Atrial fibrillation recurrence predictors after conversion to sinus rhythm

Temporal variation in the diagnosis of resolved atrial fibrillation and the influence of performance targets on clinical coding: cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To investigate whether the introduction of performance targets for anticoagulation in atrial fibrillation (AF) was associated with a change in use of the 'resolved AF' code.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort studies.

SETTING

Data from The Health Improvement Network, a UK database of electronic patient records, from 2000 to 2016.

PARTICIPANTS

250 788 adult patients aged ≥18 years with a diagnosis of AF, including 14 757 with an incident diagnosis of 'resolved AF'.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Annual and monthly incidence of 'resolved AF' from 2000 to 2016. Among patients with 'resolved AF', for each year we calculated median duration of the preceding AF diagnosis and the proportion prescribed anticoagulants prior to 'resolved AF'.

RESULTS

Incidence of 'resolved AF' increased from 5.7 to 26.3 per 1000 person-years between 2005 and the introduction of AF performance targets in 2006. Compared with the years prior to the introduction of the performance targets, incidence has remained higher in every year since their implementation. Since 2007, monthly incidence has been highest between January and March. Between 2005 and 2006, median duration between AF and 'resolved AF' diagnoses increased from 276 days (9 months) to 1343 days (3 years 8 months). Among 'resolved AF' patients with CHA₂DS₂-VASc score ≥1, 81.9% (95% CI 81.1 to 82.6) had no current anticoagulant prescription, and 62.3% (95% CI 61.4 to 63.2) had no record of any anticoagulant prescription.

CONCLUSION

The introduction of AF performance targets was followed by a large increase in use of the 'resolved AF' code, particularly in the months immediately before practices make their anticoagulant performance target submissions. Although most AF patients are prescribed anticoagulants, few patients diagnosed with 'resolved AF' are prescribed anticoagulants and most have never been prescribed them. Untreated patients are much more likely to be coded as having 'resolved AF'.

Utility of P-Wave Dispersion in the Prediction of Atrial Fibrillation

Prevention is important in the case of the most common sustained arrhythmia-atrial fibrillation, with the intention of obtaining both medical and economic benefits. Electrocardiographic parameters have been tested as predictors of atrial fibrillation in different settings, and indices of P-wave have been assiduously studied.Increased P-wave dispersion has been described in different illnesses and correlated with several echocardiographic and clinical parameters. Several studies have demonstrated the relationship between P-wave dispersion with the first episode or paroxysmal atrial fibrillation, as well as with the recurrence of atrial fibrillation after conversion to sinus rhythm. Despite of some critics, the current evidencesentitleus to continue studying P-wave dispersion and use it for identifying patients with risk for atrial fibrillation.