Use of CHA2DS2-VASc Score to Predict New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Patients ― Large-Scale Longitudinal Study ―

CHA2DS2-VASc score stratifies mortality risk in heart failure patients aged 75 years and older with and without atrial fibrillation

Background

During the last decade, the CHA₂DS₂-VASc score has been associated with adverse clinical outcomes in several cardiovascular (CV) and non-cardiovascular diseases beyond atrial fibrillation (AF). Whether the CHA₂DS₂-VASc score stratifies mortality risk in elderly patients with AF and without AF is not well established.

Methods

All consecutive patients aged ≥ 75 yrs hospitalized due to heart failure (HF), between January 2020 and November 2020, were retrospectively enrolled. All patients underwent physical examination, blood tests, electrocardiography and conventional transthoracic echocardiography. Primary endpoint was all-cause mortality, while secondary endpoint was the composite of all-cause mortality + rehospitalizations for all causes over mid-term follow-up.

Results

The study included 261 HF patients (86.3 ± 6.4 years, 60.5% females). 85 AF and 176 non-AF patients were separately analyzed. Compared to non-AF patients, those with AF had significantly higher CHA₂DS₂-VASc score (5.6 ± 1.4 vs 5.1 ± 1.4, p = 0.007) and lower ejection fraction (47.4 ± 16.5 vs 56.7 ± 15.1%, p < 0.001). Mean follow-up was 1.7 ± 0.5 yrs. During follow-up, 96 patients died (58.3% due to CV causes) and 79 were rehospitalized (58.2% due to CV causes). CHA₂DS₂-VASc score was independently associated with all-cause mortality in whole study population (HR 1.61, 95% CI 1.36–1.92) and in both AF (HR 1.41, 95% CI 1.09–1.82) and non-AF patients (HR 1.84, 95% CI 1.40–2.40). CHA₂DS₂-VASc score also predicted the secondary endpoint in the same study groups. CHA₂DS₂-VASc score ≥ 5 was the best cut-off value for predicting both outcomes.

Conclusion

At mid-term follow-up, a CHA₂DS₂-VASc score ≥ 5 predicts increased risk of all-cause mortality and re-hospitalizations for all causes in elderly HF patients, regardless of AF.

Utility of the CHA2DS2-VASc score for predicting ischaemic stroke in patients with or without atrial fibrillation: a systematic review and meta-analysis

AIMS

Anticoagulants are the mainstay treatment for stroke prevention in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF), and the CHA2DS2-VASc score is widely used to guide anticoagulation therapy in this cohort. However, utility of CHA2DS2-VASc in NVAF patients is debated, primarily because it is a vascular scoring system, which does not incorporate atrial fibrillation related parameters. Therefore, we conducted a meta-analysis to estimate the discrimination ability of CHA2DS2-VASc in predicting ischaemic stroke overall, and in subgroups of patients with or without NVAF.

METHODS AND RESULTS

PubMed and Embase databases were searched till June 2020 for published articles that assessed the discrimination ability of CHA2DS2-VASc, as measured by C-statistics, during mid-term (2-5 years) and long-term (>5 years) follow-up. Summary estimates were reported as random effects C-statistics with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Seventeen articles were included in the analysis. Nine studies (n = 453 747 patients) reported the discrimination ability of CHA2DS2-VASc in NVAF patients, and 10 studies (n = 138 262 patients) in patients without NVAF. During mid-term follow-up, CHA2DS2-VASc predicted stroke with modest discrimination in the overall cohort [0.67 (0.65-0.69)], with similar discrimination ability in patients with NVAF [0.65 (0.63-0.68)] and in those without NVAF [0.69 (0.68-0.71)] (P-interaction = 0.08). Similarly, at long-term follow-up, CHA2DS2-VASc had modest discrimination [0.66 (0.63-0.69)], which was consistent among patients with NVAF [0.63 (0.54-0.71)] and those without NVAF [0.67 (0.64-0.70)] (P-interaction = 0.39).

CONCLUSION

This meta-analysis suggests that the discrimination power of the CHA2DS2-VASc score in predicting ischaemic stroke is modest, and is similar in the presence or absence of NVAF. More accurate stroke prediction models are thus needed for the NVAF population.