Follow-up after emergency laparotomy suggests high one- and five-year mortality with risk stratified by ASA

Long-term accuracy of the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit risk score: Analysis of the impact of comorbidities on mortality 5 years after emergency laparotomy

BACKGROUND

The National Emergency Laparotomy Audit (NELA) risk prediction tool has demonstrated superiority in predicting 30-day mortality after emergency laparotomy (EL). The aim of our study was to evaluate the accuracy of NELA in calculating long-term (5 year) mortality and determine factors predicting long-term risk of death after EL.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included consecutive patients who underwent EL for any indication other than trauma between May 2012 and June 2017 at a large tertiary and academic teaching center. The primary outcome was all-cause postoperative mortality at 1 and 5 years. The c statistic (<1.0, excellent; <0.90, good; 0.80, fair; 0.70, poor) was used to assess accuracy of the NELA. Multivariable regression was used to identify independent risk factors for 5-year mortality after EL.

RESULTS

From a total of 758 patients, observed mortality continued to increase from 15.4% at 1 year up to 31.4% at 5 years. The NELA risk score accurately classified deceased patients at both 1 year ( c = 0.82; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.78-0.85) and 5 years ( c = 0.82, 0.79-0.85) after EL. History of ascites (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 3.3; 1.0-11.3; p = 0.048), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (aOR, 1.9; 1.1-3.4; p = 0.030), congestive heart failure (aOR, 3.6; 1.2-11.5; p = 0.025), myocardial infarction (aOR, 2.6; 1.5-4.6; p = 0.001), and a new cancer diagnosis (aOR, 2.8; 1.7-4.8; p < 0.0001) were independent prognostic factors for death 5 years after EL.

CONCLUSION

Long-term prognosis after EL remains poor for at least 5 years postoperatively. The NELA score is accurately able to predict risk of death up to 5 years after EL. History of ascites, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, congestive heart failure, myocardial infarction, and a new diagnosis of cancer were independent prognostic factors for long-term mortality after EL.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Prognostic and Epidemiological; Level IV.

Perioperative risk assessment for emergency general surgery in those with multimorbidity or frailty

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

This review explores advances in risk stratification tools and their applicability in identifying and managing high-risk emergency general surgery (EGS) patients.

RECENT FINDINGS

Traditional risk assessment tools have several limitations when applied to complex EGS patients as comorbidities are generally treated in a binary, linear and sequential fashion. Additionally, some tools are only usable in the postoperative period, and some require multidisciplinary involvement and are not suitable in an emergency setting. Frailty in particular - for which there are multiple calculators-maladaptively influences outcomes. Artificial intelligence tools, such as the machine-learning-based POTTER calculator, demonstrate superior performance by addressing nonlinear interactions among patient factors, offering a dynamic and more accurate approach to risk prediction.

SUMMARY

Integrating advanced, data-driven risk assessment tools into clinical practice can help identify and manage high-risk patients as well as forecast outcomes for EGS patients. Such tools are intended to trigger preoperative interventions as well as discussions that ensure goal-concordant care, align expectations with anticipated outcomes and support both facility and patient-relevant outcomes.

Novel Textbook Outcomes following emergency laparotomy: Delphi exercise

BACKGROUND

Textbook outcomes are composite outcome measures that reflect the ideal overall experience for patients. There are many of these in the elective surgery literature but no textbook outcomes have been proposed for patients following emergency laparotomy. The aim was to achieve international consensus amongst experts and patients for the best Textbook Outcomes for non-trauma and trauma emergency laparotomy.

METHODS

A modified Delphi exercise was undertaken with three planned rounds to achieve consensus regarding the best Textbook Outcomes based on the category, number and importance (Likert scale of 1-5) of individual outcome measures. There were separate questions for non-trauma and trauma. A patient engagement exercise was undertaken after round 2 to inform the final round.

RESULTS

A total of 337 participants from 53 countries participated in all three rounds of the exercise. The final Textbook Outcomes were divided into 'early' and 'longer-term'. For non-trauma patients the proposed early Textbook Outcome was 'Discharged from hospital without serious postoperative complications (Clavien-Dindo ≥ grade III; including intra-abdominal sepsis, organ failure, unplanned re-operation or death). For trauma patients it was 'Discharged from hospital without unexpected transfusion after haemostasis, and no serious postoperative complications (adapted Clavien-Dindo for trauma ≥ grade III; including intra-abdominal sepsis, organ failure, unplanned re-operation on or death)'. The longer-term Textbook Outcome for both non-trauma and trauma was 'Achieved the early Textbook Outcome, and restoration of baseline quality of life at 1 year'.

CONCLUSION

Early and longer-term Textbook Outcomes have been agreed by an international consensus of experts for non-trauma and trauma emergency laparotomy. These now require clinical validation with patient data.

Combining sarcopenia and ASA status to inform emergency laparotomy outcomes: could it be that simple?

BACKGROUND

Risk assessment for emergency laparotomy (EL) is important for guiding decision-making and anticipating the level of perioperative care in acute clinical settings. While established tools such as the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program calculator (ACS-NSQIP), the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit Risk Prediction Calculator (NELA) and the Portsmouth Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity calculation (P-POSSUM) are accurate predictors for mortality, there has been increasing recognition of the benefits from including measurements for frailty in a simple and quantifiable manner. Psoas muscle to 3rd lumbar vertebra area ratio (PM:L3) measured on CT scans was proven to have a significant inverse association with 30-, 90- and 365-day mortality in EL patients.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis was conducted of 500 patients admitted to four Australian hospitals who underwent EL during 2016-2017, and had contemporaneous abdomino-pelvic CT scans. Radiological sarcopenia was measured as PM:L3 ratios. ASC-NSQIP, NELA and P-POSSUM were retrospectively calculated. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression modelling was used to assess these ratios and scores, as well as American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) classification separated into ASA I-III and IV/V (simplified ASA), as potential predictors of 30-, 90- and 365-day mortality.

RESULTS

PM:L3, simplified ASA, ACS-NSQIP, NELA and P-POSSUM were each statistically significant predictors of 30-day, 90-day and 365-day mortality (P < 0.001). Logistic regression models of 30-, 90- and 365-day mortality combining PM:L3 (P = 0.001) and simplified ASA (P < 0.001) exhibited AUCs of 0.838 (0.780, 0.896), 0.805 (0.751, 0.860) and 0.775 (0.729, 0.822), respectively, which were comparable to that of ACS-NSQIP and NELA.

CONCLUSION

Combining the semi-physiological parameter ASA classification with PM:L3 provides a quick and simple alternative to the more complex established risk assessment scores and is superior to PM:L3 alone.