Predicting atrial fibrillation after cardiac surgery: a scoping review of associated factors and systematic review of existing prediction models

INTRODUCTION

Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is common after cardiac surgery and associated with increased hospital length of stay, patient morbidity and mortality. We aimed to identify factors associated with POAF and evaluate the accuracy of available POAF prediction models.

METHODS

We screened articles from Ovid MEDLINE® and PubMed Central® (PMC) and included studies that evaluated risk factors associated with POAF or studies that designed or validated POAF prediction models. We only included studies in cardiac surgical patients with sample size n ⩾ 50 and a POAF outcome group ⩾20. We summarised factors that were associated with POAF and assessed prediction model performance by reviewing reported calibration and discriminative ability.

RESULTS

We reviewed 232 studies. Of these, 142 fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Age was frequently found to be associated with POAF, while most other variables showed contradictory findings, or were assessed in few studies. Overall, 15 studies specifically developed and/or validated 12 prediction models. Of these, all showed poor discrimination or absent calibration in predicting POAF in externally validated cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

Except for age, reporting of factors associated with POAF is inconsistent and often contradictory. Prediction models have low discrimination, missing calibration statistics, are at risk of bias and show limited clinical applicability. This suggests the need for studies that prospectively collect AF relevant data in large cohorts and then proceed to validate findings in external data sets.

The value of atrial electromechanical delay in predicting atrial fibrillation development after coronary artery bypass surgery

OBJECTIVE

Predicting postoperative atrial fibrillation (PoAF) in the preoperative period will provide a serious advantage in preventing the morbidity and mortality associated with this arrhythmia and in planning the treatment. In this study, we investigated the value of atrial electromechanical delay (AEMD) in predicting the development of PoAF.

METHODS

A total of 93 patients who underwent isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) operation were included in this prospective study. Patients' demographic characteristics, laboratory parameters, echocardiographic data, and AEMD durations that could be measured by the co-use of electrocardiography and echocardiography were recorded. The patients at sinus rhythm during the postoperative period were identified as "Group 1", and those who developed PoAF were identified as "Group 2".

RESULTS

PoAF incidence was 26.88% (n = 25). Left ventricle (LV) lateral AEMD, LV medial AEMD, right ventricle lateral AEMD, and left atrium (LA) lateral AEMD durations of Group 2 were significantly higher than Group 1 (p < 0.001, p = 0.004, p = 0.004, p < 0.001; respectively). In Univariate Logistic Regression Analysis, the age, hypertension, LA maximum volume, LA lateral AEMD and pulmonary artery pressure were significantly associated with PoAF development (p = 0.01, p = 0.004, p = 0.004, p = 0.001, p = 0.01; respectively). However, only LA lateral AEMD was found as an independent predictive factor for the development of PoAF in the Multivariate Logistic Regression Analysis (OR:1.03, 95% CI:1.001-1.06, p = 0.04). AUC was .741 for LA lateral AEMD in ROC Curve Analysis (95% CI: .633-.849, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The development of PoAF can be predicted by AEMD durations measured in the preoperative period in patients undergoing isolated CABG.

Echocardiography-derived total atrial conduction time (PA-TDI duration): risk stratification and guidance in atrial fibrillation management

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a major cause of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. To early detect and to avoid AF-related complications, several cardiac imaging modalities and approaches aim to quantify the severity of the underlying atrial cardiomyopathy (i.e., the extent of atrial remodeling). However, most established cardiac imaging modalities just incorporate single components of atrial remodeling and do not reflect the complete multifactorial process, which may contribute to their limited predictive value. Echocardiography-derived PA-TDI duration is a sophisticated echocardiographic parameter to assess total atrial conduction time and directly reflects both electrical and structural changes to the atria. Therefore, PA-TDI duration provides a more comprehensive quantification of the extent of atrial remodeling than other imaging modalities. In this article we review the role of PA-TDI duration as a marker of atrial remodeling and summarize the available data on PA-TDI duration to identify patients at risk for AF, as well as to guide AF management. Moreover, we discuss how to assess PA-TDI duration and provide recommendations on the implementation of PA-TDI duration into routine clinical care.

Role of pre-operative transthoracic echocardiography in predicting post-operative atrial fibrillation after cardiac surgery: a systematic review of the literature and meta-analysis

AIMS

This systematic review and meta-analysis aims to evaluate the role of pre-operative transthoracic echocardiography in predicting post-operative atrial fibrillation (POAF) after cardiac surgery.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Electronic databases were searched for studies reporting on pre-operative echocardiographic predictors of POAF in PubMed, Cochrane library, and Embase. A meta-analysis of echocardiographic predictors of POAF that were identified by at least five different publications was performed. Forty-three publications were included in this systematic review. Echocardiographic predictors for POAF included surrogate parameters for total atrial conduction time (TACT), structural cardiac changes, and functional disturbances. Meta-analysis showed that prolonged pre-operative PA-TDI interval [5 studies, Cohen's d = 1.4, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.9-1.9], increased left atrial volume indexed for body surface area (LAVI) (23 studies, Cohen's d = 0.8, 95% CI 0.6-1.0), and reduced peak atrial longitudinal strain (PALS) (5 studies, Cohen's d = 1.4, 95% CI 1.0-1.8), were associated with POAF incidence. Left atrial volume indexed for body surface was the most important predicting factor in patients without a history of AF. These parameters remained important predictors of POAF in heterogeneous populations with variable age and comorbidities such as coronary artery disease and valvular disease.

CONCLUSION

This meta-analysis shows that increased TACT, increased LAVI, and reduced PALS are valuable parameters for predicting POAF in the early post-operative phase in a large variety of patients.

Impact of Transcatheter Device Closure of Atrial Septal Defect on Atrial Arrhythmias Propensity in Young Adults

Atrial septal defect (ASD) is a condition that requires early intervention because of the consequences over the right-side heart. Chronic atrial stretching promotes atrial conduction delay and the imbalance of the conduction homogeneity, which lead to the propensity to atrial arrhythmias (AA). We aim to evaluate the impact of transcatheter closure of ASD on atrial vulnerability markers leading to late AA in young adults. We conducted a prospective, longitudinal study in one hundred patients (mean age 25.2 ± 5.4 years) who underwent transcatheter closure of ASD at Cardiocentro Pediátrico William Soler. P-wave maximum (P_max) and P-wave dispersion (P_d) were analyzed from 12-lead electrocardiogram. Left-side and right-side intraatrial and interatrial electromechanical delay (EMD) were measured with tissue Doppler imaging. Both electrocardiographic and echocardiographic analyses were performed during the study period. Compared to baseline, there was a significant reduction in P max (p ≤ 0.001) and P_d (p ≤ 0.001) after 3 months of procedure. All atrial electromechanical coupling parameters significantly reduced at 6 months of ASD closure and tend to remain at lower values till the last evaluation. Over 9.2 ± 1.6 years of follow-up, 15 subjects (15%) developed AA, of which intraatrial reentrant tachycardia (66.6%) became the main rhythm disturbance. Intra-right atrial EMD ≥ 16 ms (HR 4.08, 95% CI 1.15-14.56; p = 0.03) and P_d 45 ms (HR 1.66, 95% CI 1.06-2.59; p = 0.02) were identified as predictors of late AA. Transcatheter device closure of ASD in young adults promotes a significant reduction of electrocardiographic and echocardiographic markers of AA vulnerability, which persist during the long-term follow-up. Nevertheless, P_d and interatrial EMD were identified as independent risk factors of AA.

Incidence of postoperative atrial fibrillation in transdermal β-blocker patch users is lower than that in oral β-blocker users after cardiac and/or thoracic aortic surgery

OBJECTIVE

Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) after open heart surgery is associated with a high risk of mortality and morbidity. Although oral β-blockers are usually recommended to prevent POAF, the efficacy of a transdermal β-blocker patch in preventing POAF is unclear. We compared the incidence of POAF between users of oral and transdermal bisoprolol.

METHODS

We investigated 108 patients who underwent cardiac and/or thoracic aortic surgery between April 2016 and February 2018. We compared perioperative clinical and hemodynamic variables between 49 patients treated with a transdermal bisoprolol patch and 59 patients treated with an oral bisoprolol fumarate.

RESULTS

POAF occurred in 24% of patients in the transdermal and in 46% of patients in the oral bisoprolol groups (p = 0.027). No intergroup difference was observed in in-hospital mortality, perioperative blood pressures and heart rates, and other morbidities. Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that the use of transdermal bisoprolol was independently associated with a lower rate of POAF (odds ratio 0.21, 95% confidence interval 0.05-0.84, p = 0.027).

CONCLUSIONS

A transdermal bisoprolol patch is an effective and safe β-blocker drug delivery system. The incidence of POAF in this group was lower than that in users of oral bisoprolol.

Echocardiographic predictors of atrial fibrillation after mitral valve replacement

Objectives

Detection of the echocardiographic predictors of post-operative atrial fibrillation in patients with rheumatic mitral valve disease undergoing mitral valve replacement.

Methods

The study included 50 patients with rheumatic mitral valve disease undergoing mitral valve replacement. Preoperative assessment included standard two-dimensional echocardiography to assess LA diameter, volume, and emptying fraction, LV volume and ejection fraction. TDI derived velocity, strain of the left atrium and speckle tracking to assess left ventricular function then postoperative follow up for 1 month for occurrence of atrial fibrillation.

Results

The incidence of postoperative AF was 44%; these patients were significantly older (P = 0.001) and show higher prevalence of DM (P = 0.001) and HTN (P = 0.001). Also, LA diameters (antero-posterior, transverse and longitudinal) and LA volumes (maximal and minimal) were increased (P < 0.001), but no difference in LA emptying fraction (P > 0.05). Systolic LA strain and left ventricular global longitudinal strain were significantly reduced in those patients (P value <0.001). Echocardiographic predictors of AF were LA systolic strain (P value <0.001) and LV global longitudinal strain (P value = 0.003). Cutoff value for systolic LA strain ≤23 had sensitivity 90.91% and specificity 93.33% in predicting POAF. While, left ventricular global longitudinal strain ≤−14.9% had sensitivity 63.6% and specificity 100.0% in predicting AF.

Conclusion

LA systolic strain and LV global longitudinal strain were significant predictors of POAF. Echocardiographic parameters can identify patients at greater risk of developing POAF who can benefit from preventive measure and guide the selection of prosthesis.