Competing-Risks Model for Predicting the Postoperative Prognosis of Patients with Papillary Thyroid Adenocarcinoma Based on The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Database

Application and subgroup analysis of competing risks model based on different lymph node staging systems in differentiated thyroid cancer

Differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) is the most common endocrine malignancy, with a rising incidence worldwide. Accurate prognostic models are essential for effective patient management. This study evaluates the prognostic value of various lymph node staging systems in DTC using a competing risks model. We used SEER database records (1998-2016) of 16,527 DTC patients, analyzing N stage, positive lymph node numbers (PLNNs), metastatic lymph node ratio (MLNR), log odds of positive lymph nodes (LODDS), and log odds of the negative lymph node (NLN)/T stage ratio (LONT). Univariate and multivariate analyses in a competing risks model were performed, along with subgroup analyses based on demographic and clinical characteristics. In this study of 16,527 patients with DTC, different lymph node staging systems showed different prognostic correlations in univariate and multivariate analyses. In particular, PLNNs showed significant prognostic correlations in several subgroups. Additionally, PLNNs were more suitable as a lymph node staging system for DTC than LODDS and MLNR in N1 stage subgroups, with an optimal cut-off of 13. Receiver operating characteristic curves, calibration curves and nomograms improved the clinical utility of the prognostic model based on PLNNs. Using competing risks model and subgroup analyses, we found that PLNNs had the best prognostic discriminatory efficacy for patients with DTC, especially those with N1 stage disease, and had an optimal cut-off value of 13.

Competing risk models versus traditional Cox models for prognostic factors' prediction and care recommendation in patients with advanced laryngeal squamous carcinoma: a population-based study

PURPOSE

To explore the prognostic factors and the optimal treatment modalities for patients with stage IVA laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma (LSCC), so as to improve the survival rate of patients.

METHODS

Patients with stage IVA LSCC between 2004 and 2019 were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. We used competing risk models to build nomograms for predicting cancer-specific survival (CSS). The effectiveness of the model was assessed using the calibration curves and the concordance index (C-index). The above results were compared with the nomogram established by Cox regression analysis. The patients were grouped into low-risk and high-risk groups by competing risk nomogram formula. And the Kaplan-Meier (K-M) method and log-rank test were used to make sure that these groups had a survival difference.

RESULTS

Overall, 3612 patients were included. Older age, black race, a higher N stage, a higher pathological grade, and a larger tumor size were independent risk factors for CSS; married marital status, total/radical laryngectomy, and radiotherapy were protective factors. The C-index was 0.663, 0.633, and 0.628 in the train set and 0.674, 0.639, and 0.629 in the test set of the competing risk model, and 0.672, 0.640, and 0.634 in the traditional Cox nomogram for 1, 3, and 5 years. In overall survival and CSS, the prognosis of the high-risk group was poorer than that of the low-risk group.

CONCLUSION

For patients with stage IVA LSCC, a competing risk nomogram was created to help screen risk population and guide clinical decision-making.

A prognostic nomogram for papillary thyroid cancer lymph node metastasis based on immune score

BACKGROUND

Papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) is the most common subtype of thyroid cancer and is characterized by an overall good prognosis and early-stage lymph node metastasis. The immune microenvironment is believed to play a crucial role in PTC initiation, progression and metastasis. However, to our knowledge, prognostic tools for thyroid cancer metastasis based on immune scores have not been adequately explored. This study aimed to construct a clinical nomogram to predict lymph node metastasis in patients with PTC.

METHODS

The genomic data and clinical-pathological characteristics of 447 PTC subjects were obtained from TCGA (The Cancer Genome Atlas data). Logistic regression models were performed for univariate and multivariate analyses to identify significant prediction factors. A prognostic nomogram was built based on the multivariate analysis results. The concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve were used to assess the predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the model.

RESULTS

The patients were divided into two subgroups based on immune scores. We found that patients with high immune scores had significantly higher lymph node metastasis risks (OR and 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.774[1.130-2.784]) than those with low immune scores. The C-index for lymph node metastasis was 0.722 (95% CI, 0.671-0.774), which had a favorable performance for clinical prediction. The calibration curve for lymph node metastasis showed significant agreement between the nomogram prediction and actual observation.

CONCLUSION

High immune scores are significantly correlated with higher lymph node metastasis risk in patients with PTC. Immune score-based prognostic nomograms may help to predict lymph node metastasis and have potential clinical application possibilities.

Male Gender Is Associated with Lymph Node Metastasis but Not with Recurrence in Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The incidence of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) is higher in females than in males, but it remains unclear whether gender is associated with the aggressiveness of this disease. We aimed to clarify the influence of gender on the risk of developing lymph node metastasis (LNM) and on the prognosis of PTC patients. Study Design. Retrospective cohort study. Setting. Academic tertiary care center.

METHODS

Clinical data of PTC patients who were admitted to the Department of Endocrine and Breast Surgery, the First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, between January 2013 and December 2018 were retrospectively reviewed. The differences in clinical features and outcomes between female and male patients were compared. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to assess the impact of gender on LNM. Kaplan-Meier curves were used to estimate recurrence-free survival (RFS).

RESULTS

A total of consecutive 2536 patients were enrolled in this study. Males accounted for 25.2% (639 cases) of all patients. Central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) and lateral lymph node metastasis (LLNM) rates were 52.5% (1346/2536) and 22.0% (558/2536), respectively. Male presented with higher LNM rates than female patients (65.7% vs. 51.2%; P < 0.001). Male gender was independently associated with LNM (OR = 1.93, 95% CI: 1.59-2.35; P < 0.001). After full adjustment, male gender still remained significantly associated with CLNM in all subgroups; however, subgroup analyses indicated no significant relationship between gender and LLNM. In addition, after a median follow-up period of 30 months, no significant difference was found in RFS between female and male patients (P=0.15).

CONCLUSIONS

This observational cohort study revealed that male gender was significantly associated with CLNM; whereas, LLNM was not different between female and male PTC patients in southwestern China. Moreover, currently, there is insufficient evidence to justify that male gender is an independent prognostic factor for recurrence.

Sex disparities in thyroid cancer: a SEER population study

BACKGROUND

The incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer vary based on race as well as gender. Both gender thyroid cancer patients give variable clinical characteristics, such as tumor size and distant metastasis. However, sex differences in the prognosis of thyroid cancer remain controversial. Therefore, the present study explored the relationship between gender and prognosis of patients with thyroid cancer for conducive personalized treatment.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis was carried out on patients with pathologically proven thyroid cancer from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The gender disparities in the prognosis of different cohorts, derived by propensity score matching were investigated using Cox proportional hazards models and Kaplan-Meier curves.

RESULTS

Among the studied 41,270 female and 13,188 males with thyroid cancer, gender was an independent prognostic factor for overall (OS) and cancer-specific (CSS) survival (HR =1.632, 95% CI: 1.499-1.777, P<0.001; HR =1.473, 95% CI: 1.245-1.741, P<0.001). Though, male patients had a larger tumor size (17.4 vs. 23.5 cm) and a larger proportion of metastasis [lymph nodes (LNs): 33.2% vs. 21.0%; distant: 2.3% vs. 0.9%], female had a higher incidence and earlier age diagnosis with thyroid cancer (48.0 vs. 52.5 years old). Survival Time (in months) of male patients was also significantly lower than female patients (72.4 vs. 76.8 months). In the Kaplan-Meier curves of cohorts derived by propensity score matching, OS and CSS declined much sharply for male (P<0.001). The mean number (2.0 vs. 4.0) and mean ratio (0.192 vs. 0.297) of positive nodes supported worse prognosis for male patients. Whereas factors including race, age, surgery, histology recodes, T, N, M stage and combined summary stage affected the CSS of male and female patients, however plus median income had an extra impact on male population (≥$55,000 vs. <$55,000: HR =0.739, 95% CI: 0.574-0.953, P=0.020).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study demonstrated that male patients had a prognostic factor for poorer OS and CSS. Other factors including race, age, income, histological type, surgery, T, N, M stage influenced OS of male and female thyroid cancer patients. Interestingly, race had no impact on CSS of thyroid cancer patients, whereas median income affected only the male patients CSS.