Nomogram for Predicting Risk of Intestinal Complications After Colorectal Cancer Surgery

Association between preoperative anemia and postoperative short-term outcomes in patients undergoing colorectal cancer surgery - a propensity score matched retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Based on previous studies which failed to analyze important confounding variables, the association between preoperative anemia and outcomes of patients who underwent colorectal cancer (CRC) surgery has not been clearly demonstrated. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between preoperative anemia and short-term outcomes in patients with CRC.

METHODS

Data from a retrospective collective database of patients who underwent CRC surgery at our hospital between September 1, 2019 and September 30, 2021 were retrieved and analyzed, and the short-term postoperative outcomes of anemic (hemoglobin < 120 g dL- 1 for female, hemoglobin < 130 g dL- 1 for male) and non-anemic patients were analyzed, using a 1:1 propensity score matching (PSM) analysis.

RESULTS

After excluding some cases, the remaining 1894 patients had complete data available for analysis. The incidence of preoperative anemia was 39.8% (754/1894). Before PSM, preoperative anemia patients had a higher risk of major morbidity than non-anemia patients (27.2% vs. 23.1%, odds ratio [OR] 1.245, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.008-1.538, P = 0.042). After PSM was performed in the cohort, 609 patients remained in the anemic and non-anemic groups. The incidence of major morbidity (25.8% vs. 24.0%, OR 1.102, 95% CI 0.849-1.429, P = 0.446) between anemic and non-anemic patients was comparable. No significant difference was found between the anemic and non-anemic groups in postoperative length of stay (8.0 [6.0-12.0] vs. 8.0 [7.0-11.0], P = 0.311). The sensitivity analysis results were in accordance with the primary outcome. Furthermore, we did not ascertain any discernible correlation between the extent of anemia and significant major morbidity.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with preoperative non-anemia, anemia status does not seem to be associated with major morbidity in patients with CRC surgery. It is noteworthy that, anemia is insufficient as a solitary risk factor and may be a better marker of poor health resulting from multiple factors.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Registration Authority: Chinese Clinical Trial Registry; Registration number and date: ChiCTR2100049696, 08/08/2021; Principal investigator: Ting Yan; Link to trial registry: http://www.chictr.org.cn/showproj.aspx?proj=131698 ; .

The Effect of Complications on Oncological Outcomes of Colorectal Cancer Patients After Primary Surgery: A Propensity Score Matching Analysis

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to explore the oncologic outcomes of complications on colorectal cancer (CRC) patients who underwent primary surgery using a propensity score matching (PSM) analysis.

Methods

A retrospective study was conducted from Jan 2011 to Jan 2020 in a clinical center. The overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) were compared among the no complications group, the major complications group and the minor complications group.

Results

A total of 4250 CRC patients who underwent radical primary surgery were included in the current study. Among them, 927 (21.8%) patients suffered complications. After 1:1 ratio PSM, there were 98 patients in the major complications group and in the minor complications group, and 911 patients in the overall complications group and in the no complications group. There was no significant difference in terms of baseline information after PSM (p>0.05). Complications were independent predictors of OS (p=0.000, HR=1.693, 95% CI=1.476-1.941) and DFS (p=0.000, HR=1.555, 95% CI=1.367-1.768). In terms of specific tumor stage, the no complications group had better OS on all stages (p=0.006) and stage III (p=0.003) CRC than the complications group after PSM. Furthermore, the no complications group had better DFS on all stages (p=0.005) and stage III (p=0.021) CRC than the complications group after PSM. However, there was no significant difference between the minor complications group and the major complications group in different tumor stages (p>0.05).

Conclusion

Complications were associated with poor prognosis of CRC and surgeons should be cautious of the adverse events.

Metabolic syndrome; associations with adverse outcome after colorectal surgery. A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Increasing evidence shows that patients with Metabolic Syndrome (MetS) are at risk for adverse outcome after abdominal surgery. The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of MetS and preoperative hyperglycemia, as an individual component of MetS, on adverse outcome after colorectal surgery.

Methods

A literature review was systematically performed according to the PRISMA guidelines. Inclusion criteria were observational studies that evaluated the relationship between MetS or preoperative hyperglycemia and outcomes after colorectal surgery (i.e. any complication, severe complication defined as Clavien-Dindo grade ≥ III, anastomotic leakage, surgical site infection, mortality and length of stay).

Results

Six studies (246.383 patients) evaluated MetS and eight studies (9.534 patients) reported on hyperglycemia. Incidence rates of MetS varied widely from 7% to 68% across studies. Meta-analysis showed that patients with MetS are more likely to develop severe complications than those without MetS (RR 1.62, 95% CI 1.01–2.59). Moreover, a non-significant trend toward increased risks for any complication (RR 1.35, 95% CI 0.91–2.00), anastomotic leakage (RR 1.67, 95% CI 0.47–5.93) and mortality (RR 1.19, 95% CI 1.00–1.43) was found. Furthermore, preoperative hyperglycemia was associated with an increased risk of surgical site infection (RR 1.35, 95% CI 1.01–1.81).

Conclusion

MetS seem to have a negative impact on adverse outcome after colorectal surgery. As a result of few studies meeting inclusion criteria and substantial heterogeneity, evidence is not conclusive. Future prospective observational studies should improve the amount and quality in order to verify current results.

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The prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) in colorectal surgery patients is 7–68%.

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MetS increases the risk of severe complications after colorectal surgery.

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Preoperative hyperglycemia, as an individual component of MetS, is associated with surgical site infection.

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Identification of MetS could be valuable in preoperative risk stratification.

Determinación de los factores predictivos para complicaciones en cirugía electiva de pacientes con cáncer colorrectal. Experiencia del Instituto de Cancerología Las Américas Auna (Colombia, 2016-2019)

Introducción. El pilar fundamental del tratamiento del cáncer colorrectal es la cirugía, situación que expone a los pacientes a la posible presentación de complicaciones, morbimortalidad, pobre calidad de vida, recurrencia tumoral o la muerte. El objetivo de este estudio fue determinar las variables clínicas y quirúrgicas que inciden en el riesgo de la aparición de complicaciones en los pacientes con cáncer colorrectal llevados a cirugía electiva entre los años 2016 y 2019. Métodos. Estudio observacional, descriptivo, transversal y retrospectivo. Se incluyeron pacientes mayores de 18 años con cáncer colorrectal sometidos a cirugía electiva. Se realizó un análisis multivariado para determinar los factores que se relacionan con las complicaciones postquirúrgicas. Resultados. Se incluyeron 298 pacientes, 68 % mayores de 60 años, 52,3 % mujeres, 74,2 % presentaban comorbilidades y 48,3 % fueron diagnosticados en estadio III. El 48,3 % presentó complicaciones postoperatorias. De ellos, el 68,1 % no tenía tamización nutricional y el 61,8 % no tenía preparación del colon; un 55 % fueron cirugías del recto, 69,1 % de las cirugías fueron por vía laparoscópica y 71,8 % presentaron sangrado inferior a 500 ml. La mayoría de las complicaciones fueron clasificadas como Clavien-Dindo I-III. Discusión. Las características de los pacientes fueron similares a los presentados en otros estudios, aunque hubo mayor incidencia de íleo postoperatorio. El análisis multivariado mostró una mayor probabilidad de presentar una complicación en pacientes con diabetes mellitus, hipertensión arterial, falta de tamización nutricional o preparación de colon, cirugía de recto y el sangrado mayor a 500 ml.

Modified Model for Diagnosing Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System Category 3 to 5 Breast Lesions: Retrospective Analysis and Nomogram Development

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to explore a modified model to simplify the diagnostic process for American College of Radiology Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System category 3 to 5 breast lesions and evaluate the model's diagnostic efficacy.

METHODS

A retrospective review was conducted of breast lesions examined by B-mode ultrasound (US) and contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) and diagnosed by histopathologic examination from October 2016 to August 2019. The US characteristics of a combined model (US + CEUS model) with relatively high diagnostic value were selected by a lasso regression analysis to establish a modified model. Two nomograms were developed. The results were internally validated by bootstrap resampling.

RESULTS

Overall, 206 breast lesions in 198 patients, 136 benign and 70 malignant, were included. Ultrasound characteristics included in the modified model were shape, margin, microcalcification, enhanced intensity, enhanced scope, and enhanced time. For the US + CEUS model and modified model, sensitivities were 94.3% and 93.3%; specificities were 85.9% and 81.4%; accuracies were 89.3% and 88.7% and areas under the curve were 0.957 and 0.944, respectively. No statistically significant differences were seen in the diagnostic efficacies of the models (P = .097). Bootstrap-corrected sensitivities, specificities. and accuracies of the models were consistent with these results. Bootstrap-corrected areas under the curve for the US + CEUS model and the modified model were 0.955 and 0.940, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The modified model with fewer indicators conveniently and effectively diagnosed the malignancy of Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System category 3 to 5 breast lesions without reducing diagnostic efficacy.

Nomogram for predicting kyphotic deformity after laminoplasty in cervical spondylotic myelopathy patients without preoperative kyphotic alignment

BACKGROUND

Kyphotic deformity occurrence after cervical laminoplasty is not rare. Several studies have emphasized the development of postoperative kyphotic deformity (PKD) will impair the functional outcome of cervical laminoplasty. We established and validated a nomogram prediction model for kyphotic deformity after laminoplasty in cervical spondylotic myelopathy patients (CSM) without preoperative kyphotic alignment.

METHODS

Preoperative and 1-year postoperative data of 369 patients who underwent single-door cervical laminoplasty (SDCL) at the author's hospital between July 2010 and February 2018 were collected. Using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method, significant parameters were selected to develop a nomogram prediction model. The prognostic performance of the model was evaluated using concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve. The discriminatory ability of the prediction model was evaluated by the area under (receiver operating characteristic) curve (AUC).

RESULTS

Of the 369 patients, 31 developed PKD in 1 year after the surgery. Using the LASSO regression, six significant variables composed the final model: age, C2-7 sagittal vertical axis, C7 slope, C2-7 angle, flexion range of motion and operation level were selected. The AUC of the nomogram was 0.771. The C-index for the prediction nomogram was 0.771 (95 % CI: 0.672-0.870). The calibration curve also indicated good consistency.

CONCLUSION

A nomogram for predicting PKD after SDCL was established and validated. For patients evaluated by this model with predictive high risk of developing postoperative kyphosis, an alternative approach to the subaxial cervical spine such as anterior surgery should be considered.

Development and Validation of a Novel Model for Predicting the 5-Year Risk of Type 2 Diabetes in Patients with Hypertension: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Background

Hypertension is now common in China. Patients with hypertension and type 2 diabetes are prone to severe cardiovascular complications and poor prognosis. Therefore, this study is aimed at establishing an effective risk prediction model to provide early prediction of the risk of new-onset diabetes for patients with a history of hypertension.

Methods

A LASSO regression model was used to select potentially relevant features. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to determine independent predictors. Based on the results of multivariate analysis, a nomogram of the 5-year incidence of T2D in patients with hypertension in mainland China was established. The discriminative capacity was assessed by Harrell's C-index, AUC value, calibration plot, and clinical utility.

Results

After random sampling, 1273 and 415 patients with hypertension were included in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. The prediction model included age, body mass index, FPG, and TC as predictors. In the derivation cohort, the AUC value and C-index of the prediction model are 0.878 (95% CI, 0.861-0.895) and 0.862 (95% CI, 0.830-0.894), respectively. In the validation cohort, the AUC value and C-index of the prediction model were 0.855 (95% CI, 0.836-0.874) and 0.841 (95% CI, 0.817-0.865), respectively. The calibration plots demonstrated good agreement between the estimated probability and the actual observation. Decision curve analysis shows that nomograms are clinically useful.

Conclusion

Our nomogram can be used as a simple, affordable, reasonable, and widely implemented tool to predict the 5-year T2D risk of hypertension patients in mainland China. This application helps timely intervention to reduce the incidence of T2D in patients with hypertension in mainland China.

An immune scores-based nomogram for predicting overall survival in patients with clear cell renal cell carcinoma

The role of immune cell infiltration in the prognosis of clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC) has received increasing attention. However, immune scores have not yet been introduced into routine clinical practice of ccRCC patients. The principal objective of our research was to study the correlation between immune scores and overall survival (OS) of ccRCC.In this study, Cox regression analyses were used to identify risk factors associated with OS of ccRCC based on the Cancer Genome Atlas datasets. Furthermore, an integrated nomogram combining immune scores and clinicopathologic factors was built for predicting 3- and 5-year OS of ccRCC patients. The receiver operating characteristic curve, concordance index, and calibration curves were used for the evaluation of our nomogram. Also, Kaplan-Meier (KM) survival analysis of immune scores, stromal scores, and different clinicopathological factors was performed.A total of 514 patients were divided into the low- or high-immune scores group. KM and multivariate Cox regression analyses demonstrated that ccRCC patients with high-immune scores had significantly poor OS compared with those with low-immune scores. Calibration curves showed good consistency between the predicted OS and the actual OS probability. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for 3- and 5-year OS were 0.816 and 0.769, and the concordance index was 0.775, indicating that our nomogram had good accuracy for predicting OS of ccRCC patients. Additionally, KM analysis showed that older age, later T stage, distant metastasis, advanced tumor lymph node metastasis stage, higher tumor grade, left site, and low stromal scores were associated with worse OS in ccRCC patients.High-immune scores show a significant correlation with unsatisfactory prognosis in ccRCC patients. Furthermore, the immune scores-based nomogram may be helpful in predicting ccRCC prognosis.

A novel nomogram to predict early neurological deterioration in patients with acute ischaemic stroke

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Acute ischaemic stroke (AIS) is a vital cause of mortality and morbidity in China. Many AIS patients develop early neurological deterioration (END). This study aimed to construct a nomogram to predict END in AIS patients.

METHODS

Acute ischaemic stroke patients in Nanjing First Hospital were recruited as the training cohort. Additional patients in Nantong Third People's Hospital were enrolled as the validation cohort. Multivariate logistic regression was utilized to establish the nomogram. Discrimination and calibration performance of the nomogram were tested by concordance index and calibration plots. Decision curve analysis was employed to assess the utility of the nomogram.

RESULTS

In all, 1889 and 818 patients were recruited in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. Age [odds ratio (OR) 1.075; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.059-1.091], diabetes mellitus (OR 1.673; 95% CI 1.181-2.370), atrial fibrillation (OR 3.297; 95% CI 2.005-5.421), previous antiplatelet medication (OR 0.473; 95% CI 0.301-0.744), hyper-sensitive C-reactive protein (OR 1.049; 95% CI 1.036-1.063) and baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (OR 1.071; 95% CI 1.045-1.098) were associated with END and incorporated in the nomogram. The concordance index was 0.826 (95% CI 0.785-0.885) and 0.798 (95% CI 0.749-0.847) in the training and validation cohorts. By decision curve analysis, the model was relevant between thresholds of 0.06 and 0.90 in the training cohort and 0.08 and 0.77 in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

The nomogram composed of hyper-sensitive C-reactive protein, age, diabetes mellitus, atrial fibrillation, previous antiplatelet medication and baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale may predict the risk of END in AIS patients.

A Novel Nomogram Based on Immune Scores for Predicting Survival in Patients with Early-Stage Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC)

Background

The role of immune parameters in the prognosis of lung cancer has attracted more and more attention. However, studies of the association between immune scores and prognosis of lung cancer are scarce. The goal of our research was to investigate the correlation between immune scores and overall survival (OS) of early-stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).

Material/Methods

All data regarding patient immune and stromal scores, clinicopathological features, and survival was obtained from the TCGA datasets. Univariable and multivariable Cox regression analyses were utilized to recognize risk factors associated with OS. Afterward, a prognostic nomogram was constructed for predicting 3- and 5-year OS of stage I and II NSCLC patients. Calibration curves and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) were performed to assess the predictive accuracy of the nomogram. Kaplan-Meier methodology was also applied for the survival analysis.

Results

In total, 764 NSCLC (stage I–II) patients were analyzed, and all patients were classified into 3 groups based on immune scores. Results showed that patients with medium-immune scores had significantly worse OS (hazard ratio=1.73, 95% confidence interval: 1.22–2.46) compared with those with low- and high immune scores. Area under the ROC curves (AUC) values for 3- and 5-year OS were 0.65 and 0.64, respectively. Calibration plots demonstrated good consistency in the probability of OS between nomogram predictions and actual observations.

Conclusions

Medium-immune scores are correlated with unsatisfactory prognosis in NSCLC (stage I–II) patients. In addition, the prognostic nomogram may be helpful in predicting OS for stage I and II NSCLC patients.

A prognostic nomogram for neuroblastoma in children

Introduction

Neuroblastoma is one of the most common extracranial solid tumors in children, which accounts for about 7-10% in children's tumors. The prognosis group of patients with neuroblastoma could not only improve the efficacy of high-risk patients, but also reduce the effects of drug complications for surviving patients.

Material and Methods

Patients diagnosed with neuroblastoma between 1986 and 2012 were selected form the TARGET database. The nomogram was built with potential risk factors based on COX regression analysis. The precision of the 3-year and 5-year survival of the nomograms was evaluated by the area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC).

Results

A total of 757 child neuroblastoma patients were selected from the TARGET database. Univariate analysis showed that age of diagnosis (>520 day), race of American Indian or Alaska Native, stage 4 in International Neuroblastoma Staging System (INSS), MYCN status, DNA ploidy, and high mitosis-karyorrhexis index were associated with overall survival (OS). Multivariate analysis showed age of diagnosis (>520 day), stage 4 in INSS and DNA ploidy were independent risk factors of OS. The concordance index (C-index) of the nomogram was 0.704 (95% CI [0.686-0.722]) in the training cohort while the C-index in the validation cohort was 0.672 (95% CI [0.644-0.700]). AUC values of ROC curves for 3-year OS and 5-year OS in the training cohort were 0.732 and 0.772, respectively. The nomogram performed better compared with INSS staging system, tumor histology and children's oncology group (COG) risk group with C-indexes of 0.662 (95% CI [0.648-0.676]), 0.637 (95% CI [0.622-0.652]) and 0.651 (95% CI [0.637-0.665]), respectively.

Conclusions

The nomogram showed stronger predictive power than the INSS staging system, tumor histology and COG risk group. Precise estimates of the prognosis of childhood neuroblastoma might help doctors make better treatment decisions.