Long-Term Predictors of Thromboembolic Events in Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation Patients Undergoing Electrical Cardioversion

Comprehensive comparison of stroke risk score performance: a systematic review and meta-analysis among 6 267 728 patients with atrial fibrillation

AIMS

Multiple risk scores to predict ischaemic stroke (IS) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) have been developed. This study aims to systematically review these scores, their validations and updates, assess their methodological quality, and calculate pooled estimates of the predictive performance.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We searched PubMed and Web of Science for studies developing, validating, or updating risk scores for IS in AF patients. Methodological quality was assessed using the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST). To assess discrimination, pooled c-statistics were calculated using random-effects meta-analysis. We identified 19 scores, which were validated and updated once or more in 70 and 40 studies, respectively, including 329 validations and 76 updates-nearly all on the CHA2DS2-VASc and CHADS2. Pooled c-statistics were calculated among 6 267 728 patients and 359 373 events of IS. For the CHA2DS2-VASc and CHADS2, pooled c-statistics were 0.644 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.635-0.653] and 0.658 (0.644-0.672), respectively. Better discriminatory abilities were found in the newer risk scores, with the modified-CHADS2 demonstrating the best discrimination [c-statistic 0.715 (0.674-0.754)]. Updates were found for the CHA2DS2-VASc and CHADS2 only, showing improved discrimination. Calibration was reasonable but available for only 17 studies. The PROBAST indicated a risk of methodological bias in all studies.

CONCLUSION

Nineteen risk scores and 76 updates are available to predict IS in patients with AF. The guideline-endorsed CHA2DS2-VASc shows inferior discriminative abilities compared with newer scores. Additional external validations and data on calibration are required before considering the newer scores in clinical practice.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

ID CRD4202161247 (PROSPERO).

Predictors of left atrial appendage stunning after electrical cardioversion in patients with atrial fibrillation

The transient left atrial appendage (LAA) dysfunction after electrical cardioversion (CV), which is called as LAA-stunning, was found to be an important etiology of thrombus formation. The aim of the present study was to investigate the risk factors of LAA-stunning. This study included 134 patients who underwent catheter ablation for non-paroxysmal, non-valvular, and symptomatic atrial fibrillation (AF). Internal-CV was performed, and LAA emptying fraction (LAA-EF) was assessed using LAA-angiogram before and just after CV. LAA-stunning (defined as 10% reduction of LAA-EF after CV) was observed in 45/134 patients (34%). Patients in LAA-stunning group had longer duration of AF prior to CV, higher brain natriuretic peptide (BNP), higher prevalence of patients taking calcium blocker, larger left atrial (LA) diameter, elevated E wave, and larger LA volume than those in non LAA-stunning group. Multivariate analysis showed that longer duration of AF prior to CV (p = 0.015, OR 1.033 for 1 month extend, 95% CI 1.006-1.073) and elevated BNP (p = 0.038, OR 1.041 for each 10 pg/mL increase, 95% CI 1.001-1.009) were associated with LAA-stunning. In addition, all patients were divided into four groups based on the combination between duration of AF prior to CV and BNP; group 1 (low BNP/short-lasting AF), group 2 (high BNP/short-lasting AF), group 3 (low BNP/long-lasting AF), and group 4 (high BNP/long-lasting AF). The rate of LAA-stunning was the highest in the group 4 (55.6%). Elevated BNP and long duration of AF were associated with LAA stunning after electrical cardioversion.

Advances in anticoagulation management of patients undergoing cardioversion of nonvalvular atrial fibrillation

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a major cause of stroke. The restoration of sinus rhythm through cardioversion, either chemical or electrical is a common practice. Interestingly, there is an incremental increase from the baseline risk for embolisation in the immediate post-cardioversion period, with most events occurring within 10 days from cardioversion. Especially patients with recent onset AF show the lowest rates of antithrombotic therapy, while having a high stroke risk. Despite the increased risk for embolisation, anticoagulation in patients undergoing cardioversion of atrial fibrillation is often inadequate. Moreover, since the implementation of non-vitamin K antagonists oral anticoagulants (DOACs) there are several therapeutic approaches for pericardioversion anticoagulant therapy and not all suits to all patients. In addition, the extensive use of transesophageal echocardiography provides an alternative strategy, especially useful for patients of high haemorrhagic risk. In this review article, we aim to provide an update on the anticoagulation strategies for patients undergoing cardioversion of non-valvular atrial fibrillation in the advent of the use of DOACs.