Estimating epidemiological parameters from experiments in vector access to host plants, the method of matching gradients

Current and future scenarios of suitability and expansion of cassava brown streak disease, Bemisia tabaci species complex, and cassava planting in Africa

Cassava (Manihot esculenta) is among the most important staple crops globally, with an imperative role in supporting the Sustainable Development Goal of 'Zero hunger'. In sub-Saharan Africa, it is cultivated mainly by millions of subsistence farmers who depend directly on it for their socio-economic welfare. However, its yield in some regions has been threatened by several diseases, especially the cassava brown streak disease (CBSD). Changes in climatic conditions enhance the risk of the disease spreading to other planting regions. Here, we characterise the current and future distribution of cassava, CBSD and whitefly Bemisia tabaci species complex in Africa, using an ensemble of four species distribution models (SDMs): boosted regression trees, maximum entropy, generalised additive model, and multivariate adaptive regression splines, together with 28 environmental covariates. We collected 1,422 and 1,169 occurrence records for cassava and Bemisia tabaci species complex from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility and 750 CBSD occurrence records from published literature and systematic surveys in East Africa. Our results identified isothermality as having the highest contribution to the current distribution of cassava, while elevation was the top predictor of the current distribution of Bemisia tabaci species complex. Cassava harvested area and precipitation of the driest month contributed the most to explain the current distribution of CBSD outbreaks. The geographic distributions of these target species are also expected to shift under climate projection scenarios for two mid-century periods (2041-2060 and 2061-2080). Our results indicate that major cassava producers, like Cameron, Ivory Coast, Ghana, and Nigeria, are at greater risk of invasion of CBSD. These results highlight the need for firmer agricultural management and climate-change mitigation actions in Africa to combat new outbreaks and to contain the spread of CBSD.

Numerical performances through artificial neural networks for solving the vector-borne disease with lifelong immunity

The current study is related to solve a nonlinear vector-borne disease with a lifelong immunity model (VDLIM) by designing a computational stochastic framework using the strength of artificial Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation neural network (ALMBNN). The detail of the nonlinear VDLIM is provided along with its five classes. The numerical performances of the results have been presented using the ALMBNN by taking three different cases to solve the nonlinear VDLIM using the training, sample data, testing and authentication. The selection of the statics is selected as 80% for training, while the data for both testing and validations is applied 10%. The results of the nonlinear VDLIM are performed using the ALMBNN and the correctness of the scheme is observed to compare the results with the reference solutions. The calculated performance of the results to solve the nonlinear VDLIM is applied for the reduction of the mean square error. In order to check the competence, efficacy, exactness and reliability of the ALMBNN, the numerical investigations using the proportional procedures based on the MSE, correlation, regression and error histograms are presented.

A new method for the analysis of access period experiments, illustrated with whitefly-borne cassava mosaic begomovirus

Reports of low transmission efficiency, of a cassava mosaic begomovirus (CMB) in Bemisia tabaci whitefly, diminished the perceived importance of whitefly in CMB epidemics. Studies indicating synergies between B. tabaci and CMB prompt a reconsideration of this assessment. In this paper, we analysed the retention period and infectiousness of CMB-carrying B. tabaci as well as B. tabaci susceptibility to CMB. We assessed the role of low laboratory insect survival in historic reports of a 9d virus retention period. To do this, we introduced Bayesian analyses to an important class of experiment in plant pathology. We were unable to reject a null hypothesis of life-long CMB retention when we accounted for low insect survival. Our analysis confirmed low insect survival, with insects surviving on average for around three days of transfers from the original infected plant to subsequent test plants. Use of the new analysis to account for insect death may lead to re-calibration of retention periods for other important insect-borne plant pathogens. In addition, we showed that B. tabaci susceptibility to CMB is substantially higher than previously thought. We also introduced a technique for high resolution analysis of retention period, showing that B. tabaci infectiousness with CMB was increasing over the first five days of infection.

Modelling cassava production and pest management under biotic and abiotic constraints

We summarise modelling studies of the most economically important cassava diseases and arthropods, highlighting research gaps where modelling can contribute to the better management of these in the areas of surveillance, control, and host-pest dynamics understanding the effects of climate change and future challenges in modelling. For over 30 years, experimental and theoretical studies have sought to better understand the epidemiology of cassava diseases and arthropods that affect production and lead to considerable yield loss, to detect and control them more effectively. In this review, we consider the contribution of modelling studies to that understanding. We summarise studies of the most economically important cassava pests, including cassava mosaic disease, cassava brown streak disease, the cassava mealybug, and the cassava green mite. We focus on conceptual models of system dynamics rather than statistical methods. Through our analysis we identified areas where modelling has contributed and areas where modelling can improve and further contribute. Firstly, we identify research challenges in the modelling developed for the surveillance, detection and control of cassava pests, and propose approaches to overcome these. We then look at the contributions that modelling has accomplished in the understanding of the interaction and dynamics of cassava and its' pests, highlighting success stories and areas where improvement is needed. Thirdly, we look at the possibility that novel modelling applications can achieve to provide insights into the impacts and uncertainties of climate change. Finally, we identify research gaps, challenges, and opportunities where modelling can develop and contribute for the management of cassava pests, highlighting the recent advances in understanding molecular mechanisms of plant defence.

Competency of Neural Networks for the Numerical Treatment of Nonlinear Host-Vector-Predator Model

The aim of this work is to introduce a stochastic solver based on the Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation neural networks (LMBNNs) for the nonlinear host-vector-predator model. The nonlinear host-vector-predator model is dependent upon five classes, susceptible/infected populations of host plant, susceptible/infected vectors population, and population of predator. The numerical performances through the LMBNN solver are observed for three different types of the nonlinear host-vector-predator model using the authentication, testing, sample data, and training. The proportions of these data are chosen as a larger part, i.e., 80% for training and 10% for validation and testing, respectively. The nonlinear host-vector-predator model is numerically treated through the LMBNNs, and comparative investigations have been performed using the reference solutions. The obtained results of the model are presented using the LMBNNs to reduce the mean square error (MSE). For the competence, exactness, consistency, and efficacy of the LMBNNs, the numerical results using the proportional measures through the MSE, error histograms (EHs), and regression/correlation are performed.

Plant Defense Networks against Insect-Borne Pathogens

Upon infection with insect-borne microbial pathogens, plants are exposed to two types of damage simultaneously. Over the past decade, numerous molecular studies have been conducted to understand how plants respond to pathogens or herbivores. However, investigations of host responses typically focus on a single stress and are performed under static laboratory conditions. In this review, we highlight research that sheds light on how plants deploy broad-spectrum mechanisms against both vector-borne pathogens and insect vectors. Among the host genes involved in multistress resistance, many are involved in innate immunity and phytohormone signaling (especially jasmonate and salicylic acid). The potential for genome editing or chemical modulators to fine-tune crop defensive signaling, to develop sustainable methods to control insect-borne diseases, is discussed.

Post-COVID-19 Action: Guarding Africa's Crops against Viral Epidemics Requires Research Capacity Building That Unifies a Trio of Transdisciplinary Interventions

The COVID-19 pandemic has shown that understanding the genomics of a virus, diagnostics and breaking virus transmission is essential in managing viral pandemics. The same lessons can apply for plant viruses. There are plant viruses that have severely disrupted crop production in multiple countries, as recently seen with maize lethal necrosis disease in eastern and southern Africa. High-throughput sequencing (HTS) is needed to detect new viral threats. Equally important is building local capacity to develop the tools required for rapid diagnosis of plant viruses. Most plant viruses are insect-vectored, hence, biological insights on virus transmission are vital in modelling disease spread. Research in Africa in these three areas is in its infancy and disjointed. Despite intense interest, uptake of HTS by African researchers is hampered by infrastructural gaps. The use of whole-genome information to develop field-deployable diagnostics on the continent is virtually inexistent. There is fledgling research into plant-virus-vector interactions to inform modelling of viral transmission. The gains so far have been modest but encouraging, and therefore must be consolidated. For this, I propose the creation of a new Research Centre for Africa. This bold investment is needed to secure the future of Africa’s crops from insect-vectored viral diseases.