Anticipating Change: How Many Acute Care Hospital Beds Will Manitoba Regions Need in 2020?

Same day discharge following elective, minimally invasive, colorectal surgery : A review of enhanced recovery protocols and early outcomes by the SAGES Colorectal Surgical Committee with recommendations regarding patient selection, remote monitoring, and successful implementation

BACKGROUND

As enhanced recovery programs (ERPs) have continued to evolve, the length of hospitalization (LOS) following elective minimally invasive colorectal surgery has continued to decline. Further refinements in multimodal perioperative pain management strategies have resulted in reduced opioid consumption. The interest in ambulatory colectomy has dramatically accelerated during the COVID-19 pandemic. Severe restrictions in hospital capacity and fear of COVID transmission forced surgical teams to rethink strategies to further reduce length of inpatient stay.

METHODS

Members of the SAGES Colorectal Surgery Committee began reviewing the emergence of SDD protocols and early publications for SDD in 2019. The authors met at regular intervals during 2020-2022 period reviewing SDD protocols, safe patient selection criteria, surrogates for postoperative monitoring, and early outcomes.

RESULTS

Early experience with SDD protocols for elective, minimally invasive colorectal surgery suggests that SDD is feasible and safe in well-selected patients and procedures. SDD protocols are associated with reduced opioid use and prescribing. Patient perception and experience with SDD is favourable. For early adopters, SDD has been the natural evolution of well-developed ERPs. Like all ERPs, SDD begins in the office setting, identifying the correct patient and procedure, aligning goals and objectives, and the perioperative education of the patient and their supporting significant others. A thorough discussion with the patient regarding expected activity levels, oral intake, and pain control post operatively lays the foundation for a successful application of SDD programs. These observations may not apply to all patient populations, institutions, practice types, or within the scope of an existing ERP. However, if the underlying principles of SDD can be incorporated into an existing institutional ERP, it may further reduce the incidence of post operative ileus, prolonged LOS, and improve the effectiveness of oral analgesia for postoperative pain management and reduced opioid use and prescribing.

CONCLUSIONS

The SAGES Colorectal Surgery Committee has performed a comprehensive review of the early experience with SDD. This manuscript summarizes SDD early results and considerations for safe and stepwise implementation of SDD with a specific focus on ERP evolution, patient selection, remote monitoring, and other relevant considerations based on hospital settings and surgical practices.

Extending floating catchment area methods to estimate future hospital bed capacity requirements

A new hospital in north-west Sydney, Australia is to start construction in the year 2023. However, the number of emergency department beds/treatment spaces (EDBs) that it will contain is yet to be determined, as this region is expected to have relatively high population growth from year 2021 to year 2036. In this paper, floating catchment area (FCA) methods were employed to estimate the required number of EDBs for this new hospital. Metrics including spatial accessibility index and spatial equity were calculated based on the predicted populations for 2021 and 2036 using government sourced data. Specifically, potential spatial accessibility and horizontal spatial equity were employed for this paper. Mathematical optimisation was used to determine the most efficient distribution of EDBs throughout different hospitals in this region in 2036. The best allocation of capacity across the study area that simultaneously improved average spatial accessibility and improved spatial equity relative to the metrics of 2021 was found. Traditional methods of healthcare planning seldom consider the spatial location of populations or the travel cost to hospitals. This paper presents a novel method to how capacity of future services are determined due to population growth. These results can be compared to traditional methods to access the validity of the methods outlined in this paper.

A methodology for estimating hospital bed need in Manitoba in 2020

A team of health researchers of the Manitoba Centre for Health Policy at the University of Manitoba was asked to forecast the number of acute care hospital beds that will be required to meet the needs of residents of the province of Manitoba by the year 2020. Methodological considerations for this request included identification of factors expected to affect bed use in the future, and how to account for these factors. The objective of this paper is to describe these methodological considerations, how decisions were made, and steps taken in our approach to this problem. The actual projections and their implications are the subject of another contribution in this issue of the journal (Finlayson, Stewart, Tate, MacWilliam & Roos, 2005).