Prioritizing the needs of children in a changing climate

Identifying groups at-risk to extreme heat: Intersections of age, race/ethnicity, and socioeconomic status

Anthropogenic climate change has resulted in a significant rise in extreme heat events, exerting considerable but unequal impacts on morbidity and mortality. Numerous studies have identified inequities in heat exposure across different groups, but social identities have often been viewed in isolation from each other. Children (5 and under) and older adults (65 and older) also face elevated risks of heat-related health impacts. We employ an intersectional cross-classificatory approach to analyze the distribution of heat exposure between sociodemographic categories split into age groups in the contiguous US. We utilize high-resolution daily air temperature data to establish three census tract-level heat metrics (i.e., average summer temperature, heat waves, and heat island days). We pair those metrics with American Community Survey estimates on racial/ethnic, socioeconomic, and disability status by age to calculate population weighted mean exposures and absolute disparity metrics. Our findings indicate few substantive differences between age groups overall, but more substantial differences between sociodemographic categories within age groups, with children and older adults from socially marginalized backgrounds facing greater exposure than adults from similar backgrounds. When looking at sociodemographic differences by age, people of color of any age and older adults without health insurance emerge as the most exposed groups. This study identifies groups who are most exposed to extreme heat. Policy and program interventions aimed at reducing the impacts of heat should take these disparities in exposure into account to achieve health equity objectives.

Hidden danger: The long-term effect of ultrafine particles on mortality and its sociodemographic disparities in New York State

Although previous studies have shown increased health risks of particulate matters, few have evaluated the long-term health impacts of ultrafine particles (UFPs or PM0.1, ≤ 0.1 µm in diameter). This study assessed the association between long-term exposure to UFPs and mortality in New York State (NYS), including total non-accidental and cause-specific mortalities, sociodemographic disparities and seasonal trends. Collecting data from a comprehensive chemical transport model and NYS Vital Records, we used the interquartile range (IQR) and high-level UFPs (≥75 % percentile) as indicators to link with mortalities. Our modified difference-in-difference model controlled for other pollutants, meteorological factors, spatial and temporal confounders. The findings indicate that long-term UFPs exposure significantly increases the risk of non-accidental mortality (RR=1.10, 95 % CI: 1.05, 1.17), cardiovascular mortality (RR=1.11, 95 % CI: 1.05, 1.18) particularly for cerebrovascular (RR=1.21, 95 % CI: 1.10, 1.35) and pulmonary heart diseases (RR=1.33, 95 % CI: 1.13, 1.57), and respiratory mortality (borderline significance, RR=1.09, 95 % CI: 1.00, 1.18). Hispanics (RR=1.13, 95 % CI: 1.00, 1.29) and non-Hispanic Blacks (RR=1.40, 95 % CI: 1.16, 1.68) experienced significantly higher mortality risk after exposure to UFPs, compared to non-Hispanic Whites. Children under five, older adults, non-NYC residents, and winter seasons are more susceptible to UFPs' effects.

The Joint Effects of Thunderstorms and Power Outages on Respiratory-Related Emergency Visits and Modifying and Mediating Factors of This Relationship

BACKGROUND

While limited studies have evaluated the health impacts of thunderstorms and power outages (POs) separately, few have assessed their joint effects. We aimed to investigate the individual and joint effects of both thunderstorms and POs on respiratory diseases, to identify disparities by demographics, and to examine the modifications and mediations by meteorological factors and air pollution.

METHODS

Distributed lag nonlinear models were used to examine exposures during three periods (i.e., days with both thunderstorms and POs, thunderstorms only, and POs only) in relation to emergency department visits for respiratory diseases (2005-2018) compared to controls (no thunderstorm/no PO) in New York State (NYS) while controlling for confounders. Interactions between thunderstorms and weather factors or air pollutants on health were assessed. The disparities by demographics and seasons and the mediative effects by particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 μ m (PM 2.5 ) and relative humidity (RH) were also evaluated.

RESULTS

Thunderstorms and POs were independently associated with total and six subtypes of respiratory diseases in NYS [highest risk ratio (RR) = 1.12; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.08, 1.17], but the impact was stronger when they co-occurred (highest RR = 1.44; 95% CI: 1.22, 1.70), especially during grass weed, ragweed, and tree pollen seasons. The stronger thunderstorm/PO joint effects were observed on chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases, bronchitis, and asthma (lasted 0-10 d) and were higher among residents who lived in rural areas, were uninsured, were of Hispanic ethnicity, were 6-17 or over 65 years old, and during spring and summer. The number of comorbidities was significantly higher by 0.299-0.782/case. Extreme cold/heat, high RH, PM 2.5 , and ozone concentrations significantly modified the thunderstorm-health effect on both multiplicative and additive scales. Over 35% of the thunderstorm effects were mediated by PM 2.5 and RH.

CONCLUSION

Thunderstorms accompanied by POs showed the strongest respiratory effects. There were large disparities in thunderstorm-health associations by demographics. Meteorological factors and air pollution levels modified and mediated the thunderstorm-health effects. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP13237.

Disparities in the impact of heat wave definitions on emergency department visits during the first year of life among preterm and full-term infants in California

INTRODUCTION

Heat waves will be aggravated due to climate change, making this a critical public health threat. However, heat wave definitions to activate alert systems can be ambiguous, highlighting the need to assess a range of definitions to identify those that contribute to the most adverse health outcomes. Additionally, children are highly susceptible to the impacts of heat waves, especially infants, despite the lack of focus on this subpopulation. We aimed to assess the relationship between 30 heat wave definitions and the first all-cause emergency department (ED) visits for California infants. We also examined modification of this relationship by preterm birth status and demographic characteristics to identify possible health disparities.

METHODS

Live-born, singleton deliveries from the Study of Outcomes in Mothers and Infants born in 2014-2018 were included. Thirty heat wave definitions were assessed based on temperature metrics (minimum/maximum temperatures), thresholds (90th; 92.5th; 95th; 97.5th; 99th percentiles), and duration (1-; 2-; 3-days). A time-stratified case-crossover design assessed heat wave impacts on ED visits using infants with a warm season ED visit (May-October) within the first year of life (n = 228,250). Effect modification by preterm birth status, age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, and delivery payment type was also investigated.

RESULTS

Infants demonstrated increased risk of an ED visit with exposure to all heat definitions. The 3-day minimum temperature 99th percentile definition had the highest adjusted odds ratio (AOR: 1.14; 95% CI: 1.05-1.23) for the total population. Term infants were more affected by some heat waves than preterm infants. Effect modification was additionally identified, such as by maternal education.

DISCUSSION

This study provides insight on the heat wave definitions that lead to adverse health outcomes and the identification of the most susceptible infants to these impacts, which has implications on heat-related interventions.

Health equity in pediatrics: Current concepts for the care of children in the 21st century (Dis Mon)

This is an analysis of important aspects of health equity in caring for children and adolescents written by a multidisciplinary team from different medical centers. In this discussion for clinicians, we look at definitions of pediatric health equity and the enormous impact of social determinants of health in this area. Factors involved with pediatric healthcare disparities that are considered include race, ethnicity, gender, age, poverty, socioeconomic status, LGBT status, living in rural communities, housing instability, food insecurity, access to transportation, availability of healthcare professionals, the status of education, and employment as well as immigration. Additional issues involved with health equity in pediatrics that are reviewed will include the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, behavioral health concepts, and the negative health effects of climate change. Recommendations that are presented include reflection of one's own attitudes on as well as an understanding of these topics, consideration of the role of various healthcare providers (i.e., community health workers, peer health navigators, others), the impact of behavioral health integration, and the need for well-conceived curricula as well as multi-faceted training programs in pediatric health equity at the undergraduate and postgraduate medical education levels. Furthermore, ongoing research in pediatric health equity is needed to scrutinize current concepts and stimulate the development of ideas with an ever-greater positive influence on the health of our beloved children. Clinicians caring for children can serve as champions for the optimal health of children and their families; in addition, these healthcare professionals are uniquely positioned in their daily work to understand the drivers of health inequities and to be advocates for optimal health equity in the 21st century for all children and adolescents.

Carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risk assessment of consuming metal-laden wild mushrooms in Nigeria: Analyses from field based and systematic review studies

This study investigated the potential health risk associated with the consumption of metal-laden mushrooms in Nigeria. Concentrations of Pb, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Zn and Al in wild mushrooms collected from the Nigerian environment were measured using atomic absorption spectrometer. Also, systematic analysis of articles on metal accumulation in mushrooms from Nigeria were obtained from scientific databases. Using hazard model indices, the metal concentration in mushrooms were evaluated for their potential carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic health risk when consumed by adults and children. Zn and Cd, respectively, had the highest and lowest mean concentrations (mg kg-1) in the analysed mushrooms from the field study, while Fe and Co, respectively, had the highest and lowest mean concentrations (mg kg-1) in the systematically reviewed articles. In the field study, the percentage distribution of THQ of the heavy metals greater than 1 was 0% and 42.85% for adults and children respectively. While for the systematic study, 30% and 50% of the heavy metals for adults and children respectively exceeded the limit of 1. The hazard indices obtained from both the systematic and field studies for both age groups were all >1, indicating significant health risk. The findings from both the systematic and field studies revealed that consuming metal-laden mushrooms by adults and children increases the carcinogenic risk to Cd, Cr, and Ni since they exceeded the acceptable limit of 1E-04 stated by USEPA guideline. Based on the findings from the systematic and field studies, it suggests that consuming mushrooms collected from metal polluted substrates increases carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic health risk among Nigerians.

Disaster Evacuation for Home-Based Patients with Special Healthcare Needs: A Cross-Sectional Study

Recent super-typhoons and torrential rains triggered by global warming have had disproportionately large effects on medically vulnerable people in Japan. This study aimed to identify factors associated with intention to evacuate to the nearest public shelter among family caregivers of pediatric patients receiving home medical care. The study included family caregivers of these patients from the Department of Pediatrics, Fukuoka University Hospital, Japan, including family caregivers of young adults with special healthcare needs. An original questionnaire was prepared drawing on previous studies and used for an interview survey. Overall, 57 individuals provided valid data and were included in the analysis. Factors associated with evacuation intention were non-use of a home ventilator (odds ratio [OR] 3.99, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.13-14.03) and not having made arrangements to use a non-public shelter (OR 7.29 95% CI: 1.62-32.88). This means that those who use mechanical ventilation or have secured alternative places to go if they need to evacuate their homes may not use the nearest public shelter in a disaster. We recommend that policy makers consider the use of mechanical ventilation and the availability of non-public shelters as predictors of evacuation behavior when considering disaster preparedness for these patients.

Impacts of climate change and environmental degradation on children in Malaysia

The impacts of climate change and degradation are increasingly felt in Malaysia. While everyone is vulnerable to these impacts, the health and wellbeing of children are disproportionately affected. We carried out a study composed of two major components. The first component is an environmental epidemiology study comprised of three sub-studies: (i) a global climate model (GCM) simulating specific health-sector climate indices; (ii) a time-series study to estimate the risk of childhood respiratory disease attributable to ambient air pollution; and (iii) a case-crossover study to identify the association between haze and under-five mortality in Malaysia. The GCM found that Malaysia has been experiencing increasing rainfall intensity over the years, leading to increased incidences of other weather-related events. The time-series study revealed that air quality has worsened, while air pollution and haze have been linked to an increased risk of hospitalization for respiratory diseases among children. Although no clear association between haze and under-five mortality was found in the case-crossover study, the lag patterns suggested that health effects could be more acute if haze occurred over a longer duration and at a higher intensity. The second component consists of three community surveys on marginalized children conducted (i) among the island community of Pulau Gaya, Sabah; (ii) among the indigenous Temiar tribe in Pos Kuala Mu, Perak; and (iii) among an urban poor community (B40) in PPR Sg. Bonus, Kuala Lumpur. The community surveys are cross-sectional studies employing a socio-ecological approach using a standardized questionnaire. The community surveys revealed how children adapt to climate change and environmental degradation. An integrated model was established that consolidates our overall research processes and demonstrates the crucial interconnections between environmental challenges exacerbated by climate change. It is recommended that Malaysian schools adopt a climate-smart approach to education to instill awareness of the impending climate change and its cascading impact on children's health from early school age.

How do high ambient temperatures affect infant feeding practices? A prospective cohort study of postpartum women in Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso

OBJECTIVE

To examine the effects of high ambient temperature on infant feeding practices and childcare.

DESIGN

Secondary analysis of quantitative data from a prospective cohort study.

SETTING

Community-based interviews in the commune of Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso. Exclusive breastfeeding is not widely practised in Burkina Faso.

PARTICIPANTS

866 women (1:1 urban:rural) were interviewed over 12 months. Participants were interviewed at three time points: cohort entry (when between 20 weeks' gestation and 22 weeks' postpartum), three and nine months thereafter. Retention at nine-month follow-up was 90%. Our secondary analysis focused on postpartum women (n=857).

EXPOSURE

Daily mean temperature (°C) measured at one weather station in Bobo-Dioulasso. Meteorological data were obtained from publicly available archives (TuTiempo.net).

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Self-reported time spent breastfeeding (minutes/day), exclusive breastfeeding of infants under 6 months (no fluids other than breast milk provided in past 24 hours), supplementary feeding of infants aged 6-12 months (any fluid other than breast milk provided in past 24 hours), time spent caring for children (minutes/day).

RESULTS

The population experienced year-round high temperatures (daily mean temperature range=22.6°C-33.7°C). Breastfeeding decreased by 2.3 minutes/day (95% CI -4.6 to 0.04, p=0.05), and childcare increased by 0.6 minutes/day (0.06 to 1.2, p=0.03), per 1°C increase in same-day mean temperature. Temperature interacted with infant age to affect breastfeeding duration (p=0.02), with a stronger (negative) association between temperature and breastfeeding as infants aged (0-57 weeks). Odds of exclusive breastfeeding very young infants (0-3 months) tended to decrease as temperature increased (OR=0.88, 0.75 to 1.02, p=0.09). There was no association between temperature and exclusive breastfeeding at 3-6 months or supplementary feeding (6-12 months).

CONCLUSIONS

Women spent considerably less time breastfeeding (~25 minutes/day) during the hottest, compared with coolest, times of the year. Climate change adaptation plans for health should include advice to breastfeeding mothers during periods of high temperature.

Warm Season and Emergency Department Visits to U.S. Children's Hospitals

BACKGROUND

Extreme heat exposures are increasing with climate change. Health effects are well documented in adults, but the risks to children are not well characterized.

OBJECTIVES

We estimated the association between warm season (May to September) temperatures and cause-specific emergency department (ED) visits among U.S. children and adolescents.

METHODS

This multicenter time-series study leveraged administrative data on 3.8  million ED visits by children and adolescents ≤ 18  years of age to the EDs of 47 U.S. children's hospitals from May to September from 2016 to 2018. Daily maximum ambient temperature was estimated in the county of the hospital using a spatiotemporal model. We used distributed-lag nonlinear models with a quasi-Poisson distribution to estimate the association between daily maximum temperature and the relative risk (RR) of ED visits, adjusting for temporal trends. We then used a random-effects meta-analytic model to estimate the overall cumulative association.

RESULTS

Extreme heat was associated with an RR of all-cause ED visits of 1.17 (95% CI: 1.12, 1.21) relative to hospital-specific minimum morbidity temperature. Associations were more pronounced for ED visits due to heat-related illness including dehydration and electrolyte disorders (RR = 1.83; 95% CI: 1.31, 2.57), bacterial enteritis (1.35; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.79), and otitis media and externa (1.30; 95% CI: 1.11, 1.52). Taken together, temperatures above the minimum morbidity temperature accounted for an estimated 11.8% [95% empirical 95% confidence interval (eCI): 9.9%, 13.3%] of warm season ED visits for any cause and 31.0% (95% eCI: 17.9%, 36.5%) of ED visits for heat-related illnesses.

CONCLUSION

During the warm season, days with higher temperatures were associated with higher rates of visits to children's hospital EDs. Higher ambient temperatures may contribute to a significant proportion of ED visits among U.S. children and adolescents. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP8083.

Social disparities in neighborhood heat in the Northeast United States

Upward trends in ground-level warming are expected to intensify, affecting the health of human populations. Specific to the United States, the Northeast (NE) region is one of the most vulnerable to these warming trends. Previous research has found social disparities in the distribution of heat, while recent studies have examined associations between metropolitan racial/ethnic segregation and heat exposures. We advance upon previous research by including a novel measure of neighborhood-level racial/ethnic diversity in our examination of social inequalities in heat for NE neighborhoods (census tracts). We paired data derived from the United States Geological Survey on mean land surface temperature (LST) for the summer months of 2013-2017 with sociodemographic data from the American Community Survey (5-year estimates, 2013-2017). We use multivariable generalized estimating equations (GEEs) that adjust for geographic clustering. Findings reveal heat exposure disparities across NE neighborhoods. Neighborhoods with higher proportions of racial/ethnic minorities, people of lower socioeconomic status, households without access to an automobile, and greater diversity experience higher temperatures. Diversity was more strongly related to increased heat in neighborhoods with lower Latinx and lower Black composition suggesting that neighborhood homogeneity confers a differentially greater cooling effect based on higher White composition. The social groups that carry the unequal thermal burdens are also those who are most vulnerable. Interventions to reduce heat risks in the NE should therefore prioritize reducing the burden on historically disadvantaged communities.

Climate Change and State of the Science for Children's Health and Environmental Health Equity

INTRODUCTION

Climate change is impacting the physical and mental health of children and families. This is a state of the science update regarding the impacts of climate change for pediatric-focused health care providers and advanced practice registered nurses.

METHOD

Using an equity lens, the authors reviewed and synthesized current literature regarding the adverse impacts of climate change.

RESULTS

The poor and communities of color are disproportionately impacted by climate change. Physical health impacts include increased vector and water-born infectious diseases, increases in asthma and respiratory infections, and undernutrition. Social disruptions lead to human trafficking. Climate change is associated with mental health concerns, including anxiety and posttraumatic stress after natural disasters.

DISCUSSION

As clinicians, pediatric-focused providers, and advanced practice registered nurses should use multipronged and interdisciplinary approaches to address or prevent the adverse impacts of climate change. Advocacy at all government levels is necessary to safeguard children and vulnerable populations.

Disaster Risk Reduction Education: Tensions and Connections with Sustainable Development Goals

In the last decades, environmental risks and threats have increased human exposure to natural hazards, often affecting the quality of life, especially for vulnerable groups. This article explores the tensions and connections within educational research concerning disaster risk reduction (DRRE) in relation to Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Twenty-seven articles published between 2014 and 2020 in various geographic regions regarding disaster risk reduction (DRR) were reviewed, finding that (a) the participation of children, youth, families, and the community is central; (b) non-formal and informal education are equally as relevant as formal education; (c) DRR initiatives can favor broader objectives, such as reducing poverty or advancing towards sustainable communities; and (d) achieving community resilience in the face of socio-natural disasters requires local voices for the design, implementation, and scaling of strategies. However, certain tensions were also found due to the lack of emphasis on the crucial areas of SDGs, which are related to a comprehensive notion of well-being and health education, including mental health and a gender approach, the limited mitigation of risk aggravating factors arising from extreme poverty and the climate crisis, the disconnection between modern and ancestral knowledge, the “top-down” versus “bottom-up” approach in the generation of local solutions, the role of education on disaster risk reduction as a risk mitigation factor, and the requirements to adjust the curriculum synchronously to global environmental needs, are all discussed, thus highlighting and encouraging the urgent cultural changes needed in the Anthropocene era that can be triggered through disaster risk reduction education.

Climate Change, Food Supply, and Dietary Guidelines

Food production is affected by climate change, and, in turn, food production is responsible for 20-30% of greenhouse gases. The food system must increase output as the population increases and must meet nutrition and health needs while simultaneously assisting in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. Good nutrition is important for combatting infection, reducing child mortality, and controlling obesity and chronic disease throughout the life course. Dietary guidelines provide advice for a healthy diet, and the main principles are now well established and compatible with sustainable development. Climate change will have a significant effect on food supply; however, with political commitment and substantial investment, projected improvements will be sufficient to provide food for the healthy diets needed to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. Some changes will need to be made to food production, nutrient content will need monitoring, and more equitable distribution is required to meet the dietary guidelines. Increased breastfeeding rates will improve infant and adult health while helping to reduce greenhouse gases.

Climate change and pediatric skin health

Children are known to disproportionately bear the health impacts of climate change, particularly children living in impoverished areas. Owing to their developing physiology and immature metabolism, distinct exposure behaviors, and reliance on adults for care and protection, children are uniquely susceptible to the adverse effects of our warming planet. Herein, we summarize the known impacts of climate change on pediatric skin health, including its effects on atopic dermatitis, vector-borne and other infectious diseases, nutritional deficiencies, and psychodermatoses.

Temperature and hand, foot and mouth disease in California: An exploratory analysis of emergency department visits by season, 2005-2013

BACKGROUND

For the past decade, hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD), caused by entero and coxsackie viruses, has been spreading in Asia, particularly among children, overloading healthcare settings and creating economic hardships for parents. Recent studies have found meteorological factors, such as temperature, are associated with HFMD in Asia. However, few studies have explored the relationship in the United States, although HFMD cases have steadily increased recently. As concerns of climate change grow, we explored the association between temperature and HFMD admissions to the Emergency Department (ED) in California.

METHODS

Weekly counts of HFMD for 16 California climate zones were collected from 2005 to 2013. We calculated weekly temperature for each climate zone using an inverse distance-weighting method. For each climate zone stratified by season, we conducted a time-series using Poisson regression models. We adjusted models for weekly averaged relative humidity, average number of HFMD cases in previous weeks and long-term temporal trends. Climate zone estimates were combined to obtain an overall seasonal estimate. We attempted stratified analyses by region, race/ethnicity, and sex to identify sensitive subpopulations.

RESULTS

Risk of ED visits for HFMD per 1 °F increase in mean temperature during the same week increased 2.00% (95% confidence intervals 1.15, 2.86%) and 2.35% (1.38, 3.33%) during the warm and cold seasons, respectively. The coastal region showed a higher, though not statistically different, association during the cold season [3.18% (1.99, 4.39)] than the warm season [1.64% (0.47, 2.82)].

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicated an association between temperature and ED visits for HFMD, with variation by season and region. Thus, the causative pathogen's ability to persist in the atmosphere may vary by season. Furthermore, the mild and wet winter in the coastal region of California may contribute to different results than studies in Asia. With the onset of climate change, HFMD cases will likely grow in California, warranting further investigation on this relationship, including new populations at-risk.

The International Society for Children's Health and the Environment Commits to Reduce Its Carbon Footprint to Safeguard Children's Health

The Lancet Countdown and the 2018 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change declared that the worst impacts of climate change are and will continue to be felt disproportionately by children. Children are uniquely vulnerable to the consequences of climate change, including heat stress, food scarcity, increases in pollution and vector-borne diseases, lost family income, displacement, and the trauma of living through a climate-related disaster. These stressors can result in long-lasting physical and mental health sequelae. Based upon these concerns associated with climate change, the International Society for Children's Health and the Environment developed a statement about ways in which the Society could take action to reduce its contribution of greenhouse gas emissions. The objective of this article is to report our Society's plans in hopes that we may stimulate other scientific societies to take action. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP6578.

Climate changes reproductive and children's health: a review of risks, exposures, and impacts

Our climate has significantly changed, exceeding what the world has experienced over the last 650,000 years, and has been cited as the most significant health threat of the twenty-first century. Climate change is impacting health in unprecedented ways. While everyone is vulnerable to the health impacts associated with climate change, children are disproportionately affected because of their physical and cognitive immaturity. Climate change impacts that include rising temperatures, extreme weather, rising sea levels, and increasing carbon dioxide levels are associated with a wide range of health issues in children such as asthma, allergies, vector-borne diseases, malnutrition, low birth weight, and post-traumatic stress disorder. Pediatric health providers play a critical role in advancing the science and translating findings to improve public understanding about the link between climate changes and children's health, and establishing strategies to address these issues. This review will provide an overview of research exploring the impact of climate change on children's health impacts, as well as provide recommendations for pediatric research moving forward.

Assessing the effect of climate factors on childhood diarrhoea burden in Kathmandu, Nepal

INTRODUCTION

This study was undertaken to assess the effect of climate variability on diarrhoeal disease burden among children under 5 years of age living in Kathmandu, Nepal. The researchers sought to predict future risk of childhood diarrhoea under different climate change scenarios to advance the evidence base available to public health decision-makers, and the Nepalese infection control division, in planning for climate impacts.

METHODS

A time series study was conducted using the monthly case count of diarrhoeal disease (2003-2013) among children under 5 years of age living in Kathmandu, Nepal. A quasi Poisson generalised linear equation with distributed lag linear model was fitted to estimate the lagged effect of monthly maximum temperature and rainfall on childhood diarrhoea. The environmental framework of comparative risk assessment was used to assess the environmental burden of diarrhoea within this population.

RESULTS

A total of 219,774 cases of diarrhoeal disease were recorded during the study period with a median value of 1286 cases per month. The results of a regression model revealed that the monthly count of diarrhoea cases increased by 8.1% (RR: 1.081; 95% CI: 1.02-1.14) per 1 °C increase in maximum temperature above the monthly average recorded within that month. Similarly, rainfall was found to have significant effect on the monthly diarrhoea count, with a 0.9% (RR; 1.009; 95% CI: 1.004-1.015) increase in cases for every 10 mm increase in rainfall above the monthly cumulative value recorded within that month. It was estimated that 7.5% (95% CI: 2.2%-12.5%) of the current burden of diarrhoea among children under 5 years of age could be attributed to climatic factors (maximum temperature), and projected that 1357 (UI: 410-2274) additional cases of childhood diarrhoea could be climate attributable by the year 2050 under low-risk scenario (0.9 °C increase in maximum temperature).

CONCLUSION

It is estimated that there exists a significant association (p < 0.05) between childhood diarrhoea and an increase in maximum temperature and rainfall in Kathmandu, Nepal. The findings of this study may inform the conceptualization and design of early warning systems for the prediction and control of childhood diarrhoea, based upon the observed pattern of climate change in Kathmandu.

Climate change and health: Moving from theory to practice

In an Editorial discussing the Special Issue on Climate Change and Health, guest editors Jonathan Patz and Madeleine Thompson summarize key issues in the field and describe the significance of research studies included in the issue.