Using sepsis scores in emergency department and ward patients

Prognostic value of serial score measurements of the national early warning score, the quick sequential organ failure assessment and the systemic inflammatory response syndrome to predict clinical outcome in early sepsis

BACKGROUND AND IMPORTANCE

Sepsis is a common and potentially lethal syndrome, and early recognition is critical to prevent deterioration. Yet, currently available scores to facilitate recognition of sepsis lack prognostic accuracy.

OBJECTIVE

To identify the optimal time-point to determine NEWS, qSOFA and SIRS for the prediction of clinical deterioration in early sepsis and to determine whether the change in these scores over time improves their prognostic accuracy.

DESIGN

Post hoc analysis of prospectively collected data.

SETTINGS AND PARTICIPANTS

This study was performed in the emergency department (ED) of a tertiary-care teaching hospital. Adult medical patients with (potential) sepsis were included.

OUTCOME MEASURES AND ANALYSIS

The primary outcome was clinical deterioration within 72 h after admission, defined as organ failure development, the composite outcome of ICU-admission and death. Secondary outcomes were the composite of ICU-admission/death and a rise in SOFA at least 2. Scores were calculated at the ED with 30-min intervals. ROC analyses were constructed to compare the prognostic accuracy of the scores.

RESULTS

In total, 1750 patients were included, of which 360 (20.6%) deteriorated and 79 (4.5%) went to the ICU or died within 72 h. The NEWS at triage (AUC, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.59-0.65) had a higher accuracy than qSOFA (AUC, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.56-0.63) and SIRS (AUC, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.56-0.63) for predicting deterioration. The AUC of the NEWS at 1 h (0.65; 95% CI, 0.63-0.69) and 150 min after triage (0.64; 95% CI, 0.61-0.68) was higher than the AUC of the NEWS at triage. The qSOFA had the highest AUC at 90 min after triage (0.62; 95% CI, 0.58-0.65), whereas the SIRS had the highest AUC at 60 min after triage (0.60; 95% CI, 0.56-0.63); both are not significantly different from triage. The NEWS had a better accuracy to predict ICU-admission/death <72 h compared with qSOFA (AUC difference, 0.092) and SIRS (AUC difference, 0.137). No differences were found for the prediction of a rise in SOFA at least 2 within 72 h between the scores. Patients with the largest improvement in any of the scores were more prone to deteriorate.

CONCLUSION

NEWS had a higher prognostic accuracy to predict deterioration compared with SIRS and qSOFA; the highest accuracy was reached at 1 h after triage.

SOFA Score Plus Impedance Ratio Predicts Mortality in Critically Ill Patients Admitted to the Emergency Department: Retrospective Observational Study

Background: The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) is a scoring system used for the evaluation of disease severity and prognosis of critically ill patients. The impedance ratio (Imp-R) is a novel mortality predictor. Aims: This study aimed to evaluate the combination of the SOFA + Imp-R in the prediction of mortality in critically ill patients admitted to the Emergency Department (ED). Methods: A retrospective cohort study was performed in adult patients with acute illness admitted to the ED of a tertiary-care referral center. Baseline SOFA score and bioelectrical impedance analysis to obtain the Imp-R were performed within the first 24 h after admission to the ED. A Cox regression analysis was performed to evaluate the mortality risk of the initial SOFA score plus the Imp-R. Harrell’s C-statistic and decision curve analyses (DCA) were performed. Results: Out of 325 patients, 240 were included for analysis. Overall mortality was 31.3%. Only 21.3% of non-surviving patients died after hospital discharge, and 78.4% died during their hospital stay. Of the latter, 40.6% died in the ED. The SOFA and Imp-R values were higher in non-survivors and were significantly associated with mortality in all models. The combination of the SOFA + Imp-R significantly predicted 30-day mortality, in-hospital mortality, and ED mortality with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.80 (95% CI: 74–0.86), 0.79 (95% CI: 0.74–0.86) and 0.75 (95% CI: 0.66–0.84), respectively. The DCA showed that combining the SOFA + Imp-R improved the prediction of mortality through the lower risk thresholds. Conclusions: The addition of the Imp-R to the baseline SOFA score on admission to the ED improves mortality prediction in severely acutely ill patients admitted to the ED.

Prognostic value of diagnostic scales in community-acquired sepsis mortality at an emergency service. Prognosis in community-adquired sepsis

Objectives

To asses the prognostic value of diagnostic scales in mortality of community-adquired sepsis and added value of additional parameters.

Methods

Prospective observational study of patients with community-adquired sepsis in the Emergency Room of University Hospital. The study population were patients presented in the Emergency Room with confirmed infection and practicians sepsis diagnosis. Demographics, triage vital signs, inhaled oxygen fraction, inflammatory markers, biochemistry, all-cause mortality during hospitalization and three months after were recorded. Prognostic value of qSOFA, NEWS, SOFA, SIRS, and amplified scales were calculated by using logistic regression and ROC curves.

Results

201 patients, 54% male, average age 77±11,2 years were included. Sixty-three (31.5%) died during hospitalization and 24 (12%) three months after discharge. At the time of admission vital signs related with in-hospital mortality were Glasgow Coma Scale <13, respiratory rate ≥22 bpm, temperature, oxygen desaturation, high flow oxygen therapy and heart rate. Patients dead in-hospital had lower PaCO2, higher lactate, glucose and creatinine. Greater predictive capacity of the scales, from higher to lower, was: qSOFA, NEWS2, SOFA and SIRS. Amplified scales with lactate >2mg/dl, glucose, blood level >190mg/dl and PaCO2 <35mmHg improved predictive value.

Conclusion

Amplified-qSOFA and amplified-NEWS2 scales at Emergency Department may offer a better prognostic of septic patients mortality.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12873-021-00532-1.

Clinical Value of the Lactate/Albumin Ratio and Lactate/Albumin Ratio × Age Score in the Assessment of Prognosis in Patients With Sepsis

Objective: To examine the clinical significance of the blood lactate (Lac)/serum albumin (Alb) ratio and the Lac/Alb × age score for assessing the severity and prognosis of patients with sepsis.

Methods: A total of 8,029 patients with sepsis, aged >18 years were enrolled between June 2001 to October 2012 from the latest version of the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III v.1.4). The general data of the patients were obtained from hospital records and included gender, age, body mass index (BMI), laboratory indices, the sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score, and simplified acute physiology score II (SAPS II). The patients were graded and scored according to their age and then divided into a survival or death group based on their prognosis. The Lac/Alb ratio after ICU admission was calculated and compared between the two groups. The risk factors for death in patients with sepsis were determined using multivariate logistic regression analysis, while mortality was examined using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and survival curve plots. Finally, the values of the Lac/Alb ratio and Lac/Alb × age score for assessing prognosis of patients with sepsis were analyzed and compared.

Results: After items with default values were excluded, a total of 4,555 patients with sepsis were enrolled (2,526 males and 2,029 females). 2,843 cases were classified as the death group and 1,712 cases in the survival group. (1) The mean age, BMI, SOFA and SAPS II scores were higher in the death group than those in the survival group. Significant differences in baseline data between the two groups were also observed. (2) The patients in the death group were divided further into four subgroups according to the quartile of the Lac/Alb ratio from low to high. Comparison of the four subgroups showed that the death rate rose with an increase in the Lac/Alb ratio, while analysis of the survival curve revealed that patients with a higher Lac/Alb ratio had a worse prognosis. (3) Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age ≥ 60 years, overweight (BMI ≥ 24 kg/m²), Lac/Alb ratio ≥ 0.16, SOFA score ≥ 2 points, and SAPS II ≥ 40 points were independent risk factors for death in patients with septic. (4) ROC curve analysis indicated that the SAPS II, Lac/Alb x age score, SOFA, and Lac/Alb ratio were the best predictors of death in patients with sepsis. The Lac/Alb × age score was characterized by its simple acquisition and ability to quickly analyze the prognosis of patients.

Conclusion: (1)A high Lac/Alb ratio is an independent risk factor for death in patients with sepsis. (2) Although the prognosis of sepsis can be accurately and comprehensively assessed by multi-dimensional analysis of multiple indices, the Lac/Alb×age score is more accurate and convenient for providing a general assessment of prognosis, so is worthy of further clinical recognition.

National Early Warning Score Does Not Accurately Predict Mortality for Patients With Infection Outside the Intensive Care Unit: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background: The prognostic value of the national early warning score (NEWS) in patients with infections remains controversial. We aimed to evaluate the prognostic accuracy of NEWS for prediction of in-hospital mortality in patients with infections outside the intensive care unit (ICU). Methods: We searched PubMed, Embase, and Scopus for related articles from January 2012 to April 2021. Sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios were pooled by using the bivariate random-effects model. Overall prognostic performance was summarized by using the area under the curve (AUC). We performed subgroup analyses to assess the prognostic accuracy of NEWS in selected populations. Results: A total of 21 studies with 107,008 participants were included. The pooled sensitivity and specificity of NEWS were 0.71 and 0.60. The pooled AUC of NEWS was 0.70, which was similar to quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA, AUC: 0.70) and better than systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS, AUC: 0.60). However, the sensitivity (0.55) and AUC (0.63) of NEWS were poor in elder patients. The NEWS of 5 was more sensitive, which was a better threshold for activating urgent assessment and treatment. Conclusions: The NEWS had good diagnostic accuracy for early prediction of mortality in patients with infections outside the ICU, and the sensitivity and specificity were more moderate when compared with qSOFA and SIRS. Insufficient sensitivity and poor performance in the elder population may have limitations as an early warning score for adverse outcomes. NEWS should be used for continuous monitoring rather than a single time point predictive tool.