Development and Validation of Predictive Models for Vaginal Birth After Cesarean Delivery in China

Maternal circulating metabolic biomarkers and their prediction performance for gestational diabetes mellitus related macrosomia

INTRODUCTION

Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), a metabolism-related pregnancy complication, is significantly associated with an increased risk of macrosomia. We hypothesized that maternal circulating metabolic biomarkers differed between women with GDM and macrosomia (GDM-M) and women with GDM and normal neonatal weight (GDM-N), and had good prediction performance for GDM-M.

METHODS

Plasma samples from 44 GDM-M and 44 GDM-N were analyzed using Olink Proseek multiplex metabolism assay targeting 92 biomarkers. Combined different clinical characteristics and Olink markers, LASSO regression was used to optimize variable selection, and Logistic regression was applied to build a predictive model. Nomogram was developed based on the selected variables visually. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration plot, and clinical impact curve were used to validate the model.

RESULTS

We found 4 metabolism-related biomarkers differing between groups [CLUL1 (Clusterin-like protein 1), VCAN (Versican core protein), FCRL1 (Fc receptor-like protein 1), RNASE3 (Eosinophil cationic protein), FDR <  0.05]. Based on the different clinical characteristics and Olink markers, a total of nine predictors, namely pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI), weight gain at 24 gestational weeks (gw), parity, oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) 2 h glucose at 24 gw, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) at 24 gw, and plasma expression of CLUL1, VCAN and RNASE3 at 24 gw, were identified by LASSO regression. The model constructed using these 9 predictors displayed good prediction performance for GDM-M, with an area under the ROC of 0.970 (sensitivity = 0.955, specificity = 0.886), and was well calibrated (P _{Hosmer-Lemeshow test} = 0.897).

CONCLUSION

The Model included pre-pregnancy BMI, weight gain at 24 gw, parity, OGTT 2 h glucose at 24 gw, HDL and LDL at 24 gw, and plasma expression of CLUL1, VCAN and RNASE3 at 24 gw had good prediction performance for predicting macrosomia in women with GDM.

Prediction models of vaginal birth after cesarean delivery: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Cesarean section rates are rising in the world. Women with a history of cesarean section will select a cesarean section at the next pregnancy. An objective and accurate prediction about the success rate of vaginal delivery after cesarean section can help women to reduce the complications caused by cesarean section, shorten the time spent in the hospital, and effectively plan medical resources.

OBJECTIVE

To systematically review and critically assess the existing prediction models of vaginal delivery after cesarean section.

METHODS

Some databases (PubMed, Web of Science, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature) were searched from 2000 to 2021 for studies regarding the prediction model of vaginal birth after cesarean delivery. The researchers successively conducted independent literature screening, data extraction and quality evaluation of the included literature, and then utilized the Prediction model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool to assess the methodological quality of the models in the included studies.

RESULTS

A total of 33 studies were included, in which 20 prediction models were identified. Sixteen studies involved external validation of existing models (Grobman's models). In the 20 prediction models, 12 were internally validated, only three had external validation, and seven models were not explicitly reported, with the area under the curve ranging from 0.660 to 0.953; The most common predictors included in the model were body mass index and previous vaginal delivery, followed by maternal age, previous cesarean delivery indication, history of vaginal birth after cesarean, fetal weight, and Bishop's score, gestational age, history of vaginal birth after cesarean, maternal race; The prediction effect of Grobman's model was validated in multiple external populations; The majority of the studies(n = 27) had high risk of bias in the of the Prediction model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool.

CONCLUSIONS

This review provides obstetricians and midwives with important information about the prediction models of vaginal birth after cesarean section, which has been reported optimistic predictive performance and acceptable predictive power. However, the majority of the development studies have methodological limitations, which may hinder the widely application of these models by obstetricians. Further studies are supposed to develop predictive models with low risk of bias, and conduct internal and external validation, providing pragmatic and practical predictions to obstetricians.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42022299048.

Mechanical ventilation characteristics and their prediction performance for the risk of moderate and severe bronchopulmonary dysplasia in infants with gestational age <30 weeks and birth weight <1,500 g

INTRODUCTION

Moderate and severe bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) is a common pulmonary complication in premature infants, which seriously affects their survival rate and quality of life. This study aimed to describe the mechanical ventilation characteristics and evaluate their prediction performance for the risk of moderate and severe BPD in infants with gestational age <30 weeks and birth weight <1,500 g on postnatal Day 14.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort study, 412 infants with gestational age <30 weeks and birth weight <1,500 g were included in the analysis, including 104 infants with moderate and severe BPD and 308 infants without moderate and severe BPD (as controls). LASSO regression was used to optimize variable selection, and Logistic regression was applied to build a predictive model. Nomograms were developed visually using the selected variables. To validate the model, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration plot, and clinical impact curve were used.

RESULTS

From the original 28 variables studied, six predictors, namely birth weight, 5 min apgar score, neonatal respiratory distress syndrome (≥Class II), neonatal pneumonia, duration of invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) and maximum of FiO₂ (fraction of inspiration O₂) were identified by LASSO regression analysis. The model constructed using these six predictors and a proven risk factor (gestational age) displayed good prediction performance for moderate and severe BPD, with an area under the ROC of 0.917 (sensitivity = 0.897, specificity = 0.797) in the training set and 0.931 (sensitivity = 0.885, specificity = 0.844) in the validation set, and was well calibrated (P _{Hosmer-Lemeshow test}= 0.727 and 0.809 for the training and validation set, respectively).

CONCLUSION

The model included gestational age, birth weight, 5 min apgar score, neonatal respiratory distress syndrome (≥Class II), neonatal pneumonia, duration of IMV and maximum of FiO₂ had good prediction performance for predicting moderate and severe BPD in infants with gestational age <30 weeks and birth weight <1,500 g on postnatal Day 14.