Approximate Bayesian estimation of coevolutionary arms races

Interacting phenotypes and the coevolutionary process: Interspecific indirect genetic effects alter coevolutionary dynamics

Coevolution occurs when species interact to influence one another's fitness, resulting in reciprocal evolutionary change. In many coevolving lineages, trait expression in one species is modified by the genotypes and phenotypes of the other, forming feedback loops reminiscent of models of intraspecific social evolution. Here, we adapt the theory of within-species social evolution, characterized by indirect genetic effects and social selection imposed by interacting individuals, to the case of interspecific interactions. In a trait-based model, we derive general expressions for multivariate evolutionary change in two species and the expected between-species covariance in evolutionary change when selection varies across space. We show that reciprocal interspecific indirect genetic effects can dominate the coevolutionary process and drive patterns of correlated evolution beyond what is expected from direct selection alone. In extreme cases, interspecific indirect genetic effects can lead to coevolution when selection does not covary between species or even when one species lacks genetic variance. Moreover, our model indicates that interspecific indirect genetic effects may interact in complex ways with cross-species selection to determine the course of coevolution. Importantly, our model makes empirically testable predictions for how different forms of reciprocal interactions contribute to the coevolutionary process.

Coevolutionary Arms Races and the Conditions for the Maintenance of Mutualism

AbstractEmpirical evidence suggests that coevolutionary arms races between flowering plants and their pollinators can occur in wild populations. In extreme cases, trait escalation may result in evolutionary switching from mutualism to parasitism. However, theoretical approaches to studying coevolution typically assume fixed types of ecological interactions and ignore the evolution of absolute fitness. Here, we introduce a novel approach to track the evolution of absolute fitness as a framework to determine when escalatory coevolution results in a switch from mutualism to parasitism. We apply our approach to two previously studied mechanisms mediating selection as a function of phenotype. Our results demonstrate that interactions mediated by a "bigger-is-better" mechanism evolve toward parasitism. In contrast, generalizing the classical trait-matching mechanism so that the fitness of each species is optimized when trait values mismatch by a particular amount, we find theoretical support for indefinite trait exaggeration that preserves mutualistic interactions. Building on our results, we discuss the consequences of coevolutionary arms races for the maintenance of cheating. Moving beyond pairwise interactions, we consider the ramifications of coevolution in a South African pollination network for the evolution of parasitism. Future work extending our approach beyond pairwise interactions can lead to a framework for understanding the evolution of parasitism in mutualistic networks and further insights into the structure and dynamic nature of ecological communities in general.

Novel genomic approaches to study antagonistic coevolution between hosts and parasites

Host-parasite coevolution is ubiquitous, shaping genetic and phenotypic diversity and the evolutionary trajectory of interacting species. With the advances of high throughput sequencing technologies applicable to model and non-model organisms alike, it is now feasible to study in greater detail (a) the genetic underpinnings of coevolution, (b) the speed and type of dynamics at coevolving loci, and (c) the genomic consequences of coevolution. This review focuses on three recently developed approaches that leverage information from host and parasite full genome data simultaneously to pinpoint coevolving loci and draw inference on the coevolutionary history. First, co-genome-wide association study (co-GWAS) methods allow pinpointing the loci underlying host-parasite interactions. These methods focus on detecting associations between genetic variants and the outcome of experimental infection tests or on correlations between genomes of naturally infected hosts and their infecting parasites. Second, extensions to population genomics methods can detect genes under coevolution and infer the coevolutionary history, such as fitness costs. Third, correlations between host and parasite population size in time are indicative of coevolution, and polymorphism levels across independent spatially distributed populations of hosts and parasites can reveal coevolutionary loci and infer coevolutionary history. We describe the principles of these three approaches and discuss their advantages and limitations based on coevolutionary theory. We present recommendations for their application to various host (prokaryotes, fungi, plants, and animals) and parasite (viruses, bacteria, fungi, and macroparasites) species. We conclude by pointing out methodological and theoretical gaps to be filled to extract maximum information from full genome data and thereby to shed light on the molecular underpinnings of coevolution.

Inference of coevolutionary dynamics and parameters from host and parasite polymorphism data of repeated experiments

There is a long-standing interest in understanding host-parasite coevolutionary dynamics and associated fitness effects. Increasing amounts of genomic data for both interacting species offer a promising source to identify candidate loci and to infer the main parameters of the past coevolutionary history. However, so far no method exists to perform the latter. By coupling a gene-for-gene model with coalescent simulations, we first show that three types of biological costs, namely, resistance, infectivity and infection, define the allele frequencies at the internal equilibrium point of the coevolution model. These in return determine the strength of selective signatures at the coevolving host and parasite loci. We apply an Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) approach on simulated datasets to infer these costs by jointly integrating host and parasite polymorphism data at the coevolving loci. To control for the effect of genetic drift on coevolutionary dynamics, we assume that 10 or 30 repetitions are available from controlled experiments or several natural populations. We study two scenarios: 1) the cost of infection and population sizes (host and parasite) are unknown while costs of infectivity and resistance are known, and 2) all three costs are unknown while populations sizes are known. Using the ABC model choice procedure, we show that for both scenarios, we can distinguish with high accuracy pairs of coevolving host and parasite loci from pairs of neutrally evolving loci, though the statistical power decreases with higher cost of infection. The accuracy of parameter inference is high under both scenarios especially when using both host and parasite data because parasite polymorphism data do inform on costs applying to the host and vice-versa. As the false positive rate to detect pairs of genes under coevolution is small, we suggest that our method complements recently developed methods to identify host and parasite candidate loci for functional studies.