Circumcision as a primary HIV preventive: extrapolating from the available data

Billions of dollars to circumcise millions of African males as an HIV infection prevention have been sought, yet the effectiveness of circumcision has not been demonstrated. Data from 109 populations comparing HIV prevalence and incidence in men based on circumcision status were evaluated using meta-regression. The impact on the association between circumcision and HIV incidence/prevalence of the HIV risk profile of the population, the circumcision rates within the population and whether the population was in Africa were assessed. No significant difference in the risk of HIV infection based on the circumcision status was seen in general populations. Studies of high-risk populations and populations with a higher prevalence of male circumcision reported significantly greater odds ratios (odds of intact man having HIV) (p < .0001). When adjusted for the impact of a high-risk population and the circumcision rate of the population, the baseline odds ratio was 0.78 (95% CI = 0.56-1.09). No consistent association between presence of HIV infection and circumcision status of adult males in general populations was found. When adjusted for other factors, having a foreskin was not a significant risk factor. This undermines the justification for using circumcision as a primary preventive for HIV infection.

AIDS epidemiology in Africa: a changing of the guard

With recent implementation of studies specifically designed to empirically assess the contribution of both sexual and blood-borne exposures to local HIV transmission in sub-Saharan Africa, and with the arrival of a new generation of investigators, a picture of HIV transmission routes of improved validity is emerging. Seven years ago the International Journal of STD & AIDS (IJSA) began actively encouraging reexamination of the prevailing view that penile-vaginal sex was driving African HIV epidemics, welcoming debate via manuscript submission and presentation of fresh scientific evidence. Although the IJSA-published dissenting views have largely been ignored, dismissed or fiercely resisted by established HIV researchers and allied health agencies, new approaches may yet elicit more rational, evidence-based responses. Several such contributions appear in IJSA's present theme issue on aspects of HIV epidemiology in Africa. The focus on recent empiric data, rather than on modelling or speculation, no longer leaves reasonable doubt that sexual behaviours are insufficient to explain 'Why Africa?' It is fitting that this progress was encouraged, from beginning to end, by long-time, and now departing IJSA Editor-in-Chief, Dr Wallace Dinsmore.