Meteorological Factors Related to Emergency Admission of Elderly Stroke Patients in Shanghai: Analysis with a Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network

Comprehensive evaluation of the combined extracts of Epimedii Folium and Ligustri Lucidi Fructus for PMOP in ovariectomized rats based on MLP-ANN methods

ETHNOPHARMACOLOGICAL RELEVANCE

Kidney deficiency is the main pathogenesis of osteoporosis based on the theory of "kidney governing bones" in traditional Chinese medicine (TCM). Osteoporosis is a systemic disease; kidney deficiency influences the growth, aging and reproduction of human body, reflecting in endocrine, nerve, immunity, metabolism and other functions. Multi-target drugs composed of natural non-toxic products from kidney-reinforcing herbs, are being investigated for the treatment of osteoporosis. Therefore, it is necessary and imperative to develop an objective and comprehensive method to evaluate and compare the effects of herbs with listed drugs.

AIM OF THE STUDY

This study was designed to evaluate and compare the therapeutic effects and the underlying molecular mechanism of the combined extracts of Epimedii Folium and Ligustri Lucidi Fructus (EL) with Raloxifene hydrochloride (RH) in ovariectomy (OVX)-induced postmenopausal osteoporosis (PMOP) rats based on the multi-layer perception (MLP)-artificial neural network (ANN) model.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Female SD rats were subjected to either sham surgery (n = 8) or bilateral OVX (n = 48). One week after recovering from surgery, the OVX-induced rats were randomly divided into three groups: OVX model group (n = 32, every 8 rats were killed at the end of the 5th, 9th, 11th or 13th week after OVX), EL group (treated with EL 0.35 g/kg, n = 8), and RH group (treated with RH 6.25 mg/kg, n = 8). The rats in the treatment groups were administrated once a day for 12 weeks, then sacrificed. We observed bone mass and quality, bone remodeling, the function of estrogen and TGF-β1/Smads pathway in all rats.

RESULTS

Both EL and RH could increase bone mineral density, enhance bone strength, relieve bone micro-structure degeneration, re-balance bone remodeling, regulate estrogen dysfunction, and up-regulate TGF-β1 expression. The evaluation of the MLP-ANN model showed that EL and RH had markedly anti-PMOP effects, and there was no significant difference in the comprehensive evaluation of anti-osteoporosis between the two drugs. However, RH had better effects on bone mass and quality and TGF-β1/Smads pathway than EL; EL had better effects on estrogen function than RH.

CONCLUSION

Combined extracts of Epimedii Folium and Ligustri Lucidi Fructus (EL) exhibited bone-protective effects on PMOP. The MLP-ANN method evaluated the efficacy of drugs more comprehensively, which provided a new direction for the evaluation and comparison of drugs.

An exhaustive review and analysis on applications of statistical forecasting in hospital emergency departments

Emergency departments (EDs) provide medical treatment for a broad spectrum of illnesses and injuries to patients who arrive at all hours of the day. The quality and efficient delivery of health care in EDs are associated with a number of factors, such as patient overall length of stay (LOS) and admission, prompt ambulance diversion, quick and accurate triage, nurse and physician assessment, diagnostic and laboratory services, consultations and treatment. One of the most important ways to plan the healthcare delivery efficiently is to make forecasts of ED processes. The aim this study is thus to provide an exhaustive review for ED stakeholders interested in applying forecasting methods to their ED processes. A categorisation, analysis and interpretation of 102 papers is performed for review. This exhaustive review provides an insight for researchers and practitioners about forecasting in EDs in terms of showing current state and potential areas for future attempts.

Stroke: Temporal Trends and Association with Atmospheric Variables and Air Pollutants in Northern Spain

Stroke, the second cause of death and the most frequent cause of severe disability among adults in developed countries, is related to a large variety of risk factors. This paper assesses the temporal patterns in stroke episodes in a city in Northern Spain during a 12-year period and analyzes the possible effects that atmospheric pollutants and meteorological variables may have on stroke on a daily scale. Our results show that there is an increase in stroke admissions (r = 0.818, p = 0.001) especially in patients over 85 years old. On a weekly scale, the number of hospital admissions due to stroke remains stable from Monday to Friday, whereas it abruptly decreases during the weekends, reaching its minimum values on Sunday (p < 0.005); however, mortality in patients admitted to the hospital is higher on Sundays than on other days of the week. Finally, a statistically significant positive correlation between the number of stroke hospital admissions and NO₂ levels (p = 0.012) and an inverse correlation with relative humidity (p = 0.032) were found. The analysis of the relationship between ischemic strokes and atmospheric circulation shows a higher frequency of the former in Santander with enhanced negative air pressure anomalies over western Spain; the fact that under these conditions the region studied registers very low values of relative humidity is in line with the aforementioned inverse correlation, which has not been described elsewhere in the literature. This study could be a first step for implementing stroke alert protocols depending on air pollution levels and circulation patterns forecasts.

Factors associated with fatal outcome of children with enterovirus A71 infection: a case series

Enterovirus A-71 (EV-A71) may be fatal, but the natural history, symptoms, and signs are poorly understood. This study aimed to examine the natural history of fatal EV-A71 infection and to identify the symptoms and signs of early warning of deterioration. This was a clinical observational study of fatal cases of EV-A71 infection treated at five Chinese hospitals between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2012. We recorded and analysed 91 manifestations of EV-A71 infection in order to identify early prognosis indicators. There were 54 fatal cases. Median age was 21.5 months (Q1−Q3: 12–36). The median duration from onset to death was 78.5 h (range, 6 to 432). The multilayer perceptron analysis showed that ataxia respiratory, ultrahyperpyrexia, excessive tachycardia, refractory shock, absent pharyngeal reflex, irregular respiratory rhythm, hyperventilation, deep coma, pulmonary oedema and/or haemorrhage, excessive hypertension, tachycardia, somnolence, CRT extension, fatigue or sleepiness and age were associated with death. Autopsy findings (n = 2) showed neuronal necrosis, softening, perivascular cuffing, colloid and neuronophagia phenomenon in the brainstem. The fatal cases of enterovirus A71 had neurologic involvement, even at the early stage. Direct virus invasion through the neural pathway and subsequent brainstem damage might explain the rapid progression to death.

The cold effect of ambient temperature on ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke hospital admissions: A large database study in Beijing, China between years 2013 and 2014-Utilizing a distributed lag non-linear analysis

The effects of ambient temperature on stroke death in China have been well addressed. However, few studies are focused on the attributable burden for the incident of different types of stroke due to ambient temperature, especially in Beijing, China. We purpose to assess the influence of ambient temperature on hospital stroke admissions in Beijing, China. Data on daily temperature, air pollution, and relative humidity measurements and stroke admissions in Beijing were obtained between 2013 and 2014. Distributed lag non-linear model was employed to determine the association between daily ambient temperature and stroke admissions. Relative risk (RR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) and Attribution fraction (AF) with 95% CI were calculated based on stroke subtype, gender and age group. A total number of 147, 624 stroke admitted cases (including hemorrhagic and ischemic types of stroke) were documented. A non-linear acute effect of cold temperature on ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke hospital admissions was evaluated. Compared with the 25th percentile of temperature (1.2 °C), the cumulative RR of extreme cold temperature (first percentile of temperature, -9.6 °C) was 1.51 (95% CI: 1.08-2.10) over lag 0-14 days for ischemic type and 1.28 (95% CI: 1.03-1.59) for hemorrhagic stroke over lag 0-3 days. Overall, 1.57% (95% CI: 0.06%-2.88%) of ischemic stroke and 1.90% (95% CI: 0.40%-3.41%) of hemorrhagic stroke was attributed to the extreme cold temperature over lag 0-7 days and lag 0-3 days, respectively. The cold temperature's impact on stroke admissions was found to be more obvious in male gender and the youth compared to female gender and the elderly. Exposure to extreme cold temperature is associated with increasing both ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke admissions in Beijing, China.

Revealing the association between cerebrovascular accidents and ambient temperature: a meta-analysis

The association between cerebrovascular accidents (CVA) and weather has been described across several studies showing multiple conflicting results. In this paper, we aim to conduct a meta-analysis to further clarify this association, as well as to find the potential sources of heterogeneity. PubMed, EMBASE, and Google Scholar were searched from inception through 2015, for articles analyzing the correlation between the incidence of CVA and temperature. A pooled effect size (ES) was estimated using random effects model and expressed as absolute values. Subgroup analyses by type of CVA were also performed. Heterogeneity and influence of covariates-including geographic latitude of the study site, male percentage, average temperature, and time interval-were assessed by meta-regression analysis. Twenty-six articles underwent full data extraction and scoring. A total of 19,736 subjects with CVA from 12 different countries were included and grouped as ischemic strokes (IS; n = 14,199), intracerebral hemorrhages (ICH; n = 3798), and subarachnoid hemorrhages (SAH; n = 1739). Lower ambient temperature was significantly associated with increase in incidence of overall CVA when using unadjusted (pooled ES = 0.23, P < 0.001) and adjusted data (pooled ES = 0.03, P = 0.003). Subgroup analyses showed that lower temperature has higher impact on the incidence of ICH (pooled ES = 0.34, P < 0.001), than that of IS (pooled ES = 0.22, P < 0.001) and SAH (pooled ES = 0.11, P = 0.012). In meta-regression analysis, the geographic latitude of the study site was the most influencing factor on this association (Z-score = 8.68). Synthesis of the existing data provides evidence supporting that a lower ambient temperature increases the incidence of CVA. Further population-based studies conducted at negative latitudes are needed to clarify the influence of this factor.