An antigenic diversification threshold for falciparum malaria transmission at high endemicity

Hyper-diverse antigenic variation and resilience to transmission-reducing intervention in falciparum malaria

Intervention against falciparum malaria in high transmission regions remains challenging, with relaxation of control efforts typically followed by rapid resurgence. Resilience to intervention co-occurs with incomplete immunity, whereby children eventually become protected from severe disease but not infection and a large transmission reservoir results from high asymptomatic prevalence across all ages. Incomplete immunity relates to the vast antigenic variation of the parasite, with the major surface antigen of the blood stage of infection encoded by the multigene family known as var. Recent deep sampling of var sequences from individual isolates in northern Ghana showed that parasite population structure exhibited persistent features of high-transmission regions despite the considerable decrease in prevalence during transient intervention with indoor residual spraying (IRS). We ask whether despite such apparent limited impact, the transmission system had been brought close to a transition in both prevalence and resurgence ability. With a stochastic agent-based model, we investigate the existence of such a transition to pre-elimination with intervention intensity, and of molecular indicators informative of its approach. We show that resurgence ability decreases sharply and nonlinearly across a narrow region of intervention intensities in model simulations, and identify informative molecular indicators based on var gene sequences. Their application to the survey data indicates that the transmission system in northern Ghana was brought close to transition by IRS. These results suggest that sustaining and intensifying intervention would have pushed malaria dynamics to a slow-rebound regime with an increased probability of local parasite extinction.

An immune memory-structured SIS epidemiological model for hyperdiverse pathogens

A hyperdiverse class of pathogens of humans and wildlife, including the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum, relies on multigene families to encode antigenic variation. As a result, high (asymptomatic) prevalence is observed despite high immunity in local populations under high-transmission settings. The vast diversity of "strains" and genes encoding this variation challenges the application of established models for the population dynamics of such infectious diseases. Agent-based models have been formulated to address theory on strain coexistence and structure, but their complexity can limit application to gain insights into population dynamics. Motivated by P. falciparum malaria, we develop an alternative formulation in the form of a structured susceptible-infected-susceptible population model in continuous time, where individuals are classified not only by age, as is standard, but also by the diversity of parasites they have been exposed to and retain in their specific immune memory. We analyze the population dynamics and bifurcation structure of this system of partial-differential equations, showing the existence of alternative steady states and an associated tipping point with transmission intensity. We attribute the critical transition to the positive feedback between parasite genetic diversity and force of infection. Basins of attraction show that intervention must drastically reduce diversity to prevent a rebound to high infection levels. Results emphasize the importance of explicitly considering pathogen diversity and associated specific immune memory in the population dynamics of hyperdiverse epidemiological systems. This statement is discussed in a more general context for ecological competition systems with hyperdiverse trait spaces.

Unravelling var complexity: Relationship between DBLα types and var genes in Plasmodium falciparum

The enormous diversity and complexity of var genes that diversify rapidly by recombination has led to the exclusion of assembly of these genes from major genome initiatives (e.g., Pf6). A scalable solution in epidemiological surveillance of var genes is to use a small ‘tag’ region encoding the immunogenic DBLα domain as a marker to estimate var diversity. As var genes diversify by recombination, it is not clear the extent to which the same tag can appear in multiple var genes. This relationship between marker and gene has not been investigated in natural populations. Analyses of in vitro recombination within and between var genes have suggested that this relationship would not be exclusive. Using a dataset of publicly-available assembled var sequences, we test this hypothesis by studying DBLα-var relationships for four study sites in four countries: Pursat (Cambodia) and Mae Sot (Thailand), representing low malaria transmission, and Navrongo (Ghana) and Chikwawa (Malawi), representing high malaria transmission. In all study sites, DBLα-var relationships were shown to be predominantly 1-to-1, followed by a second largest proportion of 1-to-2 DBLα-var relationships. This finding indicates that DBLα tags can be used to estimate not just DBLα diversity but var gene diversity when applied in a local endemic area. Epidemiological applications of this result are discussed.

Frequency-Dependent Competition Between Strains Imparts Persistence to Perturbations in a Model of Plasmodium falciparum Malaria Transmission

In high-transmission endemic regions, local populations of Plasmodium falciparum exhibit vast diversity of the var genes encoding its major surface antigen, with each parasite comprising multiple copies from this diverse gene pool. This strategy to evade the immune system through large combinatorial antigenic diversity is common to other hyperdiverse pathogens. It underlies a series of fundamental epidemiological characteristics, including large reservoirs of transmission from high prevalence of asymptomatics and long-lasting infections. Previous theory has shown that negative frequency-dependent selection (NFDS) mediated by the acquisition of specific immunity by hosts structures the diversity of var gene repertoires, or strains, in a pattern of limiting similarity that is both non-random and non-neutral. A combination of stochastic agent-based models and network analyses has enabled the development and testing of theory in these complex adaptive systems, where assembly of local parasite diversity occurs under frequency-dependent selection and large pools of variation. We show here the application of these approaches to theory comparing the response of the malaria transmission system to intervention when strain diversity is assembled under (competition-based) selection vs. a form of neutrality, where immunity depends only on the number but not the genetic identity of previous infections. The transmission system is considerably more persistent under NFDS, exhibiting a lower extinction probability despite comparable prevalence during intervention. We explain this pattern on the basis of the structure of strain diversity, in particular the more pronounced fraction of highly dissimilar parasites. For simulations that survive intervention, prevalence under specific immunity is lower than under neutrality, because the recovery of diversity is considerably slower than that of prevalence and decreased var gene diversity reduces parasite transmission. A Principal Component Analysis of network features describing parasite similarity reveals that despite lower overall diversity, NFDS is quickly restored after intervention constraining strain structure and maintaining patterns of limiting similarity important to parasite persistence. Given the described enhanced persistence under perturbation, intervention efforts will likely require longer times than the usual practice to eliminate P. falciparum populations. We discuss implications of our findings and potential analogies for ecological communities with non-neutral assembly processes involving frequency-dependence.