The Legacy of Peter Fishburn: Foundational Work and Lasting Impact

Peter Fishburn has had a tremendous impact on the field of decision analysis, developing ideas that would come to be foundational across decision analysis and that would impact the literature on decision making in economics, psychology, finance, engineering, and mathematics. This paper provides an overview of his legacy. We summarize 11 of his influential papers. We then trace his impact on recent research in topics including preference representation and elicitation, risk attitudes, time preferences, health preferences, behavioral decision making, social choice and voting, and geometric analyses.

Supplemental Material: The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2022.0461 .

Development of Goal-Sensitive Health-Related Utility Assessment Procedures

Purpose. To measure the degree to which people express willingness to trade life or health for nonmedical goals. Method. In 3 studies, outpatients provided important life goals. In study 1, patients performed time-tradeoff between life-years and goal achievement and chose between states that varied in goal achievement, life expectancy, and disability; in study 2, patients made choices that traded off health state and goal achievement; in study 3, patients performed time-tradeoff assessments in 3 different goal achievement contexts. Results. In study 1 (n = 58), participants were eager to trade life-years for goal achievement, trading, on average, 71% of their remaining life for certain achievement v. certain nonachievement or 54% of their remaining life for their expected likelihood of achievement v. nonachievement. Life expectancy, disability status, and goal achievement each had a significant main effect on utility. In study 2 (n = 54), participants equally preferred a moderately impaired health state with goal achievement to perfect health without goal achievement and more strongly preferred the moderately impaired state with goal achievement than other less impaired states without goal achievement. Study 3 (n = 62) demonstrated that the mere discussion of goals and goal achievement or nonachievement in the context of a standard time-tradeoff assessment (without trading off goals) did not impact the assessment. Conclusions. Nonmedical life goals are important determinants of quality of life. People express willingness to trade off life and health in pursuit of these goals, which are extrinsic to the standard quality-adjusted life-year model.

Incorporating extrinsic goals into decision and cost-effectiveness analyses

It has not been widely recognized that medical patients as individuals may have goals that are not easily expressed in terms of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). The QALY model deals with ongoing goals such as reducing pain or maintaining mobility, but goals such as completing an important project or seeing a child graduate from college occur at unique points in time and do not lend themselves to easy expression in terms of QALYs. Such extrinsic goals have been posited as explanations for preferences inconsistent with the QALY model, such as unwillingness to trade away time or accept gambles. In this article, the authors examine methods for including extrinsic goals in medical decision and cost-effectiveness analyses. As illustrations, they revisit 2 previously published analyses, the management of unruptured intracranial arteriovenous malformations (AVMs) and the evaluation of preventive strategies for BRCA + women.

Life goals and health decisions: what will people live (or die) for?

OBJECTIVE

Quality of life may represent not just quality of health but also the degree to which an individual achieves personally meaningful extrinsic goals unrelated to life duration that are not incorporated in the standard quality-adjusted life year model. The objectives of this study are to develop a typology of life goals and explore whether goal type is related to willingness to consider trading life years or health for goals.

DESIGN

. Surveys of 50 Chicago-area residents and 101 inpatients. Outcomes. Participants provided up to 5 goals. For each, they reported 1) how long the goal might take to achieve, 2) whether they would prefer a shorter lifetime with certain goal achievement to their full lifetime without goal achievement, and 3) whether they would prefer lower quality of health with certain goal achievement to their full health without goal achievement.

RESULTS

Participant goals were classified by 2 investigators into 7 broad categories: family, wealth, job, education, health/fitness, travel, and personal fulfillment. Respondents in both samples were more likely to be willing to trade life years (community odds ratio [OR] = 7.39, P=0.0004; patient OR=1.82, P=0.008) or health (community OR= 5.11, P = 0.0042; patient OR = 1.83, P = 0.0498) to achieve family goals than other types of goals.

CONCLUSIONS

The authors derive a manageable typology of goals that may affect medical decisions and demonstrate interrater reliability. Because willingness to trade life years varies by type of goal, typical time-tradeoff assessments may be systematically influenced by respondents' goals.