knowledge can pave the way for precision medicine with the ultimate goal of improving patient outcomes.

Preoperative chemotherapy in upfront resectable colorectal liver metastases: New elements for an old dilemma?

The use of preoperative or "neoadjuvant" chemotherapy (NAC) has long been controversial for resectable colorectal liver metastases (CRLM). The European Society of Medical Oncology (ESMO) 2023 guidelines on metastatic colorectal cancer (CRC) indicate a combination of surgical/technical and oncologic/prognostic criteria as the two determinants for allocating patients to NAC or upfront hepatectomy. However, surgical and technical criteria have evolved, and oncologic prognostic criteria date from the pre-modern chemotherapy era and lack prospective validation. The traditional literature is interpreted as not supporting the use of NAC because several studies fail to demonstrate a benefit in overall survival (OS) compared to upfront surgery; however, OS may not be the most appropriate endpoint to consider. Moreover, the commonly quoted studies against NAC contain many limitations that may explain why NAC failed to demonstrate its value. The query of the recent literature focused primarily on other aspects than OS, such as surgical technique, the impact of side effects of chemotherapy, the histological growth pattern of metastases, or the detection of circulating tumor DNA, shows data that support a more widespread use of NAC. These should prompt a critical reappraisal of the use of NAC, leading to a more precise selection of patients who could benefit from it.

Combined hepatic resection and ablation for high burden of colorectal liver metastases demonstrates safety and durable survival

BACKGROUND

Hepatic resection (HR) and thermal ablation of Colorectal Liver Metastases (CRLM) have each individually demonstrated safety and survival benefit. We sought to provide our experience with the combination of HR + ablation within one operation for patients with multiple CRLM.

METHODS

Review of a single institution database of patients who underwent HR + ablation between 2010 and 2019.

RESULTS

161 patients were identified who underwent HR + ablation for isolated CRLM (mean age: 59, male 63.4%). 125 (77.6%) patients had bilobar disease and 92 (57.1%) patients had ≥5 tumors. 28 (17.4%) patients experienced minor (grade 1 or 2) complications while 20 (12.4%) had grade 3-5 complications. Patients who underwent simultaneous colon resection with HR + ablation had a higher complication rate (22 of 47, 46.8%) than those undergoing HR + ablation only (26 of 114, 22.8%, p = 0.002). Median and 5-year OS for all patients undergoing HR + ablation was 38.2 months and 33.2%, respectively. 5-year hepatic recurrence free survival was 23.5%. Patients with 5 or more tumors demonstrated no difference in median survival compared to those with fewer than 5 tumors (37.0 months vs 38.4 months, p = 0.326).

CONCLUSIONS

In this population of CRLM patients with a relatively high burden of disease, HR + ablation demonstrated an acceptable safety profile as well as durable long-term survival.