A method of determining where to target surveillance efforts in heterogeneous epidemiological systems

Using 'sentinel' plants to improve early detection of invasive plant pathogens

Infectious diseases of plants present an ongoing and increasing threat to international biosecurity, with wide-ranging implications. An important challenge in plant disease management is achieving early detection of invading pathogens, which requires effective surveillance through the implementation of appropriate monitoring programmes. However, when monitoring relies on visual inspection as a means of detection, surveillance is often hindered by a long incubation period (delay from infection to symptom onset) during which plants may be infectious but not displaying visible symptoms. 'Sentinel' plants-alternative susceptible host species that display visible symptoms of infection more rapidly-could be introduced to at-risk populations and included in monitoring programmes to act as early warning beacons for infection. However, while sentinel hosts exhibit faster disease progression and so allow pathogens to be detected earlier, this often comes at a cost: faster disease progression typically promotes earlier onward transmission. Here, we construct a computational model of pathogen transmission to explore this trade-off and investigate how including sentinel plants in monitoring programmes could facilitate earlier detection of invasive plant pathogens. Using Xylella fastidiosa infection in Olea europaea (European olive) as a current high profile case study, for which Catharanthus roseus (Madagascan periwinkle) is a candidate sentinel host, we apply a Bayesian optimisation algorithm to determine the optimal number of sentinel hosts to introduce for a given sampling effort, as well as the optimal division of limited surveillance resources between crop and sentinel plants. Our results demonstrate that including sentinel plants in monitoring programmes can reduce the expected prevalence of infection upon outbreak detection substantially, increasing the feasibility of local outbreak containment.

Epidemiologically-based strategies for the detection of emerging plant pathogens

Emerging pests and pathogens of plants are a major threat to natural and managed ecosystems worldwide. Whilst it is well accepted that surveillance activities are key to both the early detection of new incursions and the ability to identify pest-free areas, the performance of these activities must be evaluated to ensure they are fit for purpose. This requires consideration of the number of potential hosts inspected or tested as well as the epidemiology of the pathogen and the detection method used. In the case of plant pathogens, one particular concern is whether the visual inspection of plant hosts for signs of disease is able to detect the presence of these pathogens at low prevalences, given that it takes time for these symptoms to develop. One such pathogen is the ST53 strain of the vector-borne bacterial pathogen Xylella fastidiosa in olive hosts, which was first identified in southern Italy in 2013. Additionally, X. fastidiosa ST53 in olive has a rapid rate of spread, which could also have important implications for surveillance. In the current study, we evaluate how well visual surveillance would be expected to perform for this pathogen and investigate whether molecular testing of either tree hosts or insect vectors offer feasible alternatives. Our results identify the main constraints to each of these strategies and can be used to inform and improve both current and future surveillance activities.

Quantifying the hidden costs of imperfect detection for early detection surveillance

The global spread of pathogens poses an increasing threat to health, ecosystems and agriculture worldwide. As early detection of new incursions is key to effective control, new diagnostic tests that can detect pathogen presence shortly after initial infection hold great potential for detection of infection in individual hosts. However, these tests may be too expensive to be implemented at the sampling intensities required for early detection of a new epidemic at the population level. To evaluate the trade-off between earlier and/or more reliable detection and higher deployment costs, we need to consider the impacts of test performance, test cost and pathogen epidemiology. Regarding test performance, the period before new infections can be first detected and the probability of detecting them are of particular importance. We propose a generic framework that can be easily used to evaluate a variety of different detection methods and identify important characteristics of the pathogen and the detection method to consider when planning early detection surveillance. We demonstrate the application of our method using the plant pathogen Phytophthora ramorum in the UK, and find that visual inspec-tion for this pathogen is a more cost-effective strategy for early detection surveillance than an early detection diagnostic test.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control’. This theme issue is linked with the earlier issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes’.

Canine olfactory detection of a vectored phytobacterial pathogen, Liberibacter asiaticus, and integration with disease control

Exotic infectious pathogens, like citrus huanglongbing (HLB), are increasingly introduced into agrosystems. Early detection is the key to mitigating their destructive effects. Human visual assessment is insufficiently sensitive to detect new plant infections in a responsive timeframe, and molecular assays are expensive and not easily deployable over large crop landscapes. We turned to detector dogs, an ancient technology, which can rapidly survey large plantings without laborious sample collection or laboratory processing. Dogs detected infections (>99% accuracy) weeks to years prior to visual survey and molecular methods and were highly specific, accurately discriminating target pathogens from other pathogens. Epidemiological models indicated that dogs were more effective and economical than current early detection methods for sustainable disease control.

Early detection and rapid response are crucial to avoid severe epidemics of exotic pathogens. However, most detection methods (molecular, serological, chemical) are logistically limited for large-scale survey of outbreaks due to intrinsic sampling issues and laboratory throughput. Evaluation of 10 canines trained for detection of a severe exotic phytobacterial arboreal pathogen, Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus (CLas), demonstrated 0.9905 accuracy, 0.8579 sensitivity, and 0.9961 specificity. In a longitudinal study, cryptic CLas infections that remained subclinical visually were detected within 2 wk postinfection compared with 1 to 32 mo for qPCR. When allowed to interrogate a diverse range of in vivo pathogens infecting an international citrus pathogen collection, canines only reacted to Liberibacter pathogens of citrus and not to other bacterial, viral, or spiroplasma pathogens. Canines trained to detect CLas-infected citrus also alerted on CLas-infected tobacco and periwinkle, CLas-bearing psyllid insect vectors, and CLas cocultured with other bacteria but at CLas titers below the level of molecular detection. All of these observations suggest that canines can detect CLas directly rather than only host volatiles produced by the infection. Detection in orchards and residential properties was real time, ∼2 s per tree. Spatiotemporal epidemic simulations demonstrated that control of pathogen prevalence was possible and economically sustainable when canine detection was followed by intervention (i.e., culling infected individuals), whereas current methods of molecular (qPCR) and visual detection failed to contribute to the suppression of an exponential trajectory of infection.